***HIGH WIND WARNING***

All my years living up here I never see the NWS issue a high wind warning....Taken from the NWS...My forecast will be out later tonight or tomorrow morning...Yes snow still looks to be in the forecast...Storm track still not written in stone so anything can change yet.....

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED


A HIGH WIND WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO

7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.





* TIMING...WEST WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP TUESDAY MORNING AND

LAST AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.



* WINDS...SUSTAINED WEST WINDS COULD REACH 30 TO 40 MPH...WITH

GUSTS BETWEEN 55 TO 60 MPH ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. OPEN

AREAS OR LOCATIONS OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER TERRAIN ARE VULNERABLE

TO THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS.



* IMPACTS...WINDS THIS STRONG COULD LEAD TO DOWNED TREES AND POWER

LINES OR CAUSE MINOR DAMAGE TO STRUCTURES. DRIVING MAY BECOME

CHALLENGING FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES...AND LOOSE OUTDOOR

OBJECTS MAY BE BLOWN AROUND.





PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...



A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED

OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS

OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE.

Snow still looking likely for parts of the FA

Just a fast write up... Strong winds will become a problem for the area mainly Monday night through Thursday....Showers and thunderstorms chances on the increase once again for Monday late afternoon lasting through Tuesday...Could see 1 to 2 inches of rain with higher amounts possible...Strong cold front drags in colder air into the area we should see rain mixing with snow Tuesday night And should see that go through Wednesday Wednesday night into Thursday rain should become all snow North of a line from Luck in Polk County to Comstock to Canton in Barron County to Bruce and Ladysmith over in Rusk County.... These area could see accumulating of several inches.... Still the track of the low and timing of the cold air will make or break this...Along with how much moisture will still be around by then....More details in tomorrow's forecast.... This blast of cold air should be short lived,also it will depend on if parts of the area do indeed get a snow pack on the ground,this would hold temps down... So lots of things to watch... So extended forecast is on hold untill this very strong system is over....

Watching the middle of next week closely

Still watching the possibility of a major snow storm close to home for the middle part of next week. Our long dry spell is about to come to an end this weekend..So lots to talk about this morning….


***CURRENT CONDITIONS***

This morning we are greeted to temp in the upper 20s to lower 30s..Cold spot is HYR coming in at 23.Winds are rather light out of the South… Satellite showing clear skis, though one would not need a satellite to figure that out….

***FORECAST ANALYSIS AND FORECAST DISCUSSION***

Models are in rather good agreement in the short term….A little placement problems here and there…. 1017 MB high pressure centered over Southwest WI/Northeast IA/Northeast IA this morning is forecasted to drift into the TN valley, Winds have already backed to the South.. Mean while a 1006 MB low pressure is forecasted to move into Central MT… WAA is forecasted to really crank up this afternoon between these two features…. Highs should have no problem getting into the lower 60s.. Would not be surprised to see some middle 60s in my Southern Central areas along with my Southern areas…Northern areas should top off in the upper 50s to right around 60….Tonight we start to see an upper level low eject out of the Southwest CONUS along with it’s SFC low pressure…All this should do is increase the clouds…Also will with the cloud cover on the increase temps should remain warmer that last night’s temps… SFC lows pushes Northeast wards to Southern NE.. Moisture will be on the increase which in return will lead to showers. Can’t rule out one or two thunderstorms over my Southern areas..Will have to watch to see if thunder wording is need more North tomorrow… SFC low washes out over Southern MN/Northern IA however will still keep rain alive for Sunday night….We get a break in the action late Sunday night into early Monday morning before the next system plows into the area… Here is where things start to get a little tricky… GFS show a 982 MB low pressure riding the US/Canada border by Tuesday GFS has said low over far Northwestern MN and deepens it to around 980 MBS early Tuesday morning, meanwhile GFS shows a trof of low pressure over OK/KS area….Moisture will not be a problem streaming into the FA as the GOM is wide open for business. By Tuesday night GFS pushes said low towards Thunderbay Canada and deepens it more down to around 966 MBS at the same time is pushes a cold front into and through the area.. By late Wednesday night /early Thurs morning GFS has said low over Southern Hudson Bay area…With wrap around moisture see no reason not to keep a chance of precip going through Thurs… By then enough cold air should be over head for rain/snow from Wed night into Thurs….

