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Tuesday, May 31, 2011
Sunday, May 29, 2011
May 28th/29th Northern light show
For those who missed last night's Northern Lights show,don't worry I got you covered since it is my job...Last night the skies did clear off I was setup by 10:15ish PM and played the waiting game,however it wasnt to long and the Northern Lights showed up and danced across the sky!...I was fighting dew throughout much of the night thanks to the rain earlier in the day...Freaking got humid and no wind...I would say this was the first time I had so much of a dew problem....I called it a night about 2:30ish AM...Here are some pictures....
Friday, May 27, 2011
May 22nd severe weather summary
Severe weather pounded parts of our FA on Sunday May 22nd…Many hail reports will only list 1” or > since that is the severe weather threshold…6 tornadoes have been confirmed be the NWS offices of Chanhassen and Duluth.
First off lets list the hail damage…
Once again we are only going to list > one inch or greater…There were 9 hail reports …Notice times are not in order…This info comes from the LSR from both Chanhassen and Duluth NWS.
1. 4NW of Elmwood in Pierce Cnty@3:12 PM
2. 1.50” 3W of Elmwood in Pierce Cnty@3:14 PM
3. 1.75” Elmwood in Pierce CNTY@3:15 PM
4. 1.00” 2S of Chippewa Falls in Chippewa Cnty@4:07 PM
5. 1.00” 9S/SE of Loretta in Sawyer Cnty@2:25 PM
6. 1.25” 7S/SE of Loretta in Sawyer Cnty@2:25 PM
7. 1.00” 3N of Butternut in Ashland Cnty@3:04 PM
8. 1.00” 6S/W of Butternut in Ashland Cnty@3:23 PM
9. 1.50” 2S of Kennan in Price Cnty@5:33 PM
There was 12 thunderstorm wind damage reports. List is not in any order.
1. 13W of Phillips in Price Cnty@2:35 PM
2. 13W/NW of Phillips in Price Cnty@2:38 PM
3. 2NW of Park Falls in Price Cnty@3:04 PM
4. 2SE of Butternut in Ashland Cnty@3:15 PM
5. 10NE of Butternut in Ashland Cnty@3:57 PM
6. 2NW if Mikana in Barron Cnty@4:00 PM
7. 2N of Mercer in Iron Cnty@
8. Counderay in Sawyer Cnty@4:27 PM
9. 8E of Phillips in Price Cnty@6:13 PM
10. 1NE of Phillips in Price Cnty@6:13 PM
11. Loretta in Sawyer Cnty@5:18 PM
12. 2NE of Stone Lake in Sawyer Cnty@4:27 PM
There was 6 confirmed tornadoes to effect the FA.
1. 2NW of Mikana in Barron Cnty rated low end EF1. time of tornado @4:00 PM
2. 12SW of Park Fall in Price Cnty rated low end EF1 time of tornado @ 2:33 PM
3. 4.5 W of Prentice in Price Cnty rated EF0. time of tornado @ 5:39 PM
4. 4N/NW of prentice in Price Cnty rated EF0 time of tornado @5:52 PM
5. 6.5 E/SE of Phillips in Price Cnty rated EF0 time of tornado @6:01 PM
6. 17 NE of Phillips in Price Cnty rated EF0 @ time of tornado 6:26 PM
Once again all the above info comes from the LSRs from both Chanhassen and Duluth NWS…All info is preliminary.
For the pictures of the storm that produced the tornado see below….Now on to some damage pictures.
The images below are from the base reflectivity as the storms moved through Barron County.
Images below are the storm relative volocity scans as the storms plowed through Barron County.
Many tress were also downed in the city of Rice Lake it's self...The image below is from the NWS showing the start and end track of the tornado.
The day started off with thunderstorms during the early morning hours,then there was a break in the action...Sun was able to peak out for a time,which was enough to get some SFC heating going..With the very cold air aloft did take much to fire up storms...Also had a warm front through the area and a SFC low pressure system over in Central MN which also worked East...This pushed a cold front into the area causing lift to keep the updrafts alive...Wind shear was off the charts around 30 KTS plus.These storms also produced flooding rains throughout much of Barron County and points towards the North/Northeast.
Click on pictures to see a bigger size....
First off lets list the hail damage…
Once again we are only going to list > one inch or greater…There were 9 hail reports …Notice times are not in order…This info comes from the LSR from both Chanhassen and Duluth NWS.
1. 4NW of Elmwood in Pierce Cnty@3:12 PM
2. 1.50” 3W of Elmwood in Pierce Cnty@3:14 PM
3. 1.75” Elmwood in Pierce CNTY@3:15 PM
4. 1.00” 2S of Chippewa Falls in Chippewa Cnty@4:07 PM
5. 1.00” 9S/SE of Loretta in Sawyer Cnty@2:25 PM
6. 1.25” 7S/SE of Loretta in Sawyer Cnty@2:25 PM
7. 1.00” 3N of Butternut in Ashland Cnty@3:04 PM
8. 1.00” 6S/W of Butternut in Ashland Cnty@3:23 PM
9. 1.50” 2S of Kennan in Price Cnty@5:33 PM
There was 12 thunderstorm wind damage reports. List is not in any order.
1. 13W of Phillips in Price Cnty@2:35 PM
2. 13W/NW of Phillips in Price Cnty@2:38 PM
3. 2NW of Park Falls in Price Cnty@3:04 PM
4. 2SE of Butternut in Ashland Cnty@3:15 PM
5. 10NE of Butternut in Ashland Cnty@3:57 PM
6. 2NW if Mikana in Barron Cnty@4:00 PM
7. 2N of Mercer in Iron Cnty@
8. Counderay in Sawyer Cnty@4:27 PM
9. 8E of Phillips in Price Cnty@6:13 PM
10. 1NE of Phillips in Price Cnty@6:13 PM
11. Loretta in Sawyer Cnty@5:18 PM
12. 2NE of Stone Lake in Sawyer Cnty@4:27 PM
There was 6 confirmed tornadoes to effect the FA.
1. 2NW of Mikana in Barron Cnty rated low end EF1. time of tornado @4:00 PM
2. 12SW of Park Fall in Price Cnty rated low end EF1 time of tornado @ 2:33 PM
3. 4.5 W of Prentice in Price Cnty rated EF0. time of tornado @ 5:39 PM
4. 4N/NW of prentice in Price Cnty rated EF0 time of tornado @5:52 PM
5. 6.5 E/SE of Phillips in Price Cnty rated EF0 time of tornado @6:01 PM
6. 17 NE of Phillips in Price Cnty rated EF0 @ time of tornado 6:26 PM
Once again all the above info comes from the LSRs from both Chanhassen and Duluth NWS…All info is preliminary.
For the pictures of the storm that produced the tornado see below….Now on to some damage pictures.
Thursday, May 26, 2011
Hard freeze and frost possible tonight.
Hard freeze is Possible for much of my far Central and Northern areas,while a hard frost is possible elsewheres...Patchy frost is possible in my Southern Counties....
Sunday, May 22, 2011
Storm chase pictures from today.
Severe thunderstorm outlook maps
Here is the severe weather threat areas..Our local area will depend on how much SFC heating can take place for a higher risk of severe thunderstorms..For now will run will a slight risk.... Main threat from thunderstorms would be hail and damaging winds.
Short term forecast.
Showers and thunderstorms have been forming over in Rusk County…Stronger thunderstorms have formed over Western Taylor and Eastern Taylor County…. Other showers are slowly forming in Northwestern Chippewa/Eastern Dunn Counties along with the Northern part of Dunn County….Other showers are found over Central ST. Croix County…Looks for showers and thunderstorms to become more widespread as we head through the early morning hrs… Some storms could produce some small hail and gusty winds…No severe weather is expected from this activity …..Highly unlikely but if severe thunderstorms were to form they would remain on the low severe weather thresholds..
The dry air that moved in late Saturday afternoon is now becoming saturated again..Winds have been out of the Northeast for much of the later afternoon and evening hrs of Saturday…Winds did switch back to the Southeast a couple hrs ago allowing moisture to return to the FA….
The dry air that moved in late Saturday afternoon is now becoming saturated again..Winds have been out of the Northeast for much of the later afternoon and evening hrs of Saturday…Winds did switch back to the Southeast a couple hrs ago allowing moisture to return to the FA….
The Weather Center's thunderstorm forecast for Sunday.
The map below is valid for Sunday.....Severe thunderstorms should remain well South of the FA,as we will be locked under clouds and showers and thunderstorms...Some breaks in the clouds will get enough SFC heating going for a few strong storms,however deep level mositure flowing into the area should be robbed from severe thunderstorms way to the South of the area...Storm chasers pick would be SE IA Western IA MO...Latest computer model runs target this area for severe storms hence our MOD. risk for those areas....Will not run with a severe risk excepet far Southern WI and there it doesn't look likely... For the local FA one or two strong storms could form,severe thunderstorms highly unlikely ATTM...If any severe thunderstorm do form they will on the lower severe weather threshold limit....Small hail and gust winds would be possible then....Will update if needed after the 06z runs come out.. 9 chances out 10 we won't...
Friday, May 20, 2011
The forecast for Western/Northwestern WI.
