Wednesday, November 30, 2011

Snowfall forecast.

This is our snowfall forecast for this upcoming weekend...This could change,but based on model data this is how it looks as of right now....NAM and ECWMF model are in good agreement on the track of the storm system, meanwhile GFS is way to South and Southeast....Would think we should see GFS get on track with the other models by Friday....Map made from a program,The program still has a few bugs to workout yet.

Forecast for Western/Northwestern WI

Light snow likely for tonight and tomorrow morning…Than heavy snow possible for the weekend mainly Saturday and Saturday night..Then Arctic air later in the short and middle term, along with the long term forecast…Which will not be issued today do to time.

At 10 AM Skies are partly cloudy to cloudy…Temps range from the upper 20s to lower 30s…New Richmond is reporting 34 that may be wrong when looking at other stations….Winds for the most part are light from the South/Southwest

This morning’s SFC weather charts..We see an areas of high pressure from TX up to the Great Lakes…A cold front is in Northwestern MN through Central ND….A weak area of low pressure is centered North of central MT a cold front extends South/Southwest from said low into Northern CA…By tonight the cold front is forecasted to pushing through the area. A low pressure system is forecasted to move along the frontal boundary From Mt into Western MN than the Northern Twin Cities through Southern Polk Barron than over to Door County….System is rather weak, however there shall be enough lift and moisture to kick out some light snows…. Looks like 1 to 3 inches will be possible mainly over my Central and Northern areas, mainly North of the storm track with 1 an inch possible over my Southern areas…Far Southern areas could see ½ of snow.
We get a break in the action for Late Thursday through Friday…Now onto the possible winter storm for the weekend….
ATTM there are still many things that could go wrong with this system….On Friday we will see the area basking under a high pressure…A strong cold front is forecasted to over Central MT back into ID and OR..We will find a storm system forming over the TX panhandle…Cold front is forecasted to move into and through the area on Saturday, this does slow up some as it gets just East of the FA…This will allow for the storm system to our Southwest to ride Northeast along the frontal boundary… This will allow for a band of heavy snow form South Central MN in the FA..Moisture shouldn’t be a problem as this storm system will drag up plenty from the GOM….Cold air will be in place, however there may be some issues as far as all snow or rain and snow mix in my far Southern FA before it changes to all snow…This could hold amounts down in those areas…..Now if the push of cold air moves faster than forecasted this would throw the cold front into Eastern WI, hence the low would be way to the East…If this pans out the Central and Eastern WI would see the heavy snows… Still tons to work out on this system….For now am going to run with first track of this system….Either way this system will be a fast hitter…Sunday we should see mostly sunny skies before a clipper like system brings in a shot a light snow, and more cold air.


TODAY. Increasing clouds. Highs 30 to 35

TONIGHT. Cloudy snow likely. Snow accumulations from half to an inch possible. Lows 27 to 30.

THURSDAY. Cloudy snow likely. Snow accumulations one to two inches possible in the morning. Highs around 30.

THURSDAY NIGHT. Clear lows 10 to 15

FRIDAY. Sunny highs 24 to 27

FRIDAY NIGHT. Clear lows 20 to 25

SATURDAY. Cloudy a chance of snow, highs around 30

SATURDAY NIGHT. Cloudy a chance of snow, lows around 20

SUNDAY. Partly sunny highs 20 to 25

SUNDAY NIGHT. Partly cloudy than mostly cloudy with a chance of snow lows 10 to 15

MONDAY. Cloudy with a chance of snow highs 20 to 25

MONDAY NIGHT. Mostly cloudy cold lows 5 to 10

TUESDAY. Partly cloudy highs 17 to 22


Thursday, November 24, 2011

Thanksgiving weekend forecast for Western/Northwestern WI

Forecast will stand for now. Previous forecaster did make a few changes…..Will leave them stand….We still have to keep an eye on Saturday’s storm system. If colder air can rush in soon enough, the rain still could mix with a changeover to all snow on Saturday…… If indeed this does happen a few inches of snow will be possible….

Today... will be a very nice day for the FA….. Highs today under sunny skies will range from the upper 40s North to upper 40s to around 50 in my Central FA..Lower to middle 50s in my Southern FA..

