Sunday, January 30, 2011

A fast forecast.Plus total snowfall map.

A power house snow storm to effect much of the 2/3s part of the CONUS with snow, Ice, Severe thunderstorms, For the local area… The main storm system it’s self will remain well South of the area, however an inverted trof will effect the area… This will be our snow maker along with WAA over riding the colder air..This will help aid in snow forming later tonight and lasting through Monday evening/night….So the snowfall map is going to be the total snowfall from this event…. Again this is not the winter storm it’s self just WAA over riding the cold air and an inverted trof… Main low passes well to our South over IL through this time frame…. Winds will become a problem on Tuesday as the low is well to the South Northeast wind could gusts as high as 25 to 30 MPH at times….Any snow that does fall will be a blowing and drifting problem also…As far as temps go not really cold lows below zero through Midweek with highs in the lower to middle teens… Models do show some warming by Saturday…. Am not going to run with 30s as of right now… Middle to upper 20s look better…. With lows this upcoming weekend warming to the middle to upper teens….No time for a long term forecast tonight…
Here is the total snowfall map...Decide to run with a rather large are of 2 to 4 inches of snow based on models though 1 to 3 was in the thinking.. This way it will cover and small surprises that could happen....Kept the 3 to 6 inches of snow im my far Southern areas per model data.... Green area is 1 to 2 inches my arrow marker decided not to work...

01/28/2011 snow pictures


Friday, January 28, 2011

Info from the NWS....

his info comes from the NWS...
SNOW & FREEZING DRIZZLE TO AFFECT WEST CNTL WI LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.




A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR WEST CNTL WI UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SNOW WILL BEGIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON & CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN 4 & 8 PM CST ACROSS THIS REGION.

ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES IS EXPECTED GENERALLY NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM RUSH CITY.TO NEW RICHMOND.TO EAU CLAIRE. THE HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS WILL BE NEAR RICE LAKE AND LADYSMITH.



THE SNOW SHOULD DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER.AS THE SNOW TAPERS OFF.FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN WEST CNTL WI. ALTHOUGH ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINOR.THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR A FINE GLAZING OF ICE IN SOME LOCATIONS.



BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS OR ICY ROADS THIS EVENING.AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.



WIZ014-015-023>028-290500-

/O.EXB.KMPX.WW.Y.0031.110128T2100Z-110129T0600Z/

POLK-BARRON-ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-CHIPPEWA-EAU CLAIRE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF.AMERY.BALSAM LAKE.RICE LAKE.

BARRON.HUDSON.NEW RICHMOND.RIVER FALLS.PRESCOTT.

MENOMONIE.BOYCEVILLE.DURAND.PEPIN.CHIPPEWA FALLS.

BLOOMER.EAU CLAIRE.ALTOONA

257 PM CST FRI JAN 28 2011



WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT.



THE NATL WEATHER SVC IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE COMBINATION OF SNOW & FREEZING DRIZZLE.WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT.



* TIMING.ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.



* MAIN IMPACT.TOTAL ACCUMULATION FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS IN BARRON.CHIPPEWA.& RUSK COUNTIES.

FREEZING DRIZZLE IS ALSO EXPECTED AFTER THE SNOW DIMINISHES.



* OTHER IMPACTS.REDUCED VISIBILITY & SLICK ROADS.



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS.



A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS & LIMITED VISIBILITIES.& USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.



&&



$$



WIZ016-290500-

/O.CON.KMPX.WW.Y.0031.000000T0000Z-110129T0600Z/

RUSK-

INCLUDING THE CITY OF.LADYSMITH

257 PM CST FRI JAN 28 2011



WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT.



A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT.



* TIMING.ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.



* MAIN IMPACT.TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES. FREEZING DRIZZLE IS ALSO EXPECTED AFTER THE SNOW DIMINISHES.



* OTHER IMPACTS.REDUCED VISIBILITY & SLICK ROADS.



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS.



A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS & LIMITED VISIBILITIES.& USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.



&&



$$

FRANKS

No short term forecasts yet.

There will not be any short term forecast yet... We have having some computer issues with a some of our programs... Radar is working fine... Our other real time data is down at this time.... We are working on this to resolve the problem..... We are sorry for this problem.... Until we can can get this fix see  Derek's blog for short term updates... Link below.... Thanks for your understanding in this matter....
http://nwwisconsinweather.blogspot.com/
For those of you in Northern WI see Tim's blog for info up in thoses areas... Link below...\
http://timsweatherblog.blogspot.com/

Thursday, January 27, 2011

The forecast for Western/Northwestern WI, along with the froecasted snowfall map.

Forecast concerns…. Clipper like system pulling out of the area today brought a widespread 1 to almost 3 inches of snow through a good part of the FA…. Another system one track for tomorrow into tomorrow evening which should bring another 1 to 3 inches for most of the area… See forecasted snowfall map for where that may occur…..Temps are going to be tricky today through the weekend, before colder air flows into the area for the end of the weekend into next week and into the longer term….


***CURRENT CONDTIONS***

As of 10 AM skies are cloudy… Temps in the lower to middle 20s… Winds are light out of the North/Northwest….. Fog is being reported at many of the stations…..

***FORECAST DISCUSSION***

This morning’s charts shows a 1007 MB low pressure system centered over the Northern part of Lake Superior… With a cold front reaching Westwards along the MN/Canada border..Front then extends Northwest into Canada to a low pressure system in Northeastern British Columbia Canada…. Western CONSUS weather is being controlled be a rather large ridge of high pressure at the SFC and throughout the upper levels… Meanwhile the 982 MB low pressure is centered off the Coast of ME… A weak area of low pressure system is found over Eastern AR/Western TN, with a cold front reaching Southwest through Southern AR back into TX…..

Cold front to our North is forecasted to move into the area later tonight… Meanwhile the low over British Columbia is forecasted to move into Northern Alberta…Low is forecasted to track Southeast from there into Northwestern MN then down through Western WI then over to Southern MI/Northern IN… Will keep flurries/mist going today through tonight with areas of fog possible also.. Then bring in snow for Friday will hold onto snow for Friday night.. Then flurries for Saturday as a trough swings South/Southwest into the area…Meanwhile on Saturday a rather large 1040 MB high pressure system will build South into the area for Sunday…Sunday night/Monday’s time frame models have really back down a winter storm that was forecasted to have little effects on the areas as far as snow goes, now we see more of a trough over Western MN that will work it’s way Eastwards… However a 1008 MB low pressure is forecasted to form in the TX panhandle … This is forecasted to lift Northeast towards East Central IL and Western IN.. Meantime 1044 High pressure is forecasted to drop into MT then builds into the FA for Tuesday/Wednesday…

***LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION Thursday THE 3RD THROUGH FRIDAY THE 11TH***

Next shot of light snow brushes the are on the 3rd as an area of low pressure remains well North of the of the FA… Thinking right now is my Northeastern areas will have a better chance at light snow then the rest of the FA… Once again we see the upper level ridge take control of the Western CONUS after a brief cool down in them areas…. Out East upper level trough still holds strong.. Will bring in another shot of light snow for the 4th as a short-wave /WAA starts to kick in will hold onto the 6th as a cold front is forecasted to move Southeast into the area… Another short-wave/clipper like system moves in for the 8th .. So to recap the…. No big snow storms as far as the eye can see, just off and on light snow through this time frame… Would think by going past trends that each system could bring 1 to 3 inches of snow….Remains to be seen however the way most of this Jan has been going really see reason to argue with that…..Looking at the temps…. We start the cycle on the cold side…. We do see a nice warm up coming in for the 5th temps could be getting closer to 30 by then…. That will be short lived as more cold air moves South into the area on the 7th on the 8th /9th Models are not in really good agreement on the Arctic air… GFS slams us hard with it the other models are not as cold… GFS keeps the Arctic air in place right through the end of the forecast cycle…If GFS is right this could be the coldest air of the winter…. I’m not buying into the ATTM.. 1 to far out in time.. 2. GFS track record this has not been that good….