Forecast concerns….1. Wet pattern setting up for the weekend and lasting into the early part of the upcoming work week….2. Strong thunderstorms may be possible late Saturday and Sunday afternoon, however the severe weather threat parameters aren’t the best…So will not use severe wording…The stronger updrafts could produce some small hail and gusty winds, along with heavy rain in some spots.
3.Then a big pattern change to set in as Northwest flow once again sets up over the upper Midwest.
***CURRENT CONDITIONS***
At 7 AM skies range from Mostly sunny to Cloudy…Temps in the middle to upper 50s…Though cooler along the shores of Lake Superior with upper 40s.Winds from the East/Northeast light..Satellite is showing clouds over taken the FA..Radar is showing an areas of showers and thunderstorms over Southern/Central MN these storms are moving towards the North…Don’t think they will make it into the FA, however my far Western areas may be brushed by a passing shower/storm this morning…
***FORECAST DISCUSSION***
Short term looks to become wet, Will time the start of showers and thunderstorms later this evening…Dry air still holding strong over the FA, So will keep today dry, although there is a risk that some showers could move into the far Western parts of the FA later in the afternoon… Upper level low still holding on to the Easter CONUS, meanwhile High pressure system has moved in the OH/TN Valleys…This will allow for winds to switch to the Southeast which in return will allow for higher dewpoints to creep Northwards… However atmosphere is still rather dry throughout the FA it will take sometime for the atmosphere to become saturated ….Area of low pressure is forecasted to move from Western KS into Southern SD by late tonight/early Saturday morning. Then into ND by Saturday night/early Sunday morning.
Sunday late afternoon/early evening said low still spinning over ND…This will send a frontal boundary through the FA..The 996 MB low is then forecasted to move into far Northern WI/Southern UP of MI…Another stronger cold front will race South out of Canada and should be reaching my far Northern FA Sunday night Monday morning…Tuesday we find a cold 1020 MB high pressure system building in from Canada..This will allow for much colder conditions to return to the area through the rest of the middle term FA…Will also allow for drier conditions to build into the area starting Monday night and last through Thursday…As hinted to last night we have cut temps some of the short term and all of the middle term…
***SHORT TERM & MIDDLE TERM FORECAST***
TODAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 70 to 75. Winds becoming Southeast 10 to 15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Showers and thunderstorms becoming likely.. Lows 50 to 55. Winds Southeast 10 to 15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Showers and thunderstorms likely in the morning, then in later in the afternoon, otherwise cloudy. Highs 65 to 70. Winds Southeast 10 to 20 MPH with gust up to 25 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows 50 to 55. Wind 5 to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs 68 to 73. Lows 48 to 53.
MONDAY: A chance of showers. Highs 60 to 65.
MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy early then becoming clear. Lows 35 to 40.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny with highs 55 to 60.. Lows 35 to 40..
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy highs 60 to 65…
Note there may be a few nights/mornings we will have to watch for patchy frost.
***LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION MAY 28th THROUGH JUNE 5TH***
We start time frame on the cool side, However as we work through this cycle we do see temps warming backup a few days could be slightly above normal with a few day getting close to if not into the 80s.. This will be dependant on how fast we can lose the clouds during some of the day, nevertheless this will be a short lived warm up as temps will slowly fall back to below normal…Looking at the CPC 6 to 10 day outlook they are calling for temps to be well below normal…From May 25th through May 29th…. Looking at their 8 to 14 day outlook…Temps are forecasted to be slightly below normal…. So we blended the long range forecasting models and their forecast to reflect this… So over all temps will average out to below normal…. Does look like a another weather pattern through this time frame.
***LONG TERM FROECAST***
FRI MAY 27th: Dry highs 60 to 65. Lows 45 to 50.
SAT MAY 28th : Showers/storms. Highs 55 to 60. Lows 40 to 45.
SUN May 29TH : Morning showers. Highs 65 to 70. Lows 50 to 55.
MON MAY 30th : Dry. Highs 70 to 75. Lows 50 to 55.
TUE MAY 31st : Showers/storms. Highs 75 to 80. Lows 55 to 60.
WED JUNE 1st: Showers/storms. Highs 75 to 80. Lows 55 to 60.
THU JUNE 2nd: Showers/storms. Highs 70 to 75. Lows 50 to 55.
WED JUNE 3rd: Showers/storms. Highs 7- to 75. Lows 50 to 55.
THU JUNE 4th: Dry. Highs 65 to 70. Lows 45 to 50.
FRI JUNE 5th: Dry. Highs 60 to 65 . Lows 45 to 50.
***CLIMATE STATS FOR YESTERDAY***
The stats come from our office…
Yesterday the high was 71.7
Low was 49.3.
3.Then a big pattern change to set in as Northwest flow once again sets up over the upper Midwest.
***CURRENT CONDITIONS***
At 7 AM skies range from Mostly sunny to Cloudy…Temps in the middle to upper 50s…Though cooler along the shores of Lake Superior with upper 40s.Winds from the East/Northeast light..Satellite is showing clouds over taken the FA..Radar is showing an areas of showers and thunderstorms over Southern/Central MN these storms are moving towards the North…Don’t think they will make it into the FA, however my far Western areas may be brushed by a passing shower/storm this morning…
***FORECAST DISCUSSION***
Short term looks to become wet, Will time the start of showers and thunderstorms later this evening…Dry air still holding strong over the FA, So will keep today dry, although there is a risk that some showers could move into the far Western parts of the FA later in the afternoon… Upper level low still holding on to the Easter CONUS, meanwhile High pressure system has moved in the OH/TN Valleys…This will allow for winds to switch to the Southeast which in return will allow for higher dewpoints to creep Northwards… However atmosphere is still rather dry throughout the FA it will take sometime for the atmosphere to become saturated ….Area of low pressure is forecasted to move from Western KS into Southern SD by late tonight/early Saturday morning. Then into ND by Saturday night/early Sunday morning.
Sunday late afternoon/early evening said low still spinning over ND…This will send a frontal boundary through the FA..The 996 MB low is then forecasted to move into far Northern WI/Southern UP of MI…Another stronger cold front will race South out of Canada and should be reaching my far Northern FA Sunday night Monday morning…Tuesday we find a cold 1020 MB high pressure system building in from Canada..This will allow for much colder conditions to return to the area through the rest of the middle term FA…Will also allow for drier conditions to build into the area starting Monday night and last through Thursday…As hinted to last night we have cut temps some of the short term and all of the middle term…
***SHORT TERM & MIDDLE TERM FORECAST***
TODAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 70 to 75. Winds becoming Southeast 10 to 15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Showers and thunderstorms becoming likely.. Lows 50 to 55. Winds Southeast 10 to 15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Showers and thunderstorms likely in the morning, then in later in the afternoon, otherwise cloudy. Highs 65 to 70. Winds Southeast 10 to 20 MPH with gust up to 25 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows 50 to 55. Wind 5 to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs 68 to 73. Lows 48 to 53.
MONDAY: A chance of showers. Highs 60 to 65.
MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy early then becoming clear. Lows 35 to 40.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny with highs 55 to 60.. Lows 35 to 40..
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy highs 60 to 65…
Note there may be a few nights/mornings we will have to watch for patchy frost.
***LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION MAY 28th THROUGH JUNE 5TH***
We start time frame on the cool side, However as we work through this cycle we do see temps warming backup a few days could be slightly above normal with a few day getting close to if not into the 80s.. This will be dependant on how fast we can lose the clouds during some of the day, nevertheless this will be a short lived warm up as temps will slowly fall back to below normal…Looking at the CPC 6 to 10 day outlook they are calling for temps to be well below normal…From May 25th through May 29th…. Looking at their 8 to 14 day outlook…Temps are forecasted to be slightly below normal…. So we blended the long range forecasting models and their forecast to reflect this… So over all temps will average out to below normal…. Does look like a another weather pattern through this time frame.
***LONG TERM FROECAST***
FRI MAY 27th: Dry highs 60 to 65. Lows 45 to 50.
SAT MAY 28th : Showers/storms. Highs 55 to 60. Lows 40 to 45.
SUN May 29TH : Morning showers. Highs 65 to 70. Lows 50 to 55.
MON MAY 30th : Dry. Highs 70 to 75. Lows 50 to 55.
TUE MAY 31st : Showers/storms. Highs 75 to 80. Lows 55 to 60.
WED JUNE 1st: Showers/storms. Highs 75 to 80. Lows 55 to 60.
THU JUNE 2nd: Showers/storms. Highs 70 to 75. Lows 50 to 55.
WED JUNE 3rd: Showers/storms. Highs 7- to 75. Lows 50 to 55.
THU JUNE 4th: Dry. Highs 65 to 70. Lows 45 to 50.
FRI JUNE 5th: Dry. Highs 60 to 65 . Lows 45 to 50.
***CLIMATE STATS FOR YESTERDAY***
The stats come from our office…
Yesterday the high was 71.7
Low was 49.3.
Thursday, May 19, 2011
Update to forecast
Will be cutting temps down in tomorrow's forecast package as Northwest flow once again sets up over the area....This will allow for colder than normal temps for much of next week...Will also be cutting temps in the long range forecast to reflect below normal temps....So bottom line is enjoy the next few days big changes are one there way once again. Still could see some strong storms on Sunday afternoon...Will talk about all this in tomorrow's forecast....
