Forecast...Possible accumulating snows..Maybe...

Forecast headaches...Short term none...Long term accumulating snows for our WI Counties Tuesday through Wednesday night...More on that later...Temps will also become a problem,along with winds...
Current Conditions....
Temps are mainly in the upper teens to lower 20s across my MN zones,meanwhile temps in my WI zones are in the middle to upper 20s at this hour....Reporting stations are coming in with cloudy skies...Radar showing a band of light snow/flurries across Barron,Burnett,Sawyer,and Washburn Counties....Looking out my office window here in Rice Lake,we have light snow falling and a dusting of snow...
SFC Analyses...
We find a strong area of low pressure in Southern IL..Pressure reading on this low is down to around 996 MBS...We see a trof reaching back into our Southern Zones from said low,along with a weak area of low pressure over far ND...
Today through Monday night...
Low pressure over IL is forecasted to move Northeast into Central IN by 18z today,meanwhile weak trof will move through our FA...By 0z Monday the low over IN will move into Northeast IN and deepen to around 989 MBS.Then push into far Northeast MI by 12z Monday...by this time most of the FA will see a break in the light snow/flurries...However in our snow belts of WI will have to keep chances of snow alive as cold air flows over Lake Superior...Really don't see any problems with attm,just light snow/flurries....
Tuesday through Wednesday night...
Here is were the major headaches start....What model to believe in...GFS still has a 992 MB over Canada moving towards the Northern area of MN...This will drag a cold front through the area around the Tuesday night/Wednesdays time frame....Now lets look at the ECMWF model....Here we see a low pressure of 996 MBS forming over KS..This model pushes the low into Southwestern WI than into Central MI....GEM seems to agree with ECWMF on this out come...Yesterday I threw out these models and went with GFS...Today I will run with ECWMF and blend GFS into it...So with that said...A good deal of our WI zones could see accumulating snow through this time frame.If and only if this models pan out.....I'm still on the edge of my seat about this change...All said models have been holding their own for the most part..Though did notice GFS was slowly coming online with the ECWMF...We shall see how this will all play out....One thing that is for sure on all the model Med and Long range is that temps will go down...Another shot of Arctic air on it's way for this time frame and through the end of the work week....Winds will be a problem with either solution....As pressure gradients increases behind the cold front...I will be updating this forecast later today...I see no other choice in this attm...

Forecasted snowfall amounts

This will all depend on the track of the storm system into the OH Valley....Low pressure sliding off to our Southwest will bring Western and Northwest their snowfall,mean while said low will push into MO and phase with the low moving Northeast into the OH Valley this will cause Southern WI their snowfall...See above map...

Forecast...

Side note this forecast was issued @ 5 am this morning...So the current conditions will be off!!
Also radar is showing snow increasing in coverage arcoss MN @ 7:51 am this morning....


Forecast problems short term none...Long term temps,and precip chances...

