Short term update....

Thunderstorms over Central MN have been increasing is in coverage and intensity over the last hour…Radar showing storms are moving towards the Northeast…Looking at the vis satellite there is a line of CU that has formed this is where the storms are firing up….Storms have started to form over Southern MN now…If the cap keeps weaken I would suspect the storms would slowly start to form a line along the instability axis within the next hr or so….Once the storms form into a line they will begin to move on a more of a Easterly course..Once the MCS forms then the movement would be East Southeast…Though storms are forming they have been having a hard time holding their own….We shall see how this plays out…..

Short term forecast.

We here at The Weather Center are watching central MN for storm formation which has already started over in Otter Tail County down towards Stearns County… Looking at the latest short term models along with Duluth’s WRF model….shows shear at 23 to 35 KNTS DPNTS have really increased over the last few hrs through much of that areas along with the FA…Storms are forecasted to keep forming as the cap has began to weaken as forecasted…The deep Layer shear is sitting at around 60 KNTS and CAPE is around the 2500 to 3000 J/KG… Storms that are firing in MN will become supercells rather fast…


For the forecast area the storms over in MN shall form into an MCS and this complex of storms are forecasted to work East/Southeast…We may see a severe weather threat in the FA will damaging winds and hail being the main threat….Tornado threat is null in the FA…
Tomorrow’s severe weather threat is looking less likely as the overnight complex of storms may end up pushing the warm front more South…This still remains to be seeing…. However the dynamics aren’t in place on the latest runs…..

Stay tuned to more updates as they may be needed for tonight’s severe weather possibilities.

The froecast for Western/Northwestern WI./Severe weather threat(lack of)

Forecast concerns…. Severe thunderstorm threat right through Wednesday evening….Today there is a few  things working against the chances of severe thunderstorms….Will hash that out in minute or two.


Temps are going to be a real pain in the short and middle term periods… Looks like we will drop to below normal once again by the upcoming weekend….

***CURRENT CONDITIONS***

At 8 AM most stations are reporting cloudy skies…Mostly sunny skies being reported at New Richmond and Oseola…Temps middle to upper 50s cold spot is Superior with 43….DPNTS middle to upper 40s…

Winds East 10 to 13 MPH…Higher up around Lake Superior….



***FORECAST DISCUSSION***

This discussion will mainly be focused on the severe weather threat or the lack of it…..

This morning we find a 992 MB low pressure system sitting over East central SD with a warm front now starting to enter Southwest MN, front reaches through Northwest IA down through Central IA…South of the warm front is where we find the real humid air Dpnts in the middle to upper 60s…..Warm front is forecasted to begin to lift Northwards as we head through the day..Cloud cover should give way to partly to mostly sunny skies… This were the problems start to show up….First off how high to go with temps….so of the computer model guidance’s show temps easy hitting 80 plus today… However I just can’t buy into that.. So will run with lower to middle 70s across much of the area, however I would not be shocked to see a few 80s in my far Southern Counties. Using the Duluth NWS WRF model it shows dpnts soaring into the 60s as we head through today this matches up rather well with the NAM model… Middle level jet is forecasted to increase to 55 to 70 KTS as it moves into the FA…This will aid in the devolvement of rather strong deep layer shear…Looks like some type of boundary is setting up over Central MN into IA…The way it appears right as of now looks to be an instability axis….MLCAPE on the NAM and others are showing 2000 to 4000 J/KG in Southern MN and Northern IA with 1500 to 2500 J/KG CAPE in the FA LI is forecasted to be around -2 to -6…Also with SFC heating forming this aid in thunderstorm formation… However we do have a very strong cap forecasted to crank up this afternoon. 700 MB temps are forecasted to soar into the 10c to 12c with convection temps 85 to 95 throughout the area….So these two things will limited the severe weather threat for today over the FA… As the cap weakens after 7 PM showers and thunderstorms should begin to form/push into the area from MN… Some of these storms may be strong to severe, however I still having a hard time buying into this as of now… We shall see though…..Tomorrow looking to be the warmest day of the week if we can break into some sunshine after last night’s convection…Temps should range from the middle to upper 70s….Showers and thunderstorms will still be in the forecast as the low pressure system is still hanging around could be another chance at severe thunderstorms tomorrow evening if the cap weakens….Thinking is once again this would be an overnight event…Thursday have kept temps in the lower to middle 70s to do all the clouds and showers and thunderstorms around….Friday even lowered temps more in the middle 60s….Cold front is forecasted to move through the area, so will keep showers and storms around…. Saturday looks to be a chilly day we may not even make it out of the 50s…With little warming for Sunday…..Temps still below normal for next Monday.

