Rainfall amount/Weekend forecast

Weather synopsis
First off the bat this early morning is..Rainfall amounts....Here in my rain gauge Yesterday morning I had .10 inches of rain...Over night We picked up another .044 inches of rain,that would bring the total up to .054 inches of much needed rain...Radar estimated totals shows this very well..First short wave moved through the area yesterday morning as forecasted..The line of showers and thunderstorms that were on the strong side in MN moved into Western/Northwestern WI as they did the storms did weaken some...Skies then became partly cloudy for the rest of day..The second shortwave moved through the area over night bringing more rainfall to the area,showers and thunderstorms rolled through the area much of the night..Nothing strong or severe just the garden type storms.....Though yesterday late afternoon and into the evening the treat of thunderstorms were over Southwestern into South Central MN...indeed there were warnings out for parts of those areas...
Forecast for today and the long weekend...
For today SFC boundary will keep pushing East/Northeast..This will take any showers and storms with it,as see on the radar this morning..With the front still being some what close to the area there will still be a chance at a few more showers and storms this morning...Showers and storms should end by afternoon...Computer models showing a high pressure building into the area later this afternoon and tonight...This ensure us of partly to mostly clear skies..This high will make camp over the area this long weekend....Some of the model guidance..Showing temps by Sunday and into Monday into the upper 80s to lower 90s for the area...Not sure if I buy into the upper 80s and lowers 90s...I can buy into the middle 80s without a problem...This weekend should be a dry one just like the last few...Temps will be warmer than last weekend so looks to be a great weekend for getting the docks and what nots out of the water..or just to be on or around the lakes.....Next chance of showers and thunderstorms come into play Monday night or Tuesday's time frame......More detailed forecast tomorrow morning..That is if I don't have to work overtime..
Side note for other rainfall amount from around the area see Derek's blog...As I will not be posting other amounts,due to the following reasons...1 I really don't have time to dig for all the info..2...I Specialize in forecasting not short term stuff..Unless I'm at home and severe weather is around...though 9 chances out of 10 I will be out chasing...

Severe weather chances for today are very low....Short wave now pushing through Central MN is kicking off a line of showers and thunderstorms..Some of these storms have been on the strong side...With some hail reports and some gusty winds...This activity should weaken some by time it reaches Western and Northwestern WI....Still some of the stronger thunderstorms may produce some hail and gusty winds this morning,along with areas picking up from 1/4 to around 3/4 inches of rain...Bad news is with rain falling that hard most of it will run off and won't do us to much good..Everyone won't see that kind of rainfall though....This morning's trough kicks out of the area...Another one right on it's heels for later today into tonight...Severe weather threat looks to remain well to the Southwest of the area into Southwestern MN..In Southwest MN good dynamics are in place for severe thunderstorms later this afternoon into this evening....Across Western WI and Northwestern WI...Dynamics won't be as strong...However might still see a strong storm or two rumble through the area...Some of the stronger storms will be capable of producing small hail and gusty winds,along with areas of brief heavy rain,again not all areas will be lucky enough to see the heavy rain...What we need is an all day and all night slow soaker...
Side note which I should have said earlier...The storms in MN as they push towards Western/Northwestern WI have been on the weaken trend over the last hour or so as they move into drier air..Thinking is this will be the trend through out the morning hours.

Coldest air thus far

At 4:33 AM this morning looking at the SFC OBS for Northern MN and Northern WI...I see temps in the middle 30s to lower 40s...I'm sure they will drop a few more degrees before sunrise...Here on my weather station I have a temp of 39.9 °..Thus making this the coldest air so far this later summer really early fall.....Looks like temps will rebound nice today right into the middle to upper 70s.....

No severe weather friday night

Ok many have asked me why severe thunderstorms didn't form on Friday late afternoon..Some say my forecast was a bust,However this is not true...We did get a line of showers and thunderstorms to form across the area, storms were to the North and South but still where in the forecasted area pf Western and Northwestern WI..So that part did work out,,However the severe thunderstorm part did bust for the most part....So why did it bust for the most part...There a few reasons to this....Here they are...The cap weaken to slow and way out ahead of the cold front.The cap didn't break like I thought it was going..This allowed for more low level clouds to form and allowed a very small line of showers and storms to form just ahead of cold front,plus the updrafts where not strong enough to punch through fast enough as the cap slowly started to weaken.Also the dynamics set up in Northern areas of MN and WI..The SPC did issue a severe thunderstorm watch for them areas.Now up north over Lake Superior there where severe thunderstorms..Not really 100% why that happen over the lake so I won't comment on that..Just one of those things that happened....This is what I saw as I sat here waiting for storms to fire up....Nevertheless the forecast was not a total bust...However does show everyone forecasting is not easy, as to many things can and do go wrong...If I was to repeat Friday would I have changed my forecast?...No I would have did it the same way as models did show a chance of severe thunderstorms..

