Wednesday, December 23, 2009

Powerful major winter storm to pound the area..

***POWERFUL MAJOR WINTER STORM TO POUND THE AREA***


This could turn out to one of this winter's biggest winter storms...This thing will be a long duration snow storm...All models are in rather great agreement on placement of the low track still is not set in stone,however will blend the ECWMF and GFS for this forecast discussion...

WWA has worked into the area during day yesterday and through out the overnight hrs....This shows nice in this morning temps...Lower to middle 20s across the area for the most part..Today a shortwave will be moving North/Northeast this lead to more moisture flowing into the area...So would except some snow/wintery mix to form in my Southern zones this afternoon....Then steadily push North effecting my Central and possible my Northern area by this evening....This system dies out so things shouldn't get out of hand in snowfall amounts,however 1 to 2 inches of snow will be possible this evening into tonight...

Thursday Through Christmas..

We will see a 996 MB low getting it's act go over AR low is forecasted by most models to lift North slightly Northeast into IA as it does it shall deepen to around 988 MBS or so...Low is then forecasted to push into WI...Between Eau Claire and La Crosse...As it does the low will deepen to around 986 MBS....GOM is wide open so Moisture flow at the SFC and 500/700 MB levels is great....This system will also pull warmer air Northwards..Also this system could produce thundersnow,which will add to the totals of snowfall..Thinking my Southern areas will see a longer time frame of wintery mix than the rest of the my forecast area....Nevertheless still looks to be a wide area of 8 + inches of snow through out the whole forecast area..Also will see a rather large area of 12+ inches of snow....Mainly in the following Counties....Barron....Northwest part of Dunn....Polk.....St. Croix.....Also some of the higher areas of these said Counties could pick up closer to if not over 2 feet of snow...Thinking the area to see that would be Northern parts of Barron and Polk Counties..However in St.Croix County I would not be shocked to see a few 2 foot reports coming in....Winds will also become a major player with this system..Winds could gust up to the 30 to 35 MPH higher in our wind prone areas....This will cause near to blizzard conditions through out parts of the forecast area...With vis dropping down to near if not zero at times....

With the timing of this system over a major holiday many people have travel plans.....One should make sure to keep a winter safety kit in there vehicle..Make sure to call someone when leaving point A and your ETA to point B....Have a cell phone in case you become stuck....If you should become struck stay with your vehicle until help shows up....This system could be one of this winter's biggest snow storms...Could turn out to be a deadly one....Could also see power outages through of my forecast area do to the heavy wet snow....
Stay tuned to this blog for the latest on this hum dinger of a storm....

Tuesday, December 22, 2009

Forecast will stand

See no reason to change the ongoing forecast,after spending a good deal of this evening looking at all the model data...Forecast will stand.....Looks to be a wide area of 8 + inches through out the whole forecast area...a large area of 12 + inches through out my Northern Southern areas through my Central area into my Central Northern forecast areas....Some of these areas still could see close to if not 2 feet of snow.....Northern Barron County,Northern Polk County, and Rusk County then maybe down into the Central parts of said Counties.....Will have a another update in the morning around 3:30 AM
Forecast discussion still will focus of the powerful winter storm to effect the area starting Wednesday afternoon,with the main area of snow moving in Wednesday night and lasting through Friday night...With a chance of some light snow for Saturday.....Some problems have creep into the forecast which could pose some problems for the FA depending if ECMWF verifies.....


Looking at the ECMWF....

ECMWF has shifted the low pressure more Northwest now....Track would be from OK up to North Central IA then right over head....If this track pans out parts of the forecast area could see more of a wintery mix,as warmer air aloft gets pulled into parts of the area..If this the case this will pull total storm totals down....This model still has the pressure readings down to 994 as it works into WI,however by time it reaches over head storm weakens to around 1005 MBS...Nevertheless this system still looks to be a wind jammer....Thinking is as of right now ECMWF has the track to far Northwest compared to the rest of the forecast models.....

