Dirk's page Known as The Weather Center.

Fast forecast discussion.

2012-01-30T21:29:00.000-06:00

Weather headaches yeah there are a few mainly for late this weekend into early next week…..

A cold front will pass through the FA tomorrow, moisture is null in my Central and Southern areas…Northern areas will be closer to better forcing so would not be shocked to see some light drizzle or flurries. Temps will still be warm tomorrow lower to middle 30s in snow packed areas, while some upper 30s to lower 40s across the little to no snow pack areas.

Rest of the week looks dry and temps will slowly cool off into the weekend.

Problems show up big time on the model in regret to snow or sunny skies… GFS and GEM has been trending North with a low pressure system…..This system is forecasted to move into Southeast MN Northwest of Rochester then its Forecasted to Move Towards Eau Claire before heading almost do East….This would put Southwestern MN through Central and Northeast MN as well as my Central and Northern FA in the prime area for snow, While my Southern zones would see all rain from this system……Now ECWMF model has this same low way down in the Ohio Valley. If this plays out the upper mid Midwest would remain dry…..As always EC model has been and will once again be the model of choice for now…We will work out all the details on Wednesday and will issue a forecast ATTM….As this forecast discussion has covered the forecast well.

Rest of the week into the weekend…Dry with highs slowly cooling down to the upper 20s to lower 30s by the weekend. Lows will be cooling off from the middle 20s to upper teens to lower 20s by the weekend…Computer models are in agreement of colder air coming into the FA next week….

Sorry time does not allow for me to go into more details into the forecast… I do agree with my Southern/Southwesterly neighbor WEATHER 4 YOU so will point my veiwers that way to Wednesday.....Link can be found to the right.

Snow/this morning AU

2012-01-27T13:39:00.000-06:00

Here is a picture of a heavy snow band that moved into the area.Followed by the Northern Lights pictures.(just a few)

More snow last night

2012-01-25T08:50:00.000-06:00

More snow fell across the FA last night into the early morning hours....Once again my Southern areas got ripped off they only picke up from 1/2 of snow to as much as 1.50 inches....While my Northern areas picked up 2 to 3.50 inches of snow....Here at the office we picked up 3.25 inches of snow....

Snowfall amounts as of 6:00PM

2012-01-23T18:04:00.000-06:00

Here at the office we picked up 4.50 inches of snow…Below is some reports from our own weather observers …

Haugan. 4.50 inches of snow.

Brill 5.00 inches of snow.

Bruce 4.50 Inches of snow.

Rice Lake 3.5o inches of snow…

With our reports and the NWS reports below, one can see the highest amounts of snow have falling across my Central and Northern areas…..Notice the more West you get to MN the snow totals drop off big time…..
Here a list of the storm totals…This info below comes from the NWS.

0957 AM SNOW CUMBERLAND

01/23/2012 M3.0 INCH BARRON WI TRAINED SPOTTER

0259 PM SNOW CLAYTON

01/23/2012 M2.0 INCH POLK WI TRAINED SPOTTER

0340 PM SNOW MENOMONIE

01/23/2012 M2.3 INCH DUNN WI TRAINED SPOTTER

0543 PM SNOW IRON RIVER

01/23/2012 M5.0 INCH BAYFIELD WI BROADCAST MEDIA

0220 PM SNOW SPOONER

01/23/2012 M4.0 INCH WASHBURN WI CO-OP OBSERVER

0400 PM SNOW HERTEL

01/23/2012 E5.0 INCH BURNETT WI TRAINED SPOTTER

0408 PM SNOW 2 W HAYWARD

01/23/2012 E5.0 INCH SAWYER WI TRAINED SPOTTER

0446 PM SNOW MAPLE

01/23/2012 M6.3 INCH DOUGLAS WI TRAINED SPOTTER

0503 PM SNOW 6 NW IRON RIVER

01/23/2012 M6.5 INCH BAYFIELD WI CO-OP OBSERVER

0456 PM M6.0 SNOW CORNUCOPIA 01/23/2012 M6.0
INCH BAYFIELD WI TRAINED SPOTTER

01/23/2012 M6.0 INCH BAYFIELD WI TRAINED SPOTTER

Updated snowfall forecast map

2012-01-23T14:27:00.000-06:00

Here is the updated snowfall forecast map for the rest of today....This map does not show the forecasted storm total...Had this forecasted amounts to the amounts already picked up.....Radar showing Mod to heavy snow falling in parts of Barron County and points North.This should start to tapper off in the next hour or so..Light snow is slowly ending over my Western and Southern FA....

Snowfall forecast.

2012-01-23T11:26:00.000-06:00

Area of low pressure is forecasted to become stronger as it heads into Northeastern WI....This will keep the snow going for a few more hours across much of the FA...However it should start to end out in my Western areas....The map below is an overall view....There may be some changes to this, as noted on the Map..One thing not noted on the map is..My Western areas may have to be dropped down in snowfall amounts for today.....

Snowfall amounts as of 11:00 AM

2012-01-23T10:59:00.000-06:00

3.50 inches of snow has falling here at the office,and throughout the Central and Northern parts of Barron County.....Snow is still falling.....Other reported snowfall amounts,Cumberland 3.25,Rice Lake 3.00,Haugen 3.50,Turtle Lake 2.00.....

20 below last night!

2012-01-20T10:46:00.000-06:00

Here at the office we hit -20.3 for an overnight low...Some other overnight low temps are as follows.
Hayward -21
Superior -9
Rusk County -15
Eau Claire -12
New Richmond -13
Cumberland -11 think this is to warm
Rice Lake -13 think this is also to warm
Price County -18
All the above came from Airports except our office reading...
Some readings from our observers....
Brill -21
Haugen -20
Tergo -21
Siren - 18 Airport reported -13

20 below tonight!

2012-01-19T18:51:00.000-06:00

20 below is looking more likely for tonight...Already down to -10.6 @ 6:40 PM......See no reason why my Central and Northern areas won't hit -20 or colder with the fresh snow cover and lighter winds, Meanwhile my Southern areas could get as cold as -15 as they have little to no snow cover.

Arctic air in full swing.

2012-01-19T10:35:00.000-06:00

Arctic air is camped out over the area.....Lows here at the office dropped to -16.9..At 10 AM we are still sitting at -12.1...Hayward also dropped to -16....Superior bottomed out at -15....Eau Claire saw -11...Osceola -13....New Richmond also came in at -13...Cumberland -13...Siren saw -15 Rice Lake saw -13.....Will be lucky to get above zero in my Central and Northern areas today....While my Southern areas should barely break zero....Tonight will be another bone chilling night...With lows ranging from
-20 to -10...

GFS model

2012-01-18T19:42:00.000-06:00

Wow this is sure way off! another reason why I don't use these maps! GFS has been so wrong this year....One it tracks the storms way to South and Southeast. 2 if it does track a storm with EC,GFS overs estimates totals...I don't think it was it right all this winter with totals....

Weather 4 You

2012-01-18T18:47:00.000-06:00

Weather 4 you is now up and running. Forecasts will slowly get going for now just did more so a briefing type forecast. Weather 4 You is your number one choice for the best forecast and information,besides the NWS!!!! Our slogan will be. Want the best weather forecast/ Weather 4 you, is for you.
The Weather Center has the link on the right hand side.
Forecaster/Paul.

Arctic cold front position

2012-01-18T18:34:00.000-06:00

The map below shows you were the Arctic cold front is right now.....Say goodbye to the warm air we had today, temps today were below normal...Highs at the office was 19 average high is 21....

Say goodbye to the warmth

2012-01-18T14:45:00.000-06:00

Here comes the Arctic cold front....Hope everyone was able to enjoy the warm day temps at the office hit only 19 today......Look at this afternoon temps behind the Arctic cold front....That shall be our weather very soon!!....Light snow/ flurries are breaking out along the frontal boundary....

Forecast for Western/Northwestern WI

2012-01-18T11:05:00.000-06:00

Forecast problems..Will be the Arctic temps and wind chills today through Friday night….Also a few shots of snow….No long term forecast will be issued, as confidence levels are so low that far out.

***CURRENT CONDITIONS***

At 11 AM skies range from mostly sunny to partly sunny.Temps range from the single digits to as warm as 18 over in Oseola which does seem a little warm…..Wind are from the S/SE from 3 to 12 MPH with gust ranging from 18 to 23 MPH.

***FORECAST DISCUSSION***

Arctic cold front will slam through the FA during the coarse of today…..Temps won’t warm to much, Winds will switch from the S/SW to the W/NW later wind from 10 to 20 MPH with gusts up to 30 MPH will be possible….This will lead to very cold wind chills ranging from -20 to -30 tonight…..Will alos be a chance of light snow as the Arcitc blast moves in…Thursday shall be dry but cold highs may not get above zero for my Central and Northern areas, and only to the single digits arcoss my Southern areas….Friday a clipper will bring another chance of snow….Still no big deal and inch may be possible….Have kept snow chances going right through tis whole forecast package as the fast westerly flow keeps on giving…To hard to time systems…Looks like no big snow storms now……Just light snow fall amounts off and on….

***YOUR SHORT/MIDDLE TERM FORECAST***

TODAY….Becoming cloudy a chance of light snow later this afternoon….Highs 15 to 20…Winds S/SW becoming W/NW 10 to 20 MPH with gusts up to 30 MPH.

TONIGHT…Light snow ending, slowly becoming party cloudy. Lows -20 to -15 Central and Northern areas, single digits Southern areas….W/NW 10 to 20 MPH with gusts up to 30 MPH.Wind chills values ranging from – 30 to -20.

THURSDAY…. Cold,sunny…Highs -5 to 0

THURSDAY NIGHT….Clear cold… Lows -15 to -10

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY… A chance of snow…Highs 5 to 10 Fri…15 to 20 Sat….Lows -5 to 0 Fri….10 to 15 Sat.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY…. A chance of snow…Highs middle to uper 20s to around 30… Lows 10 to 15 most of this time frame…15 to 20 by Monday night.

***LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION***

Will be short and to the point….Models are way off and to try to make a forecast is pointless….This has to be the worse I have seen them in many years…..One says it will warmup big time,while others say it will get colder again…Some say snow storm, other say no snow….. Again it is pointless even trying to figure it out….Will give the long term models a few days to resolve this,then will issue a long term forecast…..

Cold night last night

2012-01-18T10:09:00.000-06:00

Winter made a strong come back...Temps throughout much of the FA saw temps fall well below zero....While my far Western areas stay a few degrees above zero....Below are some of the lows....
Here at the office -10
Rice Lake Airport -5
Superior -8
Eau Claire -3
Hayward the winner they dropped to a bone chilling -15...
Temps have warmed to just above zero through the FA....

Weather 4 you

2012-01-13T14:28:00.000-06:00

I'm happy to say I got my blog online today with some help from Dirk.I will still be doing forecasting and short term forecasting for The Weather Center. The link can be found to the left and below this.
My blog is called Weather 4 You. I won't be forecasting on it for a week or two. I need to add more things to it before I get to far ahead of myself. I will be back at Dirk's tonight to work on it.
http://pauljones822.blogspot.com/

Forecast for Western/Northwestern WI.

2012-01-12T12:25:00.000-06:00

Forecast problems…None really to speak about untill we get into the long term…Winter is back and will last for awhile, though we will have a few warmer days here and there.The main story will be the cold air throughout next week.Then the coldest air of this winter thus far coming in the longer term.....With a possible winter storm...See long term discussion and forecast for that info.

***CURRENT CONDITIONS***
At Noon…Temps are in the lower to middle teens under cloudy skies most stations are reporting light snow…New Richmond and Osceola are not reporting light snow… Winds are from the North/Northwest from 9 to 15 with gusts up to 23 MPH…..

***SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION***
Light snow will keep going through the rest of the day….Accumulations will be light ¾ to as much as an inch is possible…Thinking the lower end of that will verify….Higher amounts of snow will be found along parts of the Lake Superior South Shore….Where as 2 to 5 inches more of snow shall fall today and tonight…….A 993 MB low pressure system over Central MI is forecasted to pull East/Northeast. This will also drag a trough of low pressure out of the FA tonight…Friday we get a break in the action, however temps will remain well below norms….A 1024 MB high pressure is forecasted to nudge into the area tomorrow, this should allow for skies to become partly cloudy..This will allow for lows Friday night to dip to below zero for a few hours…WAA should get in late Friday night/early Saturday morning…Temps could raise by sun’s up…Saturday a clipper system is forecasted to be over Northern MN this low will draw a warm front Northeast wards, however that will be short lived as this system will drag another cold front into and through the area…..
***YOUR SHORT TERM FORECAST***
REST OF TODAY. Cloudy with light snow/flurries likely…Less than an inch, higher amounts along parts of the South Shore….Highs today 10 to 15.
TONIGHT… Cloudy with a chance of light snow/flurries ending. Still will be LES snows in the snow belts of the South Shore…Skies may start to clear off after 2 AM…. Lows -2 to +3.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy highs 10 to 15 lows -5 to 0.
SATURDAY…. A chance of light snow under cloudy skies highs 27 to 30.
SATURDAY NIGHT.. Cloudy then becoming partly cloudy lows 5 to 10.

***CONFIDENCE LEVEL*** = High for this time frame.

***MIDDLE TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION***
Sunday a high pressure system builds back into the area, this will insure the FA a Partly cloudy day with warm temps….Once again this will be short lived as we see another system, unlike Saturday’s this system this one is forecasted to move along the Canada/USA border…A low pressure system is forecasted to form in KS and push Northeast wards to Northeastern part of MI….Will have a slight chance of snow for Monday/Monday….Models still all over the place on this…..One thing is for sure an Arctic cold front is forecasted to blast through the FA Monday late afternoon/early evening….This could bring us the coldest air thus far this winter…..
***YOUR MIDDLE TERM FORECAST***
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy highs 25 to 28 lows 15 to 18.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy with a slight chance of snow highs 27 to 30 lows 5 to 20.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy highs 5 to 10 lows -10 to -5.
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy highs 5 to 10. Lows -15 to -10.

***CONFIDENCE LEVEL*** = HIGH on temps. Low of snow chances for Monday.

***LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION 19TH THROUGH 28TH****

We start this time frame dry and cold…Could be some flurries and light snow in our Southern areas on the 19th…There is another storm system that is forecasted to stay well to our South on the 20th and 21st ,another system os forecasted to drop into the area on the 22nd this looks like it could bring a better chance of snow to my Central and Northern areas.Warm air will try to work North on the 23rd, however there looks to be a chance of heavy snow for my Central and Northern areas, with a chance at rain/wintery mix in my Southern areas..Will keep a chance of snow going on the 24th . A slight chance of snow for my Central and Southern areas on the 26th /27th doesn’t look like nothing more than light snow/flurries. The 28th dry. So off and on chances of snow through this time frame….Temps for the most part will be colder than normal, with a few warm days, overall will see an average of below normal temps.
***YOUR LONG TERM FORECAST***
19th. Dry highs 5 to 10 lows -5 to 0
20th. Dry highs 5 to 10 lows -10 to -5
21st. Dry highs 0 to 5 lows -10 to -5
22nd. A chance of snow highs 5 to 10 lows -5 to 0
23rd Snow and it could be heavy Central and Northern areas, rain and wintery mix in the Southern areas than changing over to light snow/flurries….High 20 to 25 lows 5 to 15
24th Chance of light snow highs 10 to 15 lows -15 to -10
25th Dry highs 0 to 5 lows -15 to -10
26th Slight chance of snow Central and Southern areas dry Northern areas. Highs 10 to 15 lows.-10 to – 5
27th. Slight chance of snow Central and Southern areas dry Northern areas highs 5 to 10 lows –20 to -15
28th Dry highs -5 to +5 lows -20 to -15

***CONFIDENCE LEVELS*** Moderate to high through this period.

Snowfall amount

2012-01-12T10:27:00.000-06:00

We have 3.75 inches of snow so far from this storm event....Still snowing....Here is a picture from on of my snow broads,This was is showing a little more, however when one averages out all the snow broads and the snow gauge one would get 3.75...This is not the grand the total yet.

A closer look at the buds!!!

2012-01-08T13:50:00.000-06:00

These are buds!! If they aren't then I must be dead!!.....

Pictures of a sugar maple and my lilacs budding out

2012-01-08T11:39:00.000-06:00

Who says tress can't bud out this time of year?....Proof is right here that indeed they can....Not the first time I have seen this in my lifetime.....What is cool we still have snow on the ground here.First picture is the Sugar maple.

Next two pictures is my Lilac bush.

The forecast for Western/Northwestern WI.

2012-01-07T13:12:00.000-06:00

Forecast will mainly deal with the weather pattern change that is coming next week.. It will be a big one!! Just as we have been forecasting for sometime now.....

***CURRENT CONDITIONS***
At 1:00 PM Skies range from Partly sunny to mostly cloudy throughout the FA…Temps range from the upper 20s to lower 30s….Winds are out of the West/Northwest from 5 to 9 MPH.

***SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION***
Short wave that moved through the area during the overnight has now pushed into Eastern WI…Some clearing has taken place behind this…Still some more clouds out over Central/ Northern MN to work either way into the area…Have decided to run with partly cloudy to cloudy wording in the forecast, this will cover today rather well. Temps will be a tad cooler today as CAA has over taken the FA…Still temps will be about 20 degrees above normal. Later this afternoon or evening we will see another short wave drop into the area from Canada…This wave will be a fast hitter with just clouds, no moisture for it to work with so no snow is forecast…..Sunday a high pressure system drops into the area this will allow for skies to start to clear after 2 AM setting the stages for a mostly sunny day tomorrow and Monday….A warm front is forecasted to blast through the area Monday night this will allow for warmer reading on Tuesday…The way it looks record highs for Tuesday should be safe….Record high is 44 degrees …We are forecasting lower 40s…..Either way it will be another warm day in the Northwoods…..

***YOUR SHORT TERM FORECAST***
Today… Partly cloudy to cloudy, highs 30 to 33.
Tonight… Becoming cloudy early, lows around 20 to 24….Becoming clear after 2 AM.
Sunday… Mostly sunny, highs 29 to 33.
Sunday Night… Partly cloudy to clear, lows 20 to 24.
Monday… Sunny, highs 35 to 30.. Lows 20 to 24.
Tuesday… Partly cloudy to mostly sunny, Highs 35 to 40, lows 24 to 28.
Confidence level is moderate to high…

***MIDDLE TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION***
Big changes forthcoming in the weather pattern we have been locked under….With a chance of significant snowfall for my Central and Northern areas for Wednesday and Wednesday night..For now will run with a chance of snow, thought about running with snow likely wording as ECMWF model has showing this strong storm system the last few days now……..Then a blast of Arctic air….
ECMWF model forms a low pressure over ND/SD then tracks it to the Southeast to around the Twin Cities areas then through Central WI Wednesday and Wednesday night..GFS has been an outlier so will disregard it…..
Should be plenty of moisture for this strong low pressure to work with cold air throughout the column to keep prcip all snow through my Central and Northern areas. My far Southern areas could see some light rain before changing over to some light snow, as of right now precip chances are slim at best down there…One thing that is a giving for the whole forecast area will be the Arctic blast….We may have our lows on Thursday night to warm, we may have to drop them below zero… Will depend on if we get a good snow pack, and how fast clouds clear out…Still time to play with that…

***YOUR MIDDLE TERM FORECAST***
Wednesday… Cloudy a chance snow highs 25 to 28 then falling in the afternoon….
Wednesday Night… Cloudy with a chance of snow lows around 5 to 10.
Thursday… Mostly cloudy highs 10 to 15.
Thursday Night… Mostly cloudy lows 0 to 5.
Friday…. Partly cloudy highs 13 to 16….
Confidence level is rather high through this period.

***LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION SAT 14 THROUGH MON 23**

Temps will highly depend on how much of a snow pack is on the ground…So as of right now we could be to warm with the long term temps…Though through most of this time frame we are looking at below normal temps…
There will off and on chances of snow throughout the period….So the weather pattern will have changed to colder than normal from the middle term into this forecast cycle…

***YOUR LONG TERM FORECAST***
Sat 14….Dry highs 15 to 20 lows 5 to 10
Sun 15… Dry highs 15 to 20 lows -10 to -5
Mon 16… Slight chance of snow highs 10 to 15 lows -5 to 0
Tue 17… slight chance of snow highs 15 to 20 lows -5 to 0
Wed 18.. Dry highs 10 to 15 lows -5 to 0
Thur 19… Dry highs 5 to 10 lows -10 to -5
Fri 20… Slight chance of snow highs 10 to 15 lows 0 to 5
Sat 21.. Slight chance of snow highs 10 to 15 lows 0 to 5
Sun 22... slight chance of snow highs 15 to 20 lows 5 to 10
Mon 23... Dry highs 20 to 25 lows 10 to 15.
Confidence level is low on temps and precip chances… As stated above temps will be highly depend on the snow pack…I did undercut model guidance through this forecast cycle to account for the snow pack.
Normal highs through this period...20 to 21....Normal lows for this period...1 above..

Looking back at 2011

2012-01-02T13:33:00.000-06:00

This data is for Barron County WI only….
This was one wild year in terms of the weather…..
We will looks at how much snow has falling in this past year….This may be a little confusing, as we will look at every month we have snow….
We will look at how many thunderstorm days we had.
We will look at how many severe thunderstorm days we had…

First off we will look at the crazy temp ride we had…

Many call the year 2011 a year without a spring….Well they were sure right about that….From Jan through July temps averaged well below normal….
We even had snow in May more on that latter.

Time to list the months and what we saw…..

***JANUARY***

Temps were colder than normal…We had 22.50 inches of snow…No thunderstorm/thundersnow days.

***FEBUARY***

Temps were colder than normal….We had 12.50 inches of snow….No thunderstorm/thundersnow days..

***MARCH***

Temps averaged out to be colder than normal….We had 14.00 inches of snow…We had 3 thunderstorm days…

***APRIL***

Temps were colder than average….We had 7.50 inches of snow…We had 3 thunderstorm days… 1 severe thunderstorm day….Total thunderstorms were 4.

***MAY***

Temps were colder than normal….We had snow on the 1st and 2nd only a trace, nonetheless it was snow…We had 5 thunderstorm days…We had 2 severe thunderstorm days…Total thunderstorm days 7.

***JUNE***

Temps did average out slightly below normal, even though we had 102.7 on the 7th First part of June was warm, however temps cooled right back off for the rest of the month. We had 10 thunderstorm days…No severe thunderstorm days…Total thunderstorm days 10….

***JULY***

Temps were slightly cooler than normal..What was strange about this month was our overnight lows were warmer than average, while our daytime highs were cooler than normal…..We had 9 thunderstorm days…We had 6 severe thunderstorm days..Total thunderstorm days 15…

***AUGUST***

Temps were near normal still slightly below normal….We had 8 thunderstorm days…We had 1 severe thunderstorm day…Total thunderstorm days 9….

***SEPTEMBER***

Temps were slightly below normal…. We had 4 thunderstorm days….No severe thunderstorm days…Total thunderstorm days 4….We had a trace of snow on the 15th.

***OCTOBER***

Temps were warmer than normal….We had 2 thunderstorm days….No severe thunderstorm days….Total thunderstorm days 2… We had less than ¼ inch of snow on the 27th.

***NOVEMBER***

Temps were warmer than normal….We had 4.50 inches of snow….We had 1 thunderstorm day which was thundersnow….. Total thunderstorm days 1.

***DECEMBER***

Temps were warmer than normal…. We had 18.50 inches of snow…No thunderstorm days…Our first subzero readings happened this month….on the 9th and again on the 10th
***RECAP***
Temps for the year 2011 believe it or not were slightly below to near normal….
We had a total of 55 thunderstorm days…Out of those days we had 10 severe thunderstorm days..
We had 79.50 inches of snow for the year 2011……….
There you have it 2011 review…..
ONCE AGAIN THIS IS FOR BARRON COUNTY WI ONLY….THIS INFO COMES FROM OUR RECORDS HERE AT THE WEATHER CENTER……

Looking back at December 2011

2012-01-02T12:08:00.000-06:00

Looking back at the month of December….

December was a warm month…..Still be had some nights that we saw temps drop below zero…..Over all this December will average out to be slightly above normal for the area.

The was 7 snow days this month…..Days that we had saw snow fall are as follows.

