Friday, December 7, 2012
This forecast discussion will focus on the pending major winter storm to plow the area this weekend.
Models have come in agreement on the track of a major winter storm that is forecasted to hammer the area starting Saturday night and lasting through a good part of Sunday. Still a few minor details to work out, however those really won’t affect the snowfall forecast….Will have to watch where the deformation zone sets up and how long it will sustain it’s self….Dry slot will remain in Southwestern MN and push Eastwards, hence the reason for lesser snow amounts through Southern MN and Southern WI…..
A low pressure system is forecasted to move into Northern NE, then into Southern MN through Central WI then over to the Northwestern part of MI….This track will put the FA in the prime area for heavy snow Saturday night through Sunday….I have all my FA in the range from 4 to 12 inches of snow, all but far Southern/ Southeastern Eau Claire County were 2 to 4 inches will be possible….Also a strong cold front will be blasting through the area on Sunday….This will cause wind to increase to 15 to 20 MPH with gusts up to 25 to 30 MPH….This will lead to blowing and drifting snow, as well as whiteout conditions at times.Temps will also start to drop like a rock in the afternoon…
Travel throughout the FA will become difficult Saturday night into early Sunday morning….Sunday travel conditions could become impossible…..Anyone playing to travel this weekend should listen to NOAA Weather radio or your local News Media for the latest updates….Also make sure you have a winter weather safety kit in your vehicle …Also let someone know your leaving times and time of arrival, along with the path you will be taken…..If you should become stranded stay with your vehicle and call for help….
This could be the first major winter storm to hit the area, and it could be dangerous one…Snow/blowing snow/and dangerous wind chills……
First map Shows the track of the storm system….Second map shows our snowfall forecasted amounts….
Wednesday, December 5, 2012
Looking back at November 2012
Yet another wild month for temperature swings…We started the month on the cool side, but then we warmed by the end of the month…We even had a thunderstorm day…We had 4 snow days….
Before we get to all that….Our snow days will include days of ¼ inch or > of snow….
The day we had thunderstorms was on the 10th.
Snow days are as follows…
6th we saw ½ inch of snow.
12th we saw ½ inch of snow.
22nd we saw 1 inch of snow.
23rd we saw 1 ½ inches of snow.
This gives us a total of 3 ½ inches of snow for November…Remarkably we are only an inch less of snow compared to November 2011.
There were no winter storm watches issued.
There were snow winter storm warnings issued.
There was one winter adv issued that was on the 22nd through 6 AM of the 23rd.
Monday, November 19, 2012
Forecast problems, really none through Thanksgiving Day….Temps take a big dive on Black Friday… Next week snow? We shall find out as we hash it all out. More on this later….
***SHORT/MIDDLE TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)***
Now short-wave moving through the FA, still may see a few light showers though highly unlikely, and will leave wording out of forecast.…Looking at the visible satellite imagery we see clearing skies in Eastern MN this is working its way towards the FA…..So as we head through the day skies should start to slowly clear off…1025 MB high pressure will then take over our weather right through Thanksgiving Day…..The high will slip off to our South/Southeast..This will bring us a return flow….This bring in even warmer air by Wednesday…Looking at the record high for that day here in Rice Lake we see its 69 degrees that was set back in 1990… That looks to be safe as we are forecasting temps in the middle 50s….Big changes coming Thanksgiving evening/night…. We shall see a 1003 MB low pressure system get going Southwestern MT…This is pegged to move in to Northwestern SD/Southwestern ND, then it should move into Northwestern MN by Thursday morning before pushing off into Canada…..This is forecasted to drag a sharp cold front into the area by Thanksgiving afternoon/ early evening…Thanksgiving night look for winds to pickup out of the West/Northwest….With temps falling into the lower 30s…..Black Friday looks to be windy and cold with highs in the middle 30s then we should see them fall in the afternoon…..The upcoming weekend looks colder than what we have seen over the last few days, highs slightly below normal…..We still may have to trim the temps evening more that what we are forecasting….Will worry about that on Wednesday….
