Monday, November 19, 2012
Forecast problems, really none through Thanksgiving Day….Temps take a big dive on Black Friday… Next week snow? We shall find out as we hash it all out. More on this later….
***SHORT/MIDDLE TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)***
Now short-wave moving through the FA, still may see a few light showers though highly unlikely, and will leave wording out of forecast.…Looking at the visible satellite imagery we see clearing skies in Eastern MN this is working its way towards the FA…..So as we head through the day skies should start to slowly clear off…1025 MB high pressure will then take over our weather right through Thanksgiving Day…..The high will slip off to our South/Southeast..This will bring us a return flow….This bring in even warmer air by Wednesday…Looking at the record high for that day here in Rice Lake we see its 69 degrees that was set back in 1990… That looks to be safe as we are forecasting temps in the middle 50s….Big changes coming Thanksgiving evening/night…. We shall see a 1003 MB low pressure system get going Southwestern MT…This is pegged to move in to Northwestern SD/Southwestern ND, then it should move into Northwestern MN by Thursday morning before pushing off into Canada…..This is forecasted to drag a sharp cold front into the area by Thanksgiving afternoon/ early evening…Thanksgiving night look for winds to pickup out of the West/Northwest….With temps falling into the lower 30s…..Black Friday looks to be windy and cold with highs in the middle 30s then we should see them fall in the afternoon…..The upcoming weekend looks colder than what we have seen over the last few days, highs slightly below normal…..We still may have to trim the temps evening more that what we are forecasting….Will worry about that on Wednesday….
***YOUR SHORT/MIDDLE TERM FORECAST***
TODAY… Cloudy to partly cloudy early with some clearing towards this evening. Highs 53 to 54. South/ Southeast winds 5 to 10 MPH
TONIGHT…Partly cloudy to clear skies, lows either side of 30.Winds becoming North/Northwest 5 to 10 MPH
TUESDAY…Mostly sunny. Highs 48 to 52. Winds North/Northwest 5 to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT…Mostly clear, lows 26 to 29.
WEDNESDAY….Sunny, warm highs 54 to 56
WEDNESDAY NIGHT…Partly cloudy, lows around 40
THANKSGIVING DAY…Mostly sunny with some increasing clouds in the afternoon, highs 54 to 55
THURSDAY NIGHT…Partly cloudy, lows around 30s
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY… Partly cloudy with highs in the 30s while lows hang out in the lower to middle 20s.
***LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION MONDAY THE 26TH THROUGH DEC 5***
We start this period on the dry side which is no surprise there….On the 28th we are watching a messy storm system trying to take shape over the four corners area, we will see a warm front starting to push up into Southern MN/WI giving that area all rain after some light morning snow… Up here in our FA we will see over running so look for mainly all snow with a mixture in our Southern areas. The 29th is were all the problem rear their ugly heads….One model takes the storm system way South which would keep the upper Midwest in all snow, while another model takes the storm system through Southern MN towards Northeastern WI, which would keep Southern MN and Central and Southern WI all rain…Points North of a line from the Twin Cities MN to Eau Claire WI will see all snow….the 30th through Dec 5th looks to be dry…Here we go again on model shows a big warm up while another model keeps us in the cold air….Been a lot flip flopping going…So Am not going to worry about the possible snowstorm/Am not going to worry about if temps remain cold or warm up, until I see models come closer in agreement.
Monday, November 12, 2012
This past weekend was a wild ride in the weather department….Thunderstorms Saturday morning with hail, strong winds, and heavy rain…Big wave action up on Lake Superior…There was two week tornadoes reported around the Twin Cities Metro area Saturday evening….Then snow on Sunday, and also today….Here are a few pictures, First two are from the hail storm...This was taken in Southern Washburn County...US HWY 53 was covered with hail for a mile an half.
The next two pictures are from the gale event on Lake Superior...For more pictures see the Lake Superior blog...Link is off to the right....
Thursday, November 8, 2012
Forecast problems…..Really not to many….Rain for the weekend still on track with some snow for Sunday…Problems show up next weekend more on that later….
*** SHORT TERM/ MIDDLE TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION***
A weak cold front is slowly working through MN about all this will do is cause a few more clouds tonight, along with winds switching to the North then Northeast…..a 996 low pressure will track toward s Southwest MN then up to head of Lake Superior then it will slowly weaken to around 1000 as it work North of Lake Superior, this will keep the FA in the warm sector for Saturday…Showers and thunderstorms will become likely Saturday afternoon…Temps will be in the middle 50s, thought about go higher, however with the cloud cover forecasted to be in place feel temps won’t get out of control….Winds are forecasted to pick up to around 10 to 15 MPH…..Will keep showers and thunderstorms going through much of the evening, however will end thunderstorms after 1 AM…..Sunday looks to be cooler with falling temps…..Any rain showers left will chance over to all light snow by the late morning or early afternoon…..The rest of this period will star colder temps with mostly cloudy skies with a few days under partly cloudy skies…..No big storms through Thursday of next week…Map below shows the track of the low pressure through the weekend.
***YOUR SHORT/MIDDLE TERM FORECAST***
Tonight…..Partly cloudy ..Low around 40…Winds Becoming North/Northeast around 5 MPH.
Friday…. Mostly cloudy…Highs middle to upper 40s Winds Northeast around 5 to 10 MPH.
Friday night…. Cloudy with drizzle and areas of fog, lows around 40. Winds East around 10 MPH.
Saturday… Cloudy, then showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Highs 55 to 58…Winds South/Southeast 10 to 15 MPH.
Saturday night….Showers and thunderstorms before 1 AM then showers after 1 AM. Lows 40 to 45.
Sunday…. Rain showers mixing and changing to all snow late in the morning. Highs falling from the middle 40s..
Sunday night…Partly cloudy. Lows 20 to 25.
Monday and Monday night… Cloudy highs around 30. Lows 18 to 22.
Tuesday and Tuesday night. Partly cloudy highs 30 to 35, lows 17 to 22.
Wednesday through Thursday… Partly cloudy highs in the upper 30 to lower 40s, while lows in the lower to middle 20s…
***LONG TERM FORECAST FRIDAY THE 16TH THROUGH SATURDAY THE 24***
We will be watching a storm system forming over the TX/OK pan handle..This is forecasted to track toward the Northeast to around the Northeast NE by the 17th then just North of Eau Claire WI later on the 17th.This is going to put the FA under rain in my Southern Counties/ A mixture of rain and snow through my Central areas with all snow in my Northern areas….A cold front will blast through and chance the mixture/rain to all light snow except in my far Southern areas Sat 17 night..Thinking my Southern areas will remain all rain, by time the colder air makes it down there the moisture will have push well Northeast by then…Sunday 18 Monday the 18th looks to be dry….The 20th early morning hours of the 21 snow in my central and Northern areas with rain in my Southern areas maybe some flurries down there before ending… The 22 through look to be dry…..
Temps will be warmer in my Southern areas and colder in my Northern areas….This is highly dependant on if we get a good snow cover in my Northern areas….
Tuesday, November 6, 2012
Here is the link to the video I shot this morning....That time of year were I will have to start to use hand warmers around the lens of both cameras again,as you can see had dew/fog form on my lens this morning....
As stated in the short term forecast....Snow has been ending across the area....Snowfall amount range from a trace to 1/2 inch of snow in my Northern areas, while my Southern areas have been seeing some light snow mixed in from time to time with the rain.....Here are some pictures....Will post a link to the video once it's ready....