Let look at GFS...

GFS has the low tracking from Eastern OK up into Southwest IA then through Central WI...If this is the case less wintery mix would occur over parts of the forecast area....Hence more snowfall.....GFS keeps the storm system rather deep,from 990 MBS as it pushes towards IA then 999 MBS as it pushes into IA...By time it moves through WI the low is forecasted to deepen back to around 996 MBS..

Looking at the NAM model....

Nam as the same thinking as GFS..with about the same track and same strength....

So as you can see there are still a few problems with the track,however Am going to combined all said models above.....Models are pointing at higher QPF with this system...This will also be a long lasting storm...Waves of snow will be effecting area from Wed through Friday night,and lighter snows may last into Saturday....Am still think a widespread 8 + inches with a large area of 12 + inches of snow....Still thinking some areas could pick u close to 2 feet of snow by time all is said and down.....Winds will become a major player also causing a lot of blowing and drifting snow,even with the high moisture content of the snow....See below for more info on this dangerous winter storm....

Monday, December 21, 2009

Major winter storm looks more likely

Once again this forecast discussion will focus on the possible major winter storm that looks more likely to effect the area from Wed night through out much of Christmas day....


Looking at the latest ECMWF computer run...Am still seeing what looks likely to be a major winter storm for the Christmas holiday.....Strong low pressure is forecasted to get it's act going over NM then it is forecasted to race into TX and should deepen to around 998 MBS..Low then races into Northeast KS/Southwest IA...still under goes more intensification down to 989 MBS...Low pushes into Northeast IA/ Southwest WI..Then is pushes Northeast through towards the Green Bay area before moving into the Northeast part of the UPI of MI.....This system has plenty of moisture to work with...This system also looks to be a wind jammer with pressure gradients increasing between the area of low pressure and a strong 1034 MB high pressure to our Northwest....This will cause near blizzard conditions if not blizzard conditions through out the forecast area....Could see thundersnow as the system really cranks up over the Midwest..This system has the possibility to become one of winter's most dangerous storms.With this being the Christmas holiday timing on this is bad....This system could produce 12 + inches of snow through out much of the area...Would not be shocked to be upping this to 15+ inches of snow (closer to 2 feet of snow) if things keep coming in line.....

Without going into much details the other models I use are also slowly coming into line with good old reliable ECMWF.....

If one has travel plans through out Wednesday night through Christmas day,you will want to keep up with the latest info on this possible dangerous winter storm....If this pans out this system has the makings to become one hum dinger of a storm...This thing could become a deadly winter storm....Snow will be wet and heavy per models,which could cause power outages...Will go deeper into details on that tonight after work...

Keep up to date of this major winter storm by tuning into your local news media or the internet...Also keep checking back to this blog as I will try to have two updates each day.....This is one storm we all hope not see for the Christmas holiday..With any luck this system will not pan out.....

Sunday, December 20, 2009

Forecast discussion for Western/Northwestern WI

This forecast discussion will revolve around the possible major winter storm over Christmas eve and Christmas morning.....Near term forecast will have some light snow today then again on Wednesday....Still could see around an inch or 2 today,thinking is best areas to see that would South of of EAU CLAIRE while points north would see less...

***A POSSIBLE MAJOR WINTER STORM TO EFFECT THE AREA LATER IN THE UP COMING WEEK***

By all means this forecast is not set in stone in any shape or form....Forecasting models still all over the place with this system,however ECWMF has been the most constant so will Am going to lean towards that model the hardest ATTM..Also timing of the storm is still up in the air ,however still looks like it could effect the area over the time frame said above....The past few runs ECMWF has taken this storm more North....So while Am talking about the model lets break it down...

