The forecast

Forecast still hinges around a possible ice storm for parts of the FA..

CURRENT CONDITIONS....

Temps this morning starting out rather warm once again...Middle teens through out much of the FA...Light snow has been showing up on radar over my far Northern parts of MN SFC OBS showing cloudy to clear skies across the area...Fog is also starting take hold this early morning across part of our Southern areas of WI...

SFC ANALYSIS.....

This mornings weather map showing a 1030 MB high pressure over NE/IA..Cold front that moved through the area yesterday morning is now into the OH/TN Valleys....We also see a short-wave moving across the MN/Canada border....

TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

High pressure will be in control of our weather...The short-wave that is now moving across the MN/Canada border will slowly take the clouds and light snow/flurries out of that part of the FA,this will leave that area high and dry by late this morning...Temps for today will be about the same as yesterday..Tonight we should see clouds increasing...Models have delayed the onset of precip until early Monday morning for the Southern areas and late Monday morning for the Northern areas....

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY....

Monday 00Z we see our trouble maker over the western part of the TX panhandle..By 06Z low should have moved into Western CO and deepen to around 996 MBS..By Tuesday 00Z said low should be around the Northern part of SD..By 12Z Tuesday the low is forecasted to be into ND riding the ND/MN Border...As the low moves along this track this will drag a warm front into the Southern and Central areas..SFC and upper thermal profiles would suggest FRZ rain to start the show across our Southern and Central areas sometime before sunrise..Then work it's way Northward to encompass the entire forecast area....Upper level and SFC temps do warm enough to change the FRZ Rain over to all rain in our Southern and into a small part of our Central MN areas,while over in WI we should see the FRZ rain change over to all rain before the noon hour...Will hold onto the same thinking for Monday night FRZ rain North,while rain and frz rain Central and Southern areas along with snow mixing into the mix...Tuesday low still effecting the area still not sure on the profiles upper or at the SFC so for now I just went rain/snow this may need to be changed this afternoon...As far as thunderstorms in our Southern areas...There remains the possibility with good moisture available and the strength of the low pressure,however LIS are just around the 0 mark..Winds will become a problem with storm system,as pressure gradients tighten up winds could gust from 25 to 30 MPH across the FA....Temps will remain above norms through this time frame...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

We see another strong low pressure Moving Northeast,along with a clipper like system moving along the MN/Canada border..May see some light snow from the Northern system into our Central and Northern areas,while our Southern areas should remain dry,though there is chance that we may see some light snow here also...After that looks to be dry as we have no ties with the Southern jet stream and the Northern jet stream remains North of the FA...Temps are forecasted to cool back down to norm or slightly below norms...

LONGER TERM FORECAST..(MONDAY FEB 16 THROUGH TUESDAY FEB 24)

We start off the period dry,however by the Wed/Thu time frame we will be watching a storm system moving into the area..This could turn out to be a good size winter storm,temp do look cold enough for this to be all snow...We will start this time frame with temps near or slightly below norms,however temps should warm nicely by the end of the period,with above norms...Like always the long term forecast is way out there and things can, and sometimes do change.....