So to recap if severe thunderstorms do fire it will be during the late evening and overnight hrs of tonight and Wednesday morning, then once again Wednesday evening into early thu morning, However will leave the severe wording out for Wednesday night.

***YOUR FORCAST***

TODAY… Slowly becoming partly to mostly sunny, Highs 70 to 75..Winds South/Southeast 10 to 15 MPH.

TONIGHT… Mostly cloudy a chance of showers and thunderstorms, some storms could be strong to severe…Lows 55 to 60.

TOMORROW… Partly cloudy with a chance of morning showers/storms then a chance of showers and storms in the evening highs 73 to 78.

TOMORROW NIGHT… Cloudy showers and thunderstorms, lows upper 50s to lower 60s.

THRUSDAY… cloudy a chance of showers and thunderstorms highs middle 70s.

THURSDAY NIGHT… Cloudy showers lows in the 50 to 55.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT… showers highs 60 to 65. Lows around 50.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT… a slight chance of showers highs 58 to 62 lows middle 40s…

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY…Dry highs 58 to 65, lows lower 40s.

***LONG TERM FORECAST TUESDAY MAY 17TH THROUGH THUR MAY 26TH.**

Temp should be near normal with precip below normal through this time frame….

No really big heat waves in the forecast… Could see 80s around the May 24th and the 25th time frame…
Also a side note the one picture of the dead tree was not called into the NWS...I had another tree that was very much alive that was also snapped offed,however the pictures did not turn out...Since is was in the little woods of mine.Will try to get a picture of that today...

Lightning clip

Here is the lightning clip...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9uH-oEcAXKs&feature=mfu_in_order&list=UL

NON THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE REPORT...

A line of strong thunderstorms moved through the area this morning…What was strange about this line of storms…The leading edge there was very little in the way of wind…Once the rain started it fell rather hard…I picked up .040”….Winds picked up after the line of thunderstorms moved through….The first and second pictures shows a uprooted pine tree in the City of Rice Lake…18 to 24 inches in diameter…At my home I had a have top of an 8 inch diameter tree snapped off…Though the tree is just about dead still took a good wind to snap it off as the strongest winds were from the East/Southeast so this tree is somewhat protected from the wind from that direction Peak wind gust was recorded @ 37.3 MPH…Time is estimated  10:20 AM – 10:30 AM…. The NWS is classifying the damage was non thunderstorm wind damage though it is related to the storms...I would have to agree with how there writing all the reports up in their LSR... as Non thunderstorm wind damage..There has been many other reports of trees downed through out the area.All the way from Superior/Ashland down into through EAU County and points South..Now the pictures.

The cold forecast for Western/Northwestern WI

Hope everyone is enjoying this cold weather… it will be around for sometime….We will have a few warm days coming up later upcoming work week, however temps will average below normal for at least the next 2 weeks…More on that later…. This morning we did see snow that will keep going off and on right through Monday….Still some snow chances throughout the forecast cycle and even in the long term preiod.