The 00z run shows a 1000 MB low pressure forming over Northern NM or Southern CO...ECWMF takes this low into Northern TX and deepens it to around 999 MBS....The low is forecasted to race Northeast towards the Northeast part of KS/Southwest part of IA...Also low is forecasted to deepen to around 981 MBS...Then the low tracks into Southern WI then across MI....With this track this would move the heaver snow more North and East then yesterday runs showed..So as of right now looks like all my forecast area could see significant snowfall accumulations...So ECWMF has been trending North with this system so for snow lovers of all ages that would be great news,however timing of this system is bad do to the Christmas holiday....Also looks like another wind jammer of a system...Which could lead to near blizzard conditions if this track pans out...

Now lets take a look at the GFS model....

GFS has trended a little more North on it's 00z run but still feel it's to far South compared to the rest of the middle and long range model.....This model has the system tracking from Eastern OK into Eastern Central MO then near Chicago,then through Southern MI....Also GFS shows this system to be much weaker around 1008 MBS by time it reaches Northeast IL....Just looked at GFS 06z run....GFS has come more in line with ECMWF....This run shows the system moving from Southwest MO Northeast to West of Chicago then North of Milwaukee WI then through the Northern part of MI...GFS still has this system weaker....About 1004 MBS by time it moves into WI....Either way the new track off of GFS is much better for significant snowfall accumulations across most of my forecast area...

Time to look at the GEM/GLB model....

Here 00z run from Gem/GLB has a 995 MB low pressure system forming over the TX panhandle....This model moves the system into Eastern KS then pushes the system up to the WI/IL border and deepens the low to around 991 MBS then tracks the low through Eastern WI into far Northwest MI...So this model is more in line with the ECMWF....

So to recap...looking at all the model data as of right now looks like we could be dealing with a major winter storm for the Christmas holiday.....People who have travel plans will want to keep up with the latest forecast from your local media,NOAA all hazards weather radios...Or just watch this forecasting blog for the latest on this possible major winter storm....The only reason am talking about this this early in the game is because of the Christmas holiday and many people will be on the road networks....This could turn out to be a dangerous winter storm...Timing of this is just bad...



Note number 1....


Once again this forecast is not set in stone! however over the next day or two the finer details will be worked out and I will have a better handle on this.....

Note number two...

With the area lakes having ice on them...Some of the lakes still are not safe...Best advise I give here is for sure keep your kids off the ice....With the lakes freezing over and the snows we had the ice has not really got that thick yet...I found this out yesterday while checking out some of the lakes....One can go from 3-4 inches of ice down to an inch of ice in a matter of feet's....If you must fish like me...be very careful out on the ice as it changes real fast!

Saturday, December 19, 2009

Forecast dis for Western and Northwestern WI

Forecast problems.....There are many near,middle,and long term....Will see if we can work them out....First problem will be today and then Sunday.....Then the biggest problem will come into play Wednesday through Friday when a major snow storm could effect the area Christmas eve through Christmas day (morning)....So this forecast discussion is one big headache.....


Lets try to hash out the problem for Sunday...

SFC ANALYSIS...

Weather charts show one big power house of a storm system over SC/NC coast line....High pressure rules the Western states WV imagery showing a shortwave up in Canada...

TODAY....

Problems will be with the low clouds and light areas of freezing precip....That should end sometime this morning...Clouds should remain in place through out the day,however would not be surprised to see some sunshine peaking out here and there this afternoon,this will lead to another problem with temps....Right now am going to have temps in the middle 20s South and lower 20s Central and North...With that said anyone spot that is able to see any amount of sunshine temps could be a few degrees warmer....

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.....

