looks like a big mess for the weekend...One word to sum it up = crappy

Forecast problems...All kinds to deal with and try to work out before the weekend...


First off the possibilities of and ice storm,second possibility of heavy snow....So lets see what we can do with the newest info I have in front of me as of now....

First off the ice storm that is effecting IA and far Southern MN and Southeast MN into Southwest and Southern WI...Looking at the RUC model we find a low pressure system moving into Northwest MO...This has drawn in plenty of GOM moisture,also has drawn in warmer temps aloft,while SFC temps have been in the upper 20s to lower 30s through out said areas...This has caused problem with FRZG RA....Models do keep this system to our South...So the likely hood of the that playing out this far North is slim to none...However the FA should see some snow/sleet/and FRZG RA through out tomorrow and Thursday night...This may cause a few travel problems....We get a break on Friday with PTLY CLDY skies and temps right around the 30 degree mark....

Now on to the main system of interest....

First off we start with the ECMWF model....We see a 985 MB low pressure taking shape out over Northeast CO....This low is forecasted to lift into Northern SD..Then move across WI into the UPI of MI by time it reach this point the low should be right around 992 MBS.......Now with the track of this low as of now this would allow for warmer temps at the SFC and aloft...So here is were things get tricky.....During the daytime hrs on Sat we could see just a period of rain...During the night time hrs of Friday and Sat we should see more FRZG RA and sleet...thermal profiles show this rather well on this model,and GFS model....Sat night as the low starts to pull away we shall see any mixed precip change over to all snow,the snow should last right through much of the day Monday...Now the big question is were will the heavy snow band set up? looks like the deformation axis should set up to our west/Northwest over in MN...Still over here in WI we could see some snow accumulations...Thinking is right now is to run with forecast package, though ECMWF is more North with this system than GFS,however GFS has warmer air also pulling into the area...So all in all models do agree on one big mess....So I see no reason to think any different ATTM...Will see what happens in later runs and update the forecast as needed...Looks like there could be some significant ice accumulations close to my FA if not my FA....This system will need to watch...

Cooler temps will follow this system...Models are hinting at an Arctic cold front slamming into the area about Wednesday...So the long party of warm winter temps appears to becoming to an end the middle part of next week...So party on until then!