***YOUR FORECAST***

Rest of today…. Mostly cloudy flurries ending, highs in the 20s…Winds Northwest around 5 MPH….

Tonight… Mostly cloudy with flurries… Lows around 15, winds Northwest around 5 MPH.

Friday….Snow likely highs in the 20s….South/Southeast winds 5 to 10 MPH.

Friday Night…. Small chance of light snow/flurries… Lows upper teens to lower 20s… Winds Northwest around 5 to 10 MPH.

Saturday… A few flurries highs falling from the 20s into the teens throughout the afternoon….

Saturday Night… Mostly cloudy lows around 5….

Sunday… Mostly cloudy highs around 15…

Sunday Night…. Slight chance of light snow/flurries lows around 0

Monday…. Slight chance of light snow/flurries… Highs near 10.. Lows around -5

Tuesday through Wednesday… Partly to mostly sunny Highs around 10 Lows around -5….

***NOW FOR YOU FORECASTED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING***

Wednesday, January 26, 2011

Mod to Heavy snow...

Mod. to heavy snow still falling here at the office.... Looks like a good 1.75 inches since it started about 8-9 tonight...Forecast is right on track will leave it stand,forecast snowfall amounts should play out rather well also,so no chance there either.

Forecast for Western/Northwestern WI plus forecasted snowfall amounts map.

Forecast problems… Snow today through Thursday… Then again on Friday… Then temps for the weekend…No big snow storms, no big thaws, no big long lasting Arctic blasts in the short term through long term forecast as of right now...Temps will run below normals after this weekend throughout the middle to long term forecast, with near norms for precip.


***CURRENT CONDITIONS***

As of 12 PM skies are mostly cloudy, Osceola reporting mostly sunny, Confirmed by satellite…Any areas that do get some peaks of sun enjoy it cause the clouds will fill back in…

Temps are in the lower 20s… Winds light to calm… Some stations reporting some light snow/flurries….

***FORECAST DISCUSSION***

Model today have really not been in agreement past on the track of a low pressure system for tonight/Tomorrow…

All model have shifted the low more on a Westerly track ….Also noted is a huge difference in the models for the long term forecast…..Will get to that in a few… Back tracking to today through Friday……ECWMF/NAM/GFS/GEM have shifted the track of a low pressure system more Westerly… This will lead to a better chance of snow through my Northern/Eastern areas.. This would be the areas that has the best forcing and lift.. This area would have the best chance at seeing 1 to 3 inches of snow….. The rest of the FA could see a dusting to 1 or maybe two inches of snow….. For later tonight/tomorrow….

Today we will see a weak frontal boundary slid to the South this should end the flurries This afternoon…. Still will keep cloudy skies going as there is an inversion overheard along with a very weak Northwesterly flow….We may see a few breaks in here and there is the cloud cover, however any breaks that do occur shall fill back in rather fast…Looking at the Vis Satellite we see a mostly cloudy skies throughout the FA some holes in the cloud deck are noted..Looking upstream in MN more cloudy skies…. So the rule to today is run with mostly cloudy skies this will cover any breaks in the clouds verses running with partly cloudy skies…. Temps aren’t going to really go much higher than they are right now….Low pressure is forecasted to move Southeast through Eastern MN/far Western WI down toward the EAU area….Snow will spread into the FA tonight and last through early morning hrs on Thursday… See map below for forecasted snowfall amounts….

Not so sure if I agree with the temps tomorrow on the model guidance as they have temps in the upper 20s… Do to the forecasted cloud cover that remains to be seen…. Will run with temps in the lower to upper 20s across the FA warmer reading found in my Southern zones cooler temps found in my Central and Northern areas….. There are some indications of a stronger low pressure system for Friday/Friday night’s time frame…. If this does pan out there could be an area of 4 to 6 inches of snow mainly in my Northern areas… While my Southern areas see 1 to 2 inches…. Won’t worry about this as of right now, as forecasting models are having a big disagreement on this… Now what to do with temps this weekend… On Saturday some models keep the warm air going while others have temps falling…. I have decided to run with the falling temps in the afternoon….As a cold front is forecasted to push into and through the area…..So with lows forecasted to be in the middle 20s Friday night going to run with highs in the middle 20s then drop them through the day…..Only seem reasonable…. This is really not a push of Arctic air, more so a push of Polar air… So temps won’t be even close to cold as we had this past weekend….. Lows will fall to around -5 with highs in the lower teens above zero….From Sunday through Tuesday……. Also looking dry through this time frame… Though ECWMF model is showing some snow moving in…. Though I should trust this model as it has a remarkable track record this winter… Other models are not showing this with the colder air in place… So will run with dry for now… Will revisit this during the upcoming weekend……

***LONGER TERM FORECAST.FEB 3RD THROUGH FEB 11TH ***

The 3rd we start off dry, however the RH shows increasing clouds as a short-wave moves along the MN/ Canada border…With a chance of snow later in the day… As of right now looks like my Northern areas as the best chance at seeing some accumulations…. The 4th will hold on to the snow chances though it should be a light snowfall as low pressure slips South into Eastern WI/Western MI… The 4th we will see light snow/flurries come to an end throughout the FA.. We see yet another clipper like system diving South towards the FA for later Saturday night into Sunday’s time frame… Most of the dynamics should remain well North of the FA there will still be a shot of light snow.. Will hold that through early Monday the 7th Then high pressure builds into the area until the 10th.. We see a another clipper type system moving into Southern MN by then so the chance of snow enters the forecast once again.. The track of this low would but my Central and Northern areas in the best chance to see accumulating snows… While the rest of the area should see light snows…By the 11th snow pushes East of the FA… Still will keep snow alive in my Far Northern area of the Lake Superior snow belts..

As far as temps go through this whole time frame temps will average below normal .. There may be a shot of Arctic air around the 8th…. Still nothing like we went through…..

***NOW YOUR FORECAST***

Rest of today…. Mostly cloudy flurries ending, highs lower to middle 20s…Winds west around 5 MPH….

Tonight… Snow likely see map below for snowfall amounts… Lows around 15, winds South/Southwest around 5 MPH.

Thursday…. Mostly cloudy with light snow/flurries ending… Highs in the 20s… Winds Northwest around 5 PMH.

Thursday Night…. Small chance of light snow/flurries… Lows around 15.. Winds Northwest light…

Friday….Small chance of light snow highs in the 20….

Friday Night…. Small chance of light snow/flurries… Lows in the 20s….

Saturday… A few flurries highs falling from the 20s into the teens throughout the afternoon….

Saturday Night… Mostly cloudy lows around 5….

Sunday through Tuesday…. Partly cloudy with highs in the middle teens with lows around -5…. Could see more clouds from time to time also….

***FORECASTED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS***

Should be up to an inch not and inch....

Tuesday, January 25, 2011

Some radar grabs from FL tonight

Florida gets rocked by severe thunderstorms tonight…. Along with reported tornadoes.. So I did some radar grabs from different views we use at The Weather Center…. On the radar grabs we did mark with arrows where the squall line is….


What is really interesting on the Spectrum Width image along with the Base vol. and Storm Rel…One can clearly see the Shear Axis. Change of winds along the squall line… Click on images for bigger size… You may also see some areas of rotation… This will be discussed at another time…First image is like the one everyone sees on TV or the internet.. Base Reelfectivity...


Image below is from the Base Velocity....
Image below is from the Storm Reletive.

Last one is off the Spectrum Width... Most people don't see this image, but it is a rather good tool to use.. (had to use fron as I didn't have enough room for all the words.)

