Forecast for Western/Northwestern WI

After our little brief warm up, people are now asking what happen to spring again....2013 has been a year without a spring....This weekend will feel more like a fall weekend than a spring weekend.... Normal highs...Today...66 Forecasted high of 60....-6 degree below normal....Saturday normal high is 66. Forecasted high of 48...-18 below normal...Sunday normal high is 66 forecasted high of 50...-16 below normal....Lows will be cold also...38 tonight 27 Saturday night 33 Sunday night......No spring in the Northwoods.....Monday still looks to be cold with below normal temps....Good news is there is another warm up on its way....More on that in a few......

***CURRENT CONDITIONS***

All stations reporting sunny skies, temps in the lower 50s....Winds from the North/Northeast from 5 to 6 MPH..EAU reporting wind gust up to 17 MPH....

Dewpoints across the area are in the lower to middle 20s.

***FORECAST DISCUSSION***

Look for late October/early November temps for this weekend.....For today High pressure North of Lake Superior will keep a dry cold flow over the area....This will keep skies sunny throughout the day.....Winds should begin to slacking off as we head through the afternoon....Meanwhile we will see a weak cold front move into the area later tonight, this will bring another reinforcing shot of cold air....Moisture is limited with this cold front, however we still be see a good chance of showers later tonight....Front sweeps through the area rather fast...So look for clearing skies to start your Saturday....Winds tomorrow will be brisk from the Northwest 10 to 20 MPH with gust up to 25 MPH...Saturday night the winds die off and under clear skies look out we could be looking a a hard freeze event, frost will be likely at the least......Sunday will shine with sunny skies, but temps will still be cold! Sunday night should see another round of frost...Monday we will see a warm front slowly starting to work its way towards the area......This should spark off some showers and thunderstorms.....Temps will still be running below normal.....Tuesday is going to be a pain in the butt with temps.....Warm front is forecasted to push into my Western areas....Now if this warm front clears the whole forecast area this would be easy...Some computer models not seeing eye to eye on far the front will make it on Tuesday....West of the warm front temps soar into the middle to upper 80s, while East of the front temps reach for the lower 80s....Warn front will have cleared the whole area Tuesday night, only to be followed by a cold front Tuesday night.....This will knock the temps back into the 70s for the rest of the week......Also there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms for the rest of the week....Severe thunderstorms seen unlikely at this time......

To sum it up....

This weekend will be cold, followed by a warm up, then followed by a slight cool down....Showers tonight....Then dry the rest of the weekend.....Then off and on chances of showers and thunderstorms......

Historic May major winter storm....

During the late evening hours of May 1st into the afternoon hours of May 2nd, a Historic major winter storm plowed through the area....

Rice Lake smashes an all time state record, it was the biggest snowfall in May ever on records per The Weather Channel along with other News Media....We picked up 17 inches of snow as of yesterday afternoon....We did add to that total some...But for this write we will run with 17 inches......Eau Claire also smashes a record for the top 5 snowiest May on their record books....

They picked up 8.7 inches of snow....This will rank as number one now....The last record was set back in May of 2001 where they picked up 3.3 inches of snow...Ok back to Rice Lake....

We had lots of tree damage throughout Rice Lake, with power lines being downed, This was also reported throughout Barron County, along with other parts of Western/Northwestern WI.Main tree damage was done to pine trees and older oaks and willows....If this would have been a regular spring, we would have been dealing with more tree damage do to the fact the trees would have had a good start on their leaves,which would have caught more snow.....Some trees/ large tree branches did fall on some cars causing damage to them, even some house damage was reported throughout the area....Lots of people were without power for sometime throughout Northwestern WI...Still some areas of this written still without power....

So what took place to give us this Historic snow storm....Well first off we had a cold front push through the area on Wednesday this brought down some colder temps..Then we had a slow moving upper level low pressure dive to the South, With a SFC low pressure also moving through...Both this features were able to tap into lots of moisture...The weather pattern is in a blocky pattern....There are like 5 or 6 different cut off lows....But this winter and spring we have seen this a lot.....The weather pattern really hasn't changed....Though it did for a few days when were able to get into the 70s, until this weather pattern breaks down look for colder temps and areas of rain and snow....Good news is next week looks better....Highs closer to 70.....Maybe then things will start to look up.....This major snow storm will be talked about for many years to come!!

Here are some pictures I took yesterday....The video link will be below the pictures....

