Forecast(MY AFD)

Forecast problems...Major winter storm to our South...Winds....Temps....
CURRENT CONDITIONS.....
Temps this morning starting out rather cool middle 20s for the most part,Lower 30s through out Northern MN were clouds held longer,For the most part still cloudy over in parts of my MN FA...While my WI FA is mainly clear...Winds are light out of the w/NW....

SFC ANALYSIS......

This morning's weather stars a 1018 MB high pressure sitting over the FA.This has allowed for skies to clear out nicely for most of the FA,however satellite imagery is showing clouds starting to stream in from the SW.We also find the co star 989 MB low pressure over Eastern CO/Western KS...This low will become the star today...We also find an areas of 1030 MB Arctic high pressure in Northern parts of Saskatchewan Canada...By now you are all saying fine and dandy,what does that all mean for us...Well I will tell you...

TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.....

Main focus will be on the major winter storm By 18z today 996 MB low pressure is forecasted to move into Western parts of KS Low is forecasted to move into Northern MO/Southern IA by 12z Sun..By 12z Mon low is forecasted to be into NE OH....
For the most part models are agreeing in this storm track..Biggest question I had was how far North to bring the snow...My thinking is as of now will bring light snows/flurries into my WI areas through out this period as the low lifts Northeast...Main area to see snow would be in my Southern zones....Barron,Rusk,and Sawyer Counties....Winds will be on the increase during this time frame as pressure gradients crank up between the low to our South/Southeast and Arctic high pressure to our North/Northwest.....Strongest winds should be found over my WI FA...Winds at times could gust to near 30 MPH.....Once said low moves out of the area Arctic high pressure builds in....Keep below norms in the temp dept for the start of the new work week...

TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY....

Really not to much to talk about in this time frame as high pressure will be camping out...Temps do slowly warm back to norms as we head through the work week,and into the weekend...I do have temps in the lower 40s for the weekend that may be on the cool side...Will change them if needed in tomorrow's forecast.....

LONGER TERM...TUESDAY 14 THROUGH MONDAY 20....

We start this period with temps around norms...Nice warm up kick in around Wed the 15 ..Temps could sore into the middle 50s..As an area of low pressure moves into Canada form the high plains..This will draw warm air into the area...We have a shot at 60s in our Southern,and Central areas....50s up North...Dewpoint sore into the upper 40s to around 50..on Southerly winds..Also models showing another low pressure forming in NE and Moving Northeast towards SE WI this will help to bring warm and humid air into parts of the FA..If this all pans out we may very well be dealing with our first bout of severe thunderstorms some where close to home..Temps still look to warm after the passage of the storm system...So with any luck spring will be here to stay.Back to this possible severe weather event...It is to far out to really forecast this,however I'm going to give it a shot...
We do see dewpoints increase to the upper 40s to lower 50s Wed/Thru time frame PWS increase to and to around an inch through out my Central and Southern zones of MN and all of my WI zones...LIS are forecasted to be from 0 to -2 or so Winds at the SFC forecasted to out of the South and than out of the SW from the SCF to 850 MB level 0-70 MB AGL CAPE is forecasted to run around 500 to 700 J/KG Some concerns that could hamper this possible severe weather event..Little in a way of CAP and CIN...This may very well lead to small storms taken the show before prime time heating of the day takes place.If that happens there will to much cloud cover around to get good SFC heating cranking up...Again this is so far out there it is nearly impossible to forecast..However it does have our eye on it....We shall see....

Forecast

Forecast problems...Snowstorm to our South and below norm temps through out much of the forecast cycle...Then above norm temps for a period in the longer term...

CURRENT CONDITIONS....

Temps in the lower to middle 30s are greeting early morning risers...All of our area is reporting Cloudy skies at this hour,Looking at the satellite image this confirms this...We do see a clearing trend in MN per SFC OBS and satellite..So except that to move in over the next few hours....

SFC ANALYSIS....

High pressure though a bit weak is centered over Western MN this morning...A storm system centered over South/Southeastern IN ...Meanwhile we see our next trouble maker now pushing into the Rockies....