Friday, January 21, 2011

Lows so far this morning

Lows here at The Weather Center did dropped to -35.7
Here are some lows from around the FA so fas from the NWS Some of these temps did go down a degree or two  see the 8AM post below.... Info below was reported @ 7 AM
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS


SUPERIOR ARPT CLEAR -24 -29 76 MISG 30.10S

ASHLAND CLOUDY -16 -20 82 SW7 30.07S WCI -32

HAYWARD CLEAR -31 32 100 CALM 30.03F

SIREN PTCLDY -29 -36 71 CALM 30.08S

RICE LAKE CLEAR -30 -37 71 CALM 30.06F

LADYSMITH CLEAR -24 -28 78 NW3 30.04F

EAU CLAIRE PTCLDY -24 -27 83 W3 30.08S

NEW RICHMOND CLEAR -27 -33 76 CALM 30.09S

OSCEOLA CLEAR -26 -33 68 CALM 30.12F

Coldest night so far

Temps here right now at 8 AM -33.5 below...
HCITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS


SUPERIOR ARPT CLEAR -26 -33 68 MISG 30.08F

ASHLAND PTCLDY -18 -22 82 SW5 30.07S WCI -31

HAYWARD PTCLDY -32 32 100 CALM 30.02F

SIREN CLEAR -29 -36 69 CALM 30.08S

RICE LAKE CLEAR -29 -36 70 CALM 30.07R

LADYSMITH PTCLDY -24 -29 78 CALM 30.04S

EAU CLAIRE PTCLDY -22 -26 82 CALM 30.09R FOG

NEW RICHMOND CLEAR -28 -35 72 CALM 30.08F

OSCEOLA FLURRIES -27 -35 68 CALM 30.12S

ere are some other readings from the NWS

Current conditions as of 1 AM this Friday morning

Temps have been dropping like a rock throughout the night...See other posts below to see the trend....
This info come from the NWS.....
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS


SUPERIOR ARPT PTCLDY -15 -22 70 MISG 30.11S

ASHLAND PTCLDY -11 -15 82 W6 30.06R WCI -25

HAYWARD PTCLDY -16 -21 78 VRB3 30.04R

SIREN PTCLDY -17 -22 76 W5 30.10S WCI -29

RICE LAKE PTCLDY -12 -18 73 W3 30.07S

LADYSMITH PTCLDY -12 -18 76 NW6 30.03S WCI -26

EAU CLAIRE PTCLDY -14 -19 79 W3 30.08R

NEW RICHMOND PTCLDY -13 -19 75 NW3 30.10F

OSCEOLA CLEAR -15 -20 76 CALM 30.14F

$$



Here at the office we are down to -17.6.

Current conditions @ 12 AM

Again this data comes from the NWS.....
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS


SUPERIOR ARPT PTCLDY -13 -22 64 MISG 30.11S

ASHLAND PTCLDY -9 -14 78 W7 30.05F WCI -24

6HR MIN TEMP: -9; 6HR MAX TEMP: 1; 6HR PCP: TRACE;



HAYWARD PTCLDY -15 -20 78 CALM 30.03S

6HR MIN TEMP: -16; 6HR MAX TEMP: -2;



SIREN PTCLDY -15 -20 77 W5 30.10S WCI -28

RICE LAKE PTCLDY -10 -17 71 NW6 30.07S WCI -24

LADYSMITH PTCLDY -10 -16 73 NW8 30.03S WCI -26

EAU CLAIRE PTCLDY -10 -17 71 NW3 30.07S

6HR MIN TEMP: -12; 6HR MAX TEMP: 1;



NEW RICHMOND PTCLDY -13 -19 75 W6 30.11R WCI -27

OSCEOLA PTCLDY -11 -18 70 W3 30
Here at the office we have -16.4..

Thursday, January 20, 2011

Current Conditions as of 11 PM

From the NWS
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS


SUPERIOR ARPT PTCLDY -11 -20 64 MISG 30.12R

ASHLAND PTCLDY -6 -12 75 NW6 30.06R WCI -19

HAYWARD PTCLDY -13 -19 75 CALM 30.03R

SIREN PTCLDY -17 -22 78 W6 30.10S WCI -31

RICE LAKE PTCLDY -9 -16 70 NW7 30.07R WCI -24

LADYSMITH PTCLDY -9 -16 71 NW9 30.03R WCI -26

EAU CLAIRE PTCLDY -7 -16 65 CALM 30.07R

NEW RICHMOND PTCLDY -11 -18 71 NW7 30.10R WCI -26

OSCEOLA PTCLDY -9 -18 64 NW3 30.14R

$$

Here at the office its -15.1 right now.

Current Conditions as of 10 PM

Here is the 10 PM SFC OBS from the NWS....
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS


SUPERIOR ARPT PTCLDY -9 -18 64 MISG 30.11R

ASHLAND CLOUDY -3 -10 72 NW8 30.05R HAZE WCI -18

HAYWARD PTCLDY -10 -16 74 CALM 30.02S

SIREN PTCLDY -10 -17 70 NW6 30.10R WCI -23

RICE LAKE PTCLDY -7 -15 69 NW3 30.06S

LADYSMITH CLEAR -6 -14 68 NW9 30.02R WCI -23

EAU CLAIRE PTCLDY -5 -15 62 NW6 30.06R WCI -18

NEW RICHMOND PTCLDY -8 -16 70 W7 30.09S WCI -23

OSCEOLA PTCLDY -9 -17 70 W6 30.13R WCI -23

Here at the office it down to -13.3... Picture below is from just one of our weather Instruments and we have 4 and they all read the same...

Current Conditions as of 9 PM

Current conditions as of 9PM this info comes from the NWS...
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS


SUPERIOR ARPT PTCLDY -8 -18 59 MISG 30.10S

ASHLAND CLOUDY -2 -8 76 NW12G20 30.05R HAZE WCI -20

HAYWARD CLEAR -9 -15 75 CALM 30.02S

SIREN PTCLDY -11 -18 71 NW7 30.09R WCI -26

RICE LAKE PTCLDY -5 -14 65 NW7 30.05S WCI -19

LADYSMITH CLEAR -4 -13 66 NW12 30.01R WCI -22

EAU CLAIRE CLEAR -5 -15 62 NW7 30.05R WCI -19

NEW RICHMOND PTCLDY -7 -14 70 W9 30.09R WCI -24

OSCEOLA PTCLDY -8 -15 71 W8 30.13R WCI -23

$$

Here at the office we are still sitting at -12...
Here is the upper Midwest SFC OBS.... As you can see some WAA starting to kick in over SD, IA this warmer air is forecasted to lift Northeast throughout the night... Will it make this far to save us from really dropping... Time will tell.

Today was not the coldest day so far this winter for the FA see below

Wow so many emails just came into the office over the last ½ hr asking is this the coldest air so far this winter?


The answer to this is easy…NO this is not the coldest air so far this winter… How people forget back in Dec around the 13th /14 we had a high of -3 here at the office and the Airport reported a high of -1 Highs stayed below zero for most of the forecast area….. Lows fell to -24 to -20 throughout much of the forecast area……. The thing about today is the wind which made it feel colder then it really was… Sure highs been falling since early this morning to -5 at 5:11 PM….Now tonight we have a chance at seeing the coldest low so far this winter… With temps forecasted to fall from -30 to -20 throughout the FA…

Highs are forecasted to be slightly above zero tomorrow…..So with that said this is not the coldest we have seen during the daytime hours…. Tonight we could see our coldest night time lows…Temps would have to get to at least – 21 for most areas and some will have to drop to at least -25…. There is a good chance at this…. Again it was the wind chills today that made it feel like the coldest air thus far this winter… In real it not…. Not sure where everyone got that info from….

