Not a good looking forecast,if you love snow.

Forecast problems through the short to middle term,temps, wintry mix,FZ Rain,rain,and a chance at seeing our first thunderstorm of the year...

CURRENT CONDITIONS.....

Temps this morning still rather on the cold side...-2 here at the office while in Rice Lake +2 down in Eau Claire +9..Towards the MN Border temps are in the lower to middle teens...Skies range from partly cloudy to clear across the area....

SFC ANALYSIS...

1000 MB low pressure over MY this morning with a warm front across NE,and IA,meanwhile Artic high pressure well to the South/Southeast of the area,Still keeping temps rather cool through out most of my FA......

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY....

Low pressure over MT will work it's way into the Western ND, and SD by 18Z today..In the mean time we will see a cold front dropping Southeast out of Canada into far Northern areas of MT, and ND...1000 MB low is than forecasted to track into the Eastern 1/3 of ND by 00Z Saturday..By 006Z Saturday said low should be over North Central MN...This will help drag a warm front through the area ,along with a trof of low pressure reaching through MN into IA...By 12Z Saturday Low pressure is forecasted to be centered in the Northeastern part of MN,around the Lake/Cook Counties...Trof and warm front would have been cleared from the FA by then....Clod front will being to drop through MN and knocking on the Northwester WI'S door Late Saturday night Early Sunday morning 00Z Sunday cold front will have cleared all of WI...One more weak trof to push throf before sunrise....1026 MB high pressure is forecasted to drop in the ND by this time frame...By 12Z Sunday high pressure will be centered over South Central MN,around Blue Earth County....Temps today will be tricky...Models showing lower 40s possible,however with winds more out of the South/Southeast don't feel that will happen with wind field flowing over a large snow pack..If winds would have been out of the Southwest then I would have brought into that....So for today will trim temps back....Lets break this down...Today mostly sunny highs 34 to 37.Winds South/Southeast 5 to 10 MPH...Tonight increasing clouds early, than a chance of light freezing drizzle and fog also possible...Lows tonight 20 to 25.Winds South to Southwest 5 to 10 MPH..Saturday mostly cloudy with off and on chances of light snow and freezing drizzle.Highs 30 to 36.Winds becoming West/Northwest.10 to 15 MPH..Saturday night...Dry under mostly cloudy skies lows 10 to 15..Winds Northwest 5 to 10 MPH..
Sunday mostly sunny with highs 25 to 30 winds Northwest around 5 MPH become South later in the day....

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.....

Things get interesting the first part of this time frame.....All models bring a strong low pressure Northeast into the area..It appears as of right now we will be on the warm side of the low pressure...This will cause a few problems....1..Sunday night and into Monday morning we should be dealing with snow/sleet/and freezing rain...The freezing rain cloud hamper morning travel....By Monday late morning early afternoon warmer air should have overcome the FA in the lower and upper levels to chance any mixed precip over to all rain...Problem Number 2 is The warmer air and rain..We may also see a few thunderstorms later in the day Monday close to home...This could enhance the rainfall rates,This will all help in bringing our snow pack down this will cause melting of the snow...This may lead to some flooding problems through out the FA...However if a severe thunderstorm outbreak happen well to our South this will rob the moisture flowing North into our area,and this would lower the QPF which as of right now is forecasted to be around .25 to .75 inches,So we will have to watch this to see if this plays out,if it does our snow pack won't take as much as a hit as it could have.....Temps through this period will be in the lower to middle 30s.Now if this storm was to track more to the East and South we would be dealing with all snow,However with models in very good agreement over the several runs will stay the track on their thinking with a mostly rain event for the FA..Wednesday and Thursday will run with a chance of light snow,however the big system that could have brought us a whooper of a snowstorm will remain well South of the area...We will watch it as it way out in time.....
No time for long term forecast today,will deal with in tomorrow's forecast package....