1st …. 1.00 inches.

2nd …and 3rd …. We had 8.00 inches.

14th… we had ¾ inches.

23rd …. We had 3.00 inches.

29th we had ¾ inches.

31st we had 5.00 before midnight…

This brings the total snowfall amounts to 18.50 inches for this month.

December 2010 we saw 33.75 inches of snow….

Let’s break the snowfall down more and compare it to the average.

On the average we see 12.80 inches of snow in December…..So we did manage to see above normal snowfall….18.50 – 12.80 = 5.70 inches above normal…

There was no thunderstorms or thundersnow days this past month….

Late this afternoon or evening we will look back into the year of 2011…..

Storm report and pictures

2012-01-01T19:11:00.000-06:00

As forecasted the heavier snows did fall through Northern Barron, Polk, and Rusk Counties and points to the North/Northeast of that area....The highest snow amounts have been found over the South Shores of Lake Superior....
Here at the office we picked up 6.00 inches of snow, that amount may have been higher, however didn't get a chance to take another reading as I was out of the office most of today....Winds have been gusting up to 45 MPH here at the office over the last hour....Still areas of blowing and drifting snow will remain a problem for parts of the FA.
Here are some pictures from last night and today....Videos can be found on youtube...See link to the right.

Possible winter storm for the area.

2011-12-31T13:01:00.000-06:00

Problems with this forecast…Computer models really aren’t agreeing on the track of the storm system…GFS has the system Moving into Southern IA then into Central IL before working it into IN…..Meanwhile NAM has the low moving into Northeast IA/Southwest WI Before tracking it to around the Door County area…..What both models do agree on is that the area of low pressure will become stronger as it pushes East of the area…..EC has a track close to the NAM, however just a tap North, either way once again this should not play accumulations …..Also EC does deepen the low once it moves past the area…..With models agreeing on that…This system should turn out to be a wind jammer……Wind could gust up to 40 MPH at time throughout the FA…Wind could gusts up to 45 to maybe as high as 50 MPH in our wind prone areas…..This will cause problems for high profile trucks, and vans…

Now as far as snowfall amounts….Models aren’t really seeing eye to eye….So have decided to blend NAM and EC models for the snowfall amounts I have threw GFS out the window as it can’t seem to handle any snowfall amount this year!.....The highest total will be along the South Shore of Lake Superior, where there could be 10 plus inches of snow, mainly due to LES…..The 5 to 8 inches snowfall areas also have a chance for some LES this is the reason for them amount versus going with 3 to 6 inches…..

Tonight and tomorrow some areas could see near to blizzard conditions with winds gusting 35 to 45 MPH throughout the area…Winds along with heavy snow falling, this could lead to blowing and drifting snows, which could cause travel problems later tonight into Sunday late afternoon or Sunday evening.

Also noted in my far Southern areas there may also be more of mix prcip which could hold snow totals down….There will be some mix prcip as the system first cranks up, however this will be changing to all snow rather fast for my Central and Northern areas….

Merry Christmas!

2011-12-25T01:17:00.000-06:00

From The Weather Center, we wish you and your families a very Merry Christmas!

Today's snowfall

2011-12-23T19:46:00.000-06:00

Today we picked up 3.00 inches of snow here at the office....Snowfall ranged from 1 to 3 inches across the FA....A white Christmas for the parts of the FA...Won't melt tomorrow like a lot of people think it will...Temps ranging from 28 to 33....

Why one needs to use different radars.

2011-12-21T11:34:00.000-06:00

Here is a good example as to why one needs to use different radars to see where precip may or may not be at….One radar grab is from DHL, the other is from MPX….One can clearly see the difference on these two radar views.

Some info.

2011-12-19T22:38:00.000-06:00

Still won't issue a forecast...Short term forecasts have been covering things rather well..So will keep doing that...No big cold snaps or big winter storms seen right through Christmas....The end of the first week on the New Year still looks like a big weather pattern change coming to the area....

Big changes in the weather coming/some interesting weather facts.

2011-12-17T23:42:00.000-06:00

Looks like a big change in this boring weather pattern is coming in January…Looks like either the end of the first week or the start of the second week of January….So if you love this warm weather get out and enjoy it the next couple of weeks…..Snow lovers hang in there your time is coming very soon!!.....

Some interesting facts about the weather for Rice Lake WI…
Our warmest month is July.
Our coldest month is January.

Our windiest month is April.
Our Calmest month is August.

Snowiest month is January.
Months without snow are as follows….June, July, August…Snow has been reported in all other months.

Our wettest month is August.
Our driest month is February.

Our Sunniest month is July.
Our cloudiest month is November.

This is all based on averages….

Looking back at Nov 2011

2011-12-17T01:10:00.000-06:00

I know am late with this….Nov was a up and down ride in temps and precip….Overall temps were slightly above average here at the office….

We a total of 4.50 inches of snow..

Snow days are as follows…

Nov 10… We had 1 inch.

Nov 19… we had 3 inches.

Nov 30… we had ½ inch…
Total snowfall...4.50 inches

We also had one thunderstorm day.

Nov 15. We had a thunderstorm this was thundersnow…

So we had one thundersnow day……

Looking back at Nov 2010…

We had 11 inches of snow…

We had 1 thunderstorm day/thundersnow day.

Precip report

2011-12-15T12:15:00.000-06:00

This picture shows we pick up 0.42" of precip from 7 AM yesterday through 7 AM this morning...
This is melted down...So rain/sleet and snow for this total....See post below for how to read the gauge the right way! Does make a big difference if one reads the top line,which is the wrong way....I do know some who read their gauge like that...A big NO, NO....

Water content

2011-12-14T07:16:00.000-06:00

Here is the total water content of the snow/sleet/rain fall through 7 AM this morning.
You have to read the bottom line, as the water fills up the tub, the liquid will curve....This is aka meniscus....One has to read the bottom/base of the curve or the meniscus to get an accurate reading.Here is a picture....So here I have 0.16 of water....The reading won't be 0.17 as most would think....Just a fast lesson in reading a rain gauge....

Snow/sleet/rain

2011-12-14T06:28:00.000-06:00

This morning has brought us a wintry mix of snow/sleet/rain....Here at the office we picked up 3/4 inches of snow with sleet....Roads are slippery this morning throughout parts of the area..... Here are a couple of pictures....

Below zero already

2011-12-09T20:58:00.000-06:00

1.4 below right...Last night we hit 5 below...Looks like tonight should be the same story....A nice little warm up on the way for this weekend...Don't worry snow lovers we will not melt all the snow!!...
The mid to end end of next week is really looking interesting...Major snow storm is looking more likely...Still this is far out there and won't worry about it....Though looks like this system will have warmer air to work with....So the way it looks right now my Southern areas should see all rain...Central areas rain/snow mix....My Central areas in the Central areas should see all snow as well as my Northern areas...Will go in depth on this Sunday or Sunday night...For now will let models play their little games....GFS is playing the to far and East game though its 18z runs were closer to the ECMWF....I did use the ECMWF as it has been showing the same track over the last few days....Like always this model has done great on this years winter storms so far...GFS well it sucks....So will run with EC, one can't throw out it's track record from last winter and this winter so far!!....

Below zero....

2011-12-09T00:39:00.000-06:00

There we have it our first below zero reading of this winter 2011/2012....At 12:19 AM we dropped to -1.3 degrees.... Now we are at -2.0 degrees...

Still plowing the roads

2011-12-04T12:24:00.002-06:00

A small video clip from on the way back home....Should have been out long before this....Still got some action.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=41iKCzqZCI4

Pictures from last night's snow event

2011-12-04T08:51:00.000-06:00

I didn't take a reading yet, wanted to get pictures in case the wind becomes stronger...Great photo ops up here....

updated snowfall amount

2011-12-03T23:58:00.000-06:00

Almost up to 7.50 inches of snow.....

5.00 inches of snow.

2011-12-03T20:18:00.000-06:00

5 inches of snow as of 8 PM still snowing very hard.

Still snowing very hard

2011-12-03T19:58:00.000-06:00

Here are some more pictures from tonight's snow event.

3.00 inches

2011-12-03T18:38:00.000-06:00

Picture says it all and it's still snowing very heavy.

Heavy snow falling at the office.

2011-12-03T18:28:00.000-06:00

Heavy snow falling at the office we have 3 inches so far,still snowing heavy.

Updated snowfall map

2011-12-03T09:43:00.000-06:00

Here is the current thinking on the lastest snowfall amounts...See discussion below for the details....

Fast discussion on today's and tonights snow event.

2011-12-03T09:23:00.000-06:00

Will leave fine tune the snowfall map some in a little.....However the dark blue shaded area looks like 4 to 6 inches will be more likely with some iso areas seeing 6 to 8 inches...That is if stronger instability can move in, this will depend on how strong the thunderstorms down to the South can become...The deformation areas does setup more to the North...From the Twin Cities over Eau Clarie Rice Lake and Ladysmith area....A dry slot if forecasted to move into Southeast MN and Southwestern WI so with our snowfall map those areas should see from 2 to 5 inches of snow....That areas would be from Rochester MN over around the Nesillsvile area of WI. Some areas with that area could see some 6 inches reports,however rule off thumb is to run with 2 to 5 inches of snow....

Updated snowfall map

2011-12-02T16:42:00.000-06:00

In the dark blue is where we are forecasting snowfall amounts of 6 plus inches. We did talk about adding some 8 inch snowfall amounts in that area, however it does not look like a widespread deal,just a few reports of 8 inches may been seen,however 7 inches would be more the realm. The red area we are calling for 2 to 5 inches. The light blue 1 to 2 inches. This system is still not 100% written in stone yet so Dirk may have to change this map tomorrow morning. This snowfall amounts may be less if strong thunderstorms form to the South down over MO and so on.Just another reason why we didn't go higher in the forecasted amounts. Southern areas may also see less if this system moves 50 miles West/Northwest,as this would allow for more warmer air to drawn into those areas keeping more of a mix percip going.Still a lot of things to keep an eye on with this system. Can't stress this enough, this winter storm is not wriiten in stone in any shape or form yet.By tomorrow morning Dirk should have things all worked out. I rather hold off on issuing a forecast at this time due to reasons stated above.I was one the fence about updating the snowfall map I would have rather waited for the 0z runs to come in. I'm almost sure this will end up going back to the first map that was out on Wednesday.
Forecaster/Paul.

A weeee little chilly

2011-12-01T22:59:00.000-06:00

A chilly night as of 10:52 PM it is 8.5 degrees....Good ice making weather...I sure hope we don't get any snow for about a good week or two!!!

Forecast will stand. Snowfall map will stand.

2011-12-01T16:44:00.001-06:00

Am going to leave the ongoing forecast stand as is...Models today really not helping much,GFS still is way to South with the track of this system,While NAM and ECWMF have been hold the same track over the last few days...I really don't like Nam's output for QPF....However ongoing forecast and snowfall map was based more in the line with the ECWMF with a blend of NAM's QPF....The Gem model really hasn't been useful either....9 chances out of 10 I'm going to hold off on doing any major changes to the ongoing forecast, if needed it will be done tomorrow evening...Some of GFS memebers are slowly coming around to some with this storm system,seems like GFS is battling it's self now....Will leave snowfall map stand, there was some discussion about lowering some amounts way up North, and going an inch or two higher in the South...Still looks like warm air may sneak into the far Southern areas to bring a mix on Saturday, and may even be a few hours of just plain rain in that area.This will hold down snowfall amounts...Central and Northern areas will be cold enough through the colum to produce all snow...
***TO RECAP***
Ongoing forecast stands..Snowfall map stands.... No changes are planed to the forecast....Changes will likely be map to snowfall map, reasons above...

This morning's pictures

2011-12-01T07:53:00.001-06:00

Here are a few pictures taken this morning...We picked up an inch of snow from this system.

Below is the snow water equivalent.

Pictures from last night and this early morning snowfall

2011-12-01T00:55:00.000-06:00

More pictures will be added once I get some in the day time later today.

Snowfall forecast.

2011-11-30T18:08:00.001-06:00

This is our snowfall forecast for this upcoming weekend...This could change,but based on model data this is how it looks as of right now....NAM and ECWMF model are in good agreement on the track of the storm system, meanwhile GFS is way to South and Southeast....Would think we should see GFS get on track with the other models by Friday....Map made from a program,The program still has a few bugs to workout yet.