***YOUR SHORT/MIDDLE TERM FORECAST***
TODAY… Cloudy to partly cloudy early with some clearing towards this evening. Highs 53 to 54. South/ Southeast winds 5 to 10 MPH
TONIGHT…Partly cloudy to clear skies, lows either side of 30.Winds becoming North/Northwest 5 to 10 MPH
TUESDAY…Mostly sunny. Highs 48 to 52. Winds North/Northwest 5 to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT…Mostly clear, lows 26 to 29.
WEDNESDAY….Sunny, warm highs 54 to 56
WEDNESDAY NIGHT…Partly cloudy, lows around 40
THANKSGIVING DAY…Mostly sunny with some increasing clouds in the afternoon, highs 54 to 55
THURSDAY NIGHT…Partly cloudy, lows around 30s
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY… Partly cloudy with highs in the 30s while lows hang out in the lower to middle 20s.
***LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION MONDAY THE 26TH THROUGH DEC 5***
We start this period on the dry side which is no surprise there….On the 28th we are watching a messy storm system trying to take shape over the four corners area, we will see a warm front starting to push up into Southern MN/WI giving that area all rain after some light morning snow… Up here in our FA we will see over running so look for mainly all snow with a mixture in our Southern areas. The 29th is were all the problem rear their ugly heads….One model takes the storm system way South which would keep the upper Midwest in all snow, while another model takes the storm system through Southern MN towards Northeastern WI, which would keep Southern MN and Central and Southern WI all rain…Points North of a line from the Twin Cities MN to Eau Claire WI will see all snow….the 30th through Dec 5th looks to be dry…Here we go again on model shows a big warm up while another model keeps us in the cold air….Been a lot flip flopping going…So Am not going to worry about the possible snowstorm/Am not going to worry about if temps remain cold or warm up, until I see models come closer in agreement.
Monday, November 12, 2012
This past weekend was a wild ride in the weather department….Thunderstorms Saturday morning with hail, strong winds, and heavy rain…Big wave action up on Lake Superior…There was two week tornadoes reported around the Twin Cities Metro area Saturday evening….Then snow on Sunday, and also today….Here are a few pictures, First two are from the hail storm...This was taken in Southern Washburn County...US HWY 53 was covered with hail for a mile an half.
The next two pictures are from the gale event on Lake Superior...For more pictures see the Lake Superior blog...Link is off to the right....
Thursday, November 8, 2012
Forecast problems…..Really not to many….Rain for the weekend still on track with some snow for Sunday…Problems show up next weekend more on that later….
*** SHORT TERM/ MIDDLE TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION***
A weak cold front is slowly working through MN about all this will do is cause a few more clouds tonight, along with winds switching to the North then Northeast…..a 996 low pressure will track toward s Southwest MN then up to head of Lake Superior then it will slowly weaken to around 1000 as it work North of Lake Superior, this will keep the FA in the warm sector for Saturday…Showers and thunderstorms will become likely Saturday afternoon…Temps will be in the middle 50s, thought about go higher, however with the cloud cover forecasted to be in place feel temps won’t get out of control….Winds are forecasted to pick up to around 10 to 15 MPH…..Will keep showers and thunderstorms going through much of the evening, however will end thunderstorms after 1 AM…..Sunday looks to be cooler with falling temps…..Any rain showers left will chance over to all light snow by the late morning or early afternoon…..The rest of this period will star colder temps with mostly cloudy skies with a few days under partly cloudy skies…..No big storms through Thursday of next week…Map below shows the track of the low pressure through the weekend.
***YOUR SHORT/MIDDLE TERM FORECAST***
Tonight…..Partly cloudy ..Low around 40…Winds Becoming North/Northeast around 5 MPH.