Here is the link to the video I shot yesterday morning.....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PuvkfRf3rxI&list=UUBWwZo_RCDoIgDmRfacj7YQ&index=1

***MAJOR WINTER STORM***

 

A major winter storm is on track to slam the forecast area....A band of heavy snow will fall from Southwestern MN up through Northwestern WI...Meanwhile a band of freezing rain will fall from Southeastern MN into parts of Southwestern WI....Just expecting mainly all rain in Southern WI....Yesterday we were concerned about about how much warm air would be around before the CAA kicked in...That no longer looks to be a problem for much of the FA....Still my Southern areas will see more of a mixed of precip....We were also concerned about the drier air that is flowing into the FA....This won't be a factor anymore, but will help boost the snowfall rates as it won't be as strong, and the system will over come the drier air much faster...The somewhat drier air will enhance the lift....We should see another round of thunderstorms with heavy snow, or what we like to call thundersnow.....The only adjustments need to the forecast was to delay the start of the precip....Start it later tonight....The other adjustment that was needed was to take out the sleet wording in my Central and Northern areas....

This major winter storm will have major impacts on travel starting later tonight and lasting through tomorrow....Don't think blowing and drifting snow will be that much of a problem, as it looks like a heavy wet snow, however if we can keep some more drier air around and cool off the middle and lower levels of the atmosphere then we could see near whiteout conditions and blizzard conditions from blowing and drifting snow, along with the heavy snow that is falling.....The way everything is shaping up this looks to be the biggest winter storm that we have seen this winter 2012/2013....For storm totals see map below....

This could be a very dangerous storm....If you must travel from tonight and tomorrow, let someone know your planned route time of departure and estimated time of arrival..Carry a winter safety survival kit in your vehicle, if you become stuck remain with your vehicle and call for help...Best thing one can do is delay your travel plans...

So how much snow are we forecasting...Here is the map....

 

 

 

Forecast problems, there are many with this possible winter storm.....1 track of the low pressure....2. How much dry air will work in from the Northeast...3. Will this system draw up warmer air, or will the profiles cool off enough for more snow. 4. Will the forecasted severe thunderstorms rob a lot of moisture from flowing this far North.....Also this storm will come in waves if all plays out right.....So lets try to hash this out the best we can.....Notice this forecast is subject to change tonight or tomorrow morning....The forecast discussion will only talk about the short term...Not worried about the long term, as no big warm-ups are seeing.....

***CURRENT CONDITIONS***

Skies across the area are cloudy, winds are from the North/Northeast from 8 to 14 MPH with some gust up to 23 MPH.....Light rain is also falling across parts of the areas...Dewpoints range from the lower to middle 30s......

***FORECAST DISCUSSION (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

A late winter major/early spring winter storm is effecting a large part of the Country, from parts of the Northern Plains into the Southern Plains...This storms has it all, Severe thunderstorms to snow...Looking at the WV satellite loop we can clearly see the center of this storm in the four corners area..Another are of low pressure forming over KS, a little harder to see but it is there.....Looking at the NAM model it shows this area of 995 low pressure in the South Central part of NM... So that as the center of low a little too far South then what is seen on the WV imagery...NAM throws this area of low pressure into far Southern TX, but spins up another area of low pressure over KS then pushes that on into Northern MO, then pushes the low into the windy city, then into the Northern OH, Meanwhile a large 1034 MB high pressure system over Hudson Bay is trying to kick dry air South into the area....Time to see what GFS model shows us...GFS 12z run...The Analysis chart show the low right were it should be at...Also it shows a 1038 MB high pressure center over MT reaching up towards Hudson Bay...We do see this model also runs the low into Southern TX, and also form another one over KS GFS takes the KS low on the same track as the NAM model....Lets take a look at the ECMWF model.....Shows about the same as NAM/GFS....Only thing different is the track of the low.....The EC takes the low out of KS then moves it Northeast towards Southwestern WI, then into Northern part of MI....All model pointing at severe thunderstorms down South...Just how much will this effect our FA.....Could be a lot, if thunderstorms are ongoing this will allow for moisture flowing this far North to be less.....Not only that if we get more drier air flowing into our FA from the Northeast this will also play havoc on the precip amounts, as the moisture will go into saturation..The other problem will be, can the Colum cool fast enough for more snow, than a wintery mix...On top of that the storm track is not even close to be set in stone, as we have seen the past few days...One day its South the next run it North, the run after that is back South, now its back North.....So it is a very compacted forecast still.....

So far now the best way to run is to blend all the models and their members along with the ensemble members together to come up with this forecast.....

