Forecast for Western/Northwestern WI/added snowfall map

Forecast headaches…. A storm system that could bring accumulating snows close to if not over the FA for the upcoming weekend…. Snow is also possible for Thursday/Thursday night…Slight warming trend before the Arctic flood gates open back up… This will allow for the coldest air thus far this winter…


***CURRENT CONDITIONS***
As of the 10 AM hr we see temps in the lower single digits to the upper single digits. Skies for the most part are Sunny to partly cloudy with some areas of snow flurries… Winds from the North/Northwest around 3 to 9 MPH…

***FORECAST DISCUSSION & ANAYLSIS***
Don’t be alarmed that big bright yellow thing in the sky is only the sun, bests better enjoy it today and tomorrow as it won’t last long as we got to weather features we need to talk about..First one is cut and dry. The second one is not so easy…. For today through Wednesday look for partly sunny to mostly sunny skies temps won’t be going much higher than they are now.. Upper single digits to lower teens should work rather well… Tonight temps will depend on if clouds over take the FA once again is so temps should stay above zero, if not temps will fall to below zero once again… Wednesday temps warm into the upper teens as WAA slowly kick in ahead of a weak storm system.. 1000 MB low pressure is forecasted to move along the US/Canada border Thursday through Thursday night this system has little moisture to work with, however enough lifted to cause 1 to 3 inches of snow for my Central/Central and Northern areas… While them Southern Central and Southern areas may see some freezing drizzle and light snow… Little to no accumulations are expected in those areas….Best chance at seeing 1 to 3 inches of snow will be North of a Balsam Lake, Barron, and Ladysmith… Points South of that line less than 1 inch….

Now on to our problem system….Looking at the ECMWF model first Upper level low that has been locked in place for an extended period of time over the Northeastern CONUS is forecasted to left Northeast… This will allow for a few problems… 1st off a 100 MB low pressure system is forecasted to form over Western NE on Friday/Friday night… This low is then forecasted to lift Northeast Southern WI/Northern IL on Saturday as it does its forecasted to deepen to around 996 MBS… System will has moisture to work with as the GOM opens up… If this track plays out my Central and Southern areas could see accumulating snows…However not only the track will play a role the push of Arctic air behind Thursday/Thursday nights system will also be a key factor..If the push comes in faster this could push the storm system well to the South….Lets look at the GFS model… GFS has the system forming in Northeast CO about 1008 MBS then GFA pushes this system into Southern/Central MO and deepens it to 998 MBS Then GFS moves the system Northeast along the Eastern Coastline… GFS has the Arctic air pushing into the FA sooner than ECWMF… GFS has a 1038 MB high pressure building into the area for the weekend.. So if GFS is right we won’t see much in the way of snowfall throughout the FA also less winds for the FA…….Looking at the GEM-GLB model…This model has the storm system tracking South of the area through Central IL… This will keep the snowfall still South of the FA..What is interesting is that the UKMET model agrees with the GFS on the track of the system…Though somewhat weaker until the system moves into the Northeastern States….. One thing that will save this forecast from busting is time, has we have time to watch this still.. So will not pull out the big guns just yet, will save that for Thursday’s update… One thing that is a giving on all models is next week the Arctic air will be in place… Lows could fall into the teens below zero if not twenties below zero for some areas, with highs either side of zero…..
Below is our snowfall map valid from Thursday through Thursday night.

Forecast for Western/Northwestern WI.

Forecast problems… Temps are going to be tricky...LES…Then our next weather maker for Thursday/Thursday night… Then more Arctic air on the way after that…


***CURRENT CONDITIONS***

At the 6 AM we find a rather large range in temps….Where skies are clear temps have dropped to 2° to 5°…Where skies are cloudy temps are range from 11° to 16°…. Temps still could fall off a few more degrees as we head towards sunrise… There has been some light snow/flurries reported across the area…. Winds are from the West/Northwest from 3 to 10 MPH….This is causing wind chills to fall from 2°+ to -8°….