Forecast for Western/Northwestern WI

2011-11-30T10:14:00.000-06:00

Light snow likely for tonight and tomorrow morning…Than heavy snow possible for the weekend mainly Saturday and Saturday night..Then Arctic air later in the short and middle term, along with the long term forecast…Which will not be issued today do to time.

***CURRENT CONDITIONS***
At 10 AM Skies are partly cloudy to cloudy…Temps range from the upper 20s to lower 30s…New Richmond is reporting 34 that may be wrong when looking at other stations….Winds for the most part are light from the South/Southwest

***SHORT/MIDDLE TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION***
This morning’s SFC weather charts..We see an areas of high pressure from TX up to the Great Lakes…A cold front is in Northwestern MN through Central ND….A weak area of low pressure is centered North of central MT a cold front extends South/Southwest from said low into Northern CA…By tonight the cold front is forecasted to pushing through the area. A low pressure system is forecasted to move along the frontal boundary From Mt into Western MN than the Northern Twin Cities through Southern Polk Barron than over to Door County….System is rather weak, however there shall be enough lift and moisture to kick out some light snows…. Looks like 1 to 3 inches will be possible mainly over my Central and Northern areas, mainly North of the storm track with 1 an inch possible over my Southern areas…Far Southern areas could see ½ of snow.
We get a break in the action for Late Thursday through Friday…Now onto the possible winter storm for the weekend….
ATTM there are still many things that could go wrong with this system….On Friday we will see the area basking under a high pressure…A strong cold front is forecasted to over Central MT back into ID and OR..We will find a storm system forming over the TX panhandle…Cold front is forecasted to move into and through the area on Saturday, this does slow up some as it gets just East of the FA…This will allow for the storm system to our Southwest to ride Northeast along the frontal boundary… This will allow for a band of heavy snow form South Central MN in the FA..Moisture shouldn’t be a problem as this storm system will drag up plenty from the GOM….Cold air will be in place, however there may be some issues as far as all snow or rain and snow mix in my far Southern FA before it changes to all snow…This could hold amounts down in those areas…..Now if the push of cold air moves faster than forecasted this would throw the cold front into Eastern WI, hence the low would be way to the East…If this pans out the Central and Eastern WI would see the heavy snows… Still tons to work out on this system….For now am going to run with first track of this system….Either way this system will be a fast hitter…Sunday we should see mostly sunny skies before a clipper like system brings in a shot a light snow, and more cold air.

***YOUR SHORT/MIDDLE TERM FORECAST***

TODAY. Increasing clouds. Highs 30 to 35

TONIGHT. Cloudy snow likely. Snow accumulations from half to an inch possible. Lows 27 to 30.

THURSDAY. Cloudy snow likely. Snow accumulations one to two inches possible in the morning. Highs around 30.

THURSDAY NIGHT. Clear lows 10 to 15

FRIDAY. Sunny highs 24 to 27

FRIDAY NIGHT. Clear lows 20 to 25

SATURDAY. Cloudy a chance of snow, highs around 30

SATURDAY NIGHT. Cloudy a chance of snow, lows around 20

SUNDAY. Partly sunny highs 20 to 25

SUNDAY NIGHT. Partly cloudy than mostly cloudy with a chance of snow lows 10 to 15

MONDAY. Cloudy with a chance of snow highs 20 to 25

MONDAY NIGHT. Mostly cloudy cold lows 5 to 10

TUESDAY. Partly cloudy highs 17 to 22

NOTE THERE WILL NOT BE A LONG TERM FORECAST ISSUED ATTM, AS TIME DOES NOT ALLOW FOR IT.

Thanksgiving weekend forecast for Western/Northwestern WI

2011-11-24T09:15:00.000-06:00

Forecast will stand for now. Previous forecaster did make a few changes…..Will leave them stand….We still have to keep an eye on Saturday’s storm system. If colder air can rush in soon enough, the rain still could mix with a changeover to all snow on Saturday…… If indeed this does happen a few inches of snow will be possible….

Today... will be a very nice day for the FA….. Highs today under sunny skies will range from the upper 40s North to upper 40s to around 50 in my Central FA..Lower to middle 50s in my Southern FA..

Tonight... Will star Partly cloudy skies throughout much of the FA….. Fog will be again possible up North… Lows tonight throttle back into the middle to lower 30s area wide…..

Friday... should be a cloudy day hence have lowered temps to range from the upper 40s North and Central to the lower 50s South….

Friday night... Rain moves into the area….Look for rain to be mixed with snow in our Northern parts of the FA, while plain old rain for my Central and Southern areas… Lows middle 30s up North, upper 30s Central. Lower 40s South.

Saturday.... Rain for most of the area….Will run with rain and snow North changing to all snow…. Will keep the Central and Southern area rain…May update this to add rain/snow mix in my Central area for Saturday as well….

Saturday night…. Snow North…Rain/snow mix than changing over to all snow Central…. Rain South with some mix of snow before ending…..

Sunday…. Looks to cooler under sunny skies Highs lower to middle 30s for the whole FA……

Note….Extend forecast will have major updates to it tomorrow…..

Temps at 9 AM range from the upper 30s to lower 40s….

Happy Thanksgiving everyone…..

Tweaked forecast some

2011-11-23T23:16:00.000-06:00

Decided to tweak ongoing forecast. Main tweaking was done for Saturday. Will leave everything else intact.
So here is the latest thinking. Do to latest model runs I have decided to push the rain changing to snow to Saturday night. This system does not apear to be a big deal. Little or no snow accumulations are forecasted as of now.Colder air is forecasted to mix in a little to late with this system.System did look better on past computer runs,that flizzed out. So the Holiday travel plans should be in good shape with no major problems. Down in our far Southern forecast area the rain may not even mix with snow before it ends.Still think Dirk will have to fine tune all this tomorrow or Friday.
FORECASTER/PAUL.

The forecast for Western/Northwestern WI.

2011-11-23T10:52:00.001-06:00

Forecast has been tweaked some.See Saturday and Saturday night. I did leave the forecast disucussion as is, see about for updated forecast short term forecast discussion for this weekend. Paul

Forecast problems…. Will be the cloud cover and areas of fog…Vis satellite shows most of the FA locked under clouds and fog…Some clearing noted over Burnett County, however more cloud back in MN… Thinking is to run with mostly cloudy to pc cloudy skies.. May be a storm system to impact the area for Friday night through Saturday evening…More detail on this below.

***CURRNET CONDITIONS***

At 10 AM skies are cloudy at all stations with some fog being reported as well….Temps range from the middle 30s to upper 30s….Winds range from 7 to 13 MPH out of the Southwest….

***SHORT TERM/MIDDLE TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION***

Looking at the SFC charts we find a 1001 MB low pressure over Southern part of NY State with a cold front extending down into the FL panhandle than out into the GOM….This system should pose problems for parts of VT,NH, and ME for Thanksgiving day…Looks like that area could see 4 to 8 inches of snow…..Meanwhile a ridge of high pressure is still locked in place through the upper Midwest down into the Central and Southwestern States…..Large storm system is found over the Northwest Pacific Coast states….Fog and low clouds for today as we talked about earlier…..Still have a gut feeling that we should run with Mostly cloudy skies as we have a inversion in place the warm air aloft and the melting snow pack has been keeping us cloudy and foggy the last few days….Really see no reason why this won’t stay the rule for today…Models really aren’t doing so great with this….Thanksgiving day Am still banking on sunny skies…This will allow temps to reach into the middle to upper 40s throughout the FA…Most of the snowpack should be depleted by then…Record highs for Thanksgiving day is 55…That record should remain safe…There could be a few 50 degree readings in my far Southern parts of the FA….Cold front starts to drop into the FA for Friday so with more clouds around will lower temps from Thanksgiving day…Will run with lower 40s to middle 40s….Late Friday night and Saturday….Low pressure is forecasted to form along the cold front over the Twin Cities to EAU Claire…..Than is forecasted to move towards the Northeast….Will run with plain old rain for Friday night…Then mix and change the rain to all snow for Saturday for my Central and Northern areas…Will stay all rain in my Southern areas until late Saturday night then should see the rain mix with snow down there….There could be several inches of snow….Thinking is should be like last weekend’s storm system….Still to early to know for sure, model are in good agreement on it, some timing issues and the track is still a little unclear….If this pans out as the models are forecasting attm this system could have an impact of travel plans back home…We will need to watch this very close……Will not chance the forecast for Tuesday as models not have a good agreement of this next system see long term discussion for info on this….

***YOUR SHORT/MIDDLE TERM FORECAST***
WEDNESDAY. Mostly cloudy may see some breaks from time to time…Highs 38 to 43

WEDNESDAY NIGHT. Areas of fog partly cloudy.. Lows 28 to 34

THANKSGIVING DAY. Sunny highs 44 to 48

THURSDAY NIGHT. Increasing clouds, lows 30 to 35

FRIDAY. Cloudy. Highs 40 to 45

FRIDAY NIGHT. Cloudy a chance of rain. Lows 34 to 38

SATURDAY. Cloudy with a chance of rain. Highs 35 to 40 than falling.

SATURDAY NIGHT. Cloudy a chance of rain mixing with and changing over to light snow,Little or no accumulations. lows 25 to 30

SUNDAY. PC highs 30 to 35.

MONDAY. Partly cloudy 30 to 35.

MONDAY NIGHT. Cloudy with a chance of snow lows 23 to 26

TUESDAY. Cloudy chance of snow. 28 to 30

TUESDAY NIGHT. Chance of snow lows 20 to 25

***LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FROM THE 28TH THROUGH DEC 9TH***

Models have been all over the place on a low pressure system that is forecasted to form in MS…ECMWF moves the low Northeast.GFS on the other hand forms the low a little more to East/Northeast then moves the low to OH them retrogrades it back to the Northwest into Lake MI, GEM is more in the line of thinking as ECMWF…..So with this being so unclear we have decided not to change the first part of the long term forecast…Will give it a few more days to decide if we need to make changes…..Will keep a slight chance of snow going from the 1ts through the 4th as a cold front is swept into the areas from a deepening low pressure system to our North up in Canada. We may need to bump up the temps a little, again we won’t do that just yet as this is the first time one model is showing temps to be warmer, while the others keep the temps forecasted below the same...

***YOUR LONG TERM FORECAST***

30th. Snow ending highs 25 to 30 lows 15 to 20

1st . Slight chance of Snow highs 20 to 25 lows 15 to 20

2nd. Slight chance of Snow highs 20 to 25 lows 1o to 15

3rd Snow highs 20 to 25 lows 10 to 15

4th . Slight chance of snow highs 20 to 25 lows 8 to 13

5th.. Dry highs 15 to 20 lows 5 to 10

6th. Dry highs 15 to 20 lows 10 15

7th .Dry highs 15 to 20 lows 5 to 10

8th. Dry 20 to 25 lows 10 to 15

9th . Dry 20 to 25 lows 10 to 15.

The forecast for Western and Northwestern WI

2011-11-21T12:50:00.000-06:00

Like the warm fall we have been having overall? Then you will like this forecast, snow lovers hang in there. Overall temps will be above normal with little rain or snow this week….Next shot of rain comes in about Friday, more details on that below…

***CURRENT CONDITIONS***
At noon skies are cloudy through most of the FA Ashland is reporting sunny skies as of now..Satellite does show this….Temps are in the middle 20s to lower 30s…..Winds are light from the S/SW.
***SHORT AND MIDDLE TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION***
Here is the SFC map.

Ridge of high pressure is sitting over head, however it remains cloudy as an inversion has also setup overhead….Should see more clouds than sun today….Will keep clouds in forecast for tonight…Temps going to be tricky where there is a snowpack temps will remain cooler than other areas…Temps should remain in check with tonight’s clouds however if any breaks do happen over the snowpack areas temps could dive into the teens…For now will run with upper teens to lower 20s. That should cover the bases rather well…..Tomorrow will run with partly cloudy skies to account for the Southern system as it may try to spread more clouds into the area RH fields off the 850 and 700 MB charts shows this rather well. Tuesday we see a and weak low pressure system over Canada this will start to drag a warm front towards and through the FA Wednesday….This will allow for temps to warn into the 40s could see some 50 degree reading in my far Southern areas…Looks like the record highs will be safe!. Thanksgiving day looks to be warm and sunny….Next chance of precip come in for Friday as a cold front slowly starts to work this way. Really not to thrilled about rain or snow chances attm…Temps will take a dive…. So to recap temps will be above norms this week and through the Thanksgiving weekend…Slight chance of precip…Holiday travel plans around the area look to be in good shape with no big rain or snow makers…..