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.....

High pressure will be control of our weather through this time frame...Clouds that have reblanket the area over night show begin to scour out through out the morning...Skies shall become partly cloudy as the 850-500 MB REL HUM drops to 30% to 40%..My far Northern areas may see more clouds as REL HUM still holding around 60 to 70% that would suggest mostly cloudy wording up there.Plus side to the clouds last night they helped keep temps in the upper 20s to lower 30s,warmer than what was forecasted,however that won't help us today as North/Northwest winds blowing across a rather deep snow up stream will keep us cooler than what may have been...I feel temps in the lower 40s up North..Middle 40s elsewhere's.May see some upper 40s across the Southern FA..Tonight high pressure still over head...Skies should still remain partly cloudy..Low shall fall back into the middle 20s Central Southern areas upper 20s shall prevail....Up North lower 20s look great..Saturday Lower 40s for the Northern and Central areas,while middle 40s far Southern areas,under partly sunny skies....

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.....

We will see a storm system getting it act going over the four corners region...By 12z Saturday 992 MB low is forecasted to move into Eastern CO/Western KS...By 00z Sunday said low is forecasted to be around Central KS.This low will also shoot out a trof through NE up into SW WI......Low is forecasted to move into Northern MO then through Central IL then onto Central IN...So what does this all mean for the FA....Well our far Southern zones have the best chance at seeing accumulating snow..Areas South of Eau Claire...Meanwhile my Central and Northern areas should see some light snow/flurries....Should not see any snowfall amounts in these areas...Meantime a 1038 Arctic high pressure will be building into the area so winds will become a problem as pressure gradients crank up..Winds will have a impact on the whole FA,could see winds gusts up to 30 to 35 MPH at times on Sunday ....Sat night Lows in the middle 20s North and Central while our Southern areas basking in the upper 20s...All areas should be locked under cloudy skies...Sunday will bring in snow through the FA...See above...High on Sunday middle 30s across the entire forecast area...Lows Sunday night dip into the middle 20s South,with lower 20s Central and North....Monday still kept snow chances alive for all areas...I still may pull that from the Central and Northern areas later,will wait for a few more runs to decide that....Temps in the middle to upper 30s shall rule through the whole FA...Lows Monday night drop into the Middle teens North to upper teens to lower 20s Central,last but not lest Middle 20s Southern areas....

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
..
Arctic high pressure will modify by the end of this period,See right above for low for Monday night.....
Tuesday we only warm into the Lower 40s North and Central ..Middle 40s South...Low on Tuesday night lower 20s North and Central with middle 20s South....Wed temps take a hike in the right direction...High will range from the Middle 40s North to the middle to upper 40s Central...Upper 40s South...May see a few lowers 50s in the Southern areas...Will all be depend on snow cover..Low through this time frame will range form the lower to middle 20s North...Middle to upper 20s South...

LONGER TERM...FRIDAY 10 THROUGH SUN 19.........

We see yet another storm system moving out of the 4 corners area,once again this system looks like it will remain South of the area..Highs on Friday should be around the lower to middle 40s....
Highs for the weekend look to be warm with 40s and 50s..How long will that last? lets find out shall we....By the 13th, models showing temps heading for the 60s maybe a few 70s close by..So is this the start of spring? well not really,however temps should be at or above norms through out much of this time frame,before we cool back off to below norms by the end of this time frame....What is interesting if models are right this far out we may be dealing with some severe weather on Wed the 16 th...That remains to be seen...Note...This far out it is really hard to forecast severe thunderstorms,heck just even hard to forecast any weather that far out...Though it will be something we will watch over the next week....

Pictures/update on yesterdays very small problem

With that very small probelm going on yesterday, I forgot to post these pictures of yesterday's snow fall...Picture were taking around the 9 AM hour...At that time we had 1.50 inches..Hard to tell in the pictures..I was going to take a picture of the rule again,but forgot about it until now...To late now.We ended up with 1.75 inches of snow.Some of the snow flakes were as big a half dollars..As always click on the picture to see a bigger one....