Lets take a looks at the ECMWF model…

Here we see a 987 MB lower over the ND/Canada border on Tuesday by Wed ECMWF pushes the low to over Lake Superior and bombs it out to 966 MBS so ECWMF is a tad slower and more South with the low pressure… This model also shows an 984 MB low pressure over Southern KS this low gets pulled into the Northern low while GFS has it as a trof and pulls it Northeast into said low… so timing and placement are still off on the models as we see the flip flopping game has began… Models are also showing warmer air with this system as hinted in last night’s forecast discussion.

We will have to keep a close eye on how all this is going to play out as it still has the makings of a major winter storm close to if not in the FA…. Either way it will be windy system…. Gales looking more likely on Lake Superior Tuesday through Wed night…. Enough cold air should be drawn South to at least have rain mixing if not changing to some snow showers attm… Again this is all subject to change….So stay tuned as we play flip flop the forecast for the middle part of next week, over the next two days….

Major snow storm?

Unreal is the way to sum up what may happen next week....We could be dealing with our first major winter storm of the session.Details below....

High pressure that brought us a cool day is forecasted to move East/Southeast tonight this will allow for winds to back to the Southwest this will aid in keep the temps up some as WAA slowly kicks in…Tomorrow area still under the influence of the high pressure to our East/Southeast and a low pressure system to our Southwest…..Low tonight should drop into the upper 20s and lower 30s throughout the FA….Highs on Friday should be in the upper 50s to lower 60s, won’t be shocked to see a few middle 60s showing up in the Southern parts of the FA….


Saturday is looking wetter for the area a the low pressure system moves Northeast this along with strong jet sitting darn near over head and wit some good moisture returning to the area …Showers will be likely along with a shot at thunderstorm or two as there is some instability forecasted. Will hang out the rain chances right through Sunday….Highs on Saturday should be in the middle 50s while lows stay in the middle 40s…About the same for Sunday…. Looks like Monday will be a repeat of the weekend…..

Now time to talk about the possibility of a major winter storm that could very will hit parts of the FA next week…. Though things are still unclear as timing and how much cold air that will make it down into the system before it pulls away….Along with the track of the storm system…. Things are slowly coming together…..Very strong jet is forecasted to set up from Northern CA across the UT,CO,KS,Northern MO then reaching into Eastern WI. Low pressure is forecasted to move out of the Southwestern States and ride the Jet Northeast wards to South Central WI/Northern IL. As it does the low is forecasted to become stronger by time it reaches Southern WI/into Northeastern WI….. Moisture looks not to be a problem with this system as the GOM is wide open….Now a few things that could go wrong…. First off the track shifts to the West allowing for more warmer air to get pulled into the FA…. Another one is if severe thunderstorms form to the South and rob the moisture flowing North… This is so far out there I sure wouldn’t bet the farm on it…Nevertheless it’s something to watch as it could have impacts on the FA….. Time will only tell….. Will keep updating this forecast…..

Snow next week?? maybe..

Interesting weather pattern shaping up for next week..We been talking about this for sometime time…Looks like our first snowfall of the session may be on the way…. We will get to this in while….


***FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION***

This afternoon the FA is locked under clouds and light rain showers/sprinkles as a cold front is working its way through the area..Cold front is knocking on our front door…Winds will be picking up after the frontal passage, though the strongest winds will be found out over in MN….. Tonight cold front races off to the East/Southeast should see skies become partly cloudy…. Thursday we see a 1018 MB high pressure build into the area this will bring us clear skies, with rather strong CAA moving into the FA don’t except to see temps warm a lot… Upper 40s to lower 50s seem the way to run.. This cold air will be short lived as the high pressure slips down into Northeast MO return flow should begin tomorrow night, As winds become more out of the Southwest..Lows Thursday night in the middle 30s… Friday WAA well under way under sunny skies temps should reach for the lower 60s across much of the area… Somewhat cooler air returns for the upcoming weekend similar today as another cold front and a 1001 MB low pressure system moves towards the area…..Should also see a chance at some light rain showers/sprinkles once again…Rain chance will be on the increase as we head through the weekend into early next week….