***YOUR SHORT TERM/MIDDLE TERM FORECAST***

TODAY. Cloudy highs 30 to 35

TONIGHT. Cloudy lows 19 to 22

TUESDAY. PC highs 30 to 32.

TUESDAY NIGHT. Clear lows 19 to 21

WEDNESDAY. Sunny highs 35 to 40

WEDNESDAY NIGHT. Clear lows 24 to 28

THANKSGIVING DAY. Sunny highs 28 to 43

THURSDAY NIGHT. Increasing clouds, lows 30 to 35

FRIDAY. Cloudy with a slight chance of rain showers. Highs 40 to 45

FRIDAY NIGHT. Cloudy slight chance of rain mixing with some snow. Lows 30 to 35

SATURDAY. Cloudy rain mixing with and changing to light snow showers. Highs 35 to 40 than falling.

SATURDAY NIGHT. Cloudy light snow showers ending, lows 23 to 27

SUNDAY. PC highs 30 to 35.

***LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION MONDAY 28 THROUGH WEDNESDAY DEC 7TH***

Confidence levels are really low if the precip forecast….Levels are a little better in the temps…..Long range models are showing a low pressure system to take hold of the FA starting Monday the 28th and traveling around upper Midwest through the 3rd of Dec…. Models want to cutoff this low…If this does indeed happen we could be looking a long period of snow…Temps are forecasted to fall well below norms through the long range…..Most likely this long term forecasted will be updated….

***YOUR LONG TERM FORECAST***

28th. Rain/snow changing to all snow…Highs 30 to 35 lows 20 to 25

29th snow may be mixed with rain off and on…Highs 30 to 35 lows 20 to 25

30th. Snow highs 25 to 30 lows 15 to 20

1st . Snow highs 20 to 25 lows 15 to 20

2nd Snow highs 20 to 25 lows 1o to 15

3rd Snow highs 20 to 25 lows 10 to 15

4th . Dry highs 20 to 25 lows 8 to 13

5th.. Dry highs 15 to 20 lows 5 to 10

6th. Dry highs 15 to 20 lows 10 15

7th .Dry highs 15 to 20 lows 5 to 10

More pictures

2011-11-20T11:14:00.000-06:00

I took these this morning here at the office...Still thinking about heading back North to get more pictures from up there,we shall see on that one....

8 deer in the above picture...

11/19/2011 winter storm chase

2011-11-19T22:48:00.000-06:00

Today was very interesting winter storm chase....I started at Trego and ended up heading to Gordon...Light snow started to fall around 12:19 PM just North of Trego....I decided to go further North...Once the heavy started it got very heavy very fast...Went to like 5 to 6 inches of snow like in a matter of an hour it seemed liked....53 was in bad condition before,well that very heavy snow made it worse....Snowflakes were big as half dollars...Could hardly see in front of you...The pictures I took in those conditions were nothing but crappy...All white...Would have been ok if I was close enough to buildings or something....Decided to head back South, as I didn't have nothing with me to stay the night any where....Saw lots of accidents one roll over by Spooner...Got home and now I'm able to post the pictures and videos from today....We ended up with 3 inches of snow back here at the office....

Video links below.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0v8xXWB1qVQ

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3XwiiRBs46s

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tRNsex2YymI

Updated snowfall forecast

2011-11-18T10:26:00.000-06:00

Based on the latest data we have decided to lower the snowfall amounts across the board....

Snowfall map.

2011-11-17T16:51:00.000-06:00

From the latest data we looked at.Here is our total snowfall map, valid from Saturday through early Sunday morning. If drier air works off of Lake Superior some of those totals will be much lower than forecasted....Also could see LES form as the low pushes into the UP of MI as winds become Northerly/Northwesterly...Parts of the South shore snow belt could pick up more than 8 inches.....Looks like the track is rather set of this low pressure system...Models have been doing a rather good job on this storm system....Now if this system slows more we will have to up the snowfall amount across the board...Something we will be watching very close.

Wisconsin 2011 tornadoes.

2011-11-16T18:59:00.000-06:00

Total Wisconsin tornadoes for 2011 is at 38 which is above normal…..Wisconsin normally sees an average of 23 tornadoes per year…So we are 15 tornadoes above normal….

The FA saw a grand total of 5 tornadoes….Lets break this down even more, by the Counties that saw tornadoes, along with their ratings.

***BARRON COUNTY***

1 Tornado on 05/22/2011 was rated an EF1.

***EAU CLAIRE COUNTY***

2 Tornadoes… Both rated EF1 both happened on 04/10/2011

***DOUGLAS COUNTY***

1 Tornado this was rated as an EF2…This tornado happened on 07/01/2011

***POLK COUNTY***

1 Tornado, this was rated as an EF0….This tornado happened on 07/19/2011

The strongest tornado happened in Douglas County, while the weakest tornado was found over in Polk County.

***NOTICE***
All of the above info comes from the NWS....

Another day with snow.

2011-11-16T14:42:00.000-06:00

Yesterday we had thundersnow in the afternoon...Today we had light snow/flurries.....That will tick one person off I know...Oh well to BAD!!

November 10th snowfall

2011-11-16T09:14:00.000-06:00

On the early morning hours of November 10th we picked up 1 inch of snowfall....Here are a few pictures of it....More snow on the way for this weekend, our forecast will be issued today or this evening.

Snowfall forecast map.

2011-11-07T11:29:00.000-06:00

Here is the latest thinking on the forecasted snow amounts that are possible...This could change later this evening,however as of right now this is how it appears to be setting up.

Accumulating snows.

2011-11-07T11:06:00.000-06:00

Forecast below will stand as is....Accumulating snows looking better for parts of the FA...Rain and snow showers a forecasted to form late tonight rain should become all snow after 3 AM though not forecasting much in the way of accumulations, some snow may accumulate which will cause slushy roads and sidewalks.Should be less than an inch...Snow is forecasted to mix back with rain on Tuesday mainly in the afternoon...Rain/snow mixture is forecasted to change back to all snow....Several inches of snow is possible....Still really hard to pinpoint the exact amounts attm, but we will give it a stab....People traveling through the area should keep up on the latest forecast on this possible winter storm to effect parts of the FA..... Main areas that could be effected as of right now....Looks like points east of a Cumberland, Menomonie, and Durand line.... This looks to be the area with the best chance at seeing over 4 inches of snow...Meanwhile points West of said line still should see some accumulating snow....Here we should see 1 to 3 inches of snow...Further South looks to be rain/snow mixture, however depending on the exact track of the low and how fast cold air can mix into this area, will be the factor on how much snow will accumulate if any at all. Again it is really hard at this point to pin down the exact amounts and areas, but as of the latest computer model guidance this is how it stands right now...

Looking back at October

2011-11-05T20:00:00.002-05:00

Looking back at October, we had warmer than normal temps…This mainly happen in the first part of October……The rest October we saw a drop in temps….We had two thunderstorm days….

On the 12 we had a thunderstorm….On the 27 we had a thunderstorm that did mix and change to snow…So we had our first thundersnow of the season…..We had a trace of snow which came on the 27th the ground did get white for a little….So how did this past October compare to last October…Oct 2010 we had two thunderstorm days…We had ½ of snow which fell on the early morning hours of the 27th … So for the most part this past October was really no surprises….All around a near normal October…..

Time lapse sunset

2011-11-05T18:31:00.000-05:00

Click link to see the time lapse vid.
http://makeagif.com/i/Jf9AG3

Snow looking more likely for Tuesday night into early Wednesday..Forecast below.

2011-11-05T10:33:00.000-05:00

Forecast concerns….This weekend….Windy conditions…Rain snow for Tuesday through early Wednesday…..

***CURRENT CONDITIONS***
At 10 AM all stations are reporting PC to sunny skies….Temps range from the low 40s to middle 40s….Winds from the South/Southeast from 9 to 21 MPH with gusts ranging from 15 to 28 MPH.

***SHORT & MIDDLE TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION***
Really did change too much with ongoing forecast….Did Warm temps up a little for Monday….. Ridge of high pressure from upstate New York down to MS will still keep our skies clear through today…. Meanwhile a system out in Western SD into CO will gets its act together as it pushes into Canada..Pressure gradients have already tightened up over the early morning hours….See no reason why this mixing down won’t hold strong….So today will be a hold onto your hat day, in fact the whole weekend shall be like that….. Low pressure deepens to around 992 MBS as it heads into Canada, this will also slam a cold front into the area on Sunday….Still could see a few showers here and there, won’t be nothing to write home about though….Our next system to effect the area looks to be stronger than forecasted last night per ECMWF…..What is interesting is that GFS and NAM keep a Southerly track on this system, while ECMWF holds onto the same track…. Looking back at last winter we saw this same setup with the models….I would think GFS and NAM will come around to ECMWF’s thinking…So with that said will run with the old faithful….We see a 1004 low pressure system taking shape over Northwestern TX Monday night, this low is forecasted to push into Southeast KS late Monday night….Then is forecasted to track up into South Central WI then into the UP of MI as it does it is forecasted to strengthen to 997 MBS…..So another wind jammer for Tuesday night through Wednesday….Moisture looks to be no problem with this system….Precip type is looking better for all snow for parts of WI…..Snow line should setup from Central Pierce to Southern Dunn and Chippewa Counties….Counties South of this line should remain all rain, however may end as some light snow….Counties North of this line should remain all snow….Will start off with a rain snow mix……Way to early to start to talk about snowfall amounts…Once again I used the ECMWF model as this seems to be the model of choice…NAM and GFS are way to South…Doing some studies from last winter systems and looking at how each model handled the storms…ECMWF model won hands down….We see this trend showing up once again…..

***YOUR SHORT/MIDDLE TERM FORECAST**

TODAY & NIGHT…Partly cloudy highs 50 to 55.Tonight slight chance of showers lows 35 to 40..Windy, winds from the South/Southeast 15 to 20 MPH with gusts up to 30 MPH.

SUNDAY…Cloudy slight chance of showers. Highs 45 to 50…Still windy…Winds 10 to 20 MPH with gusts up to 30 MPH from the Southwest..

SUNDAY NIGHT… Clearing lows 28 to 32.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT… Dry highs 40 to 45 lows 28 to 32.

TUESDAY….Increasing clouds rain/snow late highs 40 to 43

TUESDAY NIGHT. rain/ snow changing to all snow. Lows 30 to 32

WEDNESDAY. a chance of snow in the morning…. Highs 32 to 35.

WENDESDAY NIGHT. Clearing lows 25 to 30.

THUR THROUGH FRIDAY… DRY highs in the middle 30s to lower 40s while lows fall to the lower 20s to around 30 by Friday night.

***LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION SAT 12 THROUGH MONDAY 21st ***

This time frame will be known as the mini cold snap, also looks like we could be dealing with another winter storm around the 15th/16th time frame….GFS is way out to lunch on the track and keeps warmer air in place….Meanwhile ECWMF keeps the track right on target to give us a good dump of snow...This far out I won’t bet the farm on anything….We will fine tune this as we get closer to this time frame….

Forecast for Western/Northwestern WI

2011-11-04T22:44:00.000-05:00

Forecast concerns….Windy conditions throughout the weekend, along with fire weather danger...Have ran with a slight chance of rain showers for Sunday…Bigger story will be the midweek storm system, along with cooler temps.

***CURRENT CONDITIONS***

Skies are clear and temps are in the upper 30s to lower 40s across the area….Winds range from 3 to 7 MPH with some stations reporting gusts up to 18 MPH.