Winter 2010/2011 review....
So how much snow fell this winter… This info below comes from The Weather Center…Some areas may have see less or more....
OCT:
Days we saw snowfalls>than ½”
We had an ½” of snow on the 27th
Total for the month = ½”
NOV:
Days we saw snowfalls > than ½”
13/14h ….6.50”
22nd …. 1.25”
23rd ….½”
30th …2.75”
Total for the month = 11.00”
DEC:
Days we saw snowfalls > than ½”
4th ….3.75”
9th…2.50”
11th….20.00”
21st….5.00”
24th….2.50”
Total for the month = 33.75”
JAN:
Days we had snowfalls > than ½”
1st….1/2”
5th….1.00”
11th…1.50”
13th…2.75”
14th….5.50”
24th…..2.00”
26th…3.00”
28th…3.00”
31st…3.25”
Total for the month = 22.50”
FEB:
Days we had snowfalls > than ½”
21st……12.50” , Which is the total for the month.
MAR:
Days we had snowfalls > than ½”
3rd…1/2”
7th….3.00”
23rd…10.50”
Total for the month = 14.00”
APR:
Days we had snowfalls >than ½”
1st…1/2”
19th….3.00”
20th….2.25”
27th….1.00”
28th…1/2”
Total for the month = 7.50”
MAY:
Though we didn’t have any snowfalls >than ½” still worth noted we had snow on the 1st and 2nd.
Total snowfall for the winter is @ 101.75 inches….This is the most I remember….. Also noted this past winter has been crazy… So areas got hit harder than others…. Even in a 5 mile radius the differences was remarkably big during most snow events….
Once again this info is from The Weather Center…..
OCT:
Days we saw snowfalls>than ½”
We had an ½” of snow on the 27th
Total for the month = ½”
NOV:
Days we saw snowfalls > than ½”
13/14h ….6.50”
22nd …. 1.25”
23rd ….½”
30th …2.75”
Total for the month = 11.00”
DEC:
Days we saw snowfalls > than ½”
4th ….3.75”
9th…2.50”
11th….20.00”
21st….5.00”
24th….2.50”
Total for the month = 33.75”
JAN:
Days we had snowfalls > than ½”
1st….1/2”
5th….1.00”
11th…1.50”
13th…2.75”
14th….5.50”
24th…..2.00”
26th…3.00”
28th…3.00”
31st…3.25”
Total for the month = 22.50”
FEB:
Days we had snowfalls > than ½”
21st……12.50” , Which is the total for the month.
MAR:
Days we had snowfalls > than ½”
3rd…1/2”
7th….3.00”
23rd…10.50”
Total for the month = 14.00”
APR:
Days we had snowfalls >than ½”
1st…1/2”
19th….3.00”
20th….2.25”
27th….1.00”
28th…1/2”
Total for the month = 7.50”
MAY:
Though we didn’t have any snowfalls >than ½” still worth noted we had snow on the 1st and 2nd.
Total snowfall for the winter is @ 101.75 inches….This is the most I remember….. Also noted this past winter has been crazy… So areas got hit harder than others…. Even in a 5 mile radius the differences was remarkably big during most snow events….
Once again this info is from The Weather Center…..
Wednesday, May 18, 2011
The forecast for Western/Northwestern WI.
Forecast problems…None for today or tomorrow..Still will keep forecast dry for tomorrow….More active weather pattern sets in starting Friday and last right through much of the middle term and long term forecast cycle…
As you can see from our forecast below we didn’t really change our thinking on much… Temps will still average out slightly below normal for this whole time frame... Still will feel nice though…..
***CURRENT CONDITIONS***
At 9 AM all stations are reporting partly cloudy to sunny skies… Big range of temps…Cold middle 40s along the shores of Lake Superior to the middle to upper 50s elsewhere’s… Winds range from calm to 7 MPH out of the Northeast….Here at the office @ 9:30 AM…Temps 60.9. Humidity is at 41%. Winds Northeast @ 5.5 MPH.. Dewpoint @ 35.7.
***FORECAST DISCUSSION**
FA still locked under a ridge of high pressure….Low pressure systems to our East and to our West…Blocking pattern does show signs of breaking down… In fact tomorrow we will see some clouds move in from the East as a low pressure system moves just about due North out of IN/OH into MI…Moisture is scant over the area so will keep forecast dry….. Our sights then turn to the a complex systems out to the West/Southwest CONUS… This system slowly begins to pull moisture back into the area on Friday..Nam has dewpoints closing in on the lower to middle 50s. GFS on the over hand has dewpoints closer to 60.. Instabilities look rather low for Friday… So still not 100 % on the wagon for thunderstorm possibilities as of right now…. So will not add thunderstorm wording for Friday/Friday night time frame…May even have to pull shower wording for Friday….Will keep thunderstorm wording out of the forecast through much of Saturday, However would not be shocked to see one or two storms fire up in the late afternoon as instabilities start to increase..Saturday night thunderstorms will become more likely..ATTM the storms do not look to be severe….. Sunday we will have to watch…. If the complex of storms and clouds can clear off soon enough… We may be dealing with a few strong storms….May see one or two reach the low severe weather thresholds…To early to tell this early in the game.. Have ran with a chance of showers and storms for Monday then just showers for Tuesday…Temps will be closer to normal for this time of year..Some days may be slightly above normal…Still the average through this time frame will end up slightly below normal….
*** SHORT/MIDDLE TERM FORECAST***
TODAY/TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Highs 65 to 70. Lows 43 to 50. Winds East/Northeast 5 to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Highs 65 to 70. Lows 45 to 50. Winds East 5 to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT: A chance of showers. Highs 67 to 74. Lows 50 to 55.East Southeast winds 5 to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT: showers and possible thunderstorm during the day, Saturday night showers and thunderstorms. Highs 65 to 70. Lows 55 to 60.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT: showers and thunderstorm partly cloudy. Highs 70 to 75. Lows 55 to 60.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: A chance of showers and storms. Highs 60 to 70. Lows 45 to 55.
***LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION WEDNESDAY THE 25TH THROUGH FRIDAY JUNE 3RD***
This time frame looks to be active with off and on showers and storms…Really is hard to pinpoint the timing this far out in the game as models do disagree with timing and strength of each incoming systems…One thing models are in a good agreement on temps should remain slightly below normal…
Side note to all this is La Nina continues to weaken, however we will still have to deal with cooler than average temps through July….If La Nina keep weaken at its present stage we could need up with near normal temps for the second half of the summer…With a warmer than average fall….
***LONG TERM FORECAST***
Wed the 25th: I did warm temps on this day over computer model guidance’s… A chance of showers and storms…Highs 60 to 65.lows 40 to 45
THU the 26th: A chance of showers/thunderstorms. Highs 60 to 65. Lows 45 to 50.
FRI the 27th: A chance of showers. Highs 55 to 60. Lows 40 to 45.
SAT the 28th: A chance of showers. Highs 60 to 65. Lows 45 to 50.
SUN the 29th: A chance of showers. Highs 65 to 70. Lows 45 to 50.
MON the 30th: Dry. Highs 65 to 70. Lows 45 to 50.
TUE the 31st: Dry. Highs 60 to 65. Lows 45 to 50.
WED June 1st: A chance of showers/thunderstorms. Highs 65 to 70. Lows 45 to 50.
THU the 2nd: Dry. Highs 65 to 70. Lows 50 to 55.
WED the 3rd: A chance of showers/thunderstorms. Highs 68 to 74. Lows 50 to 55.
*** CLIMATE STATS FOR YEASTERDAY HERE AT THE WEATHER CENTER***
The high was 69.9 @ 3:08 PM the low was 39.7 @ 5:37 AM this morning.
Outdoor humidity
MIN was 26% @ 3:04 PM..Max was 47% @ 11:03 PM.
Maximum winds yesterday was from the Northesat @ 10.2 MPH
No rain….
As you can see from our forecast below we didn’t really change our thinking on much… Temps will still average out slightly below normal for this whole time frame... Still will feel nice though…..
***CURRENT CONDITIONS***
At 9 AM all stations are reporting partly cloudy to sunny skies… Big range of temps…Cold middle 40s along the shores of Lake Superior to the middle to upper 50s elsewhere’s… Winds range from calm to 7 MPH out of the Northeast….Here at the office @ 9:30 AM…Temps 60.9. Humidity is at 41%. Winds Northeast @ 5.5 MPH.. Dewpoint @ 35.7.