Fast forecast for Western/Northwestern WI

Arctic cold front is pushing its way through the FA… Temps may raise a few degrees, however do suspect they will start to fall this afternoon… Wind will start to pick up out of the North/Northwest if they haven’t already at your location. Should be around 10 to 20 MPH… Tonight is the main story very cold temps and dangerous wind chill values are excepted…. Temps could easy fall to -30 to -20 across the FA with wind chill readings from – 50 to -30….. This will be dependant on if the clouds can stay out of the area tonight from a short wave moving in…. Along with winds remaining out of the North/Northwest most of the night…. If winds do switch and clouds move in faster than thinking temps will be somewhat warmer… Still nevertheless cold…. Back in Dec we had a reading of -24 below here at the office, with – 20 below temps throughout much of the FA with a few readings -25 below… Those reading do have a good chance at falling by the wayside tonight… Again if winds switch and clouds move in faster them temps will remain safe, as WAA could kick in during the overnight time hrs after 1 or 2 AM… Something we will have to watch…This will not be a long last Arctic blast.. By the weekend temps warm back up to the lower teens…. By Monday lower 20s…. As forecast as it middle 20s by midweek of next week….


Still see no reason to change ongoing forecast…. Longer term still looks on track as models have been in very good agreement in the longer term various short term and midterm…


So no big snowstorms as of yet just a few weak short waves from time to time that could produce 1 to 3 inches of snow off and on…. Don’t think we will see LES this far South this time around as we have seen over the last few days which is interesting… ½ to around an inch as falling in Barron, and Rusk Counties from LES and of coarse points Northwards…. No long lasting Arctic outbreaks either…. No big thaws in the forecast either… Looking at the CPC 6 to 14 day outlooks… Temps will average to near to slightly below norms with precip near to slightly below norms…. So ongoing longer term forecast is great shape and won’t change it…..

Will update forecast either later today or tomorrow along with extending the longer term to meet the Lorng term forecast model dates and times…..

Wednesday, January 19, 2011

Ongoing forecast will stand

See no reason to change the ongoing forecast below….Also Confidence levels are up in the longer term forecast… Models have been in very good agreement in the long term forecast  the past 3 days right though the end of the month…. Will have temps in the lower to middle 20s throughout much of next week…. Still no thaw in sight for the FA, no big snowstorms in sight either…. So forecast will stand as is…. See below for info...

Monday, January 17, 2011

Forecast for Western/Northwestern WI

Not to much to talk about in short term and middle term forecast cycle…Arctic air will set up camp once again over the FA….This won’t be the coldest we see so far..Back in Dec we dipped to -24 here at the office and the Rice Lake airport reported -20…. That was the rule back then… This time around them temps may fall by the way side… More on this below…


***CURRENT CONDITIONS***

As of 4 PM Skies are cloudy with some flurries/FRZ mist/fog… Temps are in the upper teens to lower 20s Winds for the most part are light to calm…

***FORECAST DISSCUSION &ANALYSIS***

SFC analysis we find a 999 MB low pressure system over Northwestern IA and a week 1003 MB just North of Northeastern MN more like a short wave…Meantime we find a Arctic high of 1025 MBS over the Northwestern part of Alberta Canada….We also find a few short waves scattered throughout the SD, ND,MN, and North.. These short waves are rather weak and not much in the way of moisture with them/for them to work with so will run with flurries through the rest of today and tonight…. High pressure builds into the area for Tuesday and much of Wednesday….Next chance of flurries comes in Wednesday night as an Arctic cold front slams into and through the FA…. Will clear skies out Thursday and keep them that way through Friday night…. Models showing another system trying to move towards the area, however attm will run with cloudy skies as the cold air will be moisture starved. Thursday night/Friday morning cold end up be the coldest air thus far this winter… If we can keep clear skies toward sunrise temps could easy fall to -30 to -20 below throughout the FA,even colder in our colder spots. If skies become partly cloudy this will hold temps up in the middle - teens below. Once again this will all be dependant on if the system can spread clouds in at a faster timing…..

***LONG RANGE FORECAST DISSCUSION.SUNDAY THE 23RD THROUGH FEB 2ND***

First part of this time frame a little tricky as far as temps go. Northwesterly flow is still forecast late this weekend, however ECMWF and GFS shows a upper level ridge building in the Western states….This does have signs of trying to reach our area…. However like a few time this winter we have seen this and the real warmth remains well to our West…. Thinking is this could very well happen again… Next chance of snow appears to come in around Monday the 24/Tuesday the 25 time frame… Mean while the upper level ridge pushes temps to near if not above 30 in far Western SD and parts of Western ND..By later in the day on the 26 a 1025 MB high pressure slips into ND…. There will still be some short waves to ride Southeast on the Northwesterly flow aloft over our FA… So will keep a chance of light snow through Wednesday morning..Upper level ridge builds more Eastwards on Thursday the 27th Almost knocking on Southwestern part of MN’S door… Will bring in another chance of light snow come Friday the 28th Temps by Jan 29th will warm into the 30s across MN… Thinking is they will hold in the upper 20s across our FA… Upper level ridge gets a push back towards the South and Southwest an a 1039 high pressure system start to build into the Northern plains, will also have a chance of light snow here on Sunday the 30th. Will hold a chance of light snow through Monday the 31 as short waves will dive South out of Canada.. Could be signs of another Arctic blast heading this way to start the month of FEB.. Then it looks like we shall begin a thaw….
So to recap…. No big snowstorms in sight…. No long lasting Arctic air in sight, and last but not least no big warm-ups…Though temps will be warmer for a spell the week of the 24th.

Your forecast..

TONIGHT…. Mostly cloudy some flurries…Winds North/Northwest 10 to 15 MPH. Lows around 0

TUESDAY…. Partly cloudy highs around 10 North/Northwest winds 5 to 10 MPH

TUESDAY NIGHT… Partly cloudy skies lows around -10

WEDNESDAY….Partly cloudy highs around 8

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…Mostly cloudy chance of flurries lows around -5.

THURSDAY…. Partly sunny cold highs around 3…..

THURSDAY NIGHT… clear to partly cloudy skies…Lows around -30 to -20

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY….Mostly cloudy highs around 10 above… Lows in the single digits below zero…..

Weather terms we use in our forecast, and what they mean.