By 12z today we will see the shortwave working Southwards in Alberta CN....Meantime a 982 MB major power house storm system is forecasted to of the far Northern NC coast line..By 18z today our shortwave should be in Southern Alberta...While the major nor'easter still gathering strength over the far Northern coast line of NC..By 00z Sunday we see our weather system moving into Northwest ND....Major nor'easter should be deepen to around 988 MBS as it heads North along the Eastern coast line....By 12z Sunday we will find the shortwave centered over Eastern ND/Western MN....The main story will be the major coast line storm system...This thing deepens to around 976-980 MBS.....This may lead to problem with our little system...If the Eastern storm system is slower to move this would lead to a slower movement of our system,hence will delay the snow by a few hours....System really does not have a good amount of moisture with it...So will be hard to nail down snow amounts....However Am going to run with one to two inches of snow...Another problem is where will this snow fall....That is still some what up in the air....One model keeps the snow out to the West over in MN,while another model shows the snow to fall from Eastern MN into my forecast area...So this would lead one to think 1 to 2 inches of snow looks likely some where in my forecast area....Will try to nail to this down later with another model run or so....the 06z run may not give much more light..Will see what the 12z runs shows...Nevertheless this will not be a big deal for the area..

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY....

Weather should be rather peaceful.....Some what cooler air will spill back into the area behind the departing shortwave....This will cause temps to fall to around the lower single digits for Mon night....WAA kicks back in on Tuesday..so temps are forecasted to be in the lower to middle 20s once again...Good time to get out and enjoy all the snow as really temps won't be that cold......

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.....

First off my confidence level is low on this time frame,as models have been and still are all over the place with what may be a major snowstorm for the forecast area....

So with the model data I have in front of me this morning this now what is forecasted....First off the bat lets look at the ECMWF model......

00z run shows a 1003 MBS low pressure getting it's act going over AZ on Wednesday....This low is forecasted to move into Southern OK/Northern TX...Then the low is forecasted to lift North/Northeast into SW MO and deepen to around 996 MBS...Then it is forecasted to lift Northeast to around the NE IL area.....If this track does turn out parts of my FA could end up with a good amount of snow...Looks like this will be another win jammer of a system....Now with that all said and done...ECMWF has been changing this track on just about all it's runs....So this system could end up being more North by time we get to Tuesday....That day will be the make it or break it day.....

Second out of the gate is the GFS model....

This model keep the storm system well to our South on it's 00z run...If that plays out we won't have to worry about this system effecting the forecast area.....However looking back at GFS 12z run this model did have the system more North,almost the same track as ECWMF....The latest 06z run GFS has this system still way South....

So as you can see this system is playing havoc on the models....There has been no consistency what so ever....Though ECMWF has showing more than GFS....So with this in mind and this model leading the way so far this winter will lean towards it....So best areas to see significant snowfall amounts would be Eastern MN and Western WI.for the eve of Dec 24 and Christmas morning...That is if ECWMF pans outs....Way to early to even think about nailing down snowfall amounts...The only reason I brought it up is this is the biggest holiday travel time...So people will want to keep up with the latest on this possible major winter storm that may effect my forecast area of WI....

Friday, December 11, 2009

Nice and cold this morning



Ok -12.2 degrees outside...Coldest temp of the 09./10 winter so far....Someone tell me when spring is here,going to sleep until then!....

Thursday, December 10, 2009

A look at this winter's snowfall so far

Notice this is from the my off or aka The Weather Center.....As many areas did not see this much snow...
Ok so far this 08/09 winter we have a grand total of 22.50 inches of snow...Oct and Dec saw the most snow,while Nov we saw 2.00 inches of snow...Am going to get updating this as needed...I will not include trace amounts as them don't mean much to us....anything over a 1/4 of an inch will be added....Just like we did last winter...

Wednesday, December 9, 2009

Last pictures for awhile.


***MAJOR WINTER STORM UPDATE NUMBER 6***

MAJOR WINTER STORM POUNDING THE AREA***



Snowfall amount from The Weather Center so far...Before we get to this..Will say this is a very difficult storm to measure snow in...Blowing and drifting snow...Anyway our best guess is 8 inches of snow...This could be closer to 10 inches...I did call it into the NWS as 8 inches for best guess....

Stay tuned to The Weather Center for more updates on this major winter storm.........

Forecasters.....Dirk/Paul....

More pictures





More pictures of the major snow storm pounding the area...