Tonight... Will star Partly cloudy skies throughout much of the FA….. Fog will be again possible up North… Lows tonight throttle back into the middle to lower 30s area wide…..

Friday... should be a cloudy day hence have lowered temps to range from the upper 40s North and Central to the lower 50s South….

Friday night... Rain moves into the area….Look for rain to be mixed with snow in our Northern parts of the FA, while plain old rain for my Central and Southern areas… Lows middle 30s up North, upper 30s Central. Lower 40s South.

Saturday.... Rain for most of the area….Will run with rain and snow North changing to all snow…. Will keep the Central and Southern area rain…May update this to add rain/snow mix in my Central area for Saturday as well….

Saturday night…. Snow North…Rain/snow mix than changing over to all snow Central…. Rain South with some mix of snow before ending…..

Sunday…. Looks to cooler under sunny skies Highs lower to middle 30s for the whole FA……

Note….Extend forecast will have major updates to it tomorrow…..

Temps at 9 AM range from the upper 30s to lower 40s….

Happy Thanksgiving everyone…..

Wednesday, November 23, 2011

Tweaked forecast some

Decided to tweak ongoing forecast. Main tweaking was done for Saturday. Will leave everything else intact.
So here is the latest thinking. Do to latest model runs I have decided to push the rain changing to snow to Saturday night. This system does not apear to be a big deal. Little or no snow accumulations are forecasted as of now.Colder air is forecasted to mix in a little to late with this system.System did look better on past computer runs,that flizzed out. So the Holiday travel plans should be in good shape with no major problems. Down in our far Southern forecast area the rain may not even mix with snow before it ends.Still think Dirk will have to fine tune all this tomorrow or Friday.

The forecast for Western/Northwestern WI.

Forecast has been tweaked some.See Saturday and Saturday night. I did leave the forecast disucussion as is, see about for updated forecast short term forecast discussion for this weekend. Paul

Forecast problems…. Will be the cloud cover and areas of fog…Vis satellite shows most of the FA locked under clouds and fog…Some clearing noted over Burnett County, however more cloud back in MN… Thinking is to run with mostly cloudy to pc cloudy skies.. May be a storm system to impact the area for Friday night through Saturday evening…More detail on this below.


At 10 AM skies are cloudy at all stations with some fog being reported as well….Temps range from the middle 30s to upper 30s….Winds range from 7 to 13 MPH out of the Southwest….


Looking at the SFC charts we find a 1001 MB low pressure over Southern part of NY State with a cold front extending down into the FL panhandle than out into the GOM….This system should pose problems for parts of VT,NH, and ME for Thanksgiving day…Looks like that area could see 4 to 8 inches of snow…..Meanwhile a ridge of high pressure is still locked in place through the upper Midwest down into the Central and Southwestern States…..Large storm system is found over the Northwest Pacific Coast states….Fog and low clouds for today as we talked about earlier…..Still have a gut feeling that we should run with Mostly cloudy skies as we have a inversion in place the warm air aloft and the melting snow pack has been keeping us cloudy and foggy the last few days….Really see no reason why this won’t stay the rule for today…Models really aren’t doing so great with this….Thanksgiving day Am still banking on sunny skies…This will allow temps to reach into the middle to upper 40s throughout the FA…Most of the snowpack should be depleted by then…Record highs for Thanksgiving day is 55…That record should remain safe…There could be a few 50 degree readings in my far Southern parts of the FA….Cold front starts to drop into the FA for Friday so with more clouds around will lower temps from Thanksgiving day…Will run with lower 40s to middle 40s….Late Friday night and Saturday….Low pressure is forecasted to form along the cold front over the Twin Cities to EAU Claire…..Than is forecasted to move towards the Northeast….Will run with plain old rain for Friday night…Then mix and change the rain to all snow for Saturday for my Central and Northern areas…Will stay all rain in my Southern areas until late Saturday night then should see the rain mix with snow down there….There could be several inches of snow….Thinking is should be like last weekend’s storm system….Still to early to know for sure, model are in good agreement on it, some timing issues and the track is still a little unclear….If this pans out as the models are forecasting attm this system could have an impact of travel plans back home…We will need to watch this very close……Will not chance the forecast for Tuesday as models not have a good agreement of this next system see long term discussion for info on this….