Friday…. Mostly cloudy…Highs middle to upper 40s Winds Northeast around 5 to 10 MPH.
Friday night…. Cloudy with drizzle and areas of fog, lows around 40. Winds East around 10 MPH.
Saturday… Cloudy, then showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Highs 55 to 58…Winds South/Southeast 10 to 15 MPH.
Saturday night….Showers and thunderstorms before 1 AM then showers after 1 AM. Lows 40 to 45.
Sunday…. Rain showers mixing and changing to all snow late in the morning. Highs falling from the middle 40s..
Sunday night…Partly cloudy. Lows 20 to 25.
Monday and Monday night… Cloudy highs around 30. Lows 18 to 22.
Tuesday and Tuesday night. Partly cloudy highs 30 to 35, lows 17 to 22.
Wednesday through Thursday… Partly cloudy highs in the upper 30 to lower 40s, while lows in the lower to middle 20s…
***LONG TERM FORECAST FRIDAY THE 16TH THROUGH SATURDAY THE 24***
We will be watching a storm system forming over the TX/OK pan handle..This is forecasted to track toward the Northeast to around the Northeast NE by the 17th then just North of Eau Claire WI later on the 17th.This is going to put the FA under rain in my Southern Counties/ A mixture of rain and snow through my Central areas with all snow in my Northern areas….A cold front will blast through and chance the mixture/rain to all light snow except in my far Southern areas Sat 17 night..Thinking my Southern areas will remain all rain, by time the colder air makes it down there the moisture will have push well Northeast by then…Sunday 18 Monday the 18th looks to be dry….The 20th early morning hours of the 21 snow in my central and Northern areas with rain in my Southern areas maybe some flurries down there before ending… The 22 through look to be dry…..
Temps will be warmer in my Southern areas and colder in my Northern areas….This is highly dependant on if we get a good snow cover in my Northern areas….
Tuesday, November 6, 2012
Here is the link to the video I shot this morning....That time of year were I will have to start to use hand warmers around the lens of both cameras again,as you can see had dew/fog form on my lens this morning....
As stated in the short term forecast....Snow has been ending across the area....Snowfall amount range from a trace to 1/2 inch of snow in my Northern areas, while my Southern areas have been seeing some light snow mixed in from time to time with the rain.....Here are some pictures....Will post a link to the video once it's ready....
Wednesday, October 31, 2012
No forecast problem seen right through Friday, however Friday night through Sunday morning we will have to deal with rain and snow….More on this later…..
As of 1 PM all station are reporting sunny skies, with temps in the lower 40s…Winds range from 7 to 12 MPH from the North/Northwest.
***SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION (REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)***
First off, looking at the satellite imagery We see that the remains of Sandy is slowly beginning to lose its grip on WI..As we see clouds have pushed backed into Eastern WI, However our local weather still remains locked for the rest of today….Tonight we should see a short wave drop into the area, clouds from this system already streaming into Northwestern and Western MN into the Central parts…..Am not expecting nothing more than a few clouds from this system tonight…Not a lot of moisture to work with, plus with all the dry air around, what little moisture that is available will go into cloud production…..After tonight look for another sunny to partly cloudy days…Temps will remain below normal through this period….
Confidence level very high.
***YOUR SHORT TERM FORECAST***
REST OF TODAY… Sunny some high clouds, highs in the lower 40s. North/Northwest winds will become lighter to around 5 to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT…Party to mostly cloudy, lows in the upper 20s winds becoming light from the North/Northwest.
THURSDAY… Mostly sunny, highs lower to middle 40s. North/Northwest winds from 5 to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT… Mostly clear lows lower 20s to middle 20s.
FRIDAY….Partly cloudy skies, with increasing clouds in the afternoon. Highs Lower 40s.