***FORECAST DICUSSION AND ANALYSIS***

Looking at the SFC charts this morning we find a rather large 1036 MB high pressure centered over Southeastern SD per RCU, while GFS/NAM have the center a little more North or West..Looking at the 500 MB charts upper level low pressure is centered just North of NY. Meanwhile we find a building ridge in the Western states…. Both these features will insure us of a Northwesterly flow.. We also find a upper level low/trough out over the Pacific ocean…
What this means our weather shall remain cold through midweek…With off and on clouds from weak shortwaves dropping South/Southeast in the Northwesterly flow…. Back down at the SFC charts… Looking at the GFS model we see things really don’t change in the weather pattern through Tuesday night, Wednesday high pressure is forecasted to move of the area this will allow for WAA to slowly kick back in as we get a return flow from the South/Southwest this will allow for temps to warm back into the middle to upper teens…Meantime a piece of energy breaks off from the upper level low off the Western Canada Coast.. This move into Southern Alberta Canada then down into Northwest ND by late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning.. This low is forecasted to move into Southwestern MN early Thursday morning and weaken to around 1000 MBS…By late Thursday night/early Friday morning the low is forecasted to be centered in Western MI… Still looks to bring accumulating snows back into the FA… Track of this system is more North than the last one we just done dealing with, so if this works out the heavier snow bands will be setting up more North…. ECMWF model agrees on the track, however its much weaker with the system…. Both models do agree on another Arctic blast along with strong Northwest/North winds behind this system…..
LES will still be a problem through my LES belts as cold Northwest/North wind flow over the warm waters of Lake Superior… This may be ongoing thing through Tuesday night before the SFC winds become more westerly.
In fact the light snow/flurries we are seeing this morning and throughout the rest of the day, is thanks to Lake Superior…..
So for today through Wednesday looks for off and on clouds with flurries today……Temps could have a wide range to them… Places that see more clear skies will be colder than other places seeing cloudy skies…. So will run like this
Highs from today through Tuesday 13 to 16 with lows from -10 to plus 3…..That should cover it rather good…Wednesday and Thursday temps warm into the upper teens to lower 20s…Lows in the upper single digits to the lower teens….. Snow is looking like a good bet for Thursday/Thursday night…. Will issue a snowfall map on Tuesday or Tuesday night if needed…. Arctic air slams back into the area for next weekend into the following work week… More on that later… However that looks to be our coldest air yet of the this winter…..

Fast forecast

Notice this is going to a fast forecast,hope to go more in details tomorrow, depending how I feel.
Are you ready for the Arctic blast? if not to late... Temps are going to drop tonight into the single digits, if we can get the clouds to move out sooner we could go below zero with the fresh snow pack....Tomorrow look for highs in the lower teens under mostly sunny conditions....Sunday night temps will range from -10 to +3....This cold trend holds right through Wednesday...Slightly warmer on Wednesday...GFS and ECMWF are is rather good agreement on the next clipper forecasted to bring another round of accumulating snows to the FA Thrusday and Thursday night...The track looks to be more North this time around, which would bring the heavier snows North.. So as it looks right now most of the FA will get more snowfall... To early to to figure out amounts ATTM... The system does look to be just as strong as this past one..
LES still look to be a problem for my LES belts in Ashland and Iron Counties...Through 1 PM tomorrow..As much as 4 to 6 inches could fall in those areas...

Winter storm update along with snowfall amounts.Updated my snow amount@11:37 AM

So far from the reports I have been seeing does look the forecast verified rather well… So lets take a look at some of the reports… Reports can from the NWS in the Twin Cities and Duluth….


As of 8:21 Am 4 miles North of Grantsburg 2.00”…. Burnett County

As of 4:32 AM Saroina 0.05”… Washburn County

Those are the only reports so from the Duluth NWS….