WEDNESDAY. Mostly cloudy may see some breaks from time to time…Highs 38 to 43

WEDNESDAY NIGHT. Areas of fog partly cloudy.. Lows 28 to 34

THANKSGIVING DAY. Sunny highs 44 to 48

THURSDAY NIGHT. Increasing clouds, lows 30 to 35

FRIDAY. Cloudy. Highs 40 to 45

FRIDAY NIGHT. Cloudy a chance of rain. Lows 34 to 38

SATURDAY. Cloudy with a chance of rain. Highs 35 to 40 than falling.

SATURDAY NIGHT. Cloudy a chance of rain mixing with and changing over to light snow,Little or no accumulations. lows 25 to 30

SUNDAY. PC highs 30 to 35.

MONDAY. Partly cloudy 30 to 35.

MONDAY NIGHT. Cloudy with a chance of snow lows 23 to 26

TUESDAY. Cloudy chance of snow. 28 to 30

TUESDAY NIGHT. Chance of snow lows 20 to 25


Models have been all over the place on a low pressure system that is forecasted to form in MS…ECMWF moves the low Northeast.GFS on the other hand forms the low a little more to East/Northeast then moves the low to OH them retrogrades it back to the Northwest into Lake MI, GEM is more in the line of thinking as ECMWF…..So with this being so unclear we have decided not to change the first part of the long term forecast…Will give it a few more days to decide if we need to make changes…..Will keep a slight chance of snow going from the 1ts through the 4th as a cold front is swept into the areas from a deepening low pressure system to our North up in Canada. We may need to bump up the temps a little, again we won’t do that just yet as this is the first time one model is showing temps to be warmer, while the others keep the temps forecasted below the same...


30th. Snow ending highs 25 to 30 lows 15 to 20

1st . Slight chance of Snow highs 20 to 25 lows 15 to 20

2nd. Slight chance of Snow highs 20 to 25 lows 1o to 15

3rd Snow highs 20 to 25 lows 10 to 15

4th . Slight chance of snow highs 20 to 25 lows 8 to 13

5th.. Dry highs 15 to 20 lows 5 to 10

6th. Dry highs 15 to 20 lows 10 15

7th .Dry highs 15 to 20 lows 5 to 10

8th. Dry 20 to 25 lows 10 to 15

9th . Dry 20 to 25 lows 10 to 15.

Monday, November 21, 2011

The forecast for Western and Northwestern WI

Like the warm fall we have been having overall? Then you will like this forecast, snow lovers hang in there. Overall temps will be above normal with little rain or snow this week….Next shot of rain comes in about Friday, more details on that below…

At noon skies are cloudy through most of the FA Ashland is reporting sunny skies as of now..Satellite does show this….Temps are in the middle 20s to lower 30s…..Winds are light from the S/SW.
Here is the SFC map.

Ridge of high pressure is sitting over head, however it remains cloudy as an inversion has also setup overhead….Should see more clouds than sun today….Will keep clouds in forecast for tonight…Temps going to be tricky where there is a snowpack temps will remain cooler than other areas…Temps should remain in check with tonight’s clouds however if any breaks do happen over the snowpack areas temps could dive into the teens…For now will run with upper teens to lower 20s. That should cover the bases rather well…..Tomorrow will run with partly cloudy skies to account for the Southern system as it may try to spread more clouds into the area RH fields off the 850 and 700 MB charts shows this rather well. Tuesday we see a and weak low pressure system over Canada this will start to drag a warm front towards and through the FA Wednesday….This will allow for temps to warn into the 40s could see some 50 degree reading in my far Southern areas…Looks like the record highs will be safe!. Thanksgiving day looks to be warm and sunny….Next chance of precip come in for Friday as a cold front slowly starts to work this way. Really not to thrilled about rain or snow chances attm…Temps will take a dive…. So to recap temps will be above norms this week and through the Thanksgiving weekend…Slight chance of precip…Holiday travel plans around the area look to be in good shape with no big rain or snow makers…..


TODAY. Cloudy highs 30 to 35

TONIGHT. Cloudy lows 19 to 22

TUESDAY. PC highs 30 to 32.

