Forecast discussion for Western/Northwestern WI

Still looking dry right through Saturday, all with warming temps..


***CURRENT CONDITIONS***

At this 9 Am hr under sunny to mostly sunny skies temps range from the upper 50s North to the middle 60s South.. Dewpoints are in the upper 40s to lower 50s...Winds are out of the South from 3 to 7 MPH...

***FORECAST DISCUSSION***

This morning the weather charts of the NAM model is showing a 1025 MB high pressure centered over Southeast WI.... This has allowed for winds to back to the South/Southeast.. This will allow for warmer temps today under mostly to sunny skies...This high pressure is forecasted to drift into Western MI By Friday the high should be over Eastern MI.... Meanwhile one can find a 1001 MN low pressure over WY, this is forecasted to lift Northeastwards toward Western ND before filling, However Friday there is another low pressure system forming over Northeast WY this one is stronger 998 MBS... This is forecasted to move into Far Northwest ND then into Canada on Saturday this low is forecasted to deepen to around 989 MBS.. Temps are forecasted to be in the middle 80s with dewpoints in the lower 60s by later Thursday and lasting through Saturday. Lets look at the GFS model next... GFS has the has the high pressure a tad more North over Northeastern WI later today.. GFS does drop the high into Western MI on Thurs about the same area NAM has it...GFS is faster in moving the high Southeast then NAM by Saturday GFS shows the high on Mid Atlantic Coast line...Meantime GFS has a 1002 MB low in Northeast WY Southeast MT by Thurs..GFS weakens the low later Thurs to around 1007 MBS as it pushes into Western ND/SD...Then we see another low pressure over taken shape over Western ND on Friday, this low is forecasted to around 999 MBS Late Friday night/early Saturday Morning GFS stills shows this low over that are, however the low is forecasted to deepen to around 993 MBS.. By later Saturday said low moves into Canada Just North of Northwestern MN.. The low is forecasted to work Eastwards Sunday... This should drag a cold front into the FA or very close to the FA...GFS showing dewpoints in the middle 60s to upper 60s by the weekend....ECMWF model showing about the same, however it's a tad slower in bring the cold front into and through the area...This would keep showers and thunderstorms through Monday/Monday night.... Which does seem plausible.. Given the other models also have slowed the main weather features down some...

***TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY***

Mostly sunny skies highs today in the middle 70 afew lower 80s not out of the question Highs through the rest of this forecast cycle middle to upper 80s... There still is a chance at seeing lower 90s by Saturday.. Overnight lows in the warming from the middle 50s tonight to the middle 60s Saturday night.

***4th OF JULY THROUGH MONDAY***

We do have a chance at showers and thunderstorms as of right now under mostly cloudy skies.. High in the middle 80s, however if we can get more sun we would have a good chance at seeing temps hitting that 90 degree mark.

So to recap..

It will start to get muggy after today and lasting right through the 4th of July weekend... With a chance of showers and thunderstorms coming into play on the 4th... If models keep slowing everything down we may be able to keep Sunday and Sunday evening dry.... We shall see later in the week...

Forecast discussion for Western/Northwestern WI

Nice stretch of dry weather on tap through Friday...Temps will be a little chilly mainly today and tonight...Hot and humid air returns to the FA by Friday lasting through the 4th of July weekend, along with the warmer temps and higher dewpoints will also come chances of showers and thunderstorms this weekend.


***CURRENT CONDITIONS***

SFC OBS this morning show free AC across the areas...Temps @ this 7 AM hr are in the lower to middle 50s...Middle to upper 40 in my Northern FAs...Dewpoints in the middle to upper 40s... Winds are out of the North/Northeast from 5 to 7 MPH....All stations reporting sunny skies...