*** MAJOR WINTER STORM UPDATE NUMBER 5 ***/Closings/Cancellations

MAJOR WINTER STORM POUNDING THE AREA***


Most area schools have been closed through out our forecast area....Tune into your local news media for the latest on this.....

Radar still showing areas of heavy snow....Some of this appears to have become Lake enhanced snow from Lake Superior over parts of Washburn,Barron,Sawyer and far Northwestern part of Rusk Counties....So this could become very interesting if winds keep flowing of of Superior...Not uncommon to get lake enhanced snow this far South with a strong storm system....This could produce higher snowfall amounts in parts of Southern Washburn,Sawyer Counties...Along with parts of Northern Barron County and far Northwestern Rusk Counties than was forecasted......

Stay tuned to The Weather Center for more updates on this major winter storm.........

Forecasters.....Dirk/Paul....

***MAJOR SNOW STORM UPDATE NUMBER 4***

***MAJOR WINTER STORM POUNDING THE AREA***


Latest radar is showing a heavy snow band now covering a rather large are of our forecast area...This area seems to be expanding some...So look for mod to heavy snow through out the early morning hrs....Snow should start to become lighter towards the noon hour...However winds will remain strong this will cause widespread blowing and drifting snow..Vis could be near if not zero at times...This will make travel very hard if not impossible....

Stay tuned to The Weather Center for more updates on this major winter storm.........

Forecasters.....Dirk/Paul....

Winter storm pictures











Here are some pictures I took this morning,as you can see in some of these pictures,heavy snow falling along with blowing snow...At times when I walked out to the road I could not see more then 2 feet in front of me..Yeah that was real dumb on my part....More pictures to come once it gets light...Yes I did try to get to work but got stuck on my road...20 mins later I got out and went back home and said the heck with it,not worth trying to get to work....

Side note to statement below

Another great site for local School closings....
http://www.kstp.com/
They seem to be updating faster....

***MAJOR WINTER STORM UPDATE NUMBER 3***

***MAJOR WINTER STORM POUNDING THE AREA***


Looking at the latest radar from Twin Cities and Duluth....Mod to heavy snow is falling across the forecast area...Looking at the Duluth radar..A rather large area of heavy snow is all of Douglas,the Northwestern 2/3s of Bay Filed County,...This band of heavy snow reaches down into Burnett County and the Northwestern part of Washburn County..What is interesting but not at all uncommon the Twin Cities radar is not showing this...However Duluth radar is picking up on it rather well...Heavy snow is falling through out Central to Eastern Barron County over in to Rusk County..Mod to heavy snow at times is falling through out the rest of my Northern forecast area.The area of snow appears to be expanding...Now lets look the Twin Cities radar....We see the heavy snow band from Burnett County runs right through the Northwestern/Western part of Polk County....Also the heavy snow band we see in Barron County reaches down into Dunn,Chippewa Counties,then reaches back over into ST.Croix,Pierce,and Pepin Counties.....

Looking at some road conditions this morning....

US 2 from Ashland to Superior is impassable.....Then US 2 from Birch Hill to Ashland is impassable....

Rest of the major roads in my forecast area are snow and ice covered....Secondary roads are snow and ice covered and drifted over...Looking at my road it is drifted shut for the most part with 3 foot snow drifts...

Travel is not is not recommended through out the forecast area, only in emergency conditions..This is the winter storm warning area,in the Blizzard warning area.....They are saying don't travel at all,only under emergency conditions..See the NWS website for more info on all the warnings..So to sum it up if you don't have to travel don't,as conditions will be getting worst over the next hour or so...With very strong winds vis have or will drop to near if no zero vis in both the winter storm warning and blizzard warning areas...Here at the Weather Center vis have drop to near zero attms.....

Looking at some of SFC OBS (wind)...We see winds are from the North/Northeast...Gusting from 20 to 39 MPH...Some of the highest wind gusts are as follows....Ashland 39 MPH....Ladysmith 30 MPH....Rice Lake...31 MPH....Osceola 31 MPH....And last but not least New Richmond 35 MPH.....