Current Conditions...
Temps are uniformed across the FA this morning....Mainly in the middle to upper teens...Skies in MN for the most part are mostly cloudy while in WI skies are clear to partly cloudy.IR satellite concurs....Winds rather light at this hour..Radar is showing an area of light snow up in the Itasca and Cass Counties..DBZ is null with this area,so thinking is it's not reaching the ground...Radar trends have this areas dissipating as it was moving East Northeast...Taking a fast look at the regional radars..We find not much out there at this hour...
SFC Analysis...
This morning's SFC map shows an area of week low pressure over Far Western MN...MBS around 1012...This low is forecasted to move Southeast into South Central MN around 18z today...By 00z Sunday the low should be just South of the Twin Cities area..By 06z Sunday said low is forecasted to drop into MO..At the same time we find another weaker short wave dropping out of Canada both of these features will drag a cold front through the area..
Today through Sunday night...
Clouds will be on the increase for those areas currently under partly to clear skies...Low pressure will slide off to our Southwest ...Moisture is null for this system,however some lift showing up in our Southern zones...These areas have the best chance at seeing some light snow...I'm not to trilled about accumulations...If I was to hedge a guess less than 1/2 inch...However will not add that into the forecast with dry air over head,as what little moisture around will go into getting the air saturated...Will keep snow going through Sunday do to the mass of system taking shape to our South/Southeast...This system could push some wrap around snow into the area,highly unlikely attm,however we do see some weak systems getting pushed South into our area before they wrap up with the upper level,and SFC low in the OH Valley area....
Sunday through Monday night...
Will have to keep snow alive over our far Northern areas of WI do to some light LES with winds flowing over the lake...I also have kept some snow going over far Northeastern MN as a weak system will be close to this area..Other than that have went with partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies across the remainder of the FA....
Tuesday through Wednesday night...
Main problems creep up big time in this time frame...
Computer models showing a 1000 MB low pressure over Northern Alberta Canada on Monday...This low is forecasted to move almost do East by 12z Tuesday,and deepen to around 992..By 12z Wednesday we find the low sitting just North of the FA in Southern Canada...This low pressure will drag a cold front into and through the area....Tuesday SFC temps would show mainly snow across the area,However at the 925 MB height we see a warm push of air 0c..This will aid in the production of a wintry mix across much of the FA..Sleet/freezing rain/snow....In our Central and Southern zones we may only find rain and snow...This could just be all rain by afternoon,before mixing and changing to all snow Tuesday night..Will keep the wintry mix going in the Northern areas of MN,and WI until the cold front pushes through these areas.Pressure gradients increases as this system pulls away from the area..So Wednesday late afternoon and maybe into Thursday winds could also become a problem....Should see all snow on Wednesday into Wednesday night...Depending on how fast this system moves through and how much moisture it can retain or tap..This could be our best shot at seeing some accumulations snows through out the FA...This will have to watched through the weekend....I won't even take a stab at how much snow might fall,as there are to many uncertainness with the models as of right now...One thing is common on the models is colder air will pour into the area for the remainder of the work week..
Longer term(Dec 7 through Dec 15)
Still looks like no big snow storms through this time frame as the main Southern jet remains to the South...Keeping all of the storms to our South and East...Thanks to the same old pesky Northwest flow that has been camping here since October..We will have a shot at some snow through out this time frame...As systems move down into the area from the Northwest...
So to sum it all up below norms in the temps and precip dept.

Venus and Jupiter pictures

Venus and Jupiter have been shinning in the Southwestern sky for the past week or so..This show will only ger better has we head into Dec...Here are some pictures I took this evening/tonight..