***FORECAST DISCUSSION***

A 1024 MB high pressure has built into the area.. This is forecasted to camp out over the upper Midwest/Great lakes area... This insure the FA Sunny skies through Friday... Overnight lows will be rather chilly tonight... most areas middle 40s...Some upper 30s may be found in our colder spots... Tomorrow morning the high pressure starts to drift East/Southeast toward Southern Lake MI this will set up a return flow so temps on Wednesday shall be warmer middle 70s with some areas reaching for the upper 70s.. Meantime we see a 1001 MB low pressure Northern WY this will also aid in warmer temps.., Thursday the high pressure builds to around 1027 MBS as it is forecasted to be over SW MI... Low pressure out in WY moves into far Western SD... Expect temps to warm into the 80s Friday the high pressure system is forecasted to be centered around Northeast MI, meantime Low pressure over the WY/far Western SD deepens to around 996 MBS as it pushes towards far Northern ND.. The 4th of july weekend still somewhat remains up in the air on showers and thunderstorm chances.. Dependant on what tropical storm Alex does will play a role on deep moisture return into the area.. So all eyes on Alex over the next few days...As of right now am banking on a cold front to start to push into the area by the weekend this should start to flatten out the ridge we are under...Should see showers and thunderstorms break out ahead of and along the frontal boundary...Should be a slow mover so right as of now the best way to run with this weekend's forecast is to paint showers and thunderstorms in right through Monday... Again we will have to watch Alex to see what kinds of effects Alex will have on our weather.... Nevertheless starting Friday and lasting through Monday temps will soar into the middle to upper 80s.. If we see more sunshine on Saturday and Sunday we could be talking temps in the lower 90s...Yes more humid air also in the cards...

Heavy rainfall last night

Once again last night the FA picked up heavy rainfall....This is the Doppler Radar Estimated Storm Total Rainfall....First image is from Duluth, The second image is from the Chanhassen...As you can see widespread 1 inch plus fell last night..Click on image to enlarge..Good news is we should see a nice dry run of weather for this upcoming week..

Severe weather chances later today into tonight...

More severe thunderstorms are possible through parts of the FA once again later this afternoon and into tonight... So this FA discussion will focus on that...


***CURRENT CONDITIONS***

SFC OBS this morning shows temps in the middle to upper 60s cooler up in my far Northern areas... Skies for the most part cloudy with areas of fog..There has been some breaks note in the cloud deck per satellite imagery.. Winds range from the North to South across the FA.... Dewpoints still rather muggy middle to upper 60s once again cooler up North....

***FORECAST DISCUSSION***

This morning's fog and low clouds burn off and set us up with a partly cloudy day...This will allow for temps to reach for middle 80s might see a few upper 80s... Last night MCS that formed over MN/WI has forced the warm front back down into IA... This morning we see a 1001 MB low pressure system over West NE... Along what appears to be a shortwave around CO..Low over NE is forecasted to slowly push East this will try to push the warm front back Northwards, once again dependant on how far the frontal boundary comes North will be how far North to bring the severe weather threat... Will talk about that in a min... Nonetheless most of the FA should see heavy rainfall once again this evening into the over night hrs as storms form into MCS...OK time to hash out where the best area of severe thunderstorms may rear their ugly heads later today.... Cape values soar from 1500 J/KG to around 2500 J/KG for Central and Southern parts on the FA...LIS around -4... Dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s will be the rule right through tonight... Looking at the 700 MB chart we find temps around the +5c to +10c range so capping won't be an issue as of now.... PWS ranging from 1.25 to 1.50 inches across the FA...There is better upper level support today and most of the severe indices are being meet.... SFC heating has kicked in for parts of the FA this morning.... So with the warm front near by later this afternoon and a cold front pushing into the area later this evening...Thunderstorms once again should blow up rather fast in MN.... My thinking is the main tornado threat will be out in MN giving the better dynamics in place over there....Storms will be capable of producing large tornadoes on the on slot then storms are forecasted to form into MCS, as this happens the main threat will be hail and damaging winds along with very heavy rainfall amounts... Now thinking is as of right now, which may change by this afternoon is the severe thunderstorm threat will remain South of a Barron, Polk, and Rusk County line....Said Counties still could see heavy rainfall and strong thunderstorms... With a few of the storms reaching the lower thresholds on the severe weather scale.

Forecast discussion for West Central & Northwest WI

This forecast discussion will namely revolve around the severe thunderstorm chances along with heavy rainfall.... Lots to talk about this morning so lets dive right into....


***CURRENT CONDITIONS***

This morning temps are in the lower to middle 60s throughout the entire FA Dewpoints are in the upper 50s to lower 60s... Skies range from Partly sunny to sunny... Winds are light out of the SE.... Radar is showing a area of showers and thunderstorms over North Central to West Central MN some of these thunderstorms have been severe this morning...The entire area is moving East/Southeast....