Looking at some school closings taken from WEAU's website...www.weau.com


PUBLIC SCHOOLS

Ellsworth: Closed

Elmwood: Closed

Fall Creek: Closed

Gilmanton: 2 Hour Delay

Holmen: Closed

Independence: Closed

La Crosse: Closed

Marshfield: Closed

Melrose-Mindoro: Closed

Menomonie: Closed

Necedah: Closed

Neillsville: Closed

Nekoosa: Closed

Onalaska: Closed

Osseo-Fairchild: Closed

Owen-Withee: Closed

Pepin: Closed

Pittsville: Closed; All Activities and practices are cancelled also

Port Edwards: Closed

Prairie Farm: Closed

Rib Lake: Closed

Spencer: Closed

Thorp: Closed

Turtle Lake: Closed

Whitehall: Closed

Abbotsford: Closed

Adams-Friendship: Closed

Alma: Closed

Alma Center: Closed

Arcadia: Closed

Augusta: Closed

Barron: Closed

Black River Falls: Closed

Blair-Taylor: Closed

Cochrane-F.Cty: Closed

Colby: Closed

Colfax: Closed

Eau Claire: Closed

Eleva-Strum: Closed

I'm sure more will be add to this list as we get closer to 6 Am hr.....So keep checking this site for more school closings....


Stay tuned to The Weather Center for more updates on this major winter storm.........

Forecasters.....Dirk/Paul....

Tuesday, December 8, 2009

Short Term Forecast update Number 2

At 5:34 PM Weather Center's radar is tracking a large area of mod to heavy snow,in the following Counties...Chippewa,Dunn,ST.Croix.Pepin, and Pierce....The mod to heavy snow is lifting Northwards....Should be over taken Barron,Polk,and Rusk Counties within the next hour or so...Winds have also increased across the area so blowing and drifting snow will start to become more of a problem through out the evening....Am going to up the total storm totals to a widespread 8 to 12 inches...With 12 + amounts in the Northern areas of Barron,Rusk Counties,Southern Washburn,Sawyer Counties....Points would be from North of Cumberland over to Canton to Ladysmith line....Then points South of a Trego to Winter....Another area that could see more than 12 + amounts of snow Would be the following Counties...Dunn,Chippewa,and ST.Croix....Points South of line from New Richmond to Wheeler,to just South of Bloomer

Short term forecast update number 1

Major winter storm is starting to pound the area...Snow as moved into the FA this afternoon...Most of weather spotters are reporting 1 to 2 inches of snow at this 4:39 hr..Hear at The Weather Center we have 1.75 inches of new snow..Radar is showing light to mod snow through out our forecast area...More heavier bands on snow are found along the South shore of Lake Superior...Meanwhile more heavier snow bands are moving through my far Southern forecast Counties..Starting to make there way into Southern St.Croix County,and into Southwest Dunn County....Would not be shocked to hear some reports of thundersnow in them areas...Along with reports of thundersnow through the rest of the froecast area tonight....
This is a dangerours major winter storm that is ready to pound us as the evening goes on....

***MAJOR WINTER STORM UPDATE***

No changes needed to on going forecast below,as it is right on track...Storm totals still on track for a widepsread 7 to 10 inches of snow....With some areas picking up a foot...See one of the forecast for that info,has it now once again looks like two different areas to could see the 12 inches or more......Other than that no other changes will be needed..Winds could gust up to the 35 to 40 MPH range  later tonight and holding through Wednesday....See post below for other info....