Update on small problem seems like it has been taking care of,I did unban her,but she never went after me..So I think she has learned not to mess with my blog...I will be deleting all that crap....By now everyone knows how crazy she is..With all the emails comming in today everyone sure does agree...Thanks much really means a lot to me..

Updated forecast

Forecast right on target so really no need to change things...For longer term forecast,see the forecast that was issued April 1st...That also seems on traget attm....

Forecast + some info on yesterday's problem!

Forecast is for the most part cut and dry...Chances of snow creep back into the forecast for Saturday through Monday... Yesterday's problem is address in the long term forecast..So no long term forecast today.....

CURRENT CONDITIONS.....

Temps are starting this morning in the upper 20s to near 32...Winds are rather light for the most part from the West Southwest though some stations reporting wind gust from 10 to 20 MPH as of 6 AM..Skies range from partly cloudy to cloudy across the area this morning

SFC ANALYSIS......

This morning pesky low pressure is now just North of lake Superior...High pressure system building into the area from the ND/SD.

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.....

Weak area of high pressure is forecasted to build into the area....This will slowly allow for skies to become partly cloudy..Satellite showing areas of clear skies in parts of WI and MN...However do see some clouds trying to work Southward,and area of clouds trying to work Northwards out of IA..Looking at the 850-500 MBHUM charts we do see REL HUM dropping to around 30 to 40% through out Much of my WI zones so partly cloudy seems to way be the way to run ..Far NW WI REL HUM still up around the 60 to 70 % at 12z today so mostly cloudy skies are in the forecast for that area...Temps today will still be held at bay as West Northwest flow keeps diving South...So highs in the upper 30s North to around 40 South look to be passable.....Tonight partly to mostly cloudy skies shall rule much of the area as we see per 850-500 MBHUN charts REL HUM increase to 60 % in my Southern WI zones and still hang in the 65 % to 75 % in my Northern zones....Lows tonight will be colder than they were Wednesday night....Should see upper teens North to lower 20s Central maybe middle 20s far Southern areas...Friday through Saturday look for partly skies and high temps from the lower 40s North to middle 40s Central and South...Lows in the middle 20s...So below norm temps keep everyone wondering were spring is...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT....

Here is when things get a little tricky,and a little interesting...ECMWF/GFS not seeing eye to eye on this next storm system just yet...Lets talk about old reliable...ECMWF...This model show a piece of energy digging into the OK/TX panhandle areas,then it spins up a 989 MB low pressure in said areas..This low is forecasted to eject into Central KS late Sat night/early Sun morning hours...said low then tracks to the East/slightly NE into Eastern IL/Western IN..Low deepens to around 997 MBS as it makes it's trip across said areas...Meanwhile we see a 1038/1039 MB high pressure building Southward out of Canada into the Eastern Rockies...Hence the further Southern track of this system..That's if it plays out that way...Ok lets break down the GFS and see what he's saying about this....Sat 12 UTC GFS has a 1000 MB low over SW KS/OK/TX panhandle....By 18 UTC low is forecasted to be in South Central KS..By 00 UTC Sun..Said low is forecasted to be around Eastern KS from there the lows track through Northern MO into Central IN by 18 UTC SUN...GFS still keep this low at the 1000 MB level until Sun night when GFS deepens low to around 996 MBs...So track is close to the ECMWF,however the strength is weaker...I have been seeing a trend to the South with models over the last two days..So with that thinking....Far Southern zones will have the best chance at seeing precip from this system,however models keep trending in South..My Southern zones may every well end up high and dry.....However at the same time we do see a shortwave dropping South as of right not I'm not to trilled about moisture return as the System down South should keep moisture tied up there...This shortwave really has not much of it's own to work with...Still for now will have to keep precip going,however that may be pulled in later forecasts or updates....Small chance of snow moves in for Sat night and holds through Monday.....
Sat night lows should reach the middle 20s once again...Highs on Sunday will be cooler with middle 30s across much of the FA,a few upper 30s may pop up in my Southern zones....Sun night lows fall back into the middle 20s,high still cold for Mon ...Middle 30s North to upper 30s South.....Lows Mon night fall into the lower 20s South and Central to as cold as the upper teens North....