Severe Thunderstorm days to effect Barron County

Severe thunderstorms days for Barron County,WI.
These severe thunderstorms reports are from the following...Myself,and my chase team..As there where days when severe storms hit the County while I was at work...Or I was out of the area storm chasing...
Barron County had 6 severe thunderstorms that were reported..
First one happened on 05/28/08
The Southern parts of Barron County had a HP supercell roll through...This was tornado warned..However I did not see any funnels or tornadoes..This storm did produce straight line wind damage to Prairie Farm and into Dallas and points South of said line....Lots trees were downed along with a barn and a shed....A trailer camper was over turned ..Some houses did have roof damage from trees on top of them...Not only was damaging winds a factor,this storm also produce hail up to the .075 in size,also very heavy rainfall from this cell....
The second severe thunderstorm day came on 06/08/08
First off we need to talk about a wind shift line that caused many reports of funnels clouds in the late afternoon...I was unlucky enough to see one of these funnels...However what I did see was lots of scud clouds being sucked up into the base of these LP storms...So I sure some of this activity was reported as funnel clouds..One spotter was able to get pictures of the funnel,along with other folks..I was able to see some of the pictures and did confirm it was a funnel cloud....Shortly after this wind shift line moved out of Barron County..More storms where forming on the Southwest side of the County, in the early evening hours... These storms raced Northeast to effect a good deal of the area,These storms did produce hail up to the size of .088...
The next round of severe thunderstorms didn't come until 07/19/08
The main areas that were effected was the Southern parts of Barron County....Damaging winds were the main factor with this cell.Winds up to 55 KNTS..Along with some small hail,and heavy rainfall..
Than on 07/28/08. More severe thunderstorm rolled through the County...
These storms were mainly hailers...Producing hail up to .088...
On 08/03/08 one of the worst storms to effect Northern parts of Barron County...
A line of severe thunderstorm smashed into Northern Barron County in the late afternoon...This storm became stronger after it move East of Cumberland about 4 to 5 miles..This storm downed lots of trees and power lines..Most of the damage was along HWY 48 and points to the North....There was some damage South of this line...A few tress downed and one roof on a house destroyed about one mile South of Rice Lake..Some people were trying to tell it was a tornado,however they never saw it...I would not be shocked if there were some gustnadoes here and there...However what I saw all lined up to be straight line winds,along with some down burst winds,that did flatten part of a corn field not to far from my place...
Last but not least, a severe thunderstorm moved through the Northern parts of Barron County on 09/26/08.
This storm moved through around 10 pm or so..The main factor with this storm was damaging winds,that did down a few trees.
Again this report is from what I or my chase team has saw...They may have been some storms we missed...Or not.....
As far as the total thunderstorm days for Barron County...From April through Nov...
April saw 3 thunderstorm days some with thundersnow....
May also saw 3 thunderstorm days...
June saw 13 thunderstorm days...
July saw 5 thunderstorm days..
August saw 6 thunderstorm days...
September saw 5 thunderstorm days...
October saw.1 thunderstorm days...
Nov..So far this month we saw one thunderstorm day...With the month just about gone I think it will be save to say that will be it...
So the total as of right now stands at 37 thunderstorms days....

Forecast and some interseting info from Polk County,WI

Forecast headaches...Light wintry mix,light snow,and last but surely not least temps....
Current Conditions...
Temps starting rather warm this morning,from the upper 20s to lower 30s...Looking at the SFC OBS we find no reports of wintry precip,however the radar is showing some light precip in far Northern ST.Louis County along with Hubbard,and Wadena Counties....Winds have been rather gusty through the over night hours...This morning I see winds are still in the 5 to 10 MPH range with a few higher gusts.....
SFC Analysis....
1034 MB high pressure over WV has help pump warmer air into the area over night..We find a cold front reaching from 1000 MB low pressure over the Northern parts of Saskatchewan Canada,down to a 1013 MB low pressure over Eastern WY..Mean while there is yet another low pressure over Southeast NE the reading on this low is around 1022 MB...
Today through Tuesday...
Cold front is forecasted to move into the Eastern Dakotas by 12z.Then into Central parts of our FA by 18 Z today..As this does the low pressure over NE is forecasted to move East into IA around 00z Monday...By 06z Monday said low is forecasted to move into Northeast IA/Northwest IL...Said cold front and low pressure will keep the chances of snow alive...For the most part little or no accumulations are forecasted...However am going to have to watch my far Southern zones of WI as the low is forecasted to deepen later tonight...This area may see some light accumulations...Best guess would say less that an inch to be on the safe side...Another cold front moves into far Northern MN by 12Z Monday and appears to wash out..However Low pressure over Eastern MI shall spin a trof through parts of my far Northern WI zones..So here I have elected to keep light snow/flurries alive in said area......I do have mostly cloudy skies in the forecast,however they may be a shot at some sun in my Southern zones of MN,and WI...If this doe come into play we could see mixing down from the 925 to 850 MB in return this would be I will need to bump temps up even more in these areas..Will watch it through the morning and adjust temp as needed....
The rest of the short week into the long Thanksgiving holiday...
High pressure will control our weather through this time frame and right through the upcoming weekend...Temps will start off below norms and shoot to above norms...Temps will remain rather warm...Temps shouldn't get to out of hand as the main flow become blocked during this time frame.Still middle to upper 30s look good..Sure would not be shocked to see some lower 40s on Thanksgiving day....So dry and quiet weather on the docket....
Longer term....( DEC 1 through DEC 9)
Long range models still talking about colder air returning to the FA..If this does indeed happen it cold be the coldest air thus far this season.850 MB temps start off at -8c and drop to -20 through much of this week...By 00z 12/06 850 MB temps dive to around -24c..Some warming noted by 12z 12/07 when 850 temps reach for -4 or so...Before cooling back off to around -8c to -16C for the rest of the time frame...As far as precip goes....Still no big storm systems in the foreseeable future...Nevertheless we still see on the long range models some clipper like systems to move into the area during this time frame...Trying to nail down what days/nights this would happen is out of the question this far out...
Severe thunderstorms days in Polk County,WI
From a friend of mine in Polk County,WI...Check out Derek's blog for the info...The info is from what he saw...So with that said there may have been other severe thunderstorms that has effected Polk County that didn't effect his area,nevertheless still cool info from his area....Derek did give me an idea after I read his post...I will be posting about severe thunderstorms that effected Barron County...These reports will be what I have seen or what my chase team/reporters have reported to me....Hope to have that out sometime today....