First Frost is possible

First frost of the season is possible for tonight!
Current Conditions.
Most stations reporting temps in the lower to middle 40s .The cold spot this morning is up in International Falls with a temps of 37° Areas of fog also being reported this is also is being confirmed by the fog satellite imagery,other that clear skies are the rule....
Today..
1025 MB high pressure is forecasted to drift out of ND into Northwestern MN and into North central MN today..Winds will be lighter than yesterday...Temps will still remain rather cool for August's terms...We shouldn't be dealing with the CU today like we had yesterday so the sunshine will make it feel warmer than yesterday..Lower 70s seems to be the way to go for today...
Tonight.
High pressure strengthens to around 1020 MB tonight...The cold dome of high pressure will move right over the area ..With light to clam winds and clear skies this will allow radiation cooling to reach it's peak...All of this combined will allow for a chilly night....Temps should drop into the middle 30s across much of the area..Warmer near Lake Superior...Some of our cold spots could drop into the upper 20s to lower 30s by daybreak Monday Morning...This will allow for the possibility for areas of patchy frost tonight....I'm still on the edge of my seat on if this will be a widespread event...Could very well be...Then again may not be...More info on this later in the day after I see a few more computer runs and computer guidance..So far I'm liking the MAV over the other ones...So that is what I based my temps on

Severe thunderstorms possible later this afternoon

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible later this afternoon across the area...Most if not all dynamics are in place for a few severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail along with damaging winds...Large area of low level clouds are hanging tough this early morning...Clouds are forecasted to break up later this morning..If they do this will allow the atmosphere to become unstable later today...Warm air also at the 700 MB level will keep the cap rather strong through the 3 PM hour...Models suggest this will weaken/break around that time frame as a strong cold front/shortwave works into the area..Thunderstorms are forecasted to form and move into the area after 3 or 4 PM this afternoon...Some of these thunderstorms are forecasted to become severe,again large hail and damaging winds the main threat..What is interesting Models have PWS values around the 1.5 this would also lead to heave rainfall,however this system is booking at a rather fast speed so thinking right now is heavy rainfall won't be the main problem..Though some areas could pick up close to an inch of rain with the strongest thunderstorms....
For all you severe thunderstorm lovers...The limiting factor to severe storms would be as follows....Main one is if we can burn off these low level clouds that are currently over the area which I already see happening over Southwest MN this clearing line is moving Northeast as I type this...Number two is if the cap does indeed break.....I do believe this will happen.....Main time frame to see thunderstorms non severe and severe would be from the hours of 5 PM to 11 PM.....
I know I was only going to use this blog for forecasting severe weather events,however I will do this weekend also...
Saturday and Sunday looks to be sunny with strong high pressure decides to camp out over the area.. Temps should be in the middle to upper 70s for highs,with lows in the middle to upper 40s.

Low chance at severe thunderstorms Friday Afternoon/Friday night..

Warm temps to end the long work week along with increasing chances at showers and thunderstorms...
Windy conditions will engulf much of the area later Thursday afternoon and evening..High pressure off to the East of the area along with a forming low pressure out over the MT area will ensure the area with strong winds.Tomorrow winds should still not be bad...Thinking is Friday will be the day for stronger winds....Winds could gust up to around 28 maybe 30 MPH by Friday afternoon...The windy conditions will allow temps to zoom into the middle 80s..Would not be shocked to see a few 90° readings...Going back to Thursday for a bit...
Upper level low over Northeast TX is forecasted to push North Northeast tonight and into tomorrow..This might bring a small chance of showers and thunderstorms to the area in the afternoon.With clouds around like today temps should remain close to 80...79 to 83 seems to be the way to run....Now on to Friday..Beside the winds,and warmer temps there will be an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms a few may become strong to severe....Strong cold front is forecasted to push into WI Friday afternoon and move through the area Friday night....Dewpoints on some of the models showing middle to upper 60s possible...Cape values are forecasted to range from 1500 to 2500 J/KG...Lifted Indexes reach from -2 to -4...This does set the stage for thunderstorms some may become strong to severe later in the afternoon on Friday into Friday night...Right now I'm calling for a low chance at severe thunderstorms...Will have an update tomorrow around 6 pm or so..That is if an updated is needed...