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY....

High pressure builds back into the are so will run with Mostly sunny skies through this time frame...Temps on Tue should be in the lower 40s....Lows Tue night drop back into the middle 20s South and Central while lower 20s seem like a great bet North...Wednesday highs scoot up to the upper 40s Central with a chance at a few 50s in my Southern FA..North parts of the FA lower to middle 40 should work out ok.....

LONGER TERM.....

There will not be a long term forecast this time as you may have notice from yesterday on my CBOX.There is one little problem I need to take care of.I have left her comments on my CBOX just to show everyone how crazy this person is.....Sorry about not having a long term forecast,however to keep this blog of mine going, this problem is going to have to dealt with! Rest assure I will be taking whatever actions I need to.... Thanks to all my readers for sending me emails and the support and your backing...I never knew I had over 50 people reading of this blog...Last count on the email I got was at 51...I will reply to each and everyone of you over the next few hours...Once again Thanks everyone !

Updated forecast...

Update....A call into our Weather observers across Southern Barron,Polk,and Rusk Counties show them areas have picked up around 1/2 inch of snow to as much a 3/4 inches of snow(that is snowfall totals from last night and this morning)....Call into our Weather observers across Central parts of said Counties...Shows 3/4 of an inch of snow to around an inch....Call into our Northern Weather observers in said Counties show this is where the highest totals are...Any where from 1 inch to almost 2.50 inches of snow..Here at the Weather center we have picked up 1.50 inches as of 9 am this morning.....Again this is snowfall totals from last night into this morning...Radar trends are showing the snow becoming lighter and decreasing in coverage...So little in away of accumulations are forecasted...See forecast below for details,however one can drop Barron,Polk and Rusk Counties from the excepted snows..Them areas should not see much more and SFC temps starting to warm so should see some misty conditions with just flurries in them Counties...Will still run with the same thinking for the Counties to the North of Barron,Polk,and Rusk....Radar trend in the Counties to our North show more wrap around snow moving into them areas....This will hold for the next few hours up there.....Meanwhile our Counties of Barron,Polk,and Rusk Counties light snow/flurries/mist will be ending in the next hour or two,might be as long as 3 hours...However once again not excepting much more in them areas....We will get out and see how much more snow as falling here at the Weather Center after our last check at 9 AM....
So we are happy with how this turned out....FCST right on target.....
Forecasters Paul/Dirk.....

Forecast..Still below norm temps

Forecast problems..Short term...Rain/snow chances..Middle term...Rain/snow chances and temps....Long term..Same old thing...Rain/snow chances and temps...

CURRENT CONDITIONS.....

Temps this morning starting of in the upper 20s to near 32 most areas...Radar still showing light snow through out the area.Nothing to get up in arms about..See below.Wind are rather light at this hour..Looking up stream we do find windy conditions,and these are set to move into the FA...

SFC ANALYSIS.....

This morning's weather map we find a strong 992 MB low pressure just North of the Twin Cities metro area...A occluded front sits over far Northern WI,than reaches back to the low pressure are...Meanwhile cold front that rapidly pushed through the area is now over Eastern IN and extends to the South through Far Eastern MS/Far Western AL...Another storm system sitting over WY.CO..Also we see a 997 MB low pressure over the Golf of Alaska.........

TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.....