TUESDAY NIGHT. Clear lows 19 to 21

WEDNESDAY. Sunny highs 35 to 40

WEDNESDAY NIGHT. Clear lows 24 to 28

THANKSGIVING DAY. Sunny highs 28 to 43

THURSDAY NIGHT. Increasing clouds, lows 30 to 35

FRIDAY. Cloudy with a slight chance of rain showers. Highs 40 to 45

FRIDAY NIGHT. Cloudy slight chance of rain mixing with some snow. Lows 30 to 35

SATURDAY. Cloudy rain mixing with and changing to light snow showers. Highs 35 to 40 than falling.

SATURDAY NIGHT. Cloudy light snow showers ending, lows 23 to 27

SUNDAY. PC highs 30 to 35.


Confidence levels are really low if the precip forecast….Levels are a little better in the temps…..Long range models are showing a low pressure system to take hold of the FA starting Monday the 28th and traveling around upper Midwest through the 3rd of Dec…. Models want to cutoff this low…If this does indeed happen we could be looking a long period of snow…Temps are forecasted to fall well below norms through the long range…..Most likely this long term forecasted will be updated….


28th. Rain/snow changing to all snow…Highs 30 to 35 lows 20 to 25

29th snow may be mixed with rain off and on…Highs 30 to 35 lows 20 to 25

30th. Snow highs 25 to 30 lows 15 to 20

1st . Snow highs 20 to 25 lows 15 to 20

2nd Snow highs 20 to 25 lows 1o to 15

3rd Snow highs 20 to 25 lows 10 to 15

4th . Dry highs 20 to 25 lows 8 to 13

5th.. Dry highs 15 to 20 lows 5 to 10

6th. Dry highs 15 to 20 lows 10 15

7th .Dry highs 15 to 20 lows 5 to 10

Sunday, November 20, 2011

More pictures

I took these this morning here at the office...Still thinking about heading back North to get more pictures from up there,we shall see on that one....

8 deer in the above picture...

Saturday, November 19, 2011

11/19/2011 winter storm chase

Today was very interesting winter storm chase....I started at Trego and ended up heading to Gordon...Light snow started to fall around 12:19 PM just North of Trego....I decided to go further North...Once the heavy started it got very heavy very fast...Went to like 5 to 6 inches of snow like in a matter of an hour it seemed liked....53 was in bad condition before,well that very heavy snow made it worse....Snowflakes were big as half dollars...Could hardly see in front of you...The pictures I took in those conditions were nothing but crappy...All white...Would have been ok if I was close enough to buildings or something....Decided to head back South, as I didn't have nothing with me to stay the night any where....Saw lots of accidents one roll over by Spooner...Got home and now I'm able to post the pictures and videos from today....We ended up with 3 inches of snow back here at the office....

Video links below.

Friday, November 18, 2011

Updated snowfall forecast

Based on the latest data we have decided to lower the snowfall amounts across the board....

Thursday, November 17, 2011

Snowfall map.

From the latest data we looked at.Here is our total snowfall map, valid from Saturday through early Sunday morning. If drier air works off of Lake Superior some of those totals will be much lower than forecasted....Also could see LES form as the low pushes into the UP of MI as winds become Northerly/Northwesterly...Parts of the South shore snow belt could pick up more than 8 inches.....Looks like the track is rather set of this low pressure system...Models have been doing a rather good job on this storm system....Now if this system slows more we will have to up the snowfall amount across the board...Something we will be watching very close.

Wednesday, November 16, 2011

Wisconsin 2011 tornadoes.

Total Wisconsin tornadoes for 2011 is at 38 which is above normal…..Wisconsin normally sees an average of 23 tornadoes per year…So we are 15 tornadoes above normal….

The FA saw a grand total of 5 tornadoes….Lets break this down even more, by the Counties that saw tornadoes, along with their ratings.


1 Tornado on 05/22/2011 was rated an EF1.


2 Tornadoes… Both rated EF1 both happened on 04/10/2011


1 Tornado this was rated as an EF2…This tornado happened on 07/01/2011


1 Tornado, this was rated as an EF0….This tornado happened on 07/19/2011

The strongest tornado happened in Douglas County, while the weakest tornado was found over in Polk County.

All of the above info comes from the NWS....

Another day with snow.