***CURRENT CONDITIONS***
As of 1 PM all station are reporting cloudy skies.... Temps are in the middle 30s....Winds range from 14 to 22 MPH with gusts up to 30 MPH at some of the stations....
***FORECAST DISCUSSION***

Strong area of low pressure is forecasted to lift into Canada….Which is centered over far Northern MN as of this writing…Shows up rather well on the satellite imagery… CAA well under way… Winds will still be a problem today and into the early evening hrs…. Have really took a bite out of the temps for today will cut them into the upper 30s to lower 40s…. Will leave lows for tonight stand… Have cut highs on Monday also will run with lower to middle 40s,left low alone….Have cut highs on Tuesday to reflect lower to middle 50s ….Did change other thing around in the forecast also……

System still close to us on Monday to keep snow showers alive, could see some rain mixing in..Skies should become partly cloudy by time we head into the later afternoon/early evening….A break in the action for Tuesday…Wednesday things get tricky..Model disagreements showing up…. GFS has us somewhat warm with a chance of thunderstorms, meanwhile ECWMF keep us in the cooler with just rain for Wednesday night into Thursday …So will blend the two together..Will run with temps in the upper 50s for Wed and Thur with lows in the lower to middle 40s….System moves out of the area setting the stages for a rather nice Friday with temps in the lower to middle 60s….Upcoming weekend looks kind of interesting…Looks like we may be dealing with some severe thunderstorms?? It way too early to say this for sure, but the possibilities are there…..

So overall temps will slowly warm to the middle 60s by the end of the short/middle term forecast cycle, however will still average out below normal…

***LONG TERM FORECAST SUNDAY MAY 8TH THROUGH TUESDAY MAY 17TH ***

Looks like a wet and cold pattern still in place……..

Sun the 8th dry highs 55 to 60 lows lower to middle 40s….

Mon the 9th dry highs 50 to 55 lows lower 40s

Tues the 10th showers and thunderstorms possible highs 50 to 55 lows in the 40s

Wed the 11th showers cooler 45 to 50 lows in the 30s, some rain could mix with snow in the overnight hrs.

Thur the 12th rain/snow showers in the early morning hrs than dry highs 50 to 55 lows in the 40s.

Friday the 13th small chance of rain highs 55 to 60 lows in the 40s.

Sat the 14th… A chance of showers/maybe a thunderstorm…. Highs 55 to 60 lows in the 40s.

Sun the 15th should be dry…Highs 55 to 60 lows in the 40s.

Mon the 16th dry highs 55 to 60 lows in the 40s

Tue the the 17 chance of rain…Highs 50 to 55… Rain snow mixed Tue night with lows in the 30.

Disclaimer…


The long term forecast is out there in time..So things can change…..

***YOUR SHORT/MIDDLE TERM FORECAST****

REST OF TODAY….Cold with snow showers…Highs middle 30s to lower 40s… Winds West 15 to 20 MPH with gust up to 30 MPH.

TONIGHT…. Cloudy with snow showers… Lows in the 28 to 32 Winds 10 to 20 MPH with gust up to 25 MPH becoming lighter 5 to 10 MPH out of the Northwest.

MONDAY…. Slight chance of snow showers before noon… Highs 40 to 45…

MONDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy cold lows 25 to 30

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY….. Partly cloudy highs 50 to 55 then 55 to 60 on Wednesday lows in the upper 30s on Tuesday night.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT… Showers and thunderstorms lows in middle 40s.

THURSDAY… Showers and, a possible thunderstorms highs 55 to 60.

THURSDAY NIGHT… slight chance of showers….Slight chance of a few snow showers lows in the 30s…

FRIDAY.. Partly cloudy, warmer highs 60 to 65. Lows middle 40s

SATURDAY…. Showers and thunderstorms highs 60 to 65 lows in the middle 40s…

The year without spring/snow video

The year without spring is what everyone is calling this... Well I now have to agree....Enjoy the cold as the temps will average much below normal for the next two weeks at least....Here is the snow video.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GbBJ3UWaAm8