Moonshot
1 year ago
Saturday, December 11, 2010
Updated snowfall amounts.
Had to update the snowfall map once again.... Did expand more of my FA to the 18 to 20 inches of snow,meanwhile I did up the 15 plus areas to now 20 to 24 inches.... Busy early morning in the office as we are watching the snow make a Northward push...Heavy snow is now falling in ST.Croix and Dunn Counties along with Counties to their South light to mod snow is starting to fall throughout the Barron,Polk, Burnett, and parts of Washburn and Rusk Counties... Look for the heavier snows to move North... Snowfall rates from 1 to 2 inches per hr looks to be a good bet.. Should see from 6 to 10 inches of snow by day break..With another 4 to 12 inches throughout the day light hrs....See map for total snowfall amounts...
Friday, December 10, 2010
***MAJOR WINTER STORM***
***DANGEROUS WINTER STORM TO EFFECT THE FORECAST AREA***
Timing late tonight through Saturday evening.
Forecast models in rather good agreement, just some timing issues I do like the ECWMF, Nam, and SREF for this storm system…
Low pressure will be moving along the MN/IA border tonight and then Across far Southern WI as it does the low is forecasted to deepen…I have decided to expand the heavier snowfall amounts all the to include Polk, ST. Croix Counties in the 12 to 15 inch range… I has also decided to go higher with 15 plus inches for most of Barron County, small part of Northeastern Dunn County, Northern part of Chippewa County, South/Southeast part of Washburn County, all of Rusk County and a good part of Sawyer County…South/Southern parts of Ashland and Iron Counties…. Rest of the forecast area should see 8 to 12 inches of snow… Map below….. Reason for upping the snow amounts is as the low deepens just to our South it should pull more moisture into the area…In my Southern zones could be a time that there is some freezing rain/sleet mix in from time to time…
Now as the low deepens and strong high pressure to our West/Northwest pressure gradients will increase… This will lead to winds up to 30 MPH at times.. This will cause widespread near to blizzard conditions throughout the FA, mainly in open Country areas…. Near to whiteout conditions will make for travel to become impossible… Now is the time to get ready for what looks to be the biggest snow storm so far this winter…. I would not be shocked in the NWS runs with a blizzard warning later today/night…. If one has to travel later tonight/tomorrow make sure you have a winter weather safety kit in your vehicle…Let someone know your travel plans with time of leaving and time of arrival….If you become stuck stay with your vehicle and call for help… Best thing to do is get your running around done today/early tonight, and hunker down later tonight/tomorrow…To tops things off Arctic air will be flowing into the area as well this will lead to very dangerous wind chills… -15 to -25….. As temps slowly fall throughout the day…
This is a dangerous winter storm…
Timing late tonight through Saturday evening.
Forecast models in rather good agreement, just some timing issues I do like the ECWMF, Nam, and SREF for this storm system…
Low pressure will be moving along the MN/IA border tonight and then Across far Southern WI as it does the low is forecasted to deepen…I have decided to expand the heavier snowfall amounts all the to include Polk, ST. Croix Counties in the 12 to 15 inch range… I has also decided to go higher with 15 plus inches for most of Barron County, small part of Northeastern Dunn County, Northern part of Chippewa County, South/Southeast part of Washburn County, all of Rusk County and a good part of Sawyer County…South/Southern parts of Ashland and Iron Counties…. Rest of the forecast area should see 8 to 12 inches of snow… Map below….. Reason for upping the snow amounts is as the low deepens just to our South it should pull more moisture into the area…In my Southern zones could be a time that there is some freezing rain/sleet mix in from time to time…
Now as the low deepens and strong high pressure to our West/Northwest pressure gradients will increase… This will lead to winds up to 30 MPH at times.. This will cause widespread near to blizzard conditions throughout the FA, mainly in open Country areas…. Near to whiteout conditions will make for travel to become impossible… Now is the time to get ready for what looks to be the biggest snow storm so far this winter…. I would not be shocked in the NWS runs with a blizzard warning later today/night…. If one has to travel later tonight/tomorrow make sure you have a winter weather safety kit in your vehicle…Let someone know your travel plans with time of leaving and time of arrival….If you become stuck stay with your vehicle and call for help… Best thing to do is get your running around done today/early tonight, and hunker down later tonight/tomorrow…To tops things off Arctic air will be flowing into the area as well this will lead to very dangerous wind chills… -15 to -25….. As temps slowly fall throughout the day…
This is a dangerous winter storm…
Also check out these other blog that are covering this winter storm
Tim also covers my Northern FA areas.
Derek covers 6 of my Counties, if I don't cover the nowcasting part he always does...
So check all of our blogs on this storm system..
Also listen to you local news media and the NOAA weather radio for the latest on this dangerous winter storm..