Yesterday we had thundersnow in the afternoon...Today we had light snow/flurries.....That will tick one person off I know...Oh well to BAD!!

November 10th snowfall

On the early morning hours of November 10th we picked up 1 inch of snowfall....Here are a few pictures of it....More snow on the way for this weekend, our forecast will be issued today or this evening.

Monday, November 7, 2011

Snowfall forecast map.

Here is the latest thinking on the forecasted snow amounts that are possible...This could change later this evening,however as of right now this is how it appears to be setting up.

Accumulating snows.

Forecast below will stand as is....Accumulating snows looking better for parts of the FA...Rain and snow showers a forecasted to form late tonight rain should become all snow after 3 AM though not forecasting much in the way of accumulations, some snow may accumulate which will cause slushy roads and sidewalks.Should be less than an inch...Snow is forecasted to mix back with rain on Tuesday mainly in the afternoon...Rain/snow mixture is forecasted to change back to all snow....Several inches of snow is possible....Still really hard to pinpoint the exact amounts attm, but we will give it a stab....People traveling through the area should keep up on the latest forecast on this possible winter storm to effect parts of the FA..... Main areas that could be effected as of right now....Looks like points east of a Cumberland, Menomonie, and Durand line.... This looks to be the area with the best chance at seeing over 4 inches of snow...Meanwhile points West of said line still should see some accumulating snow....Here we should see 1 to 3 inches of snow...Further South looks to be rain/snow mixture, however depending on the exact track of the low and how fast cold air can mix into this area, will be the factor on how much snow will accumulate if any at all. Again it is really hard at this point to pin down the exact amounts and areas, but as of the latest computer model guidance this is how it stands right now...

Saturday, November 5, 2011

Looking back at October

Looking back at October, we had warmer than normal temps…This mainly happen in the first part of October……The rest October we saw a drop in temps….We had two thunderstorm days….

On the 12 we had a thunderstorm….On the 27 we had a thunderstorm that did mix and change to snow…So we had our first thundersnow of the season…..We had a trace of snow which came on the 27th the ground did get white for a little….So how did this past October compare to last October…Oct 2010 we had two thunderstorm days…We had ½ of snow which fell on the early morning hours of the 27th … So for the most part this past October was really no surprises….All around a near normal October…..

Time lapse sunset

Click link to see the time lapse vid.

Snow looking more likely for Tuesday night into early Wednesday..Forecast below.

Forecast concerns….This weekend….Windy conditions…Rain snow for Tuesday through early Wednesday…..

At 10 AM all stations are reporting PC to sunny skies….Temps range from the low 40s to middle 40s….Winds from the South/Southeast from 9 to 21 MPH with gusts ranging from 15 to 28 MPH.

Really did change too much with ongoing forecast….Did Warm temps up a little for Monday….. Ridge of high pressure from upstate New York down to MS will still keep our skies clear through today…. Meanwhile a system out in Western SD into CO will gets its act together as it pushes into Canada..Pressure gradients have already tightened up over the early morning hours….See no reason why this mixing down won’t hold strong….So today will be a hold onto your hat day, in fact the whole weekend shall be like that….. Low pressure deepens to around 992 MBS as it heads into Canada, this will also slam a cold front into the area on Sunday….Still could see a few showers here and there, won’t be nothing to write home about though….Our next system to effect the area looks to be stronger than forecasted last night per ECMWF…..What is interesting is that GFS and NAM keep a Southerly track on this system, while ECMWF holds onto the same track…. Looking back at last winter we saw this same setup with the models….I would think GFS and NAM will come around to ECMWF’s thinking…So with that said will run with the old faithful….We see a 1004 low pressure system taking shape over Northwestern TX Monday night, this low is forecasted to push into Southeast KS late Monday night….Then is forecasted to track up into South Central WI then into the UP of MI as it does it is forecasted to strengthen to 997 MBS…..So another wind jammer for Tuesday night through Wednesday….Moisture looks to be no problem with this system….Precip type is looking better for all snow for parts of WI…..Snow line should setup from Central Pierce to Southern Dunn and Chippewa Counties….Counties South of this line should remain all rain, however may end as some light snow….Counties North of this line should remain all snow….Will start off with a rain snow mix……Way to early to start to talk about snowfall amounts…Once again I used the ECMWF model as this seems to be the model of choice…NAM and GFS are way to South…Doing some studies from last winter systems and looking at how each model handled the storms…ECMWF model won hands down….We see this trend showing up once again…..