***SHORT/MIDDLE TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION***

FA still locked under a rather large area of high pressure. Meanwhile Storm system out West will track into Canada through the weekend this is forecasted to drag a cold front into and through the area Sunday night into early Monday morning….Not a lot of moisture for said front to work with so will run with just a slight chance of rain showers…Pressure gradients will increase between the high out East and the low pushing into Canada..Winds for Saturday and Sunday could range from 10 to 20 MPH with gusts up to 30 MPH….Temps will remain warm with lower to middle 50s on Saturday…Did cut them to 45 to 50 for Sunday with the clouds around. We turn our concerns to midweek…Model are having somewhat have disagreement on the track of the system…GFS is still a little South to really impact the area, Meanwhile ECMWF model is more North if this pans out it could give my Central and Northern areas snow while my Southern areas stay rain for the most part with some snow mixing in from time to time….GFS would keep this all rain even on it Southerly and Easterly track…..Will run with the ECMWF model as this had the best handle on winter storms in the past. Looks like another few dry days on tap by weeks end….

***YOUR SHORT/MIDDLE TERM FORECAST**

Tonight… Clear lows 28 to 32. Winds South 5 to 10 MPH

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT… Clear highs 50 to 55 lows 35 to 40..Windy, winds 15 to 20 MPH with gusts up to 30 MPH.

SUNDAY…Cloudy slight chance of rain.Highs 45 to 50…Still windy…Winds 10 to 20 MPH with gusts up to 30 MPH from the Southwest..

SUNDAY NIGHT… Clearing lows 28 to 32.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT… Dry highs 38 to 42 lows 28 to 32.

TUESDAY….Increasing clouds rain/snow late highs 40 to 43

TUESDAY NIGHT. rain snow changing to all snow. Lows 30 to 32

WEDNESDAY. a chance of snow may be mixed with some rain at times…. Highs 32 to 35.

WENDESDAY NIGHT. Clearing lows 25 to 30.

THUR THROUGH FRIDAY… DRY highs in the middle 30s to lower 40s while lows fall to the lower 20s to around 30 by Friday night.

***LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION SAT 12 through Sun 20th***

Main story here will be the temps as they will be getting much colder….Possible snow storm comes into play around the 17/20 time frame….Models are having a hard time with this system so won’t really go into much details on it just yet,as we got time to watch to see how the models forecast this……..Temps will be falling into the lower to middle teens with highs falling into the 20 to 25 range

Small vids from todays sleet and snow event

2011-10-27T17:37:00.000-05:00

Here are some clips of the video I took day of the sleet and snow event we had this afternoon....
Can even mark down another thunderstorm day for October!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3KZeG97-MvU
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SEMRvz9j8S4

rain, thunder,Sleet,and snow

2011-10-27T16:08:00.000-05:00

We had it all today as the rain started there was some thunder with it...Rain changed over to sleet and some snow rather fast...Temps took a dive into the 30s once the precip started...Here are a few pictures from today.

October snow is it rare or not?

2011-10-14T10:31:00.000-05:00

Snow in October, how rare or un-rare is it?

Looking back at the year of 2009 we had we had 5 snow days….Days that had snow days are as follows.

Oct 10… 1/4'”

Oct 12…. 3.30”

Oct 15… 2.00”

Oct 23 and early morning hours of the 24 for a total of….3.75”

Monthly total was 9.30” of snow for 2009..

See this link for October 2009 posts and pictures.

http://dirksforecastingcenter.blogspot.com/2009_10_01_archive.html

Look back at the year of 2010 we had 1 snow day.

Oct 27 we picked up ½” of snow…..

So really it is not rare to see snow in October, its rather normal…What is rare is the Halloween blizzard of 1991.. So don’t be fooled by anyone saying “snow in October is rare”

Forecast will stand as is

2011-10-14T09:06:00.000-05:00

Forecast below will stand as is. No change is planed attm.

The forecast for Western & Northwestern WI.

2011-10-12T11:23:00.000-05:00

Forecast looks to be a rather wet one starting this afternoon and lasting through Thursday evening….Then we shall get into another dry cycle from Friday through the weekend
Will bring a chance of showers back into the forecast early next week and hold the chances right through the first part of the long term forecast…Still feel there is no chance of snow in the upper Midwest, though ECMWF model is hinting at some rain snow mix for Monday night….Note this just showed up so I won’t jump on the wagon right now…We will keep watching trends to see if GFS model also switches to a Southerly track of this system….Thinking is if a rain snow mix is to occur it would be over far Northern MN…. We will watch this…..For now will leave snow mix out of the forecast!. The long term we do see our better chance at a rain mix snow for the 26th and early part of the 27th see long term dis.& forecast for that.

***CURRENT CONDITIONS***

At 11 AM radar is showing showers and thunderstorms over parts of MN.This areas of showers and storms is tracking toward the North/Northwest this should miss the area, however there is another batch of showers and thunderstorms over Eastern IA this is moving North wards this will effect the area later this afternoon.
Temps for the most part are in the middle 60s….Skies are partly cloudy, winds from the South from 5 to 12 MPH...
Here is the SFC weather map for today.

***SHORT & AND MIDDLE TERM DISCUSSION***

The main problem we will deal with during this period will be the first part then the later part…
One short wave moving North through MN this won’t effect the local FA….The next short wave is already moving into Southwestern MN…Meanwhile we find a low pressure system Just North of Central ND and a trailing cold front into Western MN down into far Northwestern KS. This cold front is forecasted to move into Cental MN this afternoon…This will bring in showers and thunderstorms….LI is running -1 to -2 along with Cape of 1000 to 1400 J/KG…..This system will be rather slow to move out,also another weak low/ short wave is forecasted to form over Southwestern IA..This is forecasted to run up along the frontal boundary into Southwestern WI early tomorrow morning…A secondary cold front is forecasted to push into the FA late Thursday night early Friday morning…So will keep showers ongoing through Friday morning, however will not run with thunderstorm wording after midnight tonight. Looks like everything is coming together for some healthy rainfall amount through much of MN and WI….Looks like 1.00” of rain will be likely from Washburn County down through Pepin County of WI, into Wabasha into Central Winona into Houston Counties of MN points West of this line should see from 0.25 up to 0.75 inches of rain….The winners of this rain shall be found from Parts of Rusk County down through Chippewa EAU, Clark, Jackson, Trempealeau La Crosse, Monroe,Vernon Counties of WI back in far Northwestern IA Counties…Here we could see rainfall amount close in on 1.25 to 1.50 inches of rain.
Friday this system clears the area, winds should be on the increase as we see some good mixing down could see winds gust close to 30 MPH for a time….The weekend looks to be dry and nice temps slightly below normal under pc skies….Monday should be dry for most of the day, Monday night we do see a chance of showers coming back into the forecast….

***YOUR SHORT & MIDDLE TERM FORECAST***

TODAY…. Showers and thunderstorms this afternoon…Highs 65 to 70. S/SE winds 5 to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT… Showers and thunderstorms before midnight, then showers lows 50 to 55. Light winds.

THURSDAY… Showers highs 55 to 60.W/NW 5 to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT… Showers ending, lows around 40 W/NW 5 to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY…. PC windy highs 50 to 55. Winds W/NW 10 to 20 MPH with gusts from 25 to 30 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT… PC lows 35 to 40.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy highs in the 50s lows in the 30s to 40s.

MONDAY…. PC highs 50 to 55.

MONDAY NIGHT… Chance of showers lows 35 to 40

TUESDAY…. Chance of showers…. Highs 45 to 50 lows 30 to 35.

***LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION THE 19th THROUGH THE 28TH ***

Main story here will be the cold temps…We will see temps fall to below norms through this period…There will be a chance of rain showers on the 19th and early morning hours of the 20th then a dry spell from the 20th through 23….With another shot of rain showers from the 25th through the 27th .....The the late night of the 26th and early morning hours of the 27 we could see out first snow flakes of the season….This would not come as a shock as last year we picked up a 0.25 inches of snow see picture below the long term forecast…..We will have to watch this… We will add snow mix wording into the forecast to account for this….

***LONG TERM FORECAST***

19TH … Cloudy a chance of showers. Highs 40 to 45 lows in the 30s.

20th Early morning showers,than dry highs in the 40s lows in the 30s

21st THOUGH the 24th ….Dry highs 45 to 50 lows 35 to 40.

25th … A chance of showers in the late in the day. Highs 45 to 50 lows 35 to 40.

26th. Chance of showers highs 45 to 50…. Overnight showers possibly mixing with snow lows 30 to 35

27th chance of showers possibly mix with snow in the morning hours… Highs 40 to 45 lows 30 to 35.

28th Dry highs in the 40s lows in the 30s.

Here are two pictures from last year when we had our first snowfall of the season.

Time to debunk/ Time to get the real facts out!

2011-10-10T17:44:00.003-05:00

Where to start….Well let’s start here…I have heard and or read about how people are calling this last heat wave …. Unbelievable, unheard of, unreal and so on…. Time to debunk with the real facts!

This sure is not what I would call this!!.....In fact this is by far not that! Ok time to do some debunking…..Ok here is what I’m going to do I will list every day with the Average high and low along with the mean temps for that day, will also list the record highs and lows for that day…..This is for Rice Lake only!!! However with this last heat wave and doing some checking for other cities we found some record breaking temps however nothing we would call unbelievable, unheard of and unreal and so on…..This warm spell should not have come to a surprise to anyone, as our forecast for the fall was calling for above average temps….

OCTOBER.

1. High 63. Low 41. Mean 52… Record high/low… 87 1976/ 23 1966

2. 62 40 51 86 1976/ 14 1974

3. 62 40 51 85 1976/ 20 2003

4. 61 40 51 83 1997/ 21 1952

5. 61 39 50 78 1963/ 23 1952...Did break this had a high of 82

6. 61 39 50 81 1963/ 20 1976

7. 60 39 49 85 2007/ 20 2001

8. 60 38 49 82 2007/ 24 1976

9. 59 38 49 81 2010/ 22 2000………we did tie this today.(2011)

10. 59 38 48 80 2003/ 17 1964

11. 58 37 48 77 1955/ 21 1987

12. 58 37 48 77 1956/ 22 2006

13. 58 37 47 83 1995/ 20 1965

14. 57 36 47 81 1962/ 20 1978

15. 57 36 46 82 1968/ 20 2006

16. 56 36 46 82 1968/ 18 1952

17. 56 35 46 77 1953/ 18 1952

18. 55 35 45 85 1965/ 14 1972

19. 55 35 45 80 1965/ 11 1972

20. 54 34 44 81 1953/ 15 1952

21. 54 34 44 79 1953/ 17 1960

22. 53 34 44 73 1963/ 14 1981

23. 53 34 43 79 1963/ 13 1969

24. 52 33 43 76 1963/ 13 1981

25. 52 33 42 78 1989/ 19 1962

26. 51 33 42 78 1989/ 9 1981

27. 51 32 42 72 1989/ 9 1976

28. 50 32 41 67 1986/ 11 1967

29. 50 32 41 67 1956/ 15 1988

30. 49 31 40 70 2004/ 14 1988

31. 49 31 40 69 2008/ 13 1996

So as one can see this past heat wave was not unbelievable, unheard of, and unreal…..If we would have 90s then the those words would have fit….Sorry not this time around they don’t…..This is typical of a year when La Nina is rebuilding ….Just like last fall and more like last October….Last October we had our first snow fall on the 27th ……Last October this same time we were basking in temps in the 70s so this October is about the same as last year just a little warmer….

So don’t believe everything you read or hear, you can always count on us for the facts, not some miss guided info with a few facts that get blowing out of proration…..

Forecast update.

2011-10-08T14:44:00.000-05:00

Really didn't change much in the ongoing forecast.Did up temps some record highs could be possible today.Have went with sunny to partly cloudy skies per trend on the vis satellite.Will hold that through Sunday.Though we should see some more clouds begin to filter back in as we head into the late afternoon and evening. Rest of the forecast is great standing and will not reissue.
To recap.
Bumped temps up some for today and tomorrow. Removed the mostly cloudy skies and replaced it with sunny to partly cloudy skies.
Forecaster/ Paul

The forecast for Western & Northwestern WI.

2011-10-08T10:16:00.001-05:00

Forecast concerns…. To run with PC or MC wording for today….Do we bring in shower wording to the forecast sooner than previous forecast has…How long to keep showers going….No matter what we hash out one thing is for sure, we are about to get knocked back into reality this coming work week…. Longer term looks to be cold…Still no snow is foreseen across the upper Midwest….. Time to hash all the concerns out….

***CURRENT CONDTIONS***

Map below shows the current SFC frontal boundaries and pressure systems….

