Friday, February 22, 2013
Some pictures and a video link of today’s snow event….. In other news we got a few emails stating that, those people would like us to forecast for their area…..So with that said we are kicking the idea around about over taken Weather 4 You……Plus we will also expand our forecast to the West to include East Central MN…More on this in the upcoming days!!! Some snowfall amounts to the right in the short term forecast...Here at the office ....Oh wait you will have to wait to tomorrow for this...Plus we will have the updated amounts then.....
Link to video is here..
Thursday, February 21, 2013
Forecast concerns…..Well there really isn’t any…..Still looks like we shall see 4 to 5 inches of snow for my FA…..Temps will begin to warm….We are watching another storm system for the beginning of next week…More on all this coming up…..
Mostly to partly cloudy skies blanket the FA....Temps range from 10 to 18 degrees....Winds NE from clam to around 7 MPH....
***FORECAST DISCUSSION TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY***
First off lets talk about the over hype snowstorm for Southern MN into WI…..Well like I said over hype here, is the real forecast for the MN and WI….Looking at all the computer models we do see NAM is still the main outlier….It has way to much precip across MN and WI….ECMWF/has had the best handle on this system while GFS/GEM/SREF have come into agreement …Though they weren’t a day ago like some would like you to think…..
Low pressure over Western TX Panhandle is forecasted to slowly work East/slightly Northeast into MO then it’s forecasted to move into Northeastern IL, then North up into the UP of MI…..Normally a storm track of such would bring the area heavy snow…..This is not the case….1. the storm is forecasted to weaken as is moves Northeast….2 the area is still under a dry flow from a high pressure over Hudson Bay….3 strong to severe thunderstorms along a cold front will be moving East which will help Cut off the moisture supply from the GOM…4 the system has slowed down which will give it time to weaken more before it hits MN/WI….With all that said yes we will still see some snow the heaviest will fall in NE/IA KS/MO…Also noted there should be ice in Southern MO depending on how fast the warm air moves into those areas….With the system weaken or fills in this will be a long lasting light snow event this is why I have snowfall amount as they are…(See map).Snow will becoming to an end Saturday morning across the FA….No cold air behind this system so temp should be either side of normal this weekend….
On to the next system on tap for Sunday night/Tuesday….
This system seems to behave like the one set to move through the area tomorrow….Low will be weaken as it pushes towards the area…Computer models are all over the place with timing and the track of the system….ECMWF seems to have the best handle on it while GFS is slowly coming to terms with ECMWF….This system could be more of a wintry mix down in Southern MN and WI while all snow in my FA….As of right now not to excited about this until models get into a better agreement on how things shall play out…..Kind of pointless and useless attm…..
Saturday, February 16, 2013
Forecast concerns. 1 cold temps, 2 clipper system for Sunday through Tuesday, 3 cold temps again, 4 Possible major winter storm later in the upcoming work week.
For today….Won’t see temps climb no higher than the middle teens in our Central and Northern areas, even in my Southern areas temps will be hard pressed to get to the upper teens…High pressure over head, however we will see off and on flurries and light snow as an inversion seems to have setup throughout the FA….So we shall see partly to mostly cloudy skies with flurries and pockets of light snow showers…..With the clouds in place don’t look for temps to warm all that great….
Tonight…..With partly to mostly cloudy skies temps will remain in check, still we shall drop below zero most areas….Right now thinking is temps will be a few degrees warmer than last night, however areas that do see longer clear skies could drop to near this morning lows….
Sunday through Tuesday…..We see a clipper type system dropping into Northern MN….This will trek Eastwards along the MN border…..This could bring my Northern/Central areas an inch of snow, best moisture will remain North of the FA with flurries possible in my Southern areas through Tuesday morning….
Tuesday night through Wednesday…… Arctic high pressure is forecasted to setup camp in the FA….This will once again allow for colder temps, lows well below zero with highs in the lower to middle teens….Lows on Tuesday night will highly depend on how fast the clouds move out….
Thursday through Friday night…….The possibilities of a major winter storm for this time frame….Still a lot of things that need to be worked out……This will also depend on how blocked up the weather pattern becomes…..
