Forecast

Forecast problem...Possible snow event from Monday through Wednesday than again on Friday....Temps rather simple in short and middle term periods...

CURRENT CONDITIONS.....

Under clear to partly cloudy skies and calm winds temps have really dropped of this morning...Well into the teens below zero over our Northern areas of MN,while single digits below zero found through out the rest of the FA..Here in Rice Lake we have a temp of -1....Most other stations coming in at or slightly above zero by a few degrees....Think temps will fall a degree or two as the sun comes up...

SFC ANALYSIS.....

This morning we see a 1034 MB high pressure over Northern ND,Meanwhile see our next system over the far Northern plains..Then our possible trouble maker now sitting over the Northern CA Coastal area..Oh we aren't done just yet..We also see our next shot of Arctic air in the form of a cold front over the Arctic region....Let break this all down....

TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

Today 1034 MB high pressure is forecasted to move into Western MN by 12Z today,by 18Z we find the high sitting right over our FA...This will ensure the FA a nice peaceful day..Temps should be a little cooler than yesterday however...Tonight most of the FA will be under the influence of said high wind light winds and mostly clear skies temps will once again drop below the zero mark.....

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY....

High pressure will be moving off the East/Southeast of the area..We get into a return flow,as winds back out of the South/Southwest..This will allow WAA to kick in,at the same time a trof will be pushing into the areas from the West...This will give our Northern areas the best chance of snow..Though on the light side some accumulations will be possible,mainly over our Northern MN areas Monday/Monday night....Now here is were the forecast becomes a little complicated...
Lets talk about the ECMWF model first..Looking at the 00Z run ECMWF has a low pressure of 998 MBS over Far Northern KS/far Southern NE..The low is than forecasted to move into Far Northern IL/Southern WI sometime Wednesday late afternoon into Wed night time frame,than push into MI...ECMWF has been tracking this storm system more North with each run..Going back to the 12Z run low is more South...Also this model is trying to phase in our short-wave over Northern MN, and WI into the low..If this was to play out,our Southern FA of WI could very well be dealing with a snowstorm....Lets look at the GFS the 00Z run keeps the low way to our South...Tracks the low from KS into Central IL and then into Northeastern IN..For the most part GFS has been holding onto that track for sometime now...Meanwhile NAM as come into agreement with ECMWF with the track of the low...Here were a forecaster goes crazy....GFS has not been real great this winter with winter storms,while ECMWF has been doing rather great with systems like this one....I will blend them together...Still will go with the thinking that the heavy snow will be South of the FA for now.Our far Southern FA of WI could pick up a few inches of snow,this still remains to be seen .So with that I will have no choice to push this all on to the next forecaster,as this whole thing is has not come together yet..Still many problems with the models not seeing eye to eye on this...

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.....

Thursday the low pulls away from the area should be a rather nice day setting up,temps will still remain below norms...We will be watching a clipper like system moving down from Canada for Friday..This could bring the FA a shot of a couple of inches of snow..As of right now the weekend should be rather dull,may get some LES going along the South Shore of WI once again...Temps still look to remain below norms for this time frame...

LONG TERM (MONDAY FEB 23 - TUESDAY MAR 3)

Looks like a rather active period coming into play...GFS and ECMWF both agree on bringing up a low pressure from the CO area into Eastern WI around the Door County area Monday night into Tuesday night's time frame...Looks like this could bring the FA a winter storm......By Sat another system is forecasted to move into the area ,this one could bring us a mixed bad of precip as the winter critical thickness line will be close if not over the FA,May be another ice storm as the 700 MB temps would show that as of right now...Sat night into Sunday precip should be changing over to all snow as colder air works in behind this system.....Temps will start the period below norms..With a few day slightly above norms,for the most part though temps shall remain below norms...