At 10 AM temps are in the upper 60s to low 70s, under cloudy skies….Winds are still rather gusty out of the S/SW from 12 to 17 MPH with gusts up to 20 to 22 MPH….Dewpoint temps lower to middle 50s.

Radar is showing some showers and a few thunderstorms over MN... They are tracking towards the Northeast around 50 to 60 kts....We will have to watch this in case they do clip our far Northwestern Counties,though highly unlikely.....

***SHORT/MIDDLE TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION***

Large ridge of high pressure is centered over the Eastern states, however this still has a hold on our weather…This has kept the cold front out over MN along with showers and thunderstorms….. Looking at the 500 MB chart we find ridging out East and far West with a rather large trough throughout the Rockies into the Southwestern States…. We find a low pressure system just South of Hudson Bay Canada, and another upper level low centered over western CO….This is all evident on the water vapor imagery, and on the RCU model, Nam is rather close to with these features…GFS 00z run was a little off, however it 06z run is rather close now….Cold front is stalled out over MN and we see this frontal boundary camping over there today and tonight…In fact the cold front won’t really reach our FA until Sunday night/early Monday…Then it is forecasted to lift back North as a warm front…Meanwhile a SFC low pressure is forecasted to lift North into Northwestern MN… This is forecasted to drag another cold front into Western MN by late Sunday night into early Monday morning. This cold front shall push through the area late Monday afternoon…See no reason not to run with some rain showers….Temps really won’t take a dive until another cold front races towards and through the area by midweek….Temps are forecasted to fall back to near or slightly below normal by then…Temps may not even make it out of the 40s by Friday…..
Thought about keep temps in range of the last few days, however with the clouds around I will knock them down to the 70 to 75 range….Now if clouds thin out and we get more sunshine temps will not have a problem heading for the upper 70s to lower 80s once again, this will hold true for tomorrow as well….Have decided to pull rain chances from tonight and Sunday/Sunday night and Monday….We did talk about that in the previous forecast below.

***YOUR SHORT/MIDDLE TERM FORECAST***

TODAY THROUGH MONDAY…..Sunny to partly cloudy, highs 77 to 82 with lows ranging from 50 to 60.

MONDAY NIGHT… Slight chance of showers, lows 50 to 55.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of showers… Highs 60 to 70 lows 50 to 55.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers, maybe a thunderstorm.. Highs 65 to 70 lows 45 to 50.

THUR/THUR NIGHT… Partly cloudy… Highs 55 to 60 lows 35 to 40.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy… Highs 45 to 50… Lows 30 to 35.

***LONG TERM FORECAST 15TH THROUGH THE 24TH ***

Main story in this period shall be the temps, as we will drop to well below normal for highs….There shall be off and on chances of showers throughout the period…. The 16 through the 18 and then once again on the 20th and 21st then on the 22nd…. Really hard to time shower chances this far out and long term models aren’t really agreeing…. One thing is for certain is no snow is forecasted for the upper Midwest!!..... The 540 line remains well to the North of us, the one day that is does drop into the area the moisture is already gone….

***YOUR LONG TERM FORECAST***

15TH…. Dry highs 40 to 45 lows 30 to 35

16th…. Chance of showers highs 45 to 50 lows 35 to 40

17th….. Morning showers than dry highs 40 to 45 lows 25 to 30

18th… slight chance of showers highs 40 to 45 lows 30 to 35

19th … Dry highs 45 to 50 lows 35 to 40

20th….. Slight chance of showers highs 45 to 50 lows 30 to 35

21st ….. Slight chance of showers highs 45 to 50 lows 35 to 40

22nd….. Dry highs 45 to 50 lows 35 to 40

23rd….. Chance of showers highs 45 to 50 lows 35 to 40

23th….. Dry highs 45 to 50 lows 35 to 40.

Bye bye fall colors!RIP fall 2011!!

2011-10-07T19:02:00.000-05:00

Fall colors are for the most part gone...Strong winds today blew most of the leaves off the trees...Winds gusting up to 45 MPH this afternoon into this early evening...Had some roof damge here at the office and some small trees went down...\
Pictures below were taken this morning before the winds hit...Now there are no leaves!

The 2011/2012 winter forecast.

2011-10-03T08:54:00.000-05:00

La Nina is back and is growing….The tropic Pacific Ocean has been cooling back off…So you ask what does this mean for the local FA? Well remember last year we had record breaking snows and record breaking cold temps…

This shall be the case once again this year….Before we get to our local area, let’s take a look at the CONUS first….

With La Nina forecasted to become stronger as we head towards winter here is out thinking…Will also based this forecast on last winter’s setup. We threw out the warm trend we are currently in as this was the same setup last year at this time….

This forecast period runs from Nov through Mar…. This is the overall outlook. This is based on the average how on the this winter will end up being once the temps and precip is averaged out…..

Ok first map is our precip outlook for the CONUS…

The map below is our temp outlook for the CONUS…

Now for the local area…. The first map is out snowfall outlook map.

The map below is out temp outlook.

We are forecasting above normal snowfall throughout much of the area,with below normal snowfall From just South of a Twin Cities MN to Durand WI line....We are forecasting a colder winter throughout the whole area.....Once again this is how the winter is forecasted to average out....

The forecast for Western & Northwestern WI

2011-10-03T07:58:00.000-05:00

Nice warm dry forecast…Temps should be above normal for this time of year, with dry conditions….This will lead to a fire danger…. Next chance of showers comes in for the weekend,looks slim as or right now…..

The mild and dry conditions will camp out over the FA this week and next week. Does look like a weather pattern chance is in store for the end of the long term forecast.

***CURRENT CONDITIONS***

At 7 AM temps range from the middle 30s North to the middle 40s South and West….Skies are clear with light to calm winds….Some fog being reported at a few stations.

***SHORT AND MIDDLE TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION***

Sure is not much to talk about in this period… Large ridge of high pressure will camp out over the area this week…. This will allow for dry and mild conditions to preside through week….Upper level ridge is forecasted to push off to the Southeast of the FA this weekend, this will allow for a weak system to move into the FA for this weekend….Will have a slight chance of showers for Sat night through Monday…. Still may pull this out of the FA,unless we can get better moisture flow back into the area. With the dry conditions forecasted fire danger will be on the increase….Winds don’t appear to be a problem, which will be a good thing….

***YOUR SHORT/MIDDLE TERM FORECAST***

TODAY and TONIGHT.... Sunny highs 70 to 75,Clear tonight with lows 40 to 45.

TUESDAY and TUESDAY NIGHT..... Sunny highs 70 to 75. Lows 45 to 50 under clear skies.

WEDNESDAY and WEDNESDAY NIGHT..... Sunny highs 70 to 75…. Lows 45 to 50 under clear skies.

THURSDAY and THURSDAY NIGHT.... Mostly sunny highs 70 to 75…Lows 50 to 55 with clear skies.

FRIDAY and FRIDAY NIGHT.... PC highs 70 to 75… Lows 53 to 58.

SATURDAY…. Mostly sunny, highs 70 to 75..

SATURDAY NIGHT… PC a slight chance of showers, lows 50 to 55.

SUNDAY and SUNDAY NIGHT..... PC with a slight chance of showers, highs 65 to 70…Lows 50 to 55.

MONDAY.... PC slight chance of showers, highs 65 to 70.

***LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION***

Once again not much to talk about here…. Once the weak system clears the area Monday, a large area of high pressure is forecasted to move back overhead setting the stages for another dry and mild period… There are singles in the long term models that a pattern chance is on its way for the end of this cycle. A strong cold front is forecasted to move into and through the area on the 16th/17th time frame.This is forecasted to draw colder air back into the FA… The 540 line sets up well to our West/Northwest so no snow is forecasted!!.

***YOUR LONG TERM FORECAST***

TUESDAY 11TH THROUGH SUNDAY THE 16TH …..Dry and mild highs will range from 65 to 75, with lows ranging from 45 to 60…..

MONDAY 17th … Chance of showers highs 50 to 55 lows 35 to 40.

TUESDAY 18th … Chance of showers highs 45 to 50 lows 35 to 40.

WEDNESDAY 19th... Chance of showers highs 45 to 40 lows 35 to 40.

Looking back at September

2011-10-01T21:52:00.001-05:00

Looking back at September… We had 4 thunderstorm days we had no severe thunderstorm days. No watches or warnings were issued for the month of September.

Days that had thunderstorms are as follows.

September 1st

September 2nd

September 3rd

September 21st

September was a rather wet month mainly the last 2 weeks as a cutoff upper level low kept moisture flowing into the area.

The morning hours of September 15th many areas saw the growing season come to an end. There was even a trace of snow throughout the Central and Northern areas….

September was slightly cooler than normal, again that was mainly do to the upper level cutoff low that kept clouds and showers going for about 2 weeks.

Looking back at last September 2010

Last year we had 5 thunderstorms days. 4 non severe thunderstorm days…1 severe thunderstorm day.

So we lost 1 thunderstorm day in September 2011.

Our winter forecast may be issued next week… Some may love it, well many will hate it!

Slighty past peak now.

2011-10-01T20:03:00.000-05:00

A lot of fall colors leaves did blow off the trees the other day....Still not bad though lots of color to be found...Get out and enjoy them as we are going slightly past peak now...

Today's pictures.

2011-09-28T17:32:00.000-05:00

Was so so day in the weather dept. No rain that was a good thing.

Lake Superior.

2011-09-25T12:01:00.000-05:00

Was a fun day yesterday...Headed North for the day....Fall colors were really great South of a HWY 2 line...Some colors along the shore of Lake Superior...Looks like another trip for next weekend is in store!...Here are some pictures...

More pictures will be added tonight.

Tonight's pictures

2011-09-23T21:45:00.000-05:00

Skies cleared off,was a great night for astro photography...Nice warm 43 degrees...

Some pictures

2011-09-23T20:38:00.000-05:00

Just a few pictures...

TEST MAP

2011-09-22T20:49:00.000-05:00

The map below is only a test map,it is not current or a forecast map!

A chilly morning across the FA.

2011-09-15T08:34:00.000-05:00

Some areas have seen the growing season come to an end early this morning…..Lows fell into the upper 20s to lower 30s across the FA, I’m sure some of the colder spots across the FA fell into the middle 20s…

It would be safe to say the growing season has ending for points North of HWY 48 Line… Growing season may have ended for Points South of HWY 48 to North of HWY 8 line…. South of HWY 8 a few areas the growing season may have ended, however most areas South of HWY 8 should be ok..
Here are some overnight lows….

Here at the office.... 28.3

Hayward…. 27

Rice Lake…. 32

Siren…. 28

New Richmond…. 32

Oseceola… 28

Eau Claire….29

Cumberland… 32

Ladysmith…. 33

Superior…. 27

Here are a few pictures from this morning’s frosty start.

The Forecast for Western & Northwestern WI...

2011-09-14T13:03:00.000-05:00

Main story over the next 24 hours will be the very cold temps…..The NWS has issued a freeze warning for most of my FA…Frost advisory has also been issued by the NWS for the follow Counties….Chippewa, Eau Claire, Pepin, and Rusk……This could be the end of the growing season for much of the FA, you may want to cover up any plants you may wish to save, better yet bring them indoors….

A slow warning trend will commence Starting Friday and hold through early next week…..