Here are some weather terms or slang we use here at The Weather Center...Most used in our forecast,some used in our pictures... More will be added throughout the week.
Accretion- Growth of precipitation particles by collision of ice crystals with supercooled liquid droplets which freeze on impact.
Accessory Clouds- Clouds that are dependent on a larger cloud system for development and continuance. Accessory clouds associated with the thunderstorm include roll, shelf, mammatus, and wall clouds.
Adiabatic- changes in temperature caused by the expansion (cooling) or compression (warming) of a body of air as it rises or descends in the atmosphere.
Adiabatic Process- The change of temperature of air without transferring heat. In an adiabatic process compression results in warming, and expansion results in cooling.
Advection- The horizontal transport of air, moisture or other atmospheric properties. Commonly used with temperatures, i.e., "warm air advection".
Advection Fog- a type of fog that results from the advection of moist air over a cold surface and the cooling of the air to its dew point that follows; this type of fog is most common in coastal regions..
AGL- above ground level.
Air Mass- A large body of air that has similar horizontal temperature and moisture characteristics.
Air-mass Thunderstorm- Generally, a thunderstorm not associated with a front or other type of synoptic-scale forcing mechanism. Air mass thunderstorms typically are associated with warm, humid air in the summer months; they develop during the afternoon in response to insolation, and dissipate rather quickly after sunset.
Air Parcel- An imaginary small body of air that is used to explain the behavior of air. A parcel is large enough to contain a very great number of molecules, but small enough so that the properties assigned to it are approximately uniform throughout.
Air Pressure- (atmospheric pressure) air pressure is the force exerted on a surface by the weight of the air above it. The internationally recognized unit for measuring this pressure is the kilopascal.
Alberta Clipper- A small, fast-moving low-pressure system that forms in western Canada and travels southeastward into the United States. These storms, which generally bring little precipitation, generally precede an Arctic air mass.
Anomaly- The deviation of (usually) temperature or precipitation in a given region over a specified period from the normal value for the same region.
Anticyclone- A large body of air in which the atmospheric pressure is higher than the pressure in the surrounding air. The winds blow clockwise around an anticyclone in the Northern Hemisphere.
Anticyclonic- describes the movement of air around a high pressure, and rotation about the local vertical opposite the earth's rotation.This is clockwise in the Northern Hemisphere.
Anvil Cloud- The flat, spreading top of a Cb (cumulonimbus), often shaped like an anvil. Thunderstorm anvils may spread hundreds of miles downwind from the thunderstorm itself, and sometimes may spread upwind (see back-sheared anvil).
Anvil Crawler - A lightning discharge occurring within the anvil of a thunderstorm, characterized by one or more channels that appear to crawl along the underside of the anvil. They typically appear during the weakening or dissipating stage of the parent thunderstorm, or during an active MCS.
Anvil Dome - A large overshooting top or penetrating top.
Arctic Air- a mass of very cold, dry air that usually originates over the Arctic Ocean north of Canada and Alaska.
Arctic High- a very cold high pressure that originates over the Arctic Ocean.
Arcus- A low, horizontal cloud formation associated with the leading edge of thunderstorm outflow (i.e., the gust front). Roll clouds and shelf clouds both are types of arcus clouds.
Atmospheric Stability- An indication of how easily a parcel of air is lifted. If the air is very stable it is difficult to make the parcel rise. If the air is very unstable the parcel may rise on its own once started.
Aurora Borealis- Also known as the northern lights - The luminous, radiant emission from the upper atmosphere over middle and high latitudes, and centered around the earth's magnetic poles. These silent fireworks are often seen on clear winter nights in a variety of shapes and colors.
AWIPS- Advanced Weather Information Processing System. New NWS computer system integrating graphics, satellite and radar imagery. The successor to AFOS.
CAA- Cold Air Advection
Cap (or Capping
Inversion)- A layer of relatively warm air aloft (usually several thousand feet above the ground) which suppresses or delays the development of thunderstorms. Air parcels rising into this layer become cooler than the surrounding air, which inhibits their ability to rise further. As such, the cap often prevents or delays thunderstorm development even in the presence of extreme instability.
 Convective Available Potential Energy. A measure of the amount of energy available for convection.
CAPE is directly related to the maximum potential vertical speed within an updraft; thus, higher values indicate greater potential for severe weather. Observed values in thunderstorm environments often may exceed 1,000 joules per kilogram (j/kg), and in extreme cases may exceed 5,000 j/kg. However, as with other indices or indicators, there are no threshold values above which severe weather becomes imminent.
Celsius- a temperature scale in which zero is the freezing point of water and one hundred is the boiling point.
Chance- A 30, 40 or 50 percent chance of occurrence of measurable precipitation.
Clear- Sky condition of less than 1/10 cloud coverage. Clear Slot- A local region of clearing skies or reduced cloud cover
Climatology- the scientific study of climate.
Closed Low- A low pressure area with a distinct center of cyclonic circulation which can be completely encircled by one or more isobars or height contour lines. The term usually is used to distinguish a low pressure area aloft from a low-pressure trough. Closed lows aloft typically are partially or completely detached from the main westerly current, and thus move relatively slowly.
Cloudy- the state of the sky when 7/10ths or more of the sky is covered by clouds.
Cold Advection- (CAA) Transport of cold air into a region by horizontal winds.
Cold-air Funnel- A funnel cloud or (rarely) a small, relatively weak tornado that can develop from a small shower or thunderstorm when the air aloft is unusually cold (hence the name). They are much less violent than other types of tornadoes.
Condensation- The process by which water vapor becomes a liquid; the opposite of evaporation, which is the conversion of liquid to vapor.
Confluence- A pattern of wind flow in which air flows inward toward an axis oriented parallel to the general direction of flow. It is the opposite of difluence. Confluence is not the same as convergence. Winds often accelerate as they enter a confluent zone, resulting in speed divergence which offsets the (apparent) converging effect of the confluent flow.
Convective Temperature- The approximate temperature that the air near the ground must warm to in order for surface-based convection to develop, based on analysis of a sounding. Convergence- An atmospheric condition that exists when the winds cause a horizontal net inflow of air into a specified region.
Divergence is the opposite, where winds cause a horizontal net outflow of air from a specified region.
Cyclogenesis- Development or intensification of a low-pressure center Cyclone- An area of low pressure around which winds blow counterclockwise in the Northern Hemisphere

Some winter weather facts and snow amounts so far this winter

Winter weather facts for Wisconsin.

There is about 25,000 vehicle accidents during the winter months do to snow, slush, ice covered roads. Sadly on Average there about 70 people who are killed and around 7,500 people are injured.. Main cause for this is people driving to fast for conditions and re learning how to drive in the winter elements.
What is also interesting but a no brainer is Hurley WI in Iron County had the most snowfall last year 09/10 they had 166.9 inches of snow….This came from Lake effect snows/ Lake enhance snows, along with synoptic snows…
The least amount of snow fell in Pierce County with only 11.5 inches of snow…

Ok lets look at the this past week the 10th through the 15th here at The weather Center we had a total of 8.75 inches of snow. So far this month we have had 11.00 inches of snow, not counting the 2.25 inches we picked up overnight and this morning so far… So far since Oct we have had 58.00 inches of snow this is 8 inches above the session average snowfall…. This is not counting the 2.25 inches from last night and this early morning…

Sunday, January 16, 2011

Forecast for Western/Northwestern WI/updated snowfall map.

Big changes to the forecasted snowfall map... Models have really speeded this system up, Which in return will lower snowfall amount... My far Southern areas will be in the best moisture and lift to see more snowfall,however there also a chance at some freezing light drizzle or rain and sleet...This would also hold the snow amounts down from their current forecast levels....Will run with 1 to 3 inches with some areas picking up close to if not 4 inches in my Northern areas... Here there will be some forcing and lift.... 1 to 2 inches for the rest of the FA with a few areas picking up to close to if not 3 inches will be highly unlikely for the 3 inch though...Cold air will blast back into the area faster then thought which will also help keep snowfall rates at bay....Now if things slow down once again we will go back to our first snowfall map issued this morning of the 16th.

Your forecast...
TONIGHT…. Mostly cloudy snow likely later lows around  5 and rising Winds South/Southeast 10 to 20 MPH with higher gust.

MONDAY…. Mostly cloudy snow likely see snowfall map below... highs  18 to 23

MONDAY NIGHT… Cloudy snow ending lows around 5 to 8

TUEDAY….Partly cloudy highs 8 to 11
TUESDAY NIGHT… Partly cloudy lows -15 to -8.

 WEDNESDAY…. Partly sunny cold highs 0 to 10 Lows -20 to -10… Slight chance of snow for Wednesday night….Lows -10 to -5


THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY…. Partly cloudy … Highs in the single digits  lows -6 to +2
Will leave the long term forecast stand as everything seems to still be in place.. We are watching for a possible warmer air mas to great us at the start of FEB... We shall see... See no reason to get to excited about this right now...

***LONG TERM DICUSSION FRIDAY JAN 22 THROUGH SUNDAY JAN 30***

Next chance of snow comes back into the forecast on the 23/24 time frame per 00z computer model runs… The track of this as of right now would put the heavier snow just South of the FA… Next system hits around the 26th as WAA kicks in… Temps do warm to near norms by the 26 and 27th before another Arctic front dives Southwards … With that there will be another shot of light snow the 27/28th time frame… Next system moves in for the late 29/30th time frame… So to recap the longer term….. Off and on light snows and temps will be up and down as well….. No big winter storms or no big warm ups in the this forecast cycle, as the Northwesterly flow keeps alive for most of this time frame….