Thursday, December 9, 2010
***Forecasted snowfall amounts***
Here is The Weather Center's snowfall forecast....If the track of the storm changes this will effect the snowfall amounts....If the track is to move more Westward we will have to move the heavier snows Westwards as well...However from thee data I have in front of me this is how it looks right now....
This system will also have strong winds, so blowing and drifting snows will become a problem for the FA... Could see blizzard type condintions for a period.With close to if not whiteout conditions,mainly in the Country areas with little or no cover... Now is the time to start to get ready for what could be the strongest winter storm thus far this year.. Things still can change....Though it appears the GFS/ECMWF/NAM have locked onto about the same track... Though NAM is still a tad South but has been trending more North the past runs....
This system will also have strong winds, so blowing and drifting snows will become a problem for the FA... Could see blizzard type condintions for a period.With close to if not whiteout conditions,mainly in the Country areas with little or no cover... Now is the time to start to get ready for what could be the strongest winter storm thus far this year.. Things still can change....Though it appears the GFS/ECMWF/NAM have locked onto about the same track... Though NAM is still a tad South but has been trending more North the past runs....
***WINTER STORM ***
A major winter storm is set to hit the area...Heavy snows of 12 plus inches seem likely starting Friday night and lasting through Saturday night....All models are in good agreement as of this late afternoon... Will have more details and a snowfall map issued later....This storm will also have very strong winds with it so look for blowing and drifting snow to also be a problem with near to whiteout conditions...
Forecast for Western/Northwestern WI
Forecast problems…Today the light snow, along with rather windy conditions with blowing snow.. Then a change in the Friday night/Saturday forecast time zone…. May be some heavy snows for the FA more on this is a few…Then the Arctic dump through Tuesday night.
***CURRENT CONDITIONS***
At 9 am Temps are in the middle to upper teens across the FA with cloudy skies and some areas of light snow…Winds have been ranging from around 6 MPH up North to 12 to 14 MPH Central and South.. With gusts from 17 to 22 MPH out of the South/Southeast….
***FORECAST DISCUSSION***
This forecast discussion will focus mainly on the possibility of heavy snow for the first part of the upcoming weekend…
1000/1002 MB low pressure is forecasted to track along the US/Canada border today this will drag a warm front through the area then a cold front through the area later today into tonight…. Light snow has already broke out and still thinking 1 to 3 inches of snow is a good bet see map from earlier forecasts….. So today temps will be warmer middle 20s tonight won’t be as cold with lows in the middle teens….
Friday night into Saturday night…
Last night ECMWF and GFS forecasted this storm system to remain well South of the area….GFS has been holding that track since we started to talk about this system…. Well now ECWMF and GFS are more North with the system…Both line up rather well… So now we are going back to the ECMWF model track that it had when we first saw this system appear. There is still some timing issues and strength issues to deal with…So here we go again…
ECMWF has a 1005 MB low pressure system over Western NE…then moves this low East/Northeast towards Southeast WI/Northeast IL… Really doesn’t deepen the low that much until its way East..However a 1041 MB high pressure will try to build into the area so pressure gradients will increase causing for a rather windy day on Saturday…GFS is a little slower with the same track….NAM model is a little South with the model ATTM The SREF model is in line with ECWMF/GFS….. With all that said it does look like we could now see accumulating snows in the FA…Still way to early to pinpoint where and how much… Will wait for more runs to see if the models keep trending North with the winter storm….One thing is a giving Arctic air will blast in behind this system still thinking temps will be in the middle teens below zero with a few spots hitting twenty below Sunday and Monday night… With highs having a hard time getting to zero Sunday and Monday…..
***CURRENT CONDITIONS***
At 9 am Temps are in the middle to upper teens across the FA with cloudy skies and some areas of light snow…Winds have been ranging from around 6 MPH up North to 12 to 14 MPH Central and South.. With gusts from 17 to 22 MPH out of the South/Southeast….
***FORECAST DISCUSSION***
This forecast discussion will focus mainly on the possibility of heavy snow for the first part of the upcoming weekend…
1000/1002 MB low pressure is forecasted to track along the US/Canada border today this will drag a warm front through the area then a cold front through the area later today into tonight…. Light snow has already broke out and still thinking 1 to 3 inches of snow is a good bet see map from earlier forecasts….. So today temps will be warmer middle 20s tonight won’t be as cold with lows in the middle teens….