***FORECAST DISCUSSION**
FA still locked under a ridge of high pressure….Low pressure systems to our East and to our West…Blocking pattern does show signs of breaking down… In fact tomorrow we will see some clouds move in from the East as a low pressure system moves just about due North out of IN/OH into MI…Moisture is scant over the area so will keep forecast dry….. Our sights then turn to the a complex systems out to the West/Southwest CONUS… This system slowly begins to pull moisture back into the area on Friday..Nam has dewpoints closing in on the lower to middle 50s. GFS on the over hand has dewpoints closer to 60.. Instabilities look rather low for Friday… So still not 100 % on the wagon for thunderstorm possibilities as of right now…. So will not add thunderstorm wording for Friday/Friday night time frame…May even have to pull shower wording for Friday….Will keep thunderstorm wording out of the forecast through much of Saturday, However would not be shocked to see one or two storms fire up in the late afternoon as instabilities start to increase..Saturday night thunderstorms will become more likely..ATTM the storms do not look to be severe….. Sunday we will have to watch…. If the complex of storms and clouds can clear off soon enough… We may be dealing with a few strong storms….May see one or two reach the low severe weather thresholds…To early to tell this early in the game.. Have ran with a chance of showers and storms for Monday then just showers for Tuesday…Temps will be closer to normal for this time of year..Some days may be slightly above normal…Still the average through this time frame will end up slightly below normal….
*** SHORT/MIDDLE TERM FORECAST***
TODAY/TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Highs 65 to 70. Lows 43 to 50. Winds East/Northeast 5 to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Highs 65 to 70. Lows 45 to 50. Winds East 5 to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT: A chance of showers. Highs 67 to 74. Lows 50 to 55.East Southeast winds 5 to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT: showers and possible thunderstorm during the day, Saturday night showers and thunderstorms. Highs 65 to 70. Lows 55 to 60.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT: showers and thunderstorm partly cloudy. Highs 70 to 75. Lows 55 to 60.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: A chance of showers and storms. Highs 60 to 70. Lows 45 to 55.
***LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION WEDNESDAY THE 25TH THROUGH FRIDAY JUNE 3RD***
This time frame looks to be active with off and on showers and storms…Really is hard to pinpoint the timing this far out in the game as models do disagree with timing and strength of each incoming systems…One thing models are in a good agreement on temps should remain slightly below normal…
Side note to all this is La Nina continues to weaken, however we will still have to deal with cooler than average temps through July….If La Nina keep weaken at its present stage we could need up with near normal temps for the second half of the summer…With a warmer than average fall….
***LONG TERM FORECAST***
Wed the 25th: I did warm temps on this day over computer model guidance’s… A chance of showers and storms…Highs 60 to 65.lows 40 to 45
THU the 26th: A chance of showers/thunderstorms. Highs 60 to 65. Lows 45 to 50.
FRI the 27th: A chance of showers. Highs 55 to 60. Lows 40 to 45.
SAT the 28th: A chance of showers. Highs 60 to 65. Lows 45 to 50.
SUN the 29th: A chance of showers. Highs 65 to 70. Lows 45 to 50.
MON the 30th: Dry. Highs 65 to 70. Lows 45 to 50.
TUE the 31st: Dry. Highs 60 to 65. Lows 45 to 50.
WED June 1st: A chance of showers/thunderstorms. Highs 65 to 70. Lows 45 to 50.
THU the 2nd: Dry. Highs 65 to 70. Lows 50 to 55.
WED the 3rd: A chance of showers/thunderstorms. Highs 68 to 74. Lows 50 to 55.
*** CLIMATE STATS FOR YEASTERDAY HERE AT THE WEATHER CENTER***
The high was 69.9 @ 3:08 PM the low was 39.7 @ 5:37 AM this morning.
Outdoor humidity
MIN was 26% @ 3:04 PM..Max was 47% @ 11:03 PM.
Maximum winds yesterday was from the Northesat @ 10.2 MPH
No rain….
Saturday, May 14, 2011
FROST/FREEZE STATEMENT.
This special weather statement is for frost/freeze conditions excepted..
This special weather statement is valid for Sunday night/Monday morning/Monday night/Tuesday night.
Very cold air for this time of year is in place..Winds tonight should remain strong enough to keep mixing going on so frost should not be a problem…Tomorrow under clear skies temps warm only into the middle 50s sure a few 60s are possible…Tomorrow night winds will slack off under clear skies…This is setting the stage for a widespread frost and freeze for Sunday night into Monday morning…Temps in the forecast may ok almost for sure will have to be cut back to reflect upper 20s to lower 30s throughout much of the FA….See map below on our thinking to where frost is possible and a freeze is possible……We may also have to watch for the possibility of frost for Monday night and Tuesday Morning….
People with tender plants may want to bring them in both nights and or cover them up to protect them from the frost/freeze.
This special weather statement is valid for Sunday night/Monday morning/Monday night/Tuesday night.
Very cold air for this time of year is in place..Winds tonight should remain strong enough to keep mixing going on so frost should not be a problem…Tomorrow under clear skies temps warm only into the middle 50s sure a few 60s are possible…Tomorrow night winds will slack off under clear skies…This is setting the stage for a widespread frost and freeze for Sunday night into Monday morning…Temps in the forecast may ok almost for sure will have to be cut back to reflect upper 20s to lower 30s throughout much of the FA….See map below on our thinking to where frost is possible and a freeze is possible……We may also have to watch for the possibility of frost for Monday night and Tuesday Morning….
People with tender plants may want to bring them in both nights and or cover them up to protect them from the frost/freeze.
The forecast for Western/Northwestern WI.Updated@7:50 pm
Updated at 7:50 PM to cut back temps for Sunday night...
Not a lot to talk about in the short term forecast cycle… There are some concerns about a frost/hard frost even a freeze is possible for parts of the FA…..Dry conditions return after today with temps slowly climbing back to near normal by the middle to end of next week, however it will be cold along the shores of Lake Superior as winds remain out of the Northeast for much of the short and middle term forecast….Long term depending on what model you look at it could be wet or dry..Details on that later…
***CURRNENT CONDITIONS***
At 8AM on this cold Saturday morning…Temps range from only the lower 40s to middle 40s…Winds out of the North/Northeast from 6 to 14 MPH with gust up to 30 MPH up in Siren, Hayward… All stations are reporting cloudy skies.. EAU is also reporting light rain…Looking at the radar rain is moving into the area from the East… Should see more rain being reported in the next hr…So if it’s not raining at your place yet, give it time it shall be.
***FORECAST DISCUSSION***
Main concern will be the temps through Monday morning… Rain chances today should slowly end as we fly through this Saturday..Nevertheless it will be a blustery raw cold day in the FA.. Temps may not even hit 50 for most of us.. Winds will still remain rather strong today also… Good idea to have plan b ready to put in play…..This evening we will end the rain and should see skies become partly cloudy… Lows going to be tricky… If skies clear soon enough and if winds do become lighter than forecasted we could see some patchy frost….As of right not this does not look to be the case, however something everyone should watch for..Sunday night/Monday morning is what we will have to keep a close on eye as frost and a freeze is looking more likely now for the whole area.….We get a nice long break in the cloudy/rainy spell that we have been locked under for some time now…. Next work week is looking dry, however GFS model does try to bring some rain back into the area for Thursday and Friday…Right now confidence levels are low so will forecast dry for now…
***NOW YOUR FORECAST***
TODAY: cloudy blustery, raw, and cold with showers. Highs 46 to 51.Winds North/Northeast 10 to 20 MPH with gust up to 25 MPH.
TONIGHT: Showers ending than becoming partly cloudy winds North/Northeast 10 to 15 MPH. Lows 38 to 41
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Winds North/Northeast 10 to 15 MPH gusts up to 25 MPH… Highs 50 to 55.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear cold lows 27 to 32 frost/freeze likely...Winds becoming light.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT: Clear highs 58 to 62 lows 32 to 38 with frost in most areas.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: Dry temps ranging from 60 to 65 warming to around 70 by Friday… Lows starting in the upper 30s warming to 50 by Friday.
***LONG TERM FORECAST DICUSSION (SATURDAY MAY 21ST THROUGH MONDAY MAY 30TH )***
Differences are showing up in the long term forecasting models which makes the confidence level rather low..Depending on what model you look at it can be dry or it can be wet…Could be cooler or it could be warm….
GFS shows a 1000 MB low pressure system over Southwest MN on sat the 21st and keeps this area of low pressure around right through Thur… Meanwhile EC model has us dry with a ridge of high pressure just to our East/South East… Then if that wasn’t a kicker the differences keep going right through the end of the period timing issues for the next system to move into the area for Sat the 29th and Sunday the 30th ...
***LONG TERM FORECAST***
SATURDAY MAY 21ST : a chance of showers/storms highs 65-70 lows 50-55.
SUNDAY the 22nd: May see some showers and storms 68 to 73 lows 50 to 55
MONDAY the 23rd THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE 25TH : Off and on chances of showers/storms highs ranging from 65 to maybe as warm as 75. Lows 50 to 60.
THURSDAY THE 26th FRIDAY THE 27th: Will run with dry conditions highs 65 to 70 with lows 50 to 55.
SATURDAY THE 28th THROUGH MONDAY THE 30th: May see some off and on showers and storms highs start off warm 65 to 70 then drop to 55 to 60… Lows 55 to 60 then they drop to 45 to 50 by Tuesday morning….