WINTER STORM UPDATE

***MAJOR WINTER STORM UPDATE***....UPDATED @ 3:30 AM TUESDAY MORNING.....




A few changes are needed this morning.....First change was to delay the snow for points North of Chippewa,Dunn,and ST.Croix Counties,as Arctic air as remained locked in place a little longer that thought...The Arctic air should saturate rather fast later this morning...Still this will hinder snowfall amounts in them areas to around and inch or less by tonight.....Snowfall rates will be trended higher in said areas also with the colder air in place....So Am now going to up the total storm amounts....Here is where things get a little tricky...Am going to run with a widespread 8 to 10 inches of snow for all of my forecast area....Thinking is right now my far Southern areas will see 5 to 9 inches of snow.....The best moisture and forcing shows up later tonight into Wednesday...This will hold onto the FA longer than thought...Hence the reason why I upped the storm totals....The storm track has also shifted more Northwards..About 50 to 100 miles North...So the low pressure should by tracking over Southern WI towards the Milwaukee area....Also the storm system does deepen to around 975 MBS...So thinking about increasing winds speeds once again,however for now I will let them ride as they are...Will update the winds tonight if needed....So most areas will see near to blizzard conditions from late tonight through much of the day on Wednesday....Vis could drop to around zero at times....Looks like most of the heavy snow will start to fall later tonight and last right through a good part of Wednesday...No matter how we cut it slice it looks like a good dump of snow..the lower teens....Am still a little concerned about severe thunderstorms forming down South,if this does play out that will limited some moisture supply into the area,then we will be forced into lowering the storm totals....Do have time to figure that out this evening.........After this storm system moves Northeast of the area it will drag an Arctic cold front through night time lows will be tricky,I have under cut model guidance's with the forecasted snow amounts....Deep snow pack and clear nights should yield for lows well below zero..Should see a range of -5 to -10....With highs ranging from the single digits to around 12 or the lower teens....



Travel could become very difficult or impossible late Tuesday night through much of the day on Wednesday..If you plan to travel make sure you have a winter safety kit in your vehicle...If you plan on traveling make sure you let someone know when you leave point A and your ETA to point B....Have a cell phone to call for help if you should become stuck...Do not try to walk to get help,your vehicle will be your best shelter....This could be dangerous winter storm...Best advise we can give you only travel if it is an emergency....





***MAJOR WINTER STORM UPDATE***...Updated at 7:30 PM



Looking at the latest computer model runs...Will time snow to start sooner than forecasted..Looking to start the snow mid morning Tuesday across my Southern areas then around noon in my Central areas then around 1 or 2 in my Northern areas.....Snow accumulations for Tuesday look to be around and inch maybe two....Winds will still not a problem,Tuesday night snow will become heavy at times...With winds increasing 10 to 20 MPH with higher gust...This will lead to blowing and drifting snow....Wednesday..Snow heavy at times,winds should be howling out of N/NW around 20 MPH with gusts up to 35 MPH some of the wind prone areas could see wind gusts 40 to 45 MPH..This will lead to more blowing and drifting snow...Some areas could see near 0 vis with near to blizzard conditions Tuesday night through much of the day Wednesday....Will keep thinking the same.... Will run with a widespread 6 to 9 inches of snow through out the whole forecast area....Places that could see 9 to 12 inches or slightly more are in two different areas...First one would run through ST.Croix County over to Dunn County and into Chippewa County....Or South of line from New Richmond to Wheeler to around the Chippewa Falls area.....The second area likely to see 9 to 12 or slightly more inches are Barron,Polk,Sawyer,and Washburn Counties....Or points north of a line from Luck to Cumberland,Rice Lake over to Ladysmith.Most of the heavy snow should fall from late Tuesday night through around the noon hour on Wednesday...One big player on the forecasted snowfall amounts will be if any thunderstorms get going down South..If so this should rob some of the moisture flow Northwards,hence lowering the snowfall amounts....So some concerns still remain if severe thunderstorms will blow up.....

Travel could become very difficult or impossible late Tuesday night through much of the day on Wednesday..If you plan to travel make sure you have a winter safety kit in your vehicle...If you plan on traveling make sure you let someone know when you leave point A and your ETA to point B....Have a cell phone to call for help if you should become stuck...Do not try to walk to get help,your vehicle will be your best shelter....This could be dangerous winter storm...Best advise we can give you only travel if it is an emergency....