***MIDDLE TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)***
Low pressure system over the Northwestern Pacific Coastal area shows up rather nicely on the satellite….This will be our weather maker for Friday night through Sunday morning…..The low is forecasted to move into Northeastern part of WY by around 2100 Nov 1 That low is forecasted to Stay well South of the FA, however another area of low pressure is forecasted to form over Eastern MT/Western ND…This will push Southeast into Southeastern MN/Southwestern WI…This track would keep the best chance of snow North of a Twin Cities to Eau Claire line, meanwhile South of that line should remain all rain…May be some very light snow mixing in at the end in my Southern Counties, however don’t bet the farm on it….GFS model is showing from 2 to 4 inches of snow , with the higher amounts in Parts of Northern/Eastern Barron County along with parts of Western into Central Rusk County and point North….For now I will not running with any snow accumulations in the forecast, since there is still some model arguments going on with that….Looks like the best likely hood for snow will be Friday night into Late Saturday morning…Then just some flurries/light snow after that, however we will have to watch Saturday night/Sunday as an upper level low scoots into the area, this could bring a another chance of snow…Still too many things up in the air on that…..So for now I will end the snow Sunday morning/keeping most of Sunday on the dry side…..Will also only run with flurries/light snow….For Monday and Tuesday Look for Partly cloudy skies…Temps will be tricky, depending on if we get any snow accumulation…If we do temps will hold in the 30s to maybe as highs as the lower 40s…If we don’t temps could be as warn as the middle 40s to upper 40s for highs, while lows would remain in the 30s…..For now I will run with a average…Which will put temps below model guidance’s….
Confidence level mod to high, then falling to low by Monday and Tuesday.
***YOUR MIDDLE TERM FORECAST***
FRIDAY NIGHT… Cloudy with rain/snow mix changing to all snow. Lows in the lower 30s falling into the middle to upper 20s.
SATURDAY… Cloudy with snow in the morning, then light snow/flurries in the afternoon…Highs middle 30s.
SATURDAY NIGHT… Cloudy with a chance of light snow/flurries, lows in the upper 20s.
SUNDAY… Light snow/flurries ending in the morning, Then just a chance of flurries in the afternoon. Highs middle 30s.
SUNDAY NIGHT… Mostly cloudy, lows in the middle to upper 20s.
MONDAY/MODNAY NIGHT…. Partly sunny highs lower 40s, clear partly cloudy Monday night, lows in middle 20s.
TUESDAY/TUEDAY night… Partly sunny highs middle 30s to upper 30s. Partly cloudy Tuesday night, lows in the middle 20s.
***LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION WED NOV 7TH THROUGH FRIDAY NOV 16TH ***
We will start this period on the dry side the dry weather should hold through the 9th. We will see a storm system digging into the Northeastern parts of CO this is forecasted to push a warm front through the area...We should see some rain showers as the 540 thickness line is well to our North in Canada. This low is forecasted to move into North Central NE by the 10th This will keep rain showers going right through the 10th by the 11th we see a cold front move through the area this will cause the rain to mix with and change over to all snow mainly over my Central and Northern areas, while my Southern areas see plain old rain. The 13 we still could see some light snow/flurries from wrap around moisture drops that drops South...The 14th looks to be dry, however that is short lived as another storm system takes shape over the Northeastern par of the TX Panhandle, along with a trough over the FA…Look for more snow to break out across the FA maybe even into my Southern area as well… By the 16th low pressure is forecasted to move in the Southern MO this will push warmer air back into my Southern areas so look for just rain down there, with a rain/snow mixture over my Central areas, while all snow in my Northern areas…
Temps through this time frame should be right around normal, no big warm-ups no big cold snaps….
By all means this long term forecast is not set in stone, long range models not evening close to each other....So with that said I'm sure this forecast will be changing within time.
Very low confidence level.
Once again it’s that time to take a look back in time….This time we are looking back at October 2012….
For the most part October was near normal for temps in Barron County….
We had 5 thunderstorm days…There were no severe thunderstorm watches or warnings issued for Barron County.