Forecasted snowfall map

Another clipper like system moving into the area... More details later, however here is our snowfall map for now.

Saturday, January 15, 2011

Forecast for Western/Northwestern WI

Ongoing forecast doesn’t look to bad… Though there are a few problems with the Sunday night/Monday morning’s storm system… 1 models have speeded up this system 2. Models are a little weaker with said system now… So will not issue a snowfall map to do some low level confidence … If model trend keeps with fast and weaker solution this would be 1to 3 inches of snow for the FA….Will wait for some more data before making that call… Still see no big snowstorms, no big warm ups….Though any 20 degree days we see will sure feel nice.Temps will be a problem…If we can get more breaks in the clouds for tonight we could see temps drop into the teens below zero….Will run with single digits below zero for now.


Also note when we say no big warm ups we are talking about temps above 32 degrees.

TODAY… Mostly cloudy a few flurries here and there,some sunshine to brighten your day… Highs 10 to 15…Winds North/Northwest around 10 to 15 MPH….Lows -10 to -5

TONIGHT…. Mostly cloudy lows around -5 Winds North/Northwest becoming calm.

SUNDAY…. Mostly cloudy highs 5 to 10 …

SUNDAY NIGHT… Cloudy with snow likely

MONDAY…. Cloudy snow likely in the morning, otherwise a chance of light snow/flurries in the afternoon…. Highs middle teens to lower 20s…

MONDAY NIGHT… some light snow then ending lows either side of zero.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY…. Partly sunny cold highs 0 to 10 Lows -20 to -10… Slight chance of snow for Wednesday night….

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY…. Partly cloudy may be some light snow of Friday we will have to watch for that… Highs in the single digits to lower teens lows -15 to +5.

Will leave the long term forecast stand as everything seems to still be in place..

***LONG TERM DICUSSION FRIDAY JAN 22 THROUGH SUNDAY JAN 30***

Next chance of snow comes back into the forecast on the 23/24 time frame per 00z computer model runs… The track of this as of right now would put the heavier snow just South of the FA… Next system hits around the 26th as WAA kicks in… Temps do warm to near norms by the 26 and 27th before another Arctic front dives Southwards … With that there will be another shot of light snow the 27/28th time frame… Next system moves in for the late 29/30th time frame… So to recap the longer term….. Off and on light snows and temps will be up and down as well….. No big winter storms or no big warm ups in the this forecast cycle, as the Northwesterly flow keeps alive for most of this time frame….

Reported snowfall amounts

Here is the totoal snowfall amounts from yesterday afternoon and last night.....

Map below is our forecasted amount from yesterday morning....

So all in all the forecast was right on target... Also see short term forecasts as we did up the snow totals in the 2 to 4 inch range area....

Friday, January 14, 2011

Short term update number 8 and the last one.

Last update for this system….. Mod to heavy snow has worked back into Northern Barron County..Meanwhile light to Mod snow has worked its way into Central Polk County…. Should see less than ½ of snow in Polk County as this pushes out of that area as this will become light snow/flurries within the next 15 mins to ½ hour…. Over in Barron County into Rusk County, Southern Washburn and Sawyer Counties look for mod to heavy snow with another 1 to 2 inches possible… This will be a fast hitting band…Should see light snow/flurries after 12:15 -12:30 or so…


I think the NWS will let the winter weather advisory fall by the wayside at 12 AM as this next batch of snow won’t last long....

Short term forecast update number 7

Wave number two of mod to heavy snows now into Northern/Northwest Burnett  and Northern and Central Washburn Counties, and Central Douglas and Southwestern Bayfield Counties… This area of mod to heavy snow is sagging to the East/Southeast this will effect Northeastern Polk County along with  Northwestern and Northern maybe into Central Barron County along with most of Rusk Counties…. Look for another 1 to 2 inches of snow with this last band… May see some 3 inch reports with this band in said areas before switching over to light snow/flurries after the 12:30 to 1 AM hr.…. South of said areas look for just light snow/flurries for the rest on tonight…With little to no accumulations expected….

Short term forecast update number 6

Radar is showing mod to heavy snow still falling over Douglas, Bayfield, Iron Sawyer and Price Counties…. Another wave of mod to heavy snow starting to work its way into Western Douglas County also should be working its way into Northwestern Burnett County by 10:45 or so… This wave of mod to heavy snow will push into Northern Barron County and Rusk County…. Points to the North will see this area of Mod to heavy snows also…This should end rather fast so look for another 1 to 2 inches of snow with some 3 inch reports possible…Light snow/flurries after 12 or 1 AM… See below for the snowfall totals in update number 5….. South of said area just light snow/flurries will be possible throughout the rest of the night as the mod to heavy snows have ended and current radar trends keep the next way to the North and East of this area..This should be the last update on this system….


Note Sunday night into Monday this system looks to be more of widespread 2 to 4 inches throughout the FA…
Will detail this tomorrow…. Will issue a snowfall map either at the time of the forecast product or in the evening hrs…. Just to keep the levels of confusion at bay…..

Short term forecast update number 5

Snow is ending a little faster over Polk, St.Croix Counties…. Them areas will only see light snow/flurries the rest of night….Little in the way of accumulations…. Meanwhile  Heavy snow still falling here at the office and over into Rusk County and Points North… There will be a break in the heavy snow before the last wave of mod to heavy snow pushes in from MN… Main areas to be effect from this would be Extreme Northern Polk County, over to Cumberland, Rice Lake in Barron County….Bruce and Ladysmith in Rusk County… Plus points to the North…. This last wave of Mod to heavy snow should move into said areas around 11 and end by 12 or 1 look for another 1 to 2 inches of snow with a few spots closer to 3 inches…. This would bring the storm totals from 5 to 7 inches in said areas…Total snow amount South of this area 1 to 3 inches…. With spotty 4 inches possible highly unlikely though…As the next wave of snow appears to only give this area light snow/flurries…

Short term forecast update number 3

Radar is still showing mod to heavy snow to very heavy snow falling North of a line from Northern Polk County..To Cumberland to Rice Lake in Barron County over to Bruce and Ladysmith in Rusk County… Area of snow is pushing off to the East/Southeast… Looking upstream we see more mod to heavy snow in Aitkin and Carlton and Itasca Counties of MN… This is heading Southeast and should move through an area o East of line from Grantsburg,and Cumberland…. Points to the East and North of this line should see another few inches of snow…That will raise the total snowfall amounts closer to 6 inches in said areas..With already many of these areas reporting 4 inches of snow… Here at the office we are up to 4.25 inches of snow…When called into the NWS I reported 3.75 inches that was the amount as of 7:30 PM Snow in this area should be ending around 12 to 1 AM….Light snow/flurries after that with little in the way of accumulations…Ok points South of a far Northern Polk County to Cumberland Rice Lake in Barron County over to Bruce and Ladysmith in Rusk County…. Look for the snow to start to end from West to East over the next hour or two… Should see light snow/flurries after 10 or 11 PM tonight… Little in the way of snow accumulations after that time frame… May see another inch of snow in these areas… Calls to our weather obsevers showing 1 to 2 inches have falling as of 9 PM…Clear lake in Polk County 1.75 inches…Dunn and ST.Croix Counties reporting 1 to 1.75 inches of snow… With a few 2 inch reports….

Cumberland in Barron County 4 inches of snow Turtle Lake reporting 2 inches of snow…This is matching up rather well on the radar trends and real time data….

Short term updata number 3 plus pictures.

Very heavy snow falling within the 2- 4 inches marked on the map... Light to mod snow falling in the 1 to 3 inches areas marked on the map... Look for heavy snow to fall in the same area as it has been over the last few hrs.... May see some breaks in the action before the area fills back in once again... Meanwhile look for mod to light snow to keep falling South of a line from Nothern Polk County,through Central Barron and Rusk Counties..... This area should see snows begin to end around over the next few hrs or so.... North of this line as stated above should see snows lighten up and end for a short time before filling back in...Here the snow should becoming to an end around 12 to 1  AM.......So far as of 7:30 PM here at the office 3.50 inches of snow as falling still snowing very hard... Rds are bad so slow down if out and about this evening.