Low pressure will keep moving North to about the Northeast tip of MN by 18z...This will keep light snows for the most part,with a small chance of some light rain going through this morning...This should taper off as we head through the morning early afternoon...May see another 1/2 of snow from a line from Northern Barron,Polk,and Rusk Counties.. Where call to our weather observers this morning have show this is where 1/4 to half inch have already falling...Call to our Central,and Southern weather observers in said Counties above show little in the way of snow,Trace for most part to less than a 1/4 inch a radar confirms this...Better chance of seeing an inch or so will be found a line from Webster to Trego over Towards Hayward then over to Park Falls. Winds won't die off at all today Pressure tends showing we go from -.3 MB at 0900 UTC to close to +1 MB by 1800 UTC....This should keep winds ranging from 10 to 20 MPH with higher gust today...Temps today will range from the middle 30 North to upper 30s South...For tonight low pulls far enough way and takes the Flurries with it..Still will have to run with cloudy to mostly cloudy as humidity still running around 70 to 90% through out much of the FA at the 700 MB level.....Lows tonight should range from the lower 20s North to around the middle 20s South....

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY....

1016 High pressure builds into the area early Thur Morning..This should set us up with a rather peaceful day..Winds will be lighter,Skies are forecasted to be partly cloudy through the FA highs on your second day of Apr will bounce back into the upper 30 North to low 40s South,...THUR night...Strong 992 MB storm system over the TN area may kick in some clouds into the Southern and maybe Central parts of the FA....Nothing to worry as that will be short lived...As 1010 MB high pressure build down from ND into the area...Low THUR night upper teens North lower 20s South.....Friday high pressure is forecasted to be over far Western MN this will keep Skies mostly sunny through out the entire FA..High rally back into the middle 40s across much of the FA....Low FRI drop back into the middle 20s....

SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT....

Still rather peaceful....High pressure still in control of the areas...Skies on Sat partly cloudy...High on you first weekend of Apr shall be in the middle 40s...Sat night we see a 990 MB low pressure over KS this is forecasted to spread rain/snow back into the area later on Sat night....Low Sat night in the middle 20s.....

SUNDAY 05 THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT 06....

The 00z runs off of GFS and ECMWF...Shows the track of the storm system above more to the South that in other runs...For the most part models have been trending that over the last few runs...So with that in mind we may very well pull out percip chances in later forecast for this time period...For now will go with rain/snow for the Central and Southern FAS...While our Northern areas may not see anything at all....Highs on Sun in the upper 30 North to around 40s South...Lows Sun night in the middle 20s..Monday will hold on to the rain/snow for our Central and Southern areas...Highs on Mon upper 30s seem to be the way to run as this storm system will drag in more colder area..Low Mon night Middle 20s.....

So this whole FCST cycle above shows temps running 5 to 10 below Norms for this time of year...Will it warm up ? Lets find out by talking about the longer term FCST.....

LONGER TERM......

TUESDAY 07 THROUGH WEDNESDAY 08....

High pressure builds back in the area on Tuesday..Should be a dry period,still cold highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s....Temps still colder than norms....

THURSDAY 09 THROUGH FRI 17...

First out of the gates is precip chances.....THUR we find one storm system to out South,Also a trof moving in form the NW..This very well give us a chance at some light snow through out the FA.Thur into Thur Night...By Sunday 12...We see another system moving in from the Western States..It appear that this system will stay just to the South..May brush my Southern zones with some light precip,Meanwhile we see a clipper like system moving SE out of Canada Models keep this low over Lake Superior..We should see some rain/snow from this system Monday night into Tue the 14...That system pulls away rather fast,however right on it's heels is another system for Tue late night and Wed..With more system moving for the rest of the time frame....Ok lets see what the temps dept is up to this go around....Temps starting this time frame below norms...No shock there,Lets see if we can get them to work faster, to bring in at least temps at norms if not above...By Fri 10th temps shoot right up into the middle 40s some parts of the FA may see upper 40s...So that little kick in the butt helped..How long will it help lets find out....Sat the 11th temps into the upper 40s to middle 50s a good possibility...We do cool off back below norms once again by the 12 /13 and hold that way through the rest of the period....

So to sum up the longer term forecast...Off and on Chance of precip with a few days above norms..However the ave norms through this period will still be below norms...If this pattern hold up...The rest of Apr could be above norms, still the temps will be below norms when we end Apr...So really no end in sight to the below norm temps.....