How far South the dry air up in Ontario gets dragged into the system….Models have been playing the flip flopping game on this system and also offering different solutions, though they do agree on forming a blocking period. Either way looks like we will see snow through all of the FA…We will have a better handle on this as we near closer to the middle of next week…..
Wednesday, February 13, 2013
Have to update the snowfall forecast map..As low is tracking a little more South....Have also lowered snowfall amounts in Southern MN and WI...Also lowered snowfall amounts up North.....Increased snowfall amounts, we added some 5 inch reports possible....See map below......Side note, some areas along Lake Superior may see some snowfall amount for 2 to 6 inches......Which we didn't mark.....
Forecast concerns will be the incoming clipper system for later today into Thursday morning…..Then blowing/drifting snow for tomorrow afternoon…..Then the cold temps forecasted throughout the weekend….
***FORECAST DISCUSSION (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
Clouds have already took over much of the FA, still some clear to partly cloudy skies found to our North…Looking at the visible satellite those areas up North of us should fill in quickly this morning…..
We find a wide range in temps this morning, where there has been sun temps are close to 30….Superior is sitting at 29 right now, while here in Rice Lake we are at 25…..Want warmer temps head North…..With the cloud cover in place/forecasted to be in place today temps should be kept in check….May see another 2 to 3 degree rise before they steady out…..
Tonight the clipper will be passing over my Southern Counties this will set up and an area of snow for much of the area…..Main snow band should set up Northwestern MN down into Northwestern WI…This should give most of my forecast area at a running chance of seeing form 2 to 4 inches of snow…..1 to 3 in my far Southern parts of My Southern Counties….Meanwhile Southwestern WI and Southeastern MN will be lucky to see an inch of snow…I have those area highlighted for ½ to an inch of snow…..May have to drop those areas…..Will leave them for now……
Tomorrow the low will glide past the area….Snow should be ending in the morning hrs, however strong West/Northwest wind will get going….This will lead to areas of blowing and drifting snow throughout the day…We could see winds gust up to 25 to 28 MPH at times….Temps will be falling after the cold front passage….We still will see clouds with off and on flurries through Friday morning…Friday night skies should slowly clear off then temps will drop to around -5 to -2….If skies clear faster those temps may have to be lowered. Sunday we will see WAA kick in this will allow for temps to get back to normal again…Winter is far from being over folks….Don’t let others make you think it is….Winter is still very much alive and kicking it over the area…..
Here is our low pressure track forecast.
Here is our Snowfall forecast…
Long term forecast will be issued later this evening or tomorrow…..
Hint its going to get cold again…See map below…..
Monday, February 11, 2013
Not to many weather problems on tap this week……Some more light snow for today and once again for Wednesday into Thursday….Then we get back into colder air, still not too bad for what it could….If you look at the climate data you will see it’s not uncommon to reach into the -20s…..
At noon skies are cloudy throughout the area, temps middle to upper20s.Winds are gusting up to 26 MPH throughout the area.
***FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THIS WEEK 02/11 THROUGH 02/17***
SFC low pressure is centered over the Northeastern part of the UP of MI….Still some wrap around moisture flowing into the area, this should allow for some light snow off and on…Thinking is if the area sees an one inch we will be lucky…..Any light snow that falls today should end rather fast as the SFC low treks Northeast and looses it grip on the area…..Pressure gradients between the low and a high pressure system pushing towards the area will cause for a rather blustery day…Wind could gust up close to 30 MPH at times, this will lead to some mirror blowing and drifting snow, I would have be more concerned about it if the snow that fell yesterday and early this morning would have been more drier…..The strongest winds will occur over in Western/Southwestern, to Central MN….. Tonight through Tuesday we see a weak area of high pressure move into the area, this will allow for slowly clearing skies, once the skies clear the temps will drop like a rock with the fresh snow….May see temps falling to around 5 or so…..I would have went below zero, however the question is how fast will the clouds move out…..High pressure will insure us of a mostly sunny day tomorrow….That will be short- lived as an clipper storm system sets it eyes on the FA….We will see a return flow/WAA starting up late Tuesday night, this will increase the clouds…..Wednesday the clipper drops South into the area…This will bring another round of snow….Thinking the more snowfall amounts will be found over Northern MN, still with that said we still could sneak out and inch or two….We will have to watch this, as if it drops more South we could see 2 to 3 inches with some areas around the 4 inch mark……Said system moves out fast and colder air will be moving back into the FA on Thursday….Look for falling temps throughout the day Thursday…Cold air will remain in place through the upcoming weekend…..Lows should fall to around -5 with highs ranging from 10 to 15 above…..So all in all not to bad of a work week ahead…..
***LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION 02/18 THROUGH 02/27***
We see another clipper type low moving into the area later on Monday (18th ) This will bring another shot of some light snow to the area from Monday night through Tuesday the 19th ….Meanwhile a storm system could bring heavier snows to Southeastern WI on the 19th….We dry out for the 21st….. We find a storm system getting going over CO/KS area on Thursday the 21st. GFS model keep this storm system way to the South. Seeing way to may spreads in the long range forecasting models to even get to excited about this, as it is so way out in there in time…..In fact with so much disagreement going on it is pointless to even keep going with this forecast discussion….So I won’t!!
Friday, February 8, 2013
Enjoy today and tomorrow, the foot is about to drop on us….This forecast package will talk mainly about the pending major winter storm to plow through the area this late weekend and into Monday……For those who follow me on Facebook know I have been already forecasting this storm…..
***FORECAST DISCUSSION TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT***
The FA will be controlled by a 1028/1029 MB high pressure today through much of the day Saturday…..Meanwhile a major winter storm will be start to pound the Northeastern states……A 998 MB low pressure system off the Coast of NC is forecasted to move Along the Eastern Coast line…This will combined with the Alberta clipper that came through the area the other day…..This will be one of the biggest winter storms the that people have seen along the Eastern CONUS….You ask why am I talking about this, well this could have some impacts on our local weather...If that storm out East slows down at all, this will mean our late weekend system will slow down…..This could do two things for us….1. it could delay our system(highly unlikely) 2. It could give us more snow than what we are forecasting(which could happen)….
Onto the details of our Major winter storm….
One can easily see this monster forming over the central Rockies on the WV satellite imagery…..Now most models have been having a hard time with this system, GFS and NAM were way to far West and North with this system….This morning NAM is still too far West and North…..GFS has started to shift it’s thinking South somewhat yesterday…Even a little more in this morning’s update…..EC has had the same track since this storm system showed up on it…..So this forecast package will set around EC with a little blending of GFS/FLM/GEM….I have thrown out NAM all together, and for the most part GFS, though will use some of the members………1016 MB low pressure over Central CO is forecasted to move into Northern IA and deepen t0 992 MBS, and through Central WI then Moving into Northeastern WI than into the Northeastern part of the UP of MI…..Map below…
With the low forecasted to deepen rather fast this will allow for a windy system which will cause blowing and drifting snows…..Not only from the new snow that is forecasted, but the last few snow events have been a dry fluffy type of snow….So with all that combined look for near to whiteout conditions to form on Sunday….Now places such as Eau Claire may hardly see much in the way of wind, as the low passes nearly overhead…..This system will have a lot of moisture to work with along with lift….There should be enough instabilities to produce some thundersnow North of Eau Claire…..While a few thunderstorms are possible to the South of Eau Claire…Ok moving on, as many are asking, so how much snow will fall and where will it fall…..For this I use the map below…..As of right now kept the real heavy snow over in MN, but the snow in WI be heavy also……This map could change as we may need to shift the heavier snow Eastwards more than currently forecasted…..Main player here is where the deformation band decide to setup, along with any convection cells. Thermal profiles for the most part show enough cold air aloft to all snow….There may be some wintery mix at the start, but this shouldn’t be a problem as the column cools off fast…..This would be North of Chippewa falls…….Wintery mix is forecasted South of there down to Eau Claire, with mainly all rain South of there….As the system pulls of to the Northeast snow will mix in and change over to all snow, however by then the dynamics will have also moved out…So not excepting much snow South of Eau Claire…..Here is our snowfall forecast amounts…..Again we may need to push the heavier snow fall further East wards…….