June looks to be starting on the cold side which really is no surprise as we have been locked into this weather pattern for a very long time
Not a lot to talk about in the short term forecast cycle… There are some concerns about a frost/hard frost even a freeze is possible for parts of the FA…..Dry conditions return after today with temps slowly climbing back to near normal by the middle to end of next week, however it will be cold along the shores of Lake Superior as winds remain out of the Northeast for much of the short and middle term forecast….Long term depending on what model you look at it could be wet or dry..Details on that later…
***CURRNENT CONDITIONS***
At 8AM on this cold Saturday morning…Temps range from only the lower 40s to middle 40s…Winds out of the North/Northeast from 6 to 14 MPH with gust up to 30 MPH up in Siren, Hayward… All stations are reporting cloudy skies.. EAU is also reporting light rain…Looking at the radar rain is moving into the area from the East… Should see more rain being reported in the next hr…So if it’s not raining at your place yet, give it time it shall be.
***FORECAST DISCUSSION***
Main concern will be the temps through Monday morning… Rain chances today should slowly end as we fly through this Saturday..Nevertheless it will be a blustery raw cold day in the FA.. Temps may not even hit 50 for most of us.. Winds will still remain rather strong today also… Good idea to have plan b ready to put in play…..This evening we will end the rain and should see skies become partly cloudy… Lows going to be tricky… If skies clear soon enough and if winds do become lighter than forecasted we could see some patchy frost….As of right not this does not look to be the case, however something everyone should watch for..Sunday night/Monday morning is what we will have to keep a close on eye as frost and a freeze is looking more likely now for the whole area.….We get a nice long break in the cloudy/rainy spell that we have been locked under for some time now…. Next work week is looking dry, however GFS model does try to bring some rain back into the area for Thursday and Friday…Right now confidence levels are low so will forecast dry for now…
***NOW YOUR FORECAST***
TODAY: cloudy blustery, raw, and cold with showers. Highs 46 to 51.Winds North/Northeast 10 to 20 MPH with gust up to 25 MPH.
TONIGHT: Showers ending than becoming partly cloudy winds North/Northeast 10 to 15 MPH. Lows 38 to 41
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Winds North/Northeast 10 to 15 MPH gusts up to 25 MPH… Highs 50 to 55.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear cold lows 27 to 32 frost/freeze likely...Winds becoming light.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT: Clear highs 58 to 62 lows 32 to 38 with frost in most areas.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: Dry temps ranging from 60 to 65 warming to around 70 by Friday… Lows starting in the upper 30s warming to 50 by Friday.
***LONG TERM FORECAST DICUSSION (SATURDAY MAY 21ST THROUGH MONDAY MAY 30TH )***
Differences are showing up in the long term forecasting models which makes the confidence level rather low..Depending on what model you look at it can be dry or it can be wet…Could be cooler or it could be warm….
GFS shows a 1000 MB low pressure system over Southwest MN on sat the 21st and keeps this area of low pressure around right through Thur… Meanwhile EC model has us dry with a ridge of high pressure just to our East/South East… Then if that wasn’t a kicker the differences keep going right through the end of the period timing issues for the next system to move into the area for Sat the 29th and Sunday the 30th ...
***LONG TERM FORECAST***
SATURDAY MAY 21ST : a chance of showers/storms highs 65-70 lows 50-55.
SUNDAY the 22nd: May see some showers and storms 68 to 73 lows 50 to 55
MONDAY the 23rd THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE 25TH : Off and on chances of showers/storms highs ranging from 65 to maybe as warm as 75. Lows 50 to 60.
THURSDAY THE 26th FRIDAY THE 27th: Will run with dry conditions highs 65 to 70 with lows 50 to 55.
SATURDAY THE 28th THROUGH MONDAY THE 30th: May see some off and on showers and storms highs start off warm 65 to 70 then drop to 55 to 60… Lows 55 to 60 then they drop to 45 to 50 by Tuesday morning….
June looks to be starting on the cold side which really is no surprise as we have been locked into this weather pattern for a very long time
Friday, May 13, 2011
YEAR WITHOUT A SPRING
Everyone is calling this a year with a spring...Yes you are right see below for all the info!
Hope everyone was able to enjoy the warm weather we had…We started are string of below normal temps yesterday..This will hold right through Tuesday..We will slowly moderate back to near normal as we head through the upcoming work week…We will also keep off and on showers going right through Saturday evening….Then will shall enjoy a row of dry days…Frost will become a concern mainly for Sunday and Monday nights…If we clear out soon enough Saturday night we may see some frost also…So this discussion is short and sweet and to the point…Not much to talk about… The year without a spring won’t stop…Temps have been averaging some 15 to 20 degrees colder throughout the FA…Everyone is sick of it….
The 6 to 10 day outlook from the CPC from May 18th through May 22nd is calling for near normal temps for the FA while much of the COUNS sees temps below normal too much colder than normal…Close to home above normal temps will be found over Central MN back into Much of ND…. Precip is forecasted to run below normal through this time frame…
The 8 to 10 outlook is calling for temps to be near to slightly below normal with precip near to slightly above normal the first part of Summer still looks like we will have below temps( May, June, and July)
Before we go into details about this…Lets look at some frost data….
The chances of our last frost breaks down like this.
April 25th we have 10% chance of not seeing any more frost.
May 14th we have a 50% chance of not seeing any more frost.
June 2nd we have 90% chance of not seeing any more frost.
Here is an example On June 2nd there is a 90% chance that there will be no more frost…Or there is a 10% chance we could have another frost…Rather easy to understand right? We won’t talk about our chances of seeing our first frost, will save that for towards fall…
First to make long range forecast like we do at The Weather Center, one has to know what the average temps are for every giving month…This data comes from the CPC and it ranges from the time frame of 1971 through 2000 that is the base line for the average temps per month… One also has to understand if we are in a weak or strong El Nino or La Nina period, you also have to look at the anomalies and sea temps… Also teleconnections such as AO, NAO, PNA, AAO, along with the overall blocking pattern that may be in place.. If one doesn’t understand all of this it would be very hard to make a long range forecast…Ok we have already issued our summer forecast back on April 21st
Now let’s look at the average temps for each month…
Jan: H 19 L -1.2
Feb: H 26 L 5.9
Mar: H 37.5 L 19.8
Apr: H 53.9 L 33
May: H 67.2 L 45.3
Jun: H 76.1 L 54.1
Jul: H 80.1 L 58.8
Aug: H 77.9 L 56.4
Sep: H 68.1 L 47.1
Oct: H 56.3 L 36.2
Nov: H 37.7 L 22.6
Dec: H 23.2 L 6.6
This data is for Rice Lake only.. Nevertheless when we do a long term forecast we look at info from each County in the forecast area then we average that all out to come up with our forecast whether it’s our winter forecast or summer forecast… We will have the second part of the summer forecast issued in the middle part of June…. Now with that all said lets even break this down more..We will start with Jan 2011 and work right up to the present time.
Here is the departure from normal based on mean temps per month as of so far….
Jan: -3.3
Feb: - 1.1
Mar: - 3.7
Apr: -1.5
So far in May: -1.1
Now that is the mean temps with the highs and lows averaged out…. We could even break all this down day by day to show everyone how colder than normal the temps have been or how warm they have been, if we did that you would see the highs have been averaging out 10 to 20 degrees colder on some days with some days near normal and above normal, however overall it has been colder than normal….Either way no matter how you cut it, slice it, dice it…. 2011 has been below normal… This spring has been no exception has you can see…. So what everyone is calling the year without spring keeps on going, whether you want to believe it or not.. It’s all in black and white….
So the cold and snowier/wetter than normal winter has spilled over into the final month of meteorological spring which runs from March through May….
All this info can be found at various climate sites….
Looking at the current conditions as of noon today…We find temps in the upper 40s to lower 50s…..Yes it’s cold!
Looking at the forecasted temps through the weekend high temps in the lower 50s Sat upper 50s Sun…Lows in the 30s…. Looking at next week we start with temps in the lower 60s warming to around 65 on Tuesday. So we are still running below normal…. We warm up to normal by Thur with a forecasted high of 67….
Hope everyone was able to enjoy the warm weather we had…We started are string of below normal temps yesterday..This will hold right through Tuesday..We will slowly moderate back to near normal as we head through the upcoming work week…We will also keep off and on showers going right through Saturday evening….Then will shall enjoy a row of dry days…Frost will become a concern mainly for Sunday and Monday nights…If we clear out soon enough Saturday night we may see some frost also…So this discussion is short and sweet and to the point…Not much to talk about… The year without a spring won’t stop…Temps have been averaging some 15 to 20 degrees colder throughout the FA…Everyone is sick of it….
The 6 to 10 day outlook from the CPC from May 18th through May 22nd is calling for near normal temps for the FA while much of the COUNS sees temps below normal too much colder than normal…Close to home above normal temps will be found over Central MN back into Much of ND…. Precip is forecasted to run below normal through this time frame…
The 8 to 10 outlook is calling for temps to be near to slightly below normal with precip near to slightly above normal the first part of Summer still looks like we will have below temps( May, June, and July)
Before we go into details about this…Lets look at some frost data….
The chances of our last frost breaks down like this.
April 25th we have 10% chance of not seeing any more frost.
May 14th we have a 50% chance of not seeing any more frost.
June 2nd we have 90% chance of not seeing any more frost.