***CURRENT CONDITIONS***

At 1 PM…Here at the office skies are Partly cloudy winds are form the Northwest @ 8.3 MPH gusting to 18 MPH…Temp is 50..Across the area skies range from mostly sunny to partly cloudy…Temps range from the upper 40s to lower 50s… Winds Northwest from 8 to 12 MPH with gusts ranging from 17 to 21 MPH…

***SHORT TERM/MIDDLE TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION***

Secondary cold front that plowed through the FA is now cutting the Stat of MI in half and extends through IL, Northern part of MO…..A large 1034 MB high pressure is building into the FA from Canada…Winds today will still be rather gust as pressure gradient between the High off to our Northwest and a low pressure off to our Northeast still remain rather tight… The high pressure system is forecasted to move Southeast/east through today and should be centered over Western MN by 06z Thursday and slowly move across the FA….This will allow for winds to become calm under clear skies this is setting up the stages for great radiation cooling…Temps are forecasted to fall into the middle 20s to around 30 tonight/early tomorrow morning…Hard freeze is appearing likely across much of my FA….With the high pressure system remaining over the FA this will set the stages for a dry Thursday and Friday, along with the weekend…. Thursday night we should see another freeze…..By 12z Friday the large high pressure system should be centered over Western MI….We should start to see a return flow slowly working into the area, meaning a slow warming trend…..Sunday the FA still under control of the high pressure system….We find a weak 1012 low pressure/trough over SD with a warm front extended South of said system, a cold front is forecasted to be in far Northwest ND……This is forecasted to slide Southeast into the Eastern ND through central SD, meantime the weak area of low pressure slips Southeast into Southwestern IA…Was some questions to rather if we should add precip into the FA for Sunday…..For now will run with a dry forecast…. Will add slight chance of precip into the forecast from Sunday night as the cold front pushes through, though still not thrilled about doing this as it appears moisture will be null….Will run with a dry forecast from Monday through Tuesday as a high pressure system build into the FA….

***YOUR SHORT/MIDDLE TERM FORECAST***

REST OF TODAY…. PC highs 50 to 55, winds NW 10 to 20 MPH.

TONIGHT…. Clear cold lows 25 to 30, winds becoming clam. Hard freeze likely….

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT…. Sunny highs 50 to 55… Lows 25 to 30…Frost likely with another freeze.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY…. Dry highs 55 to 60 on Friday 60 to 65 Sat and Sun…. Lows 35 to 40 Friday night warming to 40 to 45 Saturday night.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Slight chance of showers, maybe a thunderstorm. Lows 45 to 50.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY…. Dry highs 65 to 70 lows 45 to 50.

Confidence Level..High on temps….Medium on precip.

***LONG TERM FORECAST DISUSSION WED 21ST THROUGH FRIDAY 30TH.

The only chance of rain if this whole forecast cycle come in for the 21, and that is meeker…. The rest of the cycle is forecasted to be dry….Overall temps should be close to normal with precip below normal…

Confidence levels in both temps and precip are very low….So low we won’t issue a forecast for this time frame…..

Northern Lights early morning 0f 09/10/2011

2011-09-10T11:46:00.000-05:00

After watching the show unfold in the afternoon yesterday I was wondering if it would rebuild for the night time...Sure enough it did... Was a great show even though the Moon was almost full...I really do think it help add to the pictures, even the fall colors were lit up in some of the pictures...Here are a few for now more later if time allows!!

click pictures to see a bigger size....

Areas of frost possible tonight

2011-09-05T08:38:00.000-05:00

Looks like tonight parts of the FA could see their first frost of this fall season.
The best areas to see frost will be North of a HWY 8 line through Barron, Polk, and Rusk Counties and points North of said Counties....The closer one is to Lake Superior the less likely for frost....Temps are forecasted to drop into the middle to upper 30s tonight.....
Last night was a cold night across the FA.Below are the reported lows.
Superior 39
Hayward 35
Siren 38
Rice Lake 43
Ladysmith 44
EAU 41
New Richmond 39
Ocseola 41.
Here at the office we came in with 38.

BIG NEWS

2011-09-04T21:08:00.000-05:00

First off I would like to take this time for all of our viewers across the USA; yes I said across the USA, I also want to thank each and everyone for the nice comments, after spending all day reading and answering over 1500 emails, there was more but I lost track after 1500 of them….

Well my decision stands on the fall color project….The project on the blog was laid to rest on September 3rd at 5:57 PM and its gone there is no coming back…However I did setup a special website for the fall color pictures and just about everyone who contacted us has the link, as we know there are many people who come to Northern WI to see the colors so it was decided we will run with a site with pictures only……The site will only be up for a short time as soon as we are past peak the site comes down.

There will no longer be fall color pictures on this blog…..

Big news some which has been going on for a few months already….

Other news we may start to forecast for the 5 state area along with the local forecast for Western/Northwestern WI…

The 5 state area will be for the following states WI, MN, IA, ND, and SD. Reason for this is there are many people who would like us to do a forecast for their state. We will also be doing forecasting for smaller areas and cities and we have been for some…See below…… We thank everyone for your request to have us do your forecasting….Our new saying will also be want the best forecast look no further, you found it….If you want a local forecast for your areas email us and we will email you a forecast, until we figure out how to get it all on the blog….

Areas/Cities we have people requesting our forecast as follows.

WI…

Madison, Green Bay, Park Falls, and Wausau.

MN….

Fergus Falls, Albert Lea, Rochester, Winona, and St. Paul.

ND….

Williston, and Valley City.

SD,

Rapid City.

IA….

Fort Dodge, De Moines, and Mason City…

So far these have been the requested cities… Thanks to viewers throughout the 5 state area….What many don’t know we have started to forecast for all the said Cities in WI and MN…This has been done through email once we get the areas figured out they will be on the blog then we will start forecasting for IA,SD and ND…. We have our webmaster working hard on this in fact he started today… So will any luck everyone will see a big blog change and your local forecasts

Last fall color update!!

2011-09-03T17:57:00.000-05:00

THis will be the last fall color update I do!!!!!!!...I thought it would have been fun to show pictures every week showing how the colors are coming along,however someone is taking the fun out of what I wanted to do...Telling me there is no fall color well pictures don't lie is all I can say...Sure the tress arent all changing yet but they are slowly changing there are not the deep green they were,some yellows and oranges...Anyway the heck with this project I'm sick of beating a dead horse all the time.... Here are some pictures tell me there is no color....

The rest of the lightning pictures

2011-09-03T16:14:00.000-05:00

Some try to be like me,Some try to copy me,some what to be like me, however they all fail..Why you ask? Easy I am the lightning whisperer...The one and only one!

Strong thunderstorms this morning

2011-09-03T08:21:00.000-05:00

Strong thunderstorms pounded parts of the FA this morning starting around 1:30 AM then another batch around 4:00 AM..... Here at the office we picked up 1.29" of rain.. Had like three small hails stones, there was a little more than that, however it didn't last no longer than a minute.Here are some lightning pictures I took throughout the early morning hours...Haven't been to sleep since Thursday night....More pictures will be added latter I need sleep,and I need it now.

Looking back at August.

2011-09-01T13:23:00.000-05:00

Looking back at August….August was a rather quite month..Temps did average out to be near normal though it was slighty below…. There was a total of 9 thunderstorm days and 1 severe thunderstorm day..We will break that down even more latter…. Looking at watches that were issued for the area…. Tornado watches = 0 Severe thunderstorm watches = 2.

There were 0 tornado warnings issued… There was 4 severe thunderstorm warnings issued.

Ok time to break the thunderstorm days down…

Days that had thunderstorms….

1, 2, 5, 13, 19, 20, 22, 26, 31….

Days that had severe thunderstorms

2nd

8 non severe thunderstorm days were recorded.

1 severe thunderstorm day was recorded.

9 total thunderstorm days were recorded…..

Two severe thunderstorm watches were issued, both for the 2nd… One was from 2:20 AM through 10:00 AM, the other one was for 5:20 AM to 1:00 PM once this one was issued the other watch became voided.

There was 4 severe thunderstorm warnings issued for the 2nd.

1. 4:30 AM to 5:30 AM

2. 5:25 AM to 6:30 AM

3. 9:10 AM to 10:15 AM

4. 9:37 AM to 11:15 AM

Let’s look at how the thunderstorm days stacked up to last year.

Last year we had 7 thunderstorm days for a total…. 3 were non severe while 4 were severe thunderstorm days.

So we did drop in the severe thunderstorm days compared to last year…We did go up on non severe thunderstorm days…

So all in all we are close to what we should be at……
***NOTICE***
THIS INFO IS FOR BARRON COUNTY...

Severe thunderstorm outlook

2011-09-01T12:04:00.000-05:00

Severe thunderstorms will be possible across the outlook area tonight may be a few showers and storms late this afternoon these storms are not forecasted to become severe...Tonight a cold front pushes into the outlook area showers and thunderstorms will fire along the frontal boundary and push East/Southeast... Main threat will be large hail and damaging winds... The tornado threat would be in the purple shaded area....If SFC base storms can fire....My Southern Counties should stay clear of severe thunderstorms,as the cap is forecasted to remain...Post frontal showers and storms will be possible in the Southern areas and points South...None of these are forecasted to be severe.

Dirk Miller is now The Lightning Whisperer

2011-09-01T01:02:00.000-05:00

You all have heard of The Dog Whisperer,Well now we have The Lightning Whisperer...That is right I am The Lightning Whisperer..Won't be long now and I will have my own TV show!!...Here is a picture a friend did for me....

The Forecast for Western & Northwestern WI.

2011-08-31T21:30:00.000-05:00

Forecast problems really none… Will be going into a drier weather pattern starting Sunday and last right through much of the long term forecast….

***CURRENT CONDITIONS***

At 9 PM…. Temps in the upper 60s to lower 70s…. Upper 50s around Lake Superior… Skies are cloudy dp temps in the middle 60s to lower 70s…. Fog is being reported in Superior… Wind are light from the E/SE… NE off the Lake in Superior.

***SHORT TERM & MIDDLE TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION***

Warm front has remained South of the FA, however low level moisture that has been over running the front has caused clouds to remain locked in over the FA today….Same is hold true for tonight….Warm front is found over the Twin Cities area and then ridding South along the MS river valley. We find a cold front reach South from Northern Canada into Eastern MT to a 998 MB low pressure system over Southeastern MT… Warm front is forecasted to lift Northwards however looks like it will be washing out….Meantime the low over SE MT is forecasted to move into Central ND… The cold front is forecasted to be from Central ND through Central SD down into the Northwestern part of NE by 12z…1020 MB high pressure will be found over far western NC this along with the low to our West will draw in warmer air and higher dewpoints into the FA… With all the media hype about 90s for tomorrow….1. winds will not be from the Southwest, where we would get the higher temps…. Also clouds if they don’t clear soon enough or hold all day like today, this will hold temps down…. I will not buy into 90s I will run with 80 to 85 temps in tomorrow’s forecast to allow for morning clouds…Cold front by 18z should be on Western MN’s door step, by late Thursday night early Friday 00z the cold front should be in Central MN then it is forecasted to clear my FA by 12z Friday….. Showers and thunderstorms will be likely Thursday night into early Friday morning… Some thunderstorms could become severe, with large hail and damaging winds being the main threat…This looks to take place in my Central and Northern areas…My Southern areas look to remain capped, however once the front pushes though those area can except post frontal showers with a clap of thunder or two.Saturday we see another system making a beeline towards the FA… Not to thrill on precip chances right now…. This system will however drag a strong cold front into and through the FA….In fact on Sunday it won’t feel like the last weekend of summer it will feel like Halloween with highs in the middle 50s to maybe 60….

There will be a slight chance at frost in our colder spots Sunday night…. Mainly Northern Barron, Polk, Rusk Counties and points North….The closer one gets to Lake Superior the less of a chance of frost….

This will also start a very long dry spell for the FA right though much of the longer term forecast….

*** YOUR SHORT & MIDDLE TERM FORECAST***

Rest of tonight… Cloudy some fog possible with drizzle lows 60 to 65 winds calm to light.

Thursday… Morning clouds than becoming PC highs 80 to 85 winds South/Southeast 10 to 20 MOH with gusts up to 30 MPH.

Thursday Night…. Showers and thunderstorms likely, some thunderstorms could become severe late, mainly over my Central and Northern areas…. Lows 65 to 70.

Friday… Morning showers than clearing, cooler highs 65 to 70. Lows 40 to 45.

Saturday… Slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm, highs 65 to 70. Lows 40 to 45.

Sunday... PC cooler highs 55 to 60.

Sunday Night... clear and cold lows 35 to 40, some frost possible see above dis.

Monday through Wednesday…. Dry highs 65 to 70 lows 40 to 45 Monday night than warming to 45 to 50…

***LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION***

Not much to talk about here as we will keep the dry spell from the middle term going right through the 15th…. Will be a slight chance of rain on the 16th….. Other than that look for temps to run from 70 to 75 for highs while lows start off in the 45 to 50 degree range than 50 to 55 degree range…..

***CONFINDENCE LEVEL****

High in the short term to middle term on temps and precip….

Low on temps in longer term as we might be to warm….

Mod on precip in the longer term…..