The forecast for Western/Northwestern WI.

Get ready for a brief warm up…Then cooling down a little for the upcoming weekend with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms for Saturday night and Sunday…. The 4th of July looks to be a nice one with warm temps, a great day for the lakes….The longer term keeps temps warm before a strong cold front knocks us back to way below norms once again more on this later….


***CURRENT CONDITIONS***

At 11 AM skies range from partly sunny to cloudy…Temps in the upper 60s..Winds NW from 6 to 9 MPH….

***FORECAST DISCUSSION***

1020 MB high pressure is located over Southwestern IA this late morning.. This will provide the area with a mostly sunny skies..Once this morning clouds do burn off…Vis satellite showing clear skies over in MN. With cu field over the FA, however there a plenty of holes..Except this trend to lead to mostly sunny skies… High pressure slips of into Southeastern part of IA later tonight, this will allow for winds to slowly become out of the South hence WAA should be kicking in late tonight early Wednesday morning… The high then moves to the East of us during the day of Wed this will allow for a return flow and warmer temp compared to today… Wednesday night into early Thursday morning we could be dealing with a severe weather event over the Central and Northern FA, however cap is rather strong…Indications are there on the models so will have to watch this closely, and update forecast for this if needed….For now will run with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms…Thursday high pressure still control of our weather….We do see a warm front working its way into Southern MN…While a 994 MB low pressure is centered over far Northwestern ND and another low pressure over Western WY…Warm and humid air will be flowing into the area between the Low out to our West/Northwest and the high out to our East…Warm front blast through the area on late Thursday night/early Friday Morning….This will set the stage for very warm and humid air for the day Friday...Two things that kept me from going higher with the temps 1. Winds won’t be out of the Southwest. 2. Higher dewpoints that are forecasted….If these two were to chance middle 90s would be a sure bet across parts of the FA…Decided to run with upper 80s to lower 90s…Models seem to agree with that… Middle 90s should stay over in Southern MN and into IA…..Cold front moves through the FA late Friday/Friday night’s time frame…700 MB temps are forecasted to be from 12 to 15 c so a very strong cape in place…So will run the front through the area dry…. Cold front moves back North into the area for Saturday night/Sunday’s time frame so have decided to run with a small chance of showers and thunderstorms GFS seems to a little too high with precip chances so will blend it with EC model….

***NOW YOUR SHORT TERM & MIDDLE TERM FORECAST***

TODAY… Becoming mostly sunny highs 70 to 75. Winds NW 10 to 15 MPH..

TONIGHT… Clear and cool lows 48 to 53.. Winds slowly becoming Southeast around 5 MPH.

WEDNESDAY… PC to sunny highs 75 to 80. Winds South 10 to MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT… Small chance of showers and thunderstorms. Some storms could be severe if they do form… Lows 60 to 65 South/Southeast winds 10 to 15 MPH.

THURSDAY… PC small chance of early morning showers and thunderstorms…highs 80 to 85. Lows 70 to 75.

FRIDAY… PC very warm and humid…Highs 85 to 90.

FRIDAY NIGHT.. Clear cooler less humid lows 60 to 65.

SATURDAY.. Sunny cooler less humid highs 75 to 80.

SATURDAY NIGHT…PC slight chance of showers and thunderstorms….Lows 57 to 62.

SUNDAY… Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms… Highs 75 to 80.

JULY 4th .. PC to sunny highs 80 to 85.

***LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION JULY 5TH THROUGH JULY 14TH ***

We start this period with normal to slight above normal temps…By time we reach the end of this forecast cycle temps fall back to way below normal…. We will find showers and thunderstorms making their way back into the forecast late in the day on the 5th and early morning hours of the 6th…Does dry out in the afternoon hours of the 6th…. The 7th we see a low pressure system moving into Central MN form WY then into Eastern WI by the 8th. This will provide showers and thunderstorms from late afternoon of the 7th right through the evening hours of the 8th… The 9th and 10th shall be controlled by a high pressure system with dry conditions…..Another low pressure system moves into the area for the 11th through the early morning hours of 13th ….Also a strong cold front will sweep across the area… Note this looks to be a very strong cold front for this time of year…..

***NOW YOUR LONG RANGE FORECAST***

JULY 5th … Late day showers and thunderstorms possible. Highs 78 to 83.Lows 55 to 60.

JULY 6th … Early morning showers/storms… Highs 80 to 85.Lows 65 to 70.

JULY 7th …. Late day showers and thunderstorms… Highs 80 to 85. Lows 65 to 70.

JULY 8th…. Showers and thunderstorms… Highs 75 to 80. Lows 55 to 60.

JULY 9th and 10th…. Dry highs 75 to 80. Lows 56 to 65..

JULY 11th … Showers and thunderstorms… Highs 80 to 85. Lows 60 to 65…

JULY 12th … Showers and thunderstorm…. Highs 75 to 80.. Lows 55 to 60..

July 13th showers ending….Highs 65 to 70..Lows 46 to 53.

JULY 14th … Dry… Highs 65 to 70 lows 46 to 53….

We may have to cut temps by a few degree for July 11th through July 14th time frame… Will run with this for now….

***DISCLAIMER***


THE FORECAST ABOVE IS OUR OWN THOUGHTS TO WHAT MAY HAPPEN..FOR THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SEE THE NWS WEBSITE…DO NOT USE OUR FORECAST OR SHORT TERM FORECAST FOR LIFE SAVING DECISIONS! FOR ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS SEE YOUR LOCAL NWS WEBSITE OR WEATHER RADIO…NEVER DEPEND ON OUR SITE FOR SHORT TERM FORECASTING AS WE MAY NOT BE HERE..IN FACT NEVER USE ANY BLOGS FOR SHORT TERM FORECASTS ALWAYS SEE THE NWS WITH ALL THIS INFO!!!!