Days we had thunderstorms are as follows…. 13th , 16th, 22nd, 24th, and the 25th.
We had no severe thunderstorm days.
So the total of thunderstorm days is 5.
We had 2 snow days….A trace or >
Days we saw snow falling from the sky are as follows.
9th, and 26th.
How does this compare to last October? Time to find out.
Last year we only had 2 thunderstorm days….
We only had 1 day with snow falling from the sky…. We had less than a trace of snow.
Last October was cooler than normal….
What will November hold for us? Time will tell….
Notice this information is only for Barron County.
Friday, October 19, 2012
This is our winter forecast.....This will be the average through the whole winter….Let’s look at the temp forecast first…We are forecasting near normal temps throughout all of Northeastern MN into a small part of Eastern MN, all of WI, all of MI, parts of Northern IL, IN and OH.(lime shaded areas) Meantime we are forecasting warmer than normal temps for ND,SD,NE IA, small part of IL, small part of Southwestern WI, Southeastern MN up through Western MN….(red shaded areas)
Time to look at the snowfall forecast….
We are forecasting way below normal snowfall for all of MN, Eastern ND,SD Eastern NE, all of IA, All of Southwestern WI into part of Southeastern WI, and just about all of IL….(orange shaded area) We are forecasting near to slightly above normal snowfall for all of MI Eastern IL, Northern IN, OH, most of WI, Most of ND,SD, NE.(blue shaded area)….
Once again this is the winter’s average….Maps below.....
Thursday, October 18, 2012
Forecast concerns…… Will be the off and on light rain showers/drizzle/and fog through Friday night…..Then how warm to go with temps this weekend…..Is winter coming in the long range? It looks like it….
At 10:00 PM skies are cloudy with areas of fog throughout the FA….Temps range from the upper 30s to middle 40s under calm winds….
***SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION***
A very strong SFC/Upper level low is still forecasted to keep spinning over MN through Friday, it will start to get licked off to the Southeast of the FA down into Southeastern WI by 23Z Friday…..This will insure the FA will stay under the clouds/drizzle.fog/and light rain showers through this time frame…..Winds will not be a problem as they are forecasted to remain over parts of Western MN and ND/SD along with NE and Western IA….
For Saturday we will a 1010 MB high pressure system building into the area…This will set the stage for a very nice weekend….Saturday highs will depend how fast the fog and low clouds burn off…..Thinking as of right now to run with middle to upper 50s throughout the whole FA…..Sunday will be the warmest day…Highs should shoot up into the middle to upper 60s Central and Northern areas, while my Southern areas should reach the upper 60s to lower 70s…Lows through this time frame will range from the upper 30s to lower 40s…
***MIDDLE TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION***
We will see another system move into the area starting Sunday night….Clouds will begin to increase….Monday through Wednesday we will see off and on showers…..Highs will remain in the upper 50s to lower 60s….While lows in the 40s…..To hard to time the chances of rain, so will just have rain showers everyday throughout this time frame….
***LONG TERM FORECAST THURSDAY 25TH THROUGH SATURDAY NOV 3RD ***
We see a 1005 MB low pressure system getting its act together over Eastern CO…Later in the day the low deepens to around 1002 as it pushes towards Southeastern SD…The low is forecasted to deepen further more as it pushes to the head of Lake Superior…Should see the low around 994 MBS..The low then deepens to around 980 MBS as it pushes into the Western UP of MI…..This will create strong Northeasterly winds across the FA..Will also see rain showers across the FA could see one or two thunderstorms on Friday as well…..Friday night as the low pulls off to the Northeast it is forecasted to drag a cold front through the area….Some light rain should mix with and change over to all light now Friday night at the 540 line is forecasted to move South of the FA…Saturday the 27th we see a break in the action before the next system moves toward the area….Late Saturday night we could see some light snow moving into the area this will hold right through Sunday…..Monday through Tuesday looks to be dry but cooler than normal…..Next chance of snow comes back into play for the 31st The rest of this time frame should remain dry……
So to sum it the long range forecast temps will be cold with off and chances of snow! No real warm air seen in the long range….Could winter be starting and staying? Time will tell….