Here is an example On June 2nd there is a 90% chance that there will be no more frost…Or there is a 10% chance we could have another frost…Rather easy to understand right? We won’t talk about our chances of seeing our first frost, will save that for towards fall…
First to make long range forecast like we do at The Weather Center, one has to know what the average temps are for every giving month…This data comes from the CPC and it ranges from the time frame of 1971 through 2000 that is the base line for the average temps per month… One also has to understand if we are in a weak or strong El Nino or La Nina period, you also have to look at the anomalies and sea temps… Also teleconnections such as AO, NAO, PNA, AAO, along with the overall blocking pattern that may be in place.. If one doesn’t understand all of this it would be very hard to make a long range forecast…Ok we have already issued our summer forecast back on April 21st
Now let’s look at the average temps for each month…
Jan: H 19 L -1.2
Feb: H 26 L 5.9
Mar: H 37.5 L 19.8
Apr: H 53.9 L 33
May: H 67.2 L 45.3
Jun: H 76.1 L 54.1
Jul: H 80.1 L 58.8
Aug: H 77.9 L 56.4
Sep: H 68.1 L 47.1
Oct: H 56.3 L 36.2
Nov: H 37.7 L 22.6
Dec: H 23.2 L 6.6
This data is for Rice Lake only.. Nevertheless when we do a long term forecast we look at info from each County in the forecast area then we average that all out to come up with our forecast whether it’s our winter forecast or summer forecast… We will have the second part of the summer forecast issued in the middle part of June…. Now with that all said lets even break this down more..We will start with Jan 2011 and work right up to the present time.
Here is the departure from normal based on mean temps per month as of so far….
Jan: -3.3
Feb: - 1.1
Mar: - 3.7
Apr: -1.5
So far in May: -1.1
Now that is the mean temps with the highs and lows averaged out…. We could even break all this down day by day to show everyone how colder than normal the temps have been or how warm they have been, if we did that you would see the highs have been averaging out 10 to 20 degrees colder on some days with some days near normal and above normal, however overall it has been colder than normal….Either way no matter how you cut it, slice it, dice it…. 2011 has been below normal… This spring has been no exception has you can see…. So what everyone is calling the year without spring keeps on going, whether you want to believe it or not.. It’s all in black and white….
So the cold and snowier/wetter than normal winter has spilled over into the final month of meteorological spring which runs from March through May….
All this info can be found at various climate sites….
Looking at the current conditions as of noon today…We find temps in the upper 40s to lower 50s…..Yes it’s cold!
Looking at the forecasted temps through the weekend high temps in the lower 50s Sat upper 50s Sun…Lows in the 30s…. Looking at next week we start with temps in the lower 60s warming to around 65 on Tuesday. So we are still running below normal…. We warm up to normal by Thur with a forecasted high of 67….
Wednesday, May 11, 2011
Severe weather write up and pictures.
Looking at last evening…The Weather Center is happy with how the forecast and short term updates/short term forecasts have played out…The cap did break in MN just a tad earlier than forecasted…Which allowed for storms to become severe rather fast…Lots of large hail reports and at least one tornado report…. As the storms reached WI they did weaken some, however later in the evening more storms fired up in Chisago County MN, this did prompt a severe thunderstorm warning for Northern Polk County, Burnett County…As the storms moved East/Northeast other severe thunderstorms warnings were issued for Washburn and Sawyer Counties.. As of this written there was only two severe weather reports across the FA….Short term forecast handle that rather well… Here are the severe weather reports from the Duluth NWS….
2.75” hail reported by Spooner… 1.00” hail reported by Siren…. Non severe thunderstorm hail reports from across the area include Grantsburg 0.50”hail…Hayward 0.50” hail…..
Ok here are some lightning pictures taken last night….
2.75” hail reported by Spooner… 1.00” hail reported by Siren…. Non severe thunderstorm hail reports from across the area include Grantsburg 0.50”hail…Hayward 0.50” hail…..
Ok here are some lightning pictures taken last night….
Tuesday, May 10, 2011
Short term forecast number 2 and the last one.
As thunderstorms move into the FA and move East Northeast they should start to weaken as dewpoints have dropped off into the 50s…There is no SFC heating taking place…So the threat for severe storms has been reduced to near nothing….However there may be a one or two strong thunderstorms with some small hail….Don’t except anything severe in the FA….This will end the short term forecasting…. Live feeds are back…. With the data I have seen I see no reason to keep issuing short term forecast… Radar trends also showing storms for the most part weaken as then push more into my FA… We still can’t rule out one or two severe storms on the low level threshold severe limits in the very far Western Counties of the FA…. But storms are moving into more stable air….
Short term forecast number 1
Showers and thunderstorms have formed or have pushed into the my far Western FA Burnett, Polk, St.Croix, and Pierce…
The broken line of strong to severe thunderstorms remain over in Eastern MN…Seem as the storms move closer to WI they are slowly falling apart,still waiting for our live data feeds to kick back in to say whether the storms will remain severe or not… We still can’t get the info that is used for nowcasting..So as of now we are using radar only, however one needs to looks at near storm environment also,and we don’t have that info as of now our live feeds are down….
The broken line of strong to severe thunderstorms remain over in Eastern MN…Seem as the storms move closer to WI they are slowly falling apart,still waiting for our live data feeds to kick back in to say whether the storms will remain severe or not… We still can’t get the info that is used for nowcasting..So as of now we are using radar only, however one needs to looks at near storm environment also,and we don’t have that info as of now our live feeds are down….
Short term update number 3
Radar still showing a broken line of strong to severe thunderstorms…This line of storms is moving into Eastern MN..The storms have been moving Northeast at 20 to 25 MPH…..So far the main severe weather from these storms has been hail…
This broken line of storms should begin to consolidate into a solid line of strong to severe thunderstorms…Thunderstorms should reach my far Western Counties around 8:10 to 8:15 PM then spread Northeast throughout the rest on my central Counties between 8:30 and 9:00 PM…We will have to watch these storms to see if they will remain severe, as of now I don’t have a short term model update and some of our live data feeds aren’t working…Once we can get that info we will issue another update/short term forecast if needed by then….
This broken line of storms should begin to consolidate into a solid line of strong to severe thunderstorms…Thunderstorms should reach my far Western Counties around 8:10 to 8:15 PM then spread Northeast throughout the rest on my central Counties between 8:30 and 9:00 PM…We will have to watch these storms to see if they will remain severe, as of now I don’t have a short term model update and some of our live data feeds aren’t working…Once we can get that info we will issue another update/short term forecast if needed by then….
Short term update number 2
A broken line of strong to severe thunderstorms now extends from Todd County through Northeaster Stearns right through the Western Twin Cities metro area and then South to Freeborn County in Southern MN…
The thunderstorms in Northeastern Todd County has gone severe….Also the cell in Northeastern Stearns County has gone severe. I would think we will see more warning to South as them storms have been getting stronger…. Thunderstorms are moving Northeast… Should form into a solid line within the next hr or so…. Thunderstorms should start to effect my Western parts of the FA between 8:30 and 9 PM this evening….
Short term forecasts will start once the thunderstorms enter the FA, untill then will just issue short term updates....
The thunderstorms in Northeastern Todd County has gone severe….Also the cell in Northeastern Stearns County has gone severe. I would think we will see more warning to South as them storms have been getting stronger…. Thunderstorms are moving Northeast… Should form into a solid line within the next hr or so…. Thunderstorms should start to effect my Western parts of the FA between 8:30 and 9 PM this evening….
Short term forecasts will start once the thunderstorms enter the FA, untill then will just issue short term updates....
Short term update....
Thunderstorms over Central MN have been increasing is in coverage and intensity over the last hour…Radar showing storms are moving towards the Northeast…Looking at the vis satellite there is a line of CU that has formed this is where the storms are firing up….Storms have started to form over Southern MN now…If the cap keeps weaken I would suspect the storms would slowly start to form a line along the instability axis within the next hr or so….Once the storms form into a line they will begin to move on a more of a Easterly course..Once the MCS forms then the movement would be East Southeast…Though storms are forming they have been having a hard time holding their own….We shall see how this plays out…..
Short term forecast.
We here at The Weather Center are watching central MN for storm formation which has already started over in Otter Tail County down towards Stearns County… Looking at the latest short term models along with Duluth’s WRF model….shows shear at 23 to 35 KNTS DPNTS have really increased over the last few hrs through much of that areas along with the FA…Storms are forecasted to keep forming as the cap has began to weaken as forecasted…The deep Layer shear is sitting at around 60 KNTS and CAPE is around the 2500 to 3000 J/KG… Storms that are firing in MN will become supercells rather fast…
For the forecast area the storms over in MN shall form into an MCS and this complex of storms are forecasted to work East/Southeast…We may see a severe weather threat in the FA will damaging winds and hail being the main threat….Tornado threat is null in the FA…
Tomorrow’s severe weather threat is looking less likely as the overnight complex of storms may end up pushing the warm front more South…This still remains to be seeing…. However the dynamics aren’t in place on the latest runs…..
Stay tuned to more updates as they may be needed for tonight’s severe weather possibilities.
For the forecast area the storms over in MN shall form into an MCS and this complex of storms are forecasted to work East/Southeast…We may see a severe weather threat in the FA will damaging winds and hail being the main threat….Tornado threat is null in the FA…
Tomorrow’s severe weather threat is looking less likely as the overnight complex of storms may end up pushing the warm front more South…This still remains to be seeing…. However the dynamics aren’t in place on the latest runs…..