We will run with a track from SW KS into Northern IL then into Southern MI....We will bank on the drier air from the Northeast to become saturated with this first wave pushing into the area now, and keep the atmosphere saturated in between breaks of the precip....The hardest part now is to figure out how much moisture flowing Northwards will be robbed by the severe thunderstorms down South....For now with blending the models....we should have enough moisture making into the FA.....We should see enough cooling as profiles suggest to switch from a wintery mix on Wednesday to all snow by Wednesday night....If this indeed does happen we should see around 4 to 6 inches of snow throughout my Central and Northern areas, while 2 to 4 inches of snow in parts of my Southern areas, with lesser amounts in my far Southern areas....Now if we can get CAA sooner like on Wednesday morning, we could end up with more snow throughout my Central and Northern areas.....My far Southern areas will still see a wintery mix and they will remain close to rain/snow line....

Today.... Look for a few areas of rain, main areas will be in my Southern areas.Though we will still see rain in my Northern areas..Highs for today should be in the middle 30s with some upper 30s.

Tonight....Snow/sleet in my Central and Northern areas with rain mixing with some snow/sleet in my Southern areas, all rain in my far Southern areas.... Lows tonight upper 20s to lower to middle 30s Far Southern areas...

Tomorrow....Sleet/snow central/Northern areas....Rain in my Southern areas....Highs middle 30s to upper 30s lower 40s Southern areas....

Tomorrow Night.... Sleet/snow becoming all snow in my Central and Northern areas, snow could be heavy at times winter mix in my Southern areas, with all rain possibly mix with some sleet/snow in my far Southern areas...

Thursday....Snow snow could be heavy at times in my Central and Northern areas, maybe into my Northern Southern areas....Wintery mix in my far Southern areas....

Total snow amounts from the storm 4 to 6 inches Central/Northern areas....Could see some local 8 inches reports.....2 to 4 inches of snow in my Southern areas, with maybe 1 an inch or two in my far Southern areas.....

Notice short term forecasts will handle it from here on out, so any updated will be found there......

Really not much change is needed in the ongoing forecast below....Forecast concerns, Temps, and precipitation chances this weekend and type....Will try to hash this all out.....

 

***CURRENT CONDITIONS***

 

Temps have made a nice recovery...Temps now in the middle 30s across the FA with mostly sunny skies....Still a few high clouds around,but those will be thinning....Winds are light out of the Southeast...

 

***SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION***

 

Two concerns we have in the short term...1 how high to run with temps...2 precip and what types.

First out of the gates will be the temps.....High pressure system will slowly being pushing off to the East...Last night temps dropped like a rock to a low of 14....Northwest flow will slowly be giving way to a Southwesterly flow tomorrow....Three main players that will make temps a pain in the butt..1 The deep snow pack throughout the upper Midwest....Though a few pockets of snow free areas do reside over Southwestern MN....Then basically snow free in NE/KS....2....Cloud cover will also play havoc on the temps....3 Models not picking up on the snow pack, which is leading to higher temps forecasted by them......Clouds that we currently have should be thinning out today.....This will allow for temps to warm into the 40s today...However if clouds hang around longer than forecast look for temps upper 30s to lower 40s versus lower to middle 40s....So today temps are rather easy to forecast.....Tomorrow is another whole new book....

With some snow melt likely today, will there be enough to form fog tonight, if so how thick will it be....Profiles don't show fog formation, however again models have really no clue how deep the snow pack is....If tomorrow turns out to more sun than clouds temps will shoot towards normal or a few degrees warmer...ATTM I refuse to forecast temps in the lower 50s....For all the said reasons above...Either way tomorrow will be warmer than Saturday...Friday night the shortwave will begin to effect the FA...Moisture will flow into the area, this lead to an increasing chances of freezing rain this should last through the early morning hours on Saturday before the all rain is forecast.....Temps on Saturday will for sure be held down to the lower 40s with clouds and rain around, right now profile reading do show all rain on Saturday..Could be a few thunderstorms working their way into the area during the afternoon and evening hours.....Saturday night we will see the rain mix and change over to all snow as a cold front blasts through the area...Best moisture and forcing is off to the East....Still may be able to get a fast 1/2 to an 1 of snow...Winds will be on the increase like wise...10 to 20 MPH...Sunday will be cold with highs falling through the day as they head for a low in the teens once again, and winds 10 to 20 MPH with gust reaching up towards 30 MPH....Monday still could see a a few light snow showers around.....Monday night lows fall back into the teens after only reaching upper 20s to lower 30s for highs....Temps slow to warm to the lower 40s by Wednesday....

