My forecast for Ike short & long term

What a change hurricane Ike has made....This past week I just haven't had the time I wanted to..So I was unable to keep up with this or even my local weather....So time to dive head first into this forecast for Ike...Current SFC pressure OBS showing Ike to be around 953 MBS the Models have Ike around 960 MBS so all in all pretty close..As we get to around the Sat 000z models forecasting Ike to have a pressure around 967 MBS by time it he makes landfall the pressure should be around 964 MBS....So models really aren't forecasting much more strengthening of Ike... Ok lets try to pin down landfall....Thinking is Ike will make landfall in between these two points. Freeport up to Gilchrist TX...Ike should be a cat one hurricane as it makes landfall early Saturday morning.....So why such a big change from last weekend's forecast.....Well first off the bat....Models didn't pick up on some things as they have been and also being so far out in the period things do change and sometime fast like we have seen with Ike 2nd thing we to talk about is that mid to upper level ridge which built more to the East than I though it was going to also with a trough of low pressure moving in a little faster from the west..So combined them two this pushes Ike more towards the North than previous forecast had...One thing looks to a sure bet is that Central and Easter TX should see heavy rainfall from Ike along with parts of LA then up into OK and Western AR....Ike will ride Northeast along a cold front currently located from Southern WI down into the TX Panhandle...The cold front is forecasted to reach Southern MI down into Central OK and into the Northwest 1/3rd of TX by the early Sunday's time frame by 12z Sunday the front should have pushed into the OH /TN Valleys then reaching down into the Easter 1/3 of TX...The cold front will pick Ike up and move him into OK..Around 12z Monday Ike should be near Southern IN still moving Northeast long the frontal boundary towards the Northeastern States...12z Tuesday Ike will have should be centered just of the Coast of ME..We shall see if this all plays out...
Dirk S. Miller

Your local forecast

Forecast problems...There are a few of them...1...Thunderstorms this afternoon how strong will they be?...2....Will frost become a bigger problem than forecasted for Monday night?.....Last but surely not least....Will the temps warm up by weeks end?....
Current Conditions.
Temps this morning have a wide spread to them....Middle to upper 30s along the North shore into far Northeastern tip of MN....Middle 40s to lower 50s are found else whereas....Also some areas of fog in the SCF reports this morning....Radar is showing a line of showers maybe a thunderstorm or two from Lake County all the way down into Benton County MN the line becomes broken more as it reaches into Kandiyoki/Meeker Counties..The highest DBZ I found so far is around 40 45 at best..This where one may hear a clap of thunder or two...This cell was ready to move into Benton County...
Today and Tonight.
A cold front now starting to works it's way into the Western parts of our MN FA is forecasted to keep on the pace and should be into far Eastern MN and Far Western parts of WI FA by midday...Showers and thunderstorms have been firing along and just ahead of said front....Except this trend to be ongoing for most of the day...Some of the models are saying that some of these thunderstorms could become strong this afternoon...Though the boundary layer is some what on the dry side...How lapse rates are rather steep...Given the cold temps aloft and near the SFC..Any thunderstorms that may become strong could produce some hail along with gusty winds later today...I did not ad strong wording into the forecast as I feel this will not be a widespread event,scattered at best,if that...Tonight the front clears the FA however will keep a few showers alive as a weak shortwave moves through...
Monday and Monday night.
Shortwave still hangs around much of the day.So kept some showers in the forecast...That very well might have to be changed later today....System moves out of the FA Monday later afternoon this will set the stage for clearing skies, and light winds as a rather strong high pressure builds into the area..Radiational cooling will take hold Monday night this setup is some what like we saw back on August 25/26....However this setup we may have a few more clouds around to keep this from going into a widespread freeze event....Patchy frost does look like a good bet..I have added that into the forecast...We will have to watch this, as this could turn into more of widespread event if less clouds hang around....
Tuesday.
As of right now looks to be a dry day temps still on the cool side,however a little warmer...
Wednesday and Thursday..
Next system moves into the area during this time frame.It appears right now this system will have better moisture to work with and should bring the FA a good amount of much needed rain...We shall see....