Stay tuned to more updates as they may be needed for tonight’s severe weather possibilities.
The froecast for Western/Northwestern WI./Severe weather threat(lack of)
Forecast concerns…. Severe thunderstorm threat right through Wednesday evening….Today there is a few things working against the chances of severe thunderstorms….Will hash that out in minute or two.
Temps are going to be a real pain in the short and middle term periods… Looks like we will drop to below normal once again by the upcoming weekend….
***CURRENT CONDITIONS***
At 8 AM most stations are reporting cloudy skies…Mostly sunny skies being reported at New Richmond and Oseola…Temps middle to upper 50s cold spot is Superior with 43….DPNTS middle to upper 40s…
Winds East 10 to 13 MPH…Higher up around Lake Superior….
***FORECAST DISCUSSION***
This discussion will mainly be focused on the severe weather threat or the lack of it…..
This morning we find a 992 MB low pressure system sitting over East central SD with a warm front now starting to enter Southwest MN, front reaches through Northwest IA down through Central IA…South of the warm front is where we find the real humid air Dpnts in the middle to upper 60s…..Warm front is forecasted to begin to lift Northwards as we head through the day..Cloud cover should give way to partly to mostly sunny skies… This were the problems start to show up….First off how high to go with temps….so of the computer model guidance’s show temps easy hitting 80 plus today… However I just can’t buy into that.. So will run with lower to middle 70s across much of the area, however I would not be shocked to see a few 80s in my far Southern Counties. Using the Duluth NWS WRF model it shows dpnts soaring into the 60s as we head through today this matches up rather well with the NAM model… Middle level jet is forecasted to increase to 55 to 70 KTS as it moves into the FA…This will aid in the devolvement of rather strong deep layer shear…Looks like some type of boundary is setting up over Central MN into IA…The way it appears right as of now looks to be an instability axis….MLCAPE on the NAM and others are showing 2000 to 4000 J/KG in Southern MN and Northern IA with 1500 to 2500 J/KG CAPE in the FA LI is forecasted to be around -2 to -6…Also with SFC heating forming this aid in thunderstorm formation… However we do have a very strong cap forecasted to crank up this afternoon. 700 MB temps are forecasted to soar into the 10c to 12c with convection temps 85 to 95 throughout the area….So these two things will limited the severe weather threat for today over the FA… As the cap weakens after 7 PM showers and thunderstorms should begin to form/push into the area from MN… Some of these storms may be strong to severe, however I still having a hard time buying into this as of now… We shall see though…..Tomorrow looking to be the warmest day of the week if we can break into some sunshine after last night’s convection…Temps should range from the middle to upper 70s….Showers and thunderstorms will still be in the forecast as the low pressure system is still hanging around could be another chance at severe thunderstorms tomorrow evening if the cap weakens….Thinking is once again this would be an overnight event…Thursday have kept temps in the lower to middle 70s to do all the clouds and showers and thunderstorms around….Friday even lowered temps more in the middle 60s….Cold front is forecasted to move through the area, so will keep showers and storms around…. Saturday looks to be a chilly day we may not even make it out of the 50s…With little warming for Sunday…..Temps still below normal for next Monday.
So to recap if severe thunderstorms do fire it will be during the late evening and overnight hrs of tonight and Wednesday morning, then once again Wednesday evening into early thu morning, However will leave the severe wording out for Wednesday night.
***YOUR FORCAST***
TODAY… Slowly becoming partly to mostly sunny, Highs 70 to 75..Winds South/Southeast 10 to 15 MPH.
TONIGHT… Mostly cloudy a chance of showers and thunderstorms, some storms could be strong to severe…Lows 55 to 60.
TOMORROW… Partly cloudy with a chance of morning showers/storms then a chance of showers and storms in the evening highs 73 to 78.
TOMORROW NIGHT… Cloudy showers and thunderstorms, lows upper 50s to lower 60s.
THRUSDAY… cloudy a chance of showers and thunderstorms highs middle 70s.
THURSDAY NIGHT… Cloudy showers lows in the 50 to 55.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT… showers highs 60 to 65. Lows around 50.
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT… a slight chance of showers highs 58 to 62 lows middle 40s…
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY…Dry highs 58 to 65, lows lower 40s.
***LONG TERM FORECAST TUESDAY MAY 17TH THROUGH THUR MAY 26TH.**
Temp should be near normal with precip below normal through this time frame….
No really big heat waves in the forecast… Could see 80s around the May 24th and the 25th time frame…
Also a side note the one picture of the dead tree was not called into the NWS...I had another tree that was very much alive that was also snapped offed,however the pictures did not turn out...Since is was in the little woods of mine.Will try to get a picture of that today...
Temps are going to be a real pain in the short and middle term periods… Looks like we will drop to below normal once again by the upcoming weekend….
***CURRENT CONDITIONS***
At 8 AM most stations are reporting cloudy skies…Mostly sunny skies being reported at New Richmond and Oseola…Temps middle to upper 50s cold spot is Superior with 43….DPNTS middle to upper 40s…
Winds East 10 to 13 MPH…Higher up around Lake Superior….
***FORECAST DISCUSSION***
This discussion will mainly be focused on the severe weather threat or the lack of it…..
This morning we find a 992 MB low pressure system sitting over East central SD with a warm front now starting to enter Southwest MN, front reaches through Northwest IA down through Central IA…South of the warm front is where we find the real humid air Dpnts in the middle to upper 60s…..Warm front is forecasted to begin to lift Northwards as we head through the day..Cloud cover should give way to partly to mostly sunny skies… This were the problems start to show up….First off how high to go with temps….so of the computer model guidance’s show temps easy hitting 80 plus today… However I just can’t buy into that.. So will run with lower to middle 70s across much of the area, however I would not be shocked to see a few 80s in my far Southern Counties. Using the Duluth NWS WRF model it shows dpnts soaring into the 60s as we head through today this matches up rather well with the NAM model… Middle level jet is forecasted to increase to 55 to 70 KTS as it moves into the FA…This will aid in the devolvement of rather strong deep layer shear…Looks like some type of boundary is setting up over Central MN into IA…The way it appears right as of now looks to be an instability axis….MLCAPE on the NAM and others are showing 2000 to 4000 J/KG in Southern MN and Northern IA with 1500 to 2500 J/KG CAPE in the FA LI is forecasted to be around -2 to -6…Also with SFC heating forming this aid in thunderstorm formation… However we do have a very strong cap forecasted to crank up this afternoon. 700 MB temps are forecasted to soar into the 10c to 12c with convection temps 85 to 95 throughout the area….So these two things will limited the severe weather threat for today over the FA… As the cap weakens after 7 PM showers and thunderstorms should begin to form/push into the area from MN… Some of these storms may be strong to severe, however I still having a hard time buying into this as of now… We shall see though…..Tomorrow looking to be the warmest day of the week if we can break into some sunshine after last night’s convection…Temps should range from the middle to upper 70s….Showers and thunderstorms will still be in the forecast as the low pressure system is still hanging around could be another chance at severe thunderstorms tomorrow evening if the cap weakens….Thinking is once again this would be an overnight event…Thursday have kept temps in the lower to middle 70s to do all the clouds and showers and thunderstorms around….Friday even lowered temps more in the middle 60s….Cold front is forecasted to move through the area, so will keep showers and storms around…. Saturday looks to be a chilly day we may not even make it out of the 50s…With little warming for Sunday…..Temps still below normal for next Monday.
So to recap if severe thunderstorms do fire it will be during the late evening and overnight hrs of tonight and Wednesday morning, then once again Wednesday evening into early thu morning, However will leave the severe wording out for Wednesday night.
***YOUR FORCAST***
TODAY… Slowly becoming partly to mostly sunny, Highs 70 to 75..Winds South/Southeast 10 to 15 MPH.
TONIGHT… Mostly cloudy a chance of showers and thunderstorms, some storms could be strong to severe…Lows 55 to 60.
TOMORROW… Partly cloudy with a chance of morning showers/storms then a chance of showers and storms in the evening highs 73 to 78.
TOMORROW NIGHT… Cloudy showers and thunderstorms, lows upper 50s to lower 60s.
THRUSDAY… cloudy a chance of showers and thunderstorms highs middle 70s.
THURSDAY NIGHT… Cloudy showers lows in the 50 to 55.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT… showers highs 60 to 65. Lows around 50.
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT… a slight chance of showers highs 58 to 62 lows middle 40s…
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY…Dry highs 58 to 65, lows lower 40s.
***LONG TERM FORECAST TUESDAY MAY 17TH THROUGH THUR MAY 26TH.**
Temp should be near normal with precip below normal through this time frame….
No really big heat waves in the forecast… Could see 80s around the May 24th and the 25th time frame…
Also a side note the one picture of the dead tree was not called into the NWS...I had another tree that was very much alive that was also snapped offed,however the pictures did not turn out...Since is was in the little woods of mine.Will try to get a picture of that today...
Monday, May 9, 2011
Lightning clip
Here is the lightning clip...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9uH-oEcAXKs&feature=mfu_in_order&list=UL
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9uH-oEcAXKs&feature=mfu_in_order&list=UL
NON THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE REPORT...
