Forecast..still no spring

Forecast problems.....Temps up and down...Storm system for mid week,than Arctic blast for the weekend..Long term snow chances,and temps...Lets see if we can solve these problems.....

CURRENT CONDITIONS....

Temps this morning starting either side of zero,all depending on if an area was clear through out the night...Here at the office -2 right now...Those areas that have cloudy skies are holding in the middle to upper single digits....Radar showing some areas of Light snow/flurries around the South Shore,and points West...Nothing to heavy has been reported....

SFC ANALYSIS.....

This morning's weather map we find the low pressure that brought our Southern FA of MN,and WI any where from 1 to 4 inches of snow..This system is over Eastern MN,models have a great handle on this,lines up well with the satellite image....We also see some clouds moving into the Northern parts of our MN FA....Some flurries have been reported with this feature....Also some LES have been showing up on radar along with SFC reports.....

TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.....

Clouds will keep drifting South out of Canada and should over take the areas today,I decided to run with mostly cloudy to partly cloud skies,as I do think there will be breaks here and there...May be some flurries off and on through out the day,only kept them in the Northern areas of MN,and around the South Shore of WI do to LES.....Temps today will still be rather cool with upper teens to lower 20s....Tonight we see the clouds scatter out setting the stage for another sub zero night across the Northwood's as a 1039 MB high pressure camps out over the area tonight and slowly moves out Monday afternoon..On Monday we get into a return flow,so should see temps a few degrees warmer....Clouds increase for Monday night as WAA kicks in.......
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TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.....

Things get a little interesting during this time frame....Temps do warm up into the lower 30s to middle 30s for Tuesday and Wednesday....Looks like our Southern and Central FAS could see a mix of preicp,as of now I only have that in the Southern areas of my WI area...We will be watching a 1003 low pressure move onto the Western Dakotas by 00Z Wed.....Low is forecasted to move into Central MN by 12Z Wed by 18Z Wed the low should be over the UP of MI...Early on in with this system we will be close to the Winter Critical Thickness...Through our Central, and Southern zones.....While our Northern zones should see all snow..Thermal temps through out our Central and Southern areas do show a good chance at mixed precip to start with,before changing to all snow by Wed afternoon...We will be watch another system drifting in from the West for Thur...This one should effect mainly the Central and Southern areas of MN,along with all our WI zones..We will have to watch this as it could produce some nice snowfall amounts.....

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY....

Large Arctic high pressure builds into the area for Fri..Models have this at 1034 or so MBS...This will ensure us another cold weekend with temps below zero for lows and highs near 20......

LONGER TERM (MONDAY MAR 2 THROUGH TUE MAR 10).....
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We start with models showing a system moving through the area..Temps will remain cold enough for light snows as the system moves along the Canada border...High pressure takes control of the weather from Wed through early Fri....At the same time we will be watching a system get going over the Northern Plains...Not excepting much with that system as it fizzles out....By 00Z Sat we find a low pressure getting it's act ready to go on stage over CO/NM..Low is forecasted to move Northeast into SE NE by 12Z Friday....Low drops into Eastern MO/Western IL by 00Z Sunday....Low is than forecasted to lift into Northeastern IL by 12Z Sunday..Low is forecasted to deepen to around 979 MBS..I think that is a little to deep...By 00Z Monday said low should be pushing into Northeastern areas of MI...Most of the heavy snow as of right looks like it will remain South and East of the area...One thing is for sure this low pressure will draw in more Arctic air into the area..We will have to watch this system as if forms,and once the mid and short term models latch on to it...