Friday night into Saturday night…
Last night ECMWF and GFS forecasted this storm system to remain well South of the area….GFS has been holding that track since we started to talk about this system…. Well now ECWMF and GFS are more North with the system…Both line up rather well… So now we are going back to the ECMWF model track that it had when we first saw this system appear. There is still some timing issues and strength issues to deal with…So here we go again…
ECMWF has a 1005 MB low pressure system over Western NE…then moves this low East/Northeast towards Southeast WI/Northeast IL… Really doesn’t deepen the low that much until its way East..However a 1041 MB high pressure will try to build into the area so pressure gradients will increase causing for a rather windy day on Saturday…GFS is a little slower with the same track….NAM model is a little South with the model ATTM The SREF model is in line with ECWMF/GFS….. With all that said it does look like we could now see accumulating snows in the FA…Still way to early to pinpoint where and how much… Will wait for more runs to see if the models keep trending North with the winter storm….One thing is a giving Arctic air will blast in behind this system still thinking temps will be in the middle teens below zero with a few spots hitting twenty below Sunday and Monday night… With highs having a hard time getting to zero Sunday and Monday…..
Wednesday, December 8, 2010
Forecast for Western/Northwestern WI
Forecast problems..Really none to speak of tonight..1 to 3 inches of snow still looks like a good bet… The storm system we have been watch for the weekend will remain well South of the area, however get ready for the coldest air thus far this winter.. More on all of that later….
***CURRENT CONDITIONS***
At 10 PM we find temps ranging from just 1 above to as warm as 10 above….Winds are calm under mostly to cloudy skies….
***FORECAST DISCUSSION & ANALYSIS***
Tonight we find a 1028 MB high pressure system centered over Southwestern WI….We also find a 1008 MB low pressure centered just North of Northwestern MT…..High pressure will ease off to the Southeast throughout the night… Clouds have already became to increase over the FA ahead of a warm front… So temps may drop a few more degrees so still could see some below zero readings yet tonight… Winds will become South still remain on the light side….This will allow for temps temps to warm throughout the night….Tomorrow we see the low pressure system deepen to around 1000 MBS as it moves along the US/Canada border this will drag a warm front through the FA in the morning then a cold front through the FA later in the evening…. Moisture is scant with this system though there will be enough lift and forcing along the frontal boundaries to ensure light snow for my central/Central parts and Northern parts of the FA…Will keep the same thinking in the snowfall see map in the forecast below for details….There could be some freezing drizzle throughout my Southern areas and also in my Southern central areas…… This system pulls to the Northeast rather fast…Main CAA will come riding down about Friday night’s time frame..Still not as cold as what we will be dealing with…..Thursday’s temps lower to middle 20s with lows in the middle teens.. Friday highs upper teens same with Saturday… Lows Friday night lower to middle single digits….
Ok here we go trying to pin down the track of this snow storm…Can say this we won’t see any accumulating snows in my FA..
Lets look at the ECMWF model as this model seems to be having a hard time deciding what to do with the storm system OZ run had the system way South…12Z run now looks like this… Saturday we see a 1005 MB low pressure over South west IA, meantime we see another 1005 MB low pressure over Northern TX..Both lows join up in Western IL then deepens rather fast be Saturday night early Sunday down to around 995 MBS as it pushes through Northern IL..Mean while a strong high pressure system..1040 MBs drops into ND, and SD… Pressure gradients really crank up.. So this would lead to a very windy day on Sunday…. Hold on now lets look at the GFS…
GFS has a 1007 MB low pressure over the TX Panhandle…GFS dives this low into East central TX..Then moves the low Northeast to About Eastern part of TN/Western NC, and deepens the low to around 999 MBS.. From there GFS pushes it into Northern Main and deepens the low to around 970 MBS…. GFS has a much weaker high pressure system building into the area, though still strong 1036 MBS……So if GFS wins out we won’t see the very windy conditions….One thing to note this track is more South and East then it’s 06Z run… So this model is also having some issues that need to get worked out….So seems fit to run with some light snow from late Friday night into Saturday early afternoon…
One thing that does appear likely is the Arctic blast that is set to move in Saturday later afternoon, and lasting right through Tuesday…. Lows well below zero could see some -20°s in our colder spots..Highs will have a hard time making to above zero…
Will not go any further out in the forecast not till I see a better agreement in the long range models…Which hasn’t been there for the last few days….
***CURRENT CONDITIONS***
At 10 PM we find temps ranging from just 1 above to as warm as 10 above….Winds are calm under mostly to cloudy skies….