A line of strong thunderstorms moved through the area this morning…What was strange about this line of storms…The leading edge there was very little in the way of wind…Once the rain started it fell rather hard…I picked up .040”….Winds picked up after the line of thunderstorms moved through….The first and second pictures shows a uprooted pine tree in the City of Rice Lake…18 to 24 inches in diameter…At my home I had a have top of an 8 inch diameter tree snapped off…Though the tree is just about dead still took a good wind to snap it off as the strongest winds were from the East/Southeast so this tree is somewhat protected from the wind from that direction Peak wind gust was recorded @ 37.3 MPH…Time is estimated 10:20 AM – 10:30 AM…. The NWS is classifying the damage was non thunderstorm wind damage though it is related to the storms...I would have to agree with how there writing all the reports up in their LSR... as Non thunderstorm wind damage..There has been many other reports of trees downed through out the area.All the way from Superior/Ashland down into through EAU County and points South..Now the pictures.
Sunday, May 1, 2011
The cold forecast for Western/Northwestern WI
Hope everyone is enjoying this cold weather… it will be around for sometime….We will have a few warm days coming up later upcoming work week, however temps will average below normal for at least the next 2 weeks…More on that later…. This morning we did see snow that will keep going off and on right through Monday….Still some snow chances throughout the forecast cycle and even in the long term preiod.
***CURRENT CONDITIONS***
As of 1 PM all station are reporting cloudy skies.... Temps are in the middle 30s....Winds range from 14 to 22 MPH with gusts up to 30 MPH at some of the stations....
***FORECAST DISCUSSION***
Strong area of low pressure is forecasted to lift into Canada….Which is centered over far Northern MN as of this writing…Shows up rather well on the satellite imagery… CAA well under way… Winds will still be a problem today and into the early evening hrs…. Have really took a bite out of the temps for today will cut them into the upper 30s to lower 40s…. Will leave lows for tonight stand… Have cut highs on Monday also will run with lower to middle 40s,left low alone….Have cut highs on Tuesday to reflect lower to middle 50s ….Did change other thing around in the forecast also……
System still close to us on Monday to keep snow showers alive, could see some rain mixing in..Skies should become partly cloudy by time we head into the later afternoon/early evening….A break in the action for Tuesday…Wednesday things get tricky..Model disagreements showing up…. GFS has us somewhat warm with a chance of thunderstorms, meanwhile ECWMF keep us in the cooler with just rain for Wednesday night into Thursday …So will blend the two together..Will run with temps in the upper 50s for Wed and Thur with lows in the lower to middle 40s….System moves out of the area setting the stages for a rather nice Friday with temps in the lower to middle 60s….Upcoming weekend looks kind of interesting…Looks like we may be dealing with some severe thunderstorms?? It way too early to say this for sure, but the possibilities are there…..
So overall temps will slowly warm to the middle 60s by the end of the short/middle term forecast cycle, however will still average out below normal…
***LONG TERM FORECAST SUNDAY MAY 8TH THROUGH TUESDAY MAY 17TH ***
Looks like a wet and cold pattern still in place……..
Sun the 8th dry highs 55 to 60 lows lower to middle 40s….
Mon the 9th dry highs 50 to 55 lows lower 40s
Tues the 10th showers and thunderstorms possible highs 50 to 55 lows in the 40s
Wed the 11th showers cooler 45 to 50 lows in the 30s, some rain could mix with snow in the overnight hrs.
Thur the 12th rain/snow showers in the early morning hrs than dry highs 50 to 55 lows in the 40s.
Friday the 13th small chance of rain highs 55 to 60 lows in the 40s.
Sat the 14th… A chance of showers/maybe a thunderstorm…. Highs 55 to 60 lows in the 40s.
Sun the 15th should be dry…Highs 55 to 60 lows in the 40s.
Mon the 16th dry highs 55 to 60 lows in the 40s
Tue the the 17 chance of rain…Highs 50 to 55… Rain snow mixed Tue night with lows in the 30.
Disclaimer…
The long term forecast is out there in time..So things can change…..
***YOUR SHORT/MIDDLE TERM FORECAST****
REST OF TODAY….Cold with snow showers…Highs middle 30s to lower 40s… Winds West 15 to 20 MPH with gust up to 30 MPH.
TONIGHT…. Cloudy with snow showers… Lows in the 28 to 32 Winds 10 to 20 MPH with gust up to 25 MPH becoming lighter 5 to 10 MPH out of the Northwest.
MONDAY…. Slight chance of snow showers before noon… Highs 40 to 45…
MONDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy cold lows 25 to 30
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY….. Partly cloudy highs 50 to 55 then 55 to 60 on Wednesday lows in the upper 30s on Tuesday night.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT… Showers and thunderstorms lows in middle 40s.
THURSDAY… Showers and, a possible thunderstorms highs 55 to 60.
THURSDAY NIGHT… slight chance of showers….Slight chance of a few snow showers lows in the 30s…
FRIDAY.. Partly cloudy, warmer highs 60 to 65. Lows middle 40s
SATURDAY…. Showers and thunderstorms highs 60 to 65 lows in the middle 40s…
***CURRENT CONDITIONS***
As of 1 PM all station are reporting cloudy skies.... Temps are in the middle 30s....Winds range from 14 to 22 MPH with gusts up to 30 MPH at some of the stations....
***FORECAST DISCUSSION***
Strong area of low pressure is forecasted to lift into Canada….Which is centered over far Northern MN as of this writing…Shows up rather well on the satellite imagery… CAA well under way… Winds will still be a problem today and into the early evening hrs…. Have really took a bite out of the temps for today will cut them into the upper 30s to lower 40s…. Will leave lows for tonight stand… Have cut highs on Monday also will run with lower to middle 40s,left low alone….Have cut highs on Tuesday to reflect lower to middle 50s ….Did change other thing around in the forecast also……
System still close to us on Monday to keep snow showers alive, could see some rain mixing in..Skies should become partly cloudy by time we head into the later afternoon/early evening….A break in the action for Tuesday…Wednesday things get tricky..Model disagreements showing up…. GFS has us somewhat warm with a chance of thunderstorms, meanwhile ECWMF keep us in the cooler with just rain for Wednesday night into Thursday …So will blend the two together..Will run with temps in the upper 50s for Wed and Thur with lows in the lower to middle 40s….System moves out of the area setting the stages for a rather nice Friday with temps in the lower to middle 60s….Upcoming weekend looks kind of interesting…Looks like we may be dealing with some severe thunderstorms?? It way too early to say this for sure, but the possibilities are there…..
So overall temps will slowly warm to the middle 60s by the end of the short/middle term forecast cycle, however will still average out below normal…
***LONG TERM FORECAST SUNDAY MAY 8TH THROUGH TUESDAY MAY 17TH ***
Looks like a wet and cold pattern still in place……..
Sun the 8th dry highs 55 to 60 lows lower to middle 40s….
Mon the 9th dry highs 50 to 55 lows lower 40s
Tues the 10th showers and thunderstorms possible highs 50 to 55 lows in the 40s
Wed the 11th showers cooler 45 to 50 lows in the 30s, some rain could mix with snow in the overnight hrs.
Thur the 12th rain/snow showers in the early morning hrs than dry highs 50 to 55 lows in the 40s.
Friday the 13th small chance of rain highs 55 to 60 lows in the 40s.
Sat the 14th… A chance of showers/maybe a thunderstorm…. Highs 55 to 60 lows in the 40s.
Sun the 15th should be dry…Highs 55 to 60 lows in the 40s.
Mon the 16th dry highs 55 to 60 lows in the 40s
Tue the the 17 chance of rain…Highs 50 to 55… Rain snow mixed Tue night with lows in the 30.
Disclaimer…
The long term forecast is out there in time..So things can change…..
***YOUR SHORT/MIDDLE TERM FORECAST****
REST OF TODAY….Cold with snow showers…Highs middle 30s to lower 40s… Winds West 15 to 20 MPH with gust up to 30 MPH.
TONIGHT…. Cloudy with snow showers… Lows in the 28 to 32 Winds 10 to 20 MPH with gust up to 25 MPH becoming lighter 5 to 10 MPH out of the Northwest.
MONDAY…. Slight chance of snow showers before noon… Highs 40 to 45…
MONDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy cold lows 25 to 30
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY….. Partly cloudy highs 50 to 55 then 55 to 60 on Wednesday lows in the upper 30s on Tuesday night.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT… Showers and thunderstorms lows in middle 40s.
THURSDAY… Showers and, a possible thunderstorms highs 55 to 60.
THURSDAY NIGHT… slight chance of showers….Slight chance of a few snow showers lows in the 30s…
FRIDAY.. Partly cloudy, warmer highs 60 to 65. Lows middle 40s
SATURDAY…. Showers and thunderstorms highs 60 to 65 lows in the middle 40s…
The year without spring/snow video
The year without spring is what everyone is calling this... Well I now have to agree....Enjoy the cold as the temps will average much below normal for the next two weeks at least....Here is the snow video.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GbBJ3UWaAm8
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GbBJ3UWaAm8
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