As of 8:40 AM here at the office 6 miles Northwest of Rice Lake 3.00”... Barron County

As of 8:00 AM Augusta 4.20”... Eau Claire County

As of 8:07 AM Bloomer 3.00” ...Chippewa County

As of 8:06 AM 3 miles North of Cameron 2.30”.... Barron County

As of 7:43 AM Elk Mound 3.80”... Dunn County

As of 7:05 AM Baldwin 5.00”.... ST. Croix County

As of 6:22 AM New Richmond 4.60”.... ST. Croix County

As of 6:32 AM Jim Falls 2.06”... Chippewa County

AS of 1:45 AM 5 miles Southeast of Eau Claire 3.00”... Eau Claire County.

Now on to some reports from late last night early morning hrs… Some of these areas may report a little more,however with matching these up with the late morning reports I don’t expect the amount to change that much…

As of 12:45 AM Menomonie 3.00”... Dunn County

As of 12:00 AM New Richmond 3.00”.... St. Croix County, as seeing above they didn’t pick up much more….

As of 12:25 AM 5 miles Southeast of Eau Claire 2.00”.... Eau Claire County…..

As of 12:20 AM Clayton 2.00”... Polk County..

That is most of the reports as of now…..Again I really don’t expect them to change a lot….
As of 11:37 AM here at the office we picked up another 0.75" of snow that brings the total up to 3.75" as of right now....

Forecast stands

I still see no reason to change the ongoing forecast or forecasted snowfall amount.. So map does stay the same to...Though places I have the 1 to 3 inches of snow may see less than 1 inch of snow through Saturday... Track of the low pressure system as not changed from yesterday's forecast... Only thing that changed was the best forcing has setup a little more South than thought yesterday... Still radar is showing some heavy bands of snow over Eastern MN,Other heavier snow bands have setup over parts of Central and Southen MN.... The snow still has remain rather light in most of the my WI,that is soon to change....So with all the trends and data I'm looking at going to leave ongoing forecast and snowfall map as is....

The forecast for Western/Northwestern WI.

Forecast concerns…. Last night was our coldest night of the session, temps dropped in the lows single digits to below zero…Here at the office we recorded a low of -2° meanwhile Siren came in with -1° so far those have been the coldest readings I have seen in the SFC OBS……Next on the list is the significant snowfall possible for my far Southern two Counties…The a shot of more Arctic air on its way… So lets get right into this all of this….


***CURRENT CONDITIONS***
Not really much time for current conditions ATTM...

***SFC AND UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST DISCUSSION***

Looking at the SFC charts this morning we find a short-wave centered over Northwest IA/Northeastern NE… This has been the cause for some light snow/flurries out over Southwestern MN…. This feature is forecasted to fill/washout…. Also we find a rather large ridge of High pressure 1028 MBS centered just North of Central ND…. Meantime we find forming low pressure over South Central Alberta Canada…. This will turn into our next system of interest… More on that if a few….Looking at the upper levels we still find a rather large trough of low pressure digging into the eastern part of the CONUS… Keeping my FA under Northwesterly flow….This is forecasted to slowly work East/Northeast… NAM and ECWMF in rather good agreement on the weather features…. GFS does seem a little on the fast side with the clipper system….So for now will leave GFS out in the back 40….. Today high pressure builds into the area this will allow for a partly cloudy day ,there still will be slight chance at some flurries as we are still close enough to the 500 MB low pressure…. Satellite does show more clouds lurking to our North/Northwest see no reason why that won’t drift in from time to time… Temps today should only hit the upper teens throughout a good chunk of the FA… Some lower 20s will be possible over my Southern Counties… Tonight 1028 MB high pressure is forecasted to be centered over Western MN this will allow skies to once again clear off… Winds will become calm this should allow for another cold night with temps falling back into the single digits to below zero once again…Looking at the RH charts we should see clouds start to increase tomorrow morning as the system starts it trek to the Southeast…. So time to talk about this clipper……For the most part NAM and ECWMF are in rather good agreement… Still the placement of snow is still a little in the air yet… GFS would have the heavier snows more South then ECWMF, NAM would place the whole FA in the heavier snows…. So have decide to blend all three models as I like parts of each one…. So the low pressure is forecasted to move Southeast into Northeast WY then track to about East Central NE then over to down to Northeast MO.. This would put my far Southern Counties is area to pick up 6 to 8 inches of snow, while the rest of the FA will see from 1 to 6 inches of snow…. See our snowfall map below…. Behind this system the Arctic flood gates open up as Northwesterly winds funnel down more cold air… Temps should be below norms throughout much of next week… Should also remain dry…. More on the long range forecast after we are done dealing with this system……