***FORECAST DISCUSSION***

This morning weather charts feature a 1017 MB high pressure centered over far Northwestern MI, this has allowed a return flow to take over the FA a frontal boundary/Warm front over Southern MN shall remain there throughout Saturday before a cold front kick its out of the area...Warm front may try to work Northwards from time to time, however thunderstorms complexes should hold it at bay.... Nevertheless this frontal boundary will set the stage for thunderstorms later this afternoon.... Now dependant on what transpires with this morning's complex will decide if we see severe thunderstorms or not...SPC has the area under a mod risk of severe thunderstorms... Still the atmosphere is forecasted to destabilizes dewpoints are forecasted to reach the upper 60s to lower 70s... meanwhile Cape is forecasted to increase from 500 to 2000 J/KG this afternoon... LIS are forecasted to range from -2 to -4 EHI is forecasted to range from 0.0 to 1.0 across the FA even higher over parts of MN... Thinking this is where the greatest tornado threat will setup... Not saying my FA won't see any tornadoes... Upper level support is not what I would like to see ATTM... Tomorrow afternoon the upper level support does look better... Tonight thunderstorms are forecasted to form into MCS with damaging wind threat along with heavy rainfall QPF showing 1 to 2 inches of rain with localized higher amounts... I would not be shocked to see some 3 or even four inch amounts, if thunderstorms are slow to move, and keep training over the same areas... With the ground already saturated flooding may become a problem for the area... Will have to watch this as this event unfolds.... Will keep the severe weather threat alive for tomorrow as the frontal boundary remains close if not overhead... tomorrow may be the best severe weather day... Again this will depend on if the tonight's thunderstorm complex clears the area to allow for SFC heating to kick in.... Nonetheless looks to be a busy couple of days here on the road and at the office....

So to recap today and through Saturday night severe weather threats...
Later today into the evening the risk would be large hail and damaging winds...One or two tornadoes can't be rules out... Thinking is South Central/Southern MN would have the better chance for tornadoes.... This evening into the over night hrs the risk shall turn to damaging winds and flooding.... Saturday afternoon into the evening severe weather threat...Large hail damaging winds, a few tornadoes will be possible...Then again the threat for Saturday late evening through the over night hrs switches back to a damaging and flooding event....
***RADAR UPDATE AS OF 8:00 AM***
Showers and thunderstorms now have pushed into Douglass,Bayfield, Burnett,and Washburn Counties... This area is moving to the East/Southeast...

Severe weather chances along with more heavy rainfall...

Warm today through the weekend, with the severe thunderstorm chances returning to the FA...


Not a lot to talk about for today, what you see is what you get...There may be a shower or thunderstorm up in the far Northern areas of the FA.... Highs today should be in the upper 70s to lower 80s with lower dewpoints so won't be as humid..

Time to talk about the severe weather chances...
Like always this spring/early summer a few things will make it or break...
First off a warm front shall try to work North in Southern MN Friday... How far this warm front can make it North along with a few other factors.... As it looks right now MCS should form over ND/MN and push into the FA on Friday night... This should bring heavy rainfall back into the area.... The threat for large hail and damaging winds seem to be the main players... Saturday still up in the air for severe weather chances.... Will depend how fast the morning's thunderstorm complexes move out, and if we can get enough daytime SFC heating.... Looks like more night time thunderstorms will be likely, some which could be severe ahead of a cold front that is forecasted to work its way through the area...Temps will be tricky they will depend on cloud cover along with how far the North the warm front makes it..... 80s North of the front, with upper 80s to lower 90s South of the frontal boundary.... Will have a better handle on this tomorrow..

The site is up and running!

Ok folks the site is up and running Craig is adding pictures from my local chase last night... You will have to sign up to leave comments.... Pictures should be ready in couple hrs..Again this site is for near time storm chases it will display about where we are sitting on a map....Heck just play around with it..We hope to test this out later today into this evening...I will be busy until after 4 another doc appt @330 today...The link is...I will also add this link off on the right hand side also....


http://wws.meaoy.info/