To sum it up...Short warm up, followed by more winter feeling airmas.....No spring big long lasting warm ups through this time frame.....

 

***LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION APRIL 4TH THROUGH APRIL 14th***

 

Next chance of snow looks to come in around the 4th this looks to be a light event...April 5th/6th we see a stronger system pushing into the area...This could end up being an all rain event for the FA...We will have systems lineup one right after another through Tuesday the 9th could see more rain than snow, however we will have to watch to see how the profiles really setup and where they setup along with the track of each system...If they move more South we could be dealing will rain/snow events...The 10th looks really interesting....A system move into Southeastern WI, this will drag down more cold air....This will chance the rain over to snow in the early morning hours....Next chance of snow comes in about the 13th....Looks like more of a winter pattern setting up than spring.....Temps will avg slightly to way below normal through this time frame....

To sum this time frame up...

Colder than avg with above normal precip....More of a winter pattern than a spring pattern.....Winter 2012/2013 lives on....

If the CFS model is right we should start to see spring take over towards the latter part on mid April through the end of the month.....

Forecast below this post stands as is...See no reason to change it....
No spring yet! Sure temps will warm but as you can see on the 6-10 day outlook and on the 8 to 14 day outlook we will remain below normal....I still think we will see at least 2 more snow events with > than 4 inches of snow...Putting my neck on the chopping block on this one, I still think we will see 4 more snow events with > than 1 inch of snow..So to recap, yes we will see wamrmer temps, yes we will see some melting....No the warmer temps won't last long, yes we will stay below normal for this time of year...Enjoy spring 2013! wait I'm mean the lasting winter of 2012/2013! Spring won't be here until late April or early May.....No wishcasting here! Just the hard cold facts....

Main story in the weather dept, this week is dry conditions and a slow warming trend.....Could see temps go slightly above normal by weeks end, however temps will avg below normal for this time of year....No big warm-ups as far as one can see.Thanks to the deep snow pack throughout much of the midwest and along with areas to our South/Southeast again...In fact could be dealing with a snow event come around the 3/4 of April....

***CURRENT CONDITIONS***

At 10 AM skies range from sunny to mostly cloudy...Temps range from to middle to upper 20s....Winds are out of the North from 6 to 10 MPH.....

***FORECAST DISCUSSION(THIS WHOLE WEEK)

The jetstream remains well to our South and West...Currently The jet is diving out of Canada into the Western parts of ND, and SD Down into Northern TX, then heads back to the Northeast through Northern GA into NC.This has kept us in a Northwesterly flow for sometime...This is forecasted to flatten out some tomorrow, but will still be setup way to our South....Looking at the Satellite imagery we see clouds moving from the East/Northeast towards the West/Southwest, as the weather pattern remains in its blocky state of mind....Drier air as worked into our FA so do think the clouds will thin as the day goes along, Still should be enough clouds(partly cloudy) around to keep temps held down in the lower 30s for today...Low level moisture will aid in more clouds for tonight...Temps tonight should fall into the teens.....Tomorrow under more sun filled skies temps will warm a degree or two...Will fall back into the teens tomorrow night...Story here is we warm a degree or two each passing day this week in highs and lows...By Saturday we should hit the upper 30s to near 40, which is still well below normal by 7 degrees...Same hold true for Sunday...This March will go down as colder than normal and wetter than normal for the area....Looking for temps in the 50s one will have to head way into IA!

To sum this week up up.....Dry conditions with a very slow warming trend into the upcoming weekend.

Confidence level is high.

***FORECAST DISCUSSION(APRIL 1ST THROUGH APRIL 10TH)

Looks like April will keep seeing below normal temps through this time frame, with another shot at rain mixing and changing over to all snow on the 3/4th...Low pressure is forecasted to move Northeast from Central KS into Southeastern IA then into Southeastern WI...This low should draw up enough warm air to produce showers and maybe a thunderstorm or two to start with, cold air get sucked into this system rather fast...This will lead to rain mixing with and changing over to all snow for the area....After this system passes through look for drier conditions, before our next system moves into the area for the 9th/10th. Should see a rain/snow mix with this system...

Confidence level is mod to high.

***LOOKING INTO ALL OF APRIL***

This will be the month of transition....We should see temps running below normal right through the middle part of the month....Then a ray of hope....Temps looks to warm to above normal...Does appear to look like the real spring will begin to take over....However with that said this is so far out there in time, anything can happen....

Confidence level this far out is very low.