***EXTENDED FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH HALLOWEEN***

This is where things could become interesting in the Tuesday night/Wednesdays time frame….GFS shows an 981 MB low pressure along the MT/Canada border… GFS pushes this low into far Northwestern WI/Western Lake Superior by Tuesday night and deepen low to around 970 MBS then it races the low Northeast well into Canada…. GFS shows a rather cold punch of cold air as a cold front plows through the area, thickness values drop off, 540 thickness line well to our South and East for late Tuesday night and Wednesday… It this does pan out this would lead to rain and snow showers becoming all snow showers….Now looking at the ECMWF model we see more problem come into play…This model does have a low pressure along the Canada/USA border it has the low somewhat weaker around 987 MBS..Also we see a 998 MB over the OK panhandle this low is forecasted to lift Northeast to around Southern IA/Northern MO by Thursday… Then through Northeast IL Thursday late afternoon then into Canada Friday…ECMWF does show warmer air in place over the GFS’S colder air in place…Though a Northwest flow is forecasted to become stronger… So as one can see many problems with this forecasted time frame… Nevertheless the potential does exist for our first snowfall of the session… We shall see….. Bright side Halloween looks to be dry,may be on the cool side, but no Halloween blizzards in the offering...

The forecast for Western/Northwestern WI

Back to cooler temps for the short term and most of the extended forecast..Problems today shall be the winds…Have decided to go higher than thought yesterday as models are more in line with that will talk about that in a few….


***CURRENT CONDITIONS***

At the 7 AM hour we find temps mainly in the upper 30s to lower 40s across the FA….Satellite imagery is showing a band of clouds through Northern MN down to Southwest MN through NE…..This is also confirmed by SFC OBS…Winds this morning are still rather light out of the Southeast ranging from calm to around 7 MPH……Skies are PC to clear for now…. Radar is showing a few returns in North Central MN with the dry air in place its highly unlikely anything is reaching the ground… SFC OBS show no precip….

***ANALYSIS***

Cold front in Central MN will race East/Southeast this morning….Winds will start to pick up from the Southwest just ahead of said front before switching to the West/Northwest….Once cold front pushes through winds will become gusty with gusts from the 25 to as high as 30 MPH through out much of the FA.. Will see a period of clouds as the front moves through not looking at any rain, however a few sprinkles at best may be possible along the frontal boundary..Highly unlikey with dry air in place…. 1022 MB high pressure builds into the area after front clear… Winds will become light to calm this will allow temps to fall into the lower 30s across much of the area, frost is a likely bet for tonight…Sunday high pressure remains in control of our weather,however models showing another frontal boundary moving into the area for Sunday night into early Monday morning… Moisture is lacking so not buying into rain chances as models have it… Even if it does happen amounts would be so light… So nothing there to get excited about….Looking into Tuesday still looks dry with temps in the 50s lows in the 30s….

***EXTENED OUTLOOK***

Problems still showing up on the Tuesday night/Wednesday time frame…

GFS still wants to bring down colder air into the FA…. Still shows LES across the snow belt areas of WI..Even by Thursday night GFS wants to bring snow as far South into my Northern Central FA…. I’m just not buying into this… ECMWF keeps column profile rather warm and near SFC temps to warm for snow….Will run with a dry forecast for my whole FA ATTM…. As ECMWF model has it…..Temps are forecast to mainly be in the 50s, however by weeks end temps show a warming trend into the upper 50s to lower 60s…. By Monday the 26 we see another system moving into the area this could bring a chance of rain back into the FA..GFS still wants to drag the 540 thickness line South throughout my Northwestern areas into my Central areas Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning if this does happen we could be dealing with our first snowfall of the season ..It does not appear to be anything big ATTM, but something we will be watching…Halloween looks dry as of right now…..This is so far out in time I sure would not bet the farm on it…..

Forecast for Western/Northwestern WI

For the most part the forecast looks to be dry with near normal temps through the weekend and much of next week. Tomorrow will be gusty day as a cold front plows the area. Little to no moisture for front to work with, so only expecting some morning clouds.. They will mix out by afternoon as much dry mixes down to the surface winds could gust up to 20 MPH though out much of the FA….Problems do show up on Tuesday-Wednesdays time frame…. Shortwave is forecasted to be North of the area up in Canada however long range models really don’t see eye to eye on this… GFS wants to bring colder air into the area while ECMWF keeps temps warmer… So if GFS is right there could be a chance at some lake effect snows across the snow belt areas. 540 thickness line does drop far enough South to even have a chance of snow as far South as my Central FA areas…. However as of right now am not buying into that….Not sure if I even buy into lake effect snows just yet….


One thing that did catch my eyes is in the longer forecast period Monday the 25 and Tuesday the 26th… Long range models are hinting at a chance of snow for the FA 540 line drops well South of the FA… If this does happen along with an area of low pressure moving through we could very well see out first snowfall of the season … This so far out there in time I sure would not get excited about it just yet, nevertheless it’s some I shall be watching over the next week….