methods of weather forecasting

Forecasting methods we use at The Weather Center… Before I get to that…. Long before someone can really forecast the weather you need to have an understanding of the atmosphere and its physics, along with SFC terrain as terrain can and does effect the forecast on a local scale.. Ok lets talk about some of the methods we use to come up with our forecasts.


1. Persistence method….. This method assumes that the current weather pattern won’t change through the forecast cycle ..This method will bust if the weather patterns are changing rather fast… So this method is not the best in the short term forecast, however does work out rather well in the long term forecasts, out past 10 days and even month to month forecast….

2. Trends method….. This method involves mathematics in determining the speed/direction weather systems are moving… This method works rather great for nowcasting (now to 2hrs out in time) for an example lets say there is a severe thunderstorm west of the area by 60 miles… We have figured out the storm is moving East at 30 MPH, this would put the storm in the area in about 2 hrs…. Caution has to be used with this method in nowcasting as storms can pick up speed and changed direction of travel.. This method is rather well for short term forecasting a day or two if the weather pattern is not being blocked.

3. Climatology method…… This is another rather easy method to use, however do require a little more time… As one will be looking at years of weather data for a day one is forecasting for…. You will look at the SFC OBS/reports from the past then you will need to avg them all out then you have your climatology forecast for that day… Now this method only works if the weather pattern in its self is similar to the data…. This method will bust if the weather pattern is not typical for that time of year….

4. Analog method…. This method is a little more complicated however it is used… What you want to do is look at today’s weather scenario then remembering a day back in time that the same or close to the same setup as today’s…. You will never find the exact match however you will get a close match which will allow you to come up with a forecast… This method is good for detailing larger events…

5. NWP for known as the Numerical Weather Prediction, or as the Computer models…. This method is very difficult to master, there is a lot of information one has to understand which is another whole write up, so for now will touch on some of it…. First off you need to understand each forecasting model and its limitations, along with its bias… You need to understand the gaps in the system as this will play havoc on the forecast...If not all the info is in the computers it will through off the analysis which in turn can/will effect the forecast.. This has been better over the years….One needs to look at all the forecasting models to see which models agree and ones that don’t… One has to also look at past runs to see how much things have changed in between the model its self… One wants to match the SFC OBS/Satellite imagery to the forecasting model analysis to see how close the model is matching up in real time.. This just a very limited amount of things one must know…. Another key factor is one has to look at all the computer models data, not just the temps and precip data…. One needs to looks at all levels to see what is taking place higher up than the SFC…. Knowledge is the key factor when interpreting forecast models… One can tell a beginner forecaster from a long time forecaster just by reading their forecast discussions … … Example…. A beginner or one with less knowledge forecast discussion may read like this… Models have a low over CO.. Models don’t agree on the track of the low… Well really that isn’t saying much at all… What its telling me is the forecaster is unsure of them self’s and I wonder how they came up with their forecasts… Now a long time or more knowledgeable forecaster’s discussion would read more like this…. GFS has a 997 MB low pressure over CO..This model is forecasting the storm to move East and so one… Then you will see another model brought up like so…. Nam as the low pressure system a tad North of GFS and a little stronger down to around 994 MBS Nam takes the low more North than GFS… ECMWF also agrees with NAM however ECWMF is a little weaker with the low, as it at 999 MBS…. So will use a blend on the NAM and ECWMF to come up with this forecast…. That is just an example…. If one wants to keep the forecast easy that is great but there should be no reason to talk about the forecasting models then…That will confuse people if the forecaster can’t or won’t explain them..

We do use all the methods talked about above some more than others…. Plus we use other tools like skew, bufkit data just to name a few…