Local forecast,fast update on Ike

I just used my AFD from the firm I forecast for...Fast updat on Ike..Looks like he is going to pass over Cuba and just South of FL...Shows you want happens when you rush a forecast...I should have an update out tonight on Ike which will not be rushed!
Local forecast for MN and Western/Northwestern WI...
Fall like weekend on tap for the Northwoods...Infact looks like much of the forecast period will feel like fall as high temps remain below norms..Low temps also below norms on nights we have clouds around otherwise lows will also be below norms...
Current Conditions.
Checking out this morning's SFC OBS we find temps in the lower to middle 50s most areas...Middle to upper 40s found over our Northwestern part of our MN FA along with far Northern MN....Dewpoints are running rather close to air temps so areas of fog also showing up in the OBS reports....Fog is also confirmed by GOES low cloud base product satellite....Radar is also showing some returns in the following areas of MN Southeastern Cass,Aitkin into pine Counties...Also a few returns showing up in Eastern St.Louise,Lake,and cook Counties....DBZ 15 to 35 at best with these light showers...
Today through Sunday night.
SFC analysis shows a 1012 MB low pressure over Northeastern MN/Western Lake Superior this morning...Also there is a 1017 MB high pressure over the Northern part of WY..Meanwhile we find another low pressure over the CO area this low is coming in at 1014 MBS....We find a cold front now coming into play across far Northwestern ND back into far Northern MT...This will be the feature of interest this weekend...Today will keep a shot at showers maybe a thunderstorm alive over most of the FA as the weak area of low over Northeastern MN slowly moves out of the area...Later today the said cold front is forecasted to move into ND around the 18z time frame..By 00z Sunday cold front should be into our Northwestern FA of MN,,Models have a 1014 MB low pressure forming along the frontal boundary in Northwestern MN by 06Z This low is forecasted to work due East this will drag the cold front into our central FA of MN by 12Z Sunday...Frontal boundary clear the area later Sunday night and by 00Z Monday should be in Eastern WI....Will have to go with likely hood on showers and some thunderstorms for Sunday in Sunday night....Attm no severe thunderstorms are forecasted...Though most areas should see some much need rainfall by Sunday evening....
Monday through Tuesday.
I have decided to run with partly sky wording in the forecast though did kick the idea about keeping a few showers in the Far Northeastern part of our WI FA as this areas still may be close enough for wrap around light showers....Still have time to change it if needed....
Other than that this time frame will rather dull and cool...Did think about dropping the temps into the 30 across much of the area with the mention of frost Tuesday night...Still not to thrilled on that just yet,however it is something I will have to watch....
Wednesday through Thursday.
Next system should move into the area on Wednesday and hold into Thursday evening...This system as of right now looks to give us another good shot at rainfall..We will watch this...

Thunderstorm days for August

In August we saw 6 thunderstorms days this was down from July by 7days....Some people ask me what are thunderstorm days...Well a thunderstorm day is when one can hear thunder,though the thunderstorm may not be over head it is still consider a thunderstorm day.....Ok moving on ward..
Also in the month of August most parts of the Western/Northwestern WI saw their first frost of the this Early fall...Though it was not a killing a frost,still there was frost on the windshields of cars,and trucks.This occurred on August 24 th...Here again people asked me if this is normal..Well yes and no...Here is what I mean...As a rule we don't see frost in August however it has happened many times before....It is not that uncommon as people think..It is that the cold air doesn't stick around that long and as a rule it get hot right after the cold snap,which was the case..So people tend to forget about the brief cold....As they will be talking about the hot humid air,as was the deal after the first frost this season....
I will be updating my website this weekend....
Also I side note all those nice sunsets we have been treated to over the last two weeks or so are caused by an volcano up in Alaska....As the ash cloud as made it this far South in the upper levels of the atmosphere...Will post pictures of that to my website this weekend sometime..So stay tuned!

