Major winter storm has now moved out of the area...Forecast problems shall be the Arctic air now over the area,how long to keep it going,Then a slow warm up with more precip late next week...Then long term forecast could prove to be a pain...
CURRENT CONDITIONS.....
Temps in the lower single digits are common this morning..So temps just below the zero mark..Here we have a temps of -1.6...
Skies for the most part are cloudy through out the area....Temps in MN have dropped well below zero teens below to around 20 below..Skies range from partly cloudy to mostly clear in those areas....
SFC ANALYSIS....
This morning weather charts shows the fast major winter storm that slammed the area yesterday is now located over Western part of MI...Meanwhile we see a 1037 MB high pressure building into the FA from just North of ND....
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY....
Cold dry Arctic high pressure will build into the area this shall clear skies out this early morning,if they have not cleared out already...Winds shall be slacking off as we go through the day..Right now pressure tends.are raising about 1.5 MB/hour,by later today the raises should be only around .5 to .7 MB /hour...This will allow for winds to decrease.Temps today won't make much about 10 maybe 15 in some of the warmer areas..By 00Z Saturday we find the 1037 MB high pressure camping out over the FA...This will allow for winds to become calm under clear skies and the fresh deep snow pack temps will be allowed to fall well below zero...10 to 15 below looks to be the way to run for tonight...This weekend is shaping up to be a rather uneventful one...Under partly to mostly sunny skies temps will still remain below ave..Lows below zero and highs in the upper teens to close to 20.....
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT....
We find a weak short-wave trying to move into the area Along with WAA starting to kick in...Can't ignore it so will have to have some light snow through this time frame..Should be light..I might pull the chances of this from the forecast tomorrow...Temps Monday still remain below norms....
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY....
Temps warm back up into the lower to middle 30s, as a warm ridge builds into the area...Not much more to say about this time frame.....
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY......
Here things get interesting once again....We find a 993 MB low pressure moving from MY into SD by 18Z Thru,by 00Z Friday said low moves into Northeast NE/Northwest IA by this time the pressure readings of said low are up to around 996 MBS...By 06Z Friday low is over Central MN just Northwest of the Twin Cities area...By 12Z Friday said low is forecasted to be into Central WI...Thermal temps show that the area should be warm enough for mostly rain Winter Critical thickness also confirms this rather well as the 540 line remains well out over Western MN.....850 MB temps show temps around 2C to close to 4C....
So one would think this would be a rain event,I will run with that thinking for now.....
LONGER TERM...(MAR 7 THROUGH MAR 15)
Said system pulls away from the area...May see some light snow ending this system as cooler air gets drawn Southwards....
Sort break in the action,before we find and areas of disturb weather moving in the SD for Mar 8...This system here could go either way with rain and or snow the 540 line sets up right over Western WI....850 MB temps show the area right around 0C....Meanwhile the 700 MB temps right around -9C to -10C....We may be dealing with an ice storm if this pans outs..This system will also end as light snow later in the day on Mar 8....After this system temps drop back to way below norms once again..Temps are forecasted to range from -4C to -12C...Temps do warm back close to 0C by Mar 15...There will be a chance of some off and on light snow through the period...Won't even try to time that,as this forecast is way out there in time....
Pop Pop Heaven
4 years ago