The forecast diss.

Forecast problems...Light snow/flurries than wintry mix than light snow/flurries...Temps...
Current Conditions....
Most of our MN and WI stations reporting clear to party cloudy skies this morning....Some of our far Southern areas of MN,WI showing cloudy skies...Satellite is showing this well....Radar is showing an area of light snow moving into Western WI ..Temps at this hour range from the lower single digits to the middle teens...Colder readings found in the Northern part of MN....
Today through tonight....
Have decided to add in some light snow/flurries to our far Southern FA this morning do to radar trends.Not looking for any accumulations...I did run with partly cloudy skies for the rest of the FA..I do agree with the models and their RH output....1012 MB low pressure/shortwave now over SD is forecasted to move southeast and dissipates...This shall push the light snow/flurries into parts of our Southern areas early this morning....Tonight cold front starts to push towards the area...Will keep with the previous forecast of a wintry mix starting later tonight..SFC temps will be cold enough for snow,however the upper level temps do show signs of a wintry mix as WAA kicks in upstairs..
Sunday through Monday...
Will start the day with a wintry mix then change it over to light snow/flurries by mid to late morning as low pressure moves East up in Canada,said low is forecasted to drag a cold front through the area..Moisture is rather limited so not forecasting any accumulations ATTM...Winds become more Westerly at the SFC so will keep temps about the same as the over night shift had them...
Monday night through Monday night...
Upper level low pressure is forecasted to come on stage late Monday night and work it's way through the area on Monday...Will keep the snow chance alive in most areas,here again not excepting much snow from this system...We will have to watch for the possibility of LES on Monday as cold Northwest flows over the warm waters of Lake Superior..ATTM is does not look like the best set up as we have seen with the last few systems over the past week...
Tuesday through Thanksgiving...
1027 MB high pressure builds into the area and sets up camp over the FA..High builds to around 1032 as it settles in on Tuesday afternoon and night....Temps during this time from shall reach into the 30s I would not be shocked to see some lower 40s reported in our far Southern areas of MN...So a warm dry week ahead for us...
Looking into the longer term...(Nov 30 th through Dec8 th)
The long range models mainly GFS Showing a big cool down for the first part of DEC...H8 Temps drop to a range of -16 to -20 .As the pesky Northwest flow regains it's hold on the area once again..This remains to been seen.. As we keep in the Northwest flow no big snow storms in the foreseeable forecast....
Ice is forming on area lakes...
The ice may not be safe just yet...With warmer temps forecasted for much of next week..If one tries to go ice fishing use caution...I would highly recommend everyone to stay off the ice...Some reports of 1 to 2 inches of ice have been coming in....Make sure to tell your kids to stay clear from the new formed ice on pounds and lakes.......
Also deer hunting as starting in WI today...Hunters make sure you know what you are shooting at...Also do not shoot across road ways or towards houses and cabins...Have a safe hunting season..Good luck at getting that big buck!