TODAY & NIGHT…Partly cloudy highs 50 to 55.Tonight slight chance of showers lows 35 to 40..Windy, winds from the South/Southeast 15 to 20 MPH with gusts up to 30 MPH.

SUNDAY…Cloudy slight chance of showers. Highs 45 to 50…Still windy…Winds 10 to 20 MPH with gusts up to 30 MPH from the Southwest..

SUNDAY NIGHT… Clearing lows 28 to 32.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT… Dry highs 40 to 45 lows 28 to 32.

TUESDAY….Increasing clouds rain/snow late highs 40 to 43

TUESDAY NIGHT. rain/ snow changing to all snow. Lows 30 to 32

WEDNESDAY. a chance of snow in the morning…. Highs 32 to 35.

WENDESDAY NIGHT. Clearing lows 25 to 30.

THUR THROUGH FRIDAY… DRY highs in the middle 30s to lower 40s while lows fall to the lower 20s to around 30 by Friday night.


This time frame will be known as the mini cold snap, also looks like we could be dealing with another winter storm around the 15th/16th time frame….GFS is way out to lunch on the track and keeps warmer air in place….Meanwhile ECWMF keeps the track right on target to give us a good dump of snow...This far out I won’t bet the farm on anything….We will fine tune this as we get closer to this time frame….

Friday, November 4, 2011

Forecast for Western/Northwestern WI

Forecast concerns….Windy conditions throughout the weekend, along with fire weather danger...Have ran with a slight chance of rain showers for Sunday…Bigger story will be the midweek storm system, along with cooler temps.


Skies are clear and temps are in the upper 30s to lower 40s across the area….Winds range from 3 to 7 MPH with some stations reporting gusts up to 18 MPH.


FA still locked under a rather large area of high pressure. Meanwhile Storm system out West will track into Canada through the weekend this is forecasted to drag a cold front into and through the area Sunday night into early Monday morning….Not a lot of moisture for said front to work with so will run with just a slight chance of rain showers…Pressure gradients will increase between the high out East and the low pushing into Canada..Winds for Saturday and Sunday could range from 10 to 20 MPH with gusts up to 30 MPH….Temps will remain warm with lower to middle 50s on Saturday…Did cut them to 45 to 50 for Sunday with the clouds around. We turn our concerns to midweek…Model are having somewhat have disagreement on the track of the system…GFS is still a little South to really impact the area, Meanwhile ECMWF model is more North if this pans out it could give my Central and Northern areas snow while my Southern areas stay rain for the most part with some snow mixing in from time to time….GFS would keep this all rain even on it Southerly and Easterly track…..Will run with the ECMWF model as this had the best handle on winter storms in the past. Looks like another few dry days on tap by weeks end….


Tonight… Clear lows 28 to 32. Winds South 5 to 10 MPH

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT… Clear highs 50 to 55 lows 35 to 40..Windy, winds 15 to 20 MPH with gusts up to 30 MPH.

SUNDAY…Cloudy slight chance of rain.Highs 45 to 50…Still windy…Winds 10 to 20 MPH with gusts up to 30 MPH from the Southwest..

SUNDAY NIGHT… Clearing lows 28 to 32.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT… Dry highs 38 to 42 lows 28 to 32.

TUESDAY….Increasing clouds rain/snow late highs 40 to 43

TUESDAY NIGHT. rain snow changing to all snow. Lows 30 to 32

WEDNESDAY. a chance of snow may be mixed with some rain at times…. Highs 32 to 35.

WENDESDAY NIGHT. Clearing lows 25 to 30.

THUR THROUGH FRIDAY… DRY highs in the middle 30s to lower 40s while lows fall to the lower 20s to around 30 by Friday night.


Main story here will be the temps as they will be getting much colder….Possible snow storm comes into play around the 17/20 time frame….Models are having a hard time with this system so won’t really go into much details on it just yet,as we got time to watch to see how the models forecast this……..Temps will be falling into the lower to middle teens with highs falling into the 20 to 25 range