Short term forecast update number 2

Mod to heavy snows now taking over Northern Barron, far Northern Polk and Rusk Counties…. Burnett, Douglas and Washburn and Western Sawyer Counties are also seeing mod to heavy snows…. South of said Counties light to mod snows are taking place… We have noticed in radar trends that the mod snow is slowing going back to lighter snows… The heavier bad of snow that was over ST. Croix County is decreasing also…. We will see the heavier snow bands set up across far Northern Polk County over to Barron County Cumberland to Rice Lake over to Rusk County Bruce, and Ladysmith and Points North…. Point South of said line look for light snows with some mod snows from time to time…. Will keep snowfalls the same….. See below for that and to the reason....Stay tuned to The Weather Center for more updates....

Short term forecast number 1

For the most part light snow is now falling throughout much of the FA… There is a heavier band of snow that is setting up over Barron County looking out the office window we do have heavy snow now falling….


Looking at the radar trends and RUC data along with SFC data… We shall see this snow hang around into the over night hrs…. Looking upstream in MN we see another heavy snow band taking shape… This will drift into my Northern and Northern Central areas…. So forecast map looks to be right on target…. Was thinking about adding some 5 inch amounts…. However will just word it right here…. The 5 inch amount shall be throughout the 2 to 4 inch amounts on the map… Cumberland, Rice Lake, and over to Bruce and North of this line has the best chance at seeing around 5 inches of snow….Will not change the 1 to 3 inch area as this looks to be right in line with all the data we are looking at….Best forcing, lift along with dendritic growth zone sets up to the North of the 1 to 3 inch forecasted area… The area with the 1 to 3 inches forecasted will see light to mod snow with some heavier snows from time to time…Meanwhile the 2 to 4 inch with 5 inch amounts shall see mod to heavy snows kicking in after dark….That will be the main snow event….. Not saying there won’t be some heavy snow this afternoon,as we already see mod to heavy snows falling here at the office….Just saying after dark will be the main show….

Forecast for Western/Northwestern WI..Along with forecasted snowfall amount.

Well if you love snow, you will love this forecast…If you hate the cold, you will not like this forecast…. More snow on its way for this afternoon/tonight… More snow for Sunday night and Monday… More snow for Wednesday and Thursday… Get the picture…. However these snowfalls won’t really be much to write home about… Looks like 1 to 4 inches with each passing system…..


***CURRENT CONDITIONS***
Skies range from cloudy to partly cloudy throughout the FA..Satellite confirms this as seen in the vis imagery. Temps in the lower teens to middle teens…. Winds a rather light to calm… Some stations are reporting fog…

***FORECAST DISCUSSION/ANALYSIS***
Yesterday’s weak system is now over Northeastern WI…. We see a few areas of weak low pressure areas of around 1024 MBS or short-waves in far Northern MN and over the Western part of Lake Superior…. Meanwhile our next system of interests is over Northwestern SD… This system is forecasted to dive Southeast .. The best dynamics shall be found with the Northern low pressure… Still appears to be enough forcing with the Southern system to produce snow throughout the FA….. See map for forecasted snowfall amounts for later today and tonight….As both theses systems move through one to the North the other to our South…We shall see an Arctic cold front slam into the FA… Winds will switch to the North/Northwest…. Should be around the 10 to 15 MPH range for Saturday… This may cause some blowing and drifting issues…. We will watch for this throughout the day and into the night….We get a break in the action for most of the weekend…. Temps will be somewhat chilly…. The warmer day does appear to be Saturday with highs from 10 to 15 degrees…. Sunday temps will be lucky to get much above 5 to 10 degrees… Next system in the Northwesterly flow dives towards the area Sunday night into Monday… Both ECMWF and GFS are for the most part in rather good agreement on the placement of the snow and the track of said system… The track will be more South than previous systems so this would give more of the forecast area a better chance at 1-4 inches of snow… For Sunday night/Monday’s time frame…Another Arctic cold front will bear down on the area this looks to be colder than then the one this weekend…. Then another shot of snow in store for the FA for Wednesday night into early Thursday……..

TODAY..... Most cloudy with light snow moving in… Highs ranging from 18 to 24….. Winds South/Southwest light…

TONIGHT…. Cloudy snow likely see map for forecasted amounts…. Lows 5 to 10…Winds becoming Northwest 5 to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY… Mostly cloudy a few flurries here and there… Highs 10 to 15…Winds North/Northwest around 10 to 15 MPH….Lows -10 to -5

SUNDAY…. Mostly cloudy highs 5 to 10 …Sunday night light snow possible lows around -5 to 10

MONDAY…. Cloudy snow likely…. Highs middle teens… Monday night some light snow then ending lows either side of zero.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY…. Partly sunny cold highs 0 to 10 Lows -20 to -10… Slight chance of snow for Wednesday night….

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY…. Partly cloudy may be some light snow of Friday we will have to watch for that… Highs in the single digits to lower teens lows -15 to +5.

***LONG TERM DICUSSION FRIDAY JAN 22 THROUGH SUNDAY JAN 30***
Next chance of snow comes back into the forecast on the 23/24 time frame per 00z computer model runs… The track of this as of right now would put the heavier snow just South of the FA… Next system hits around the 26th as WAA kicks in… Temps do warm to near norms by the 26 and 27th before another Arctic front dives Southwards … With that there will be another shot of light snow the 27/28th time frame… Next system moves in for the late 29/30th time frame… So to recap the longer term….. Off and on light snows and temps will be up and down as well….. No big winter storms or no big warm ups in the this forecast cycle, as the Northwesterly flow keeps alive for most of this time frame….

Thursday, January 13, 2011

Forecast in good standing

Forecast update….None really needed...Will have to watch the temps though they may be a tricky.


All in all previous forecast is in good shape…Will keep with the same thinking as previous forecaster… No snowstorms as far as the eye can see… No big warm ups as far as the eye can see….Computer models are not hinting at a warm up at the end of this month…Though some forecasting sites are claiming it.. I don’t see it at all…. I see cold air locked in place right through the end of the month… Even the CPC is forecasting the same with its 6 to 14 day outlook…So with the computer model data, CPC, and HPC.. No big warm-ups . Temps should get back closer to norms by the end of the month but still not above average…

Will keep snowfall totals the same as previous forecaster has them… I was going to make a map however the text explains it and has it pinpointed down and it matches with all the real time and computer model data I’m looking at right now.. So I will not issue a map either,for Friday afternoon into Friday night… Timing looks to be right on target in the forecast below… I’m thinking about going a few degrees colder in the later periods of the forecast, right now will leave it stand… Will discuss with Dirk when he gets back into the office….

Forecaster Paul…<<<

Snowfall has ended...

Accumulating snows have ended..Look for just some off and on light snow/flurries for the rest of the night…


The heaviest snow band did setup right over Northern Barron and Rusk Counties, along with extreme Southern Washburn and Sawyer Counties…. This where we found 2.75 inches to 3.20 inches of snow per our weather observers and matching radar data…. Meanwhile points to the North saw 2.00 inches and a few spots in Polk County coming in with 2.00 inches which seems a little high give radar data and other reports from Polk County 1.75 would seem more reasonable…. For the most part 1 to 1.75 inches was the rule for our Central and Southern parts of the FA…. 2.00 inches the main rule for our North central and Northern areas of the FA… So the winners in the snowfall dept are Northern Barron, Rusk, Southern Washburn, and Sawyer Counties….
Forecaster Paul......<<<

Forecast for Western & Northwestern WI (No changes were needed)

Still see no reason to change the ongoing forecast…Still no big warm ups in sight right through the end of this monthNo big winter storms in sight either…. We shall remain mostly cloudy through Monday night…With chances of off and on light snows….. Next system to effect the area is forecasted to begin around mid day Friday…With the best chance of accumulating snows Friday night….Look for 1 to 3 inches most areas,however North of a Balsam Lake to Barron to Bruce 2 to 4 inches could fall…Look for highs on Friday upper teens to lower 20s… Lows Friday night single digits… Saturday will be colder with highs in middle teens with a chance of some snow flurries…Saturday night lows drop to around 5 to 8 below… If some breaks do form in the cloud deck temps could drop to around 10 below easily…. Sunday shall be cold highs in the single digits under mostly cloudy skies… Will bring a small chance of snow back into the forecast for Sunday night… Low fall to either side of zero….