Our winter forecast will be out tomorrow!! If you love snow I think you will love this forecast!!!!
Friday, October 5, 2012
Looking back at September 2012…..We saw all kinds of weather this month….Severe thunderstorms to snow….Time to unfold the details to crazy month…..
This month started off on the warm side…..Then temps took a dive on the 3rd week of this month, only to warm backup once again….
Time to look at the thunderstorm days….
There was 1 severe thunderstorm day…
There was 3 thunderstorm days…
Total thunderstorms days was 4…
Non severe thunderstorm days…..3rd, 8th, and the 19th.
Severe thunderstorm days…. 4th.
Despite the rainfall, we needed up drier than normal this month….
Part of the area saw the growing season end on the 18th ….The rest of the area saw their growing season end on the 23rd.
Some of the area saw their first snowflakes and snowfall of the season…..This did happen while it was still summer…..
This happened during the hours of the 21st and early morning hours of 22nd…..Some areas did see from ¼ to almost as much as 2.00 inches of snow….
So a crazy month it was…..
Back in 2011…We had 4 thunderstorm days…..No severe thunderstorm days….No snowfall….
What will October hold for us? Time shall tell…..
This will be our last fall color update, as we are now past peak....Peak happened the weekend of 09/28/2012...This ran through Sunday into Monday.....With the winds on 10/04 and today the 5th...A lot of leaves are now gone.....Pictures below are from this past weekend......We hope you enjoyed the updates throughout this fall, as much as we enjoyed doing this......
Friday, September 28, 2012
Below you find a link to the fog.....This time of year is really a cool time....When we get cold night time/ealry morning temps.....The water temps is warmer....So when this warmer air rises it meets up with the cold air temps to produce fog on and near the lakes...Here is a picture.
Ok here is the link to the video....
Ok here is the link to the video....
Sunday, September 23, 2012
Saturday, September 22, 2012
Yes it can snow is summer, and it did last night.....A strong cold front plowed through the FA with winds up ro 40 -45 MPH, along with rain....Didn't take long for temps to fall from the 50s into the 30s...We saw the rain mixing with snow before changing to all snow, any were from 0.25 to as much as an inch as falling, though it's all melted now.....Fall starts today at 9:49 AM this morning...So those who say it can't snow in the summer are wrong.....
Friday, September 21, 2012
Thursday, September 20, 2012
Yesterday afternoon parts of the area was hit with strong thunderstorms.....Lots of small hail, and some areas had very strong winds....I found both! Here is a video of the strong winds as the thunderstorm gusted out.....
Tuesday, September 18, 2012
Parts of the area saw the growing season come to an end...Seems like any areas in Northern Barron County and Rusk County....North of a Cumberland to Rice Lake to Ladysmith line....South of this line there was patchy frost...Not a killing frost...
Killing frost last night….Areas that see the killing frost are as follows….
Official temp at the Rice Lake airport was 32 degrees it held at 32 degrees for 6 hours.
Over in Rusk County temps at the Rusk County airport was 32 degrees it held there for 3 hours…
The growing season has ended for Northern Barron County, Northern Rusk County…..
Cumberland’s airport saw 34 degrees for 3 hours…..(Not a killing frost)
Temps in Polk County stayed above freezing.(no killing frost)
Here is the map to show you were the growing season has ended this morning…
Thursday, September 13, 2012
Despite all the negativity I have read about the hot summer affecting the fall colors…Well let’s just say this pictures don’t lie, and we aren’t even close to peak yet….Though the change over started about two weeks earlier..Were the colors are at now…This should be like toward the end of this month…..I think this year so far has been better than last year…..See for yourself! Forecast found below....