***FORECAST DISCUSSION & ANALYSIS***
Tonight we find a 1028 MB high pressure system centered over Southwestern WI….We also find a 1008 MB low pressure centered just North of Northwestern MT…..High pressure will ease off to the Southeast throughout the night… Clouds have already became to increase over the FA ahead of a warm front… So temps may drop a few more degrees so still could see some below zero readings yet tonight… Winds will become South still remain on the light side….This will allow for temps temps to warm throughout the night….Tomorrow we see the low pressure system deepen to around 1000 MBS as it moves along the US/Canada border this will drag a warm front through the FA in the morning then a cold front through the FA later in the evening…. Moisture is scant with this system though there will be enough lift and forcing along the frontal boundaries to ensure light snow for my central/Central parts and Northern parts of the FA…Will keep the same thinking in the snowfall see map in the forecast below for details….There could be some freezing drizzle throughout my Southern areas and also in my Southern central areas…… This system pulls to the Northeast rather fast…Main CAA will come riding down about Friday night’s time frame..Still not as cold as what we will be dealing with…..Thursday’s temps lower to middle 20s with lows in the middle teens.. Friday highs upper teens same with Saturday… Lows Friday night lower to middle single digits….
Ok here we go trying to pin down the track of this snow storm…Can say this we won’t see any accumulating snows in my FA..
Lets look at the ECMWF model as this model seems to be having a hard time deciding what to do with the storm system OZ run had the system way South…12Z run now looks like this… Saturday we see a 1005 MB low pressure over South west IA, meantime we see another 1005 MB low pressure over Northern TX..Both lows join up in Western IL then deepens rather fast be Saturday night early Sunday down to around 995 MBS as it pushes through Northern IL..Mean while a strong high pressure system..1040 MBs drops into ND, and SD… Pressure gradients really crank up.. So this would lead to a very windy day on Sunday…. Hold on now lets look at the GFS…
GFS has a 1007 MB low pressure over the TX Panhandle…GFS dives this low into East central TX..Then moves the low Northeast to About Eastern part of TN/Western NC, and deepens the low to around 999 MBS.. From there GFS pushes it into Northern Main and deepens the low to around 970 MBS…. GFS has a much weaker high pressure system building into the area, though still strong 1036 MBS……So if GFS wins out we won’t see the very windy conditions….One thing to note this track is more South and East then it’s 06Z run… So this model is also having some issues that need to get worked out….So seems fit to run with some light snow from late Friday night into Saturday early afternoon…
One thing that does appear likely is the Arctic blast that is set to move in Saturday later afternoon, and lasting right through Tuesday…. Lows well below zero could see some -20°s in our colder spots..Highs will have a hard time making to above zero…
Will not go any further out in the forecast not till I see a better agreement in the long range models…Which hasn’t been there for the last few days….
Tuesday, December 7, 2010
Some weather info..
First off the ongoing forecast stands as is... Thinking has not changed..See below..
Ok lets talk about our snowfall we have had so far...
Oct 27 we picked up 1/2" of snow.
October total snowfall = 1/2"
Nov 13th through the 14th we saw 6.50"of snow(storm total)
Nov 22 we had thundersnow and picked up 1.25"of snow
Nov 23rd we picked up 1/2"of snow.
Nov 30 we saw 2.75"of snow.
Total snowfall for November = 11.00"
So far this leaves us with 11.50" of snow(not counting December but if we did....375"of snow on Dec 4th so if we added that in that would leaves us with 15.25"...
The readings above come from The Weather Center... So we are off to head start on our snowfall...
Also Nov was warmer than normal, though it may not have felt that way but the one week really pushed the temps up so when we avg it all out we were above normal...
December has been colder than normal expect that to keep trending that way into next week... So how cold are we below normal....10 to 15 degrees colder than normal...Temps should remain below normal through 13th. We could see them warm back up to normal from the 15th through the 20th... Precip should avg out close to normal...
Also much of the CONUS has been colder than normal... So will the winter forecast for colder than normal temps and near normal snowfall hold.. Way to early to tell in this part of the game....
Ok lets talk about our snowfall we have had so far...
Oct 27 we picked up 1/2" of snow.
October total snowfall = 1/2"
Nov 13th through the 14th we saw 6.50"of snow(storm total)
Nov 22 we had thundersnow and picked up 1.25"of snow
Nov 23rd we picked up 1/2"of snow.
Nov 30 we saw 2.75"of snow.
Total snowfall for November = 11.00"
So far this leaves us with 11.50" of snow(not counting December but if we did....375"of snow on Dec 4th so if we added that in that would leaves us with 15.25"...
The readings above come from The Weather Center... So we are off to head start on our snowfall...
Also Nov was warmer than normal, though it may not have felt that way but the one week really pushed the temps up so when we avg it all out we were above normal...
December has been colder than normal expect that to keep trending that way into next week... So how cold are we below normal....10 to 15 degrees colder than normal...Temps should remain below normal through 13th. We could see them warm back up to normal from the 15th through the 20th... Precip should avg out close to normal...
Also much of the CONUS has been colder than normal... So will the winter forecast for colder than normal temps and near normal snowfall hold.. Way to early to tell in this part of the game....
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