Monday look for another weak system like the ones we had off and on all this week… Another 1 to 3 inches of snow will be possible…Will run with highs from 8 to 15 above… Monday night still some light snow with lows -5 to +3….. Tuesday looks dry and cold highs right around 5 above lows -20 to-13 below….Wednesday through Friday the talk around town will be the very cold temps…. Highs will be lucky to get above zero by Thursday and Friday with lows well below zero…

Tuesday, January 11, 2011

No big changes to the forecast

No big changes are needed to the forecast that was issued back on 01/06/11.... The main change is to prolong the colder air until the first part of next week...With that said the weekend really is not looking bad at all.... Will still see clipper like systems moving down in the Northwesterly flow...Should see around 1 to 3 inches with each passing system, mainly on Thursday and once again Friday night.. I'm thinking the 3 inch range may be somewhat high..Will run with for now...No big winter storms in sight or no big warm ups in sight right through the end of the month....So we will keep with the below normal temps and near normal precip...We will have to see if the Arctic air will make down into the FA early next week... If it does then next week temps will run much below normal...It appears this will be the case.....
So to recap....No big winter storms to deal with...No big warm ups that would be welcomed right about now....

Thursday, January 6, 2011

Enjoy the warmth... Forecast below....

Enjoy the warm air we have it won’t last much longer. Long range models showing an Arctic blast on its way… Will be starting next week, however the coldest air is forecasted to move into the area later next week and into next weekend…. This cold air is forecasted to last right through the end of the month…..


The coldest air thus far this winter still looks to be on tap for later next week/weekend… Very cold air has been building over the Arctic and Siberian … At this point there still looks to be no big snow storms in the forecast… Just a few system riding down on the Northwest flow…Should see less than an inch with each system…

Tonight through next Wednesday ..

There will be a chance of light snow/flurries from time to time… Temps will be rather warm compared to what we will be having after this time frame, more on this in a few….Highs through this forecast cycle should range from 10 to 14 above zero… Lows will range from 1 to 16 below… The 16 below coming this Saturday night…..

Now we come to the point we talk about the, finger numbing, pipe busting, and battery draining cold temps.(13th through 18th)

Here’s the setup we will a rather strong low pressure system to our East/Northeast…Meanwhile a strong Arctic High pressure system is forecasted to build into the area…Northwesterly to Northerly winds will allow for the coldest temps thus far this winter….. Looking at other setups from other years… We find that we could have a chance at breaking some records lows and record cold highs…. Hard to pin point down where the coldest air will setup… As of right now does look like must of MN and WI will be home for this cold blast… Lows could easy fall into the 30s to 40s below zero.. With highs from 20 to 15 below zero some place close to the FA if not the FA…

We will have more details on this as we head closer to the time frame….

Tuesday, January 4, 2011

Fast forecast but some cool pictures

No big snow storms in sight....Only an inch of snow if we are lucky with off and on systems throughout the week... No big warm ups in sight either....Temps for the most part will be below normal all this week... Long term computer models are showing Arctic air really building up North... This will slam into the area starting next week...This could be the coldest air thus far this winter... Remind everyone we already had -25 below already this winter... We will have to see what happens.... Still long range models keep this Arctic air around right through the middle of this month... Some hints it may hang around right through the end of this month,with no big warm ups.....
Ok on to some pictures.... This pictures I took this morning of Jan,4 River fog and sunrise made for a great photo op.....



 


Then I got behind a snow plow on the way one... 1.75 inches of snow( fluff)

Monday, January 3, 2011

2010 Severe and non severe thunderstorm stats.

This info has changed a little since our last post back on Sept 14th...
2010 Severe and non severe thunderstorms days, has been updated to add in for Nov and Dec….The 2010 summer will be remembered for its violent weather that hit the area…. However the stats below come from our office… This is for Barron County alone Until we talk about tornadoes then we will cover the whole FA…


Grand total for thunderstorm days is 50…

Grand total for severe thunderstorm days is 11…everyday wind damage, a few days hail damage….

Lets break this down month by month…

Jan =0

Feb= 0

March had 1 thunderstorm day.

0 Severe thunderstorm days.

April had 7 thunderstorm days…

2, 12, 13, 14, 15, 29, and 30.

0 Severe thunderstorm days…

May had 5 thunderstorm days

4, 22, 25,26,and 30.

0 Severe thunderstorm days.

June 12 thunderstorm days.

4, 5, 6, 11, 15, 17, 21, 22, 23, 25, 26, and 27.

6 of them were severe thunderstorm days.

0 Severe thunderstorm days.

July had 10 thunderstorm days.

4, 5, 11, 14, 17, 18, 20,23, 24, and 27.

6 of them day were severe thunderstorms days.

11, 14, 17, 18, 20, and 27.

August had 7 thunderstorm days.

7, 8, 10, 12, 13, 20, and 31

4 of these day were severe thunderstorm days.

7, 8, 12, and 13

September had 5 thunderstorm days.

2, 6, 15, 21, 27

1 of them was a severe thunderstorm day

21.

October had two 2 thunderstorm days.

24, 25

0 severe thunderstorm days

November had 1 thunderstorm day

22 which was thundersnow.

December had 1 thunderstorm day

11 and it was thundersnow.

Severe thunderstorm watches that were issued..

4/30…5/17…5/23…7/20.7/27 …8/8…8/13….9/21…

Tornado watches that were issued…

5/17…6/25...7/14….7/27….8/7….. 8/12….

So we had 8 severe thunderstorm watches issued..
6 tornado watches issued....

Not all days that watches were issued had severe thunderstorms/tornadoes…

Barron County had 3 tornadoes which all 3 were rated EF 1

Polk County has 3 tornadoes 2 rated EF 0 one rated EF1

ST. Croix County had 1 tornado and it was rated EF1

Pierce County had one tornado it was rated EF 2

Burnett County had 1 tornado it was rated EF 1

Ashland County had 2 tornadoes 1 was rated EF 2 and the other rated EF0

Iron County had one tornado it was rated EF 1…..

Overall Barron County had the most EF1 tornadoes.

The Counties that had the strongest tornadoes EF2 are as follows… Ashland, and Pierce…

Won’t go into warnings as there was so many issued just for Barron County alone… Right off the top of my head there was at least 4 tornado warnings that I know of issued for Barron County….
Notice the Dunn County tornado was dropped from the list... As it was not confirmed and not listed in WI 2010 plots. If it was to be listed once again it would rate EF0 once again.......
Barron County did come up the winner for seeing the most widespread damage along with very large hail and damage from that..
St.Croix and Dunn Counties came up the winners in the most flooding throughout the area....
Remind you Dirk chased all these events and his chase logs and pictures can confirm how we came up with the winners list....
Info came from the our office, Our storm chaser Dirk Miller, along with our weather observer's,  and the NWS that covers our FA....
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Why does not radar show it snowing?

Had about 50 emails asking that... Well radar does have a hard time seeing light snow/flurries the farther away an area is from the radar sites.. As you see on our radar map below...
Yes it is snowing here at The Weather Center....