Hanna and Ike's forecast plus your local forecast

My first forecast for Hanna can be found on my below so if one wants to compare them....
Hanna really has not got much of a chance to get her act going as she has been in the battle with wind shear and dry air,however still a strong TS must of the models keep her at TS level.Though it could be possible Hanna could reach Cat 1 hurricane by time it comes ashore...Hanna is located about 400 -430 miles South of Wilmington NC..Moving Northwest....However models do show Hanna making a slight turn to the North...NAM has Hanna at 986 MB of pressure this morning which is close to the OBS report....NAM has Hanna moving just off shore of FL MBS do come a little to around 991 as it tracks just East of FL...NAM has Hanna making landfall in about the same area as the previous forecast has stated(see my Blog).....From there Hanna works her way up and through the Eastern States...Looks to be a lot of heavy rain falling through out most of the Eastern states for this weekend....Now lets look at the GFS model...GFS has Hanna's pressure at 994 MBS right now this almost 10 MBS weaker than NAM and the OBS reports....GFS weaken Hanna to around 1000 MBS by time it makes landfall...Projected landfall by GFS is much more North than in my last forecast....GFS has landfall coming in around Northeast SC to around Southeast NC....From there GFS works Hanna up along the Eastern States closer to the shore while Nam has Hanna further inland...No matter what model is right one thing is assured heavy rain for the Eastern States...Lets look at the QPF As much as 5.76 inches are forecasted long the Eastern coast states all the way up to Maine by time it's all said and done...I would say if you are in the Central and Eastern parts of the Coast states you shall see the heaviest rains....
Lets talk about Hurricane Ike for a little.
Ike is now at Cat 3 status...Ike is heading for the Caicos and Turks Islands,He is forecasted to be around said Islands and the Southeastern Bahamas by Sunday...Ike is forecasted to weaken some over the few days,However the long range models do show him restrengthening...Long rage Models showing Ike making landfall over far Southern FL around the late Tuesday night/Early Wednesday morning time frame...We will watch it and try to update the forecast as seen fit...
Now your local forecast for West Central and Northwest WI...
Areas of morning fog will be burning off as we go through this first Friday of September....Temps at this hour are rather chilly...39.8 degrees here at the office outside of Rice lake also 39 being reported in Hayward,other than that SFC OBS showing temps in the lower 40s this morning...Cloud cover form the leftovers of Gustav now out of the FA...Which is not uncommon to get clouds and percip from TS,and hurricanes this far North,I have seen this many of times...Everyone talks like its a big deal well in reality it's not...Anyway clouds will be on the increase as a weak low moves well North and West of the FA....If the FA area was to see rain it would be up in the Northwestern areas...Better chance at rainfall for the FA comes into play tomorrow through Sunday...Temps will be well below norms for the next week...Highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s.....

Northern lights right now for WI and MN

KP is now at 6...One would be able to see the Northern lights right now,however you won't do to due the cloud cover from the leftovers of Gustav..I did check with the hopes there would have been so breaks in the clouds...No such luck there......Side note I will being doing an updated and detailed forecast for Hanna and Ike....Ike is now a Cat 4.....Will be doing this after my 12 hour shift today....Hope this will keep us from working tomorrow!
That's all for now.

Gustav and the forecast for Hanna

Hurricane Gustav...LA.Still getting pounded by Cat 1 Gustav at this hour...Gustav made landfall this morning 15 miles Southwest of Houma Currently the center of circulation is Southeast of Saint Martinville or just Northeast of New Iberia....Gustav should continue to weaken to TS limits as it moves Northwest into TX,it should then weaken to a TD as it moves North through East Central/Northeastern TX....I have seen alot of talk about this system stalling out over LA...I don't see that happen as of right now..I do see this system slowly moving through said parts of TX before a cold front picks up the left overs and pushes into Southern AR or Northern LA..This system will continue to produce heavy rainfall for LA,AR,and parts of TX......
Now lets talk about Hurricane Hanna....
Hanna has reached cat 1 status this early this afternoon....Hurricane Hanna will keep producing heavy rain and heavy winds over the Bahamas through Wednesday....Nam and GFS models are very close in the track and strength of Hurricane Hanna through 0000 UTC Friday...However Nam takes the center a little closer to the FL Coast....While GFS keep the center out a ways....These difs aren't going to make that much of difference.....Will run with GFS with a blend of Nam for this discussion..
Center pressure is down to around 985 MBS this is much lower than forecast by the models...So this does make this forecast a little on edge as to what cat this storm is going to be as it gets closer to FL and GA....Will nail that part down through out this week....However as of right now GFS is forecasting Hanna to start to move Northwest ...Hanna should just be off the Coast of FL,Hanna will keep tracking Northwest towards GA's Coast line.Around the Friday's morning's time frame...Hanna appears to stay just off shore...Now Hanna is forecasted to make landfall in Northeast GA/Southeastern SC......With the info I'm looking at right now I'm going to stay Hanna will make landfall between these two points...
From Blackbread Island GA up to Edisto Beach SC...Landfall looks to be on Friday late morning into the early afternoon hours.....GFS has the pressure down to around 992 MBS by time Hanna makes landfall...So looks like Hanna will be close enough to FL,and GA for heavy rainfall amounts...Also as it makes landfall in said areas above heavy rainfall in storm for SC..Hanna is forecasted to weaken to a TD as it moves inland...This system is forecasted to move up along the Eastern States through the rest of the week and into the Northeast for the upcoming weekend.....I will have updates on Hanna every night....