Temps will fall like a rock as an Arctic cold front slams through the area...Look for lows to be well below zero for the remainder of the work week,with highs in the single digits to around 10 or so..This trend will last through the weekend...So looks like winter is going to be around for sometime...

Monday, December 7, 2009

Winter storm update

***MAJOR WINTER STORM UPDATE***...Updated at 7:30 PM




Looking at the latest computer model runs...Will time snow to start sooner than forecasted..Looking to start the snow mid morning Tuesday across my Southern areas then around noon in my Central areas then around 1 or 2 in my Northern areas.....Snow accumulations for Tuesday look to be around and inch maybe two....Winds will still not a problem,Tuesday night snow will become heavy at times...With winds increasing 10 to 20 MPH with higher gust...This will lead to blowing and drifting snow....Wednesday..Snow heavy at times,winds should be howling out of N/NW around 20 MPH with gusts up to 35 MPH some of the wind prone areas could see wind gusts 40 to 45 MPH..This will lead to more blowing and drifting snow...Some areas could see near 0 vis with near to blizzard conditions Tuesday night through much of the day Wednesday....Will keep thinking the same.... Will run with a widespread 6 to 9 inches of snow through out the whole forecast area....Places that could see 9 to 12 inches or slightly more are in two different areas...First one would run through ST.Croix County over to Dunn County and into Chippewa County....Or South of line from New Richmond to Wheeler to around the Chippewa Falls area.....The second area likely to see 9 to 12 or slightly more inches are Barron,Polk,Sawyer,and Washburn Counties....Or points north of a line from Luck to Cumberland,Rice Lake over to Ladysmith.Most of the heavy snow should fall from late Tuesday night through around the noon hour on Wednesday...One big player on the forecasted snowfall amounts will be if any thunderstorms get going down South..If so this should rob some of the moisture flow Northwards,hence lowering the snowfall amounts....So some concerns still remain if severe thunderstorms will blow up.....



Travel could become very difficult or impossible late Tuesday night through much of the day on Wednesday..If you plan to travel make sure you have a winter safety kit in your vehicle...If you plan on traveling make sure you let someone know when you leave point A and your ETA to point B....Have a cell phone to call for help if you should become stuck...Do not try to walk to get help,your vehicle will be your best shelter....This could be dangerous winter storm...Best advise we can give you only travel if it is an emergency....



Temps will fall like a rock as an Arctic cold front slams through the area...Look for lows to be well below zero for the remainder of the work week,with highs in the single digits to around 10 or so..This trend will last through the weekend...So looks like winter is going to be around for sometime...

MAJOR WINTER STORM

***MAJOR WINTER STORM TO POUND THE AREA***


The NWS has issued a winter storm warning for my whole forecast area....

Low pressure is forecasted to move from the OK panhandle Northeast to Northern IL,Southern WI...All models seem to have locked onto this track..However with the low deepen fast as it forecasted to do this may push the low a tad more North...So thinking as of right now to run with a widespread 6 to 9 inches of snow through out the whole forecast area....Places that could see 9 to 12 inches or slightly more are in two different areas...First one would run through ST.Croix County over to Dunn County and into Chippewa County....Or South of line from New Richmond to Wheeler to around the Chippewa Falls area.....The second area likely to see 9 to 12 or slightly more inches are Barron,Polk,Sawyer,and Washburn Counties....Or points north of a line from Luck to Cumberland,Rice Lake over to Ladysmith.Most of the heavy snow should fall from late Tuesday night through around the noon hour...One big player on the forecasted snowfall amounts will be if any thunderstorms get going down South..If so this should rob some of the moisture flow Northwards,hence lowering the snowfall amounts....Have not changed anything else with the ongoing forecast....Winds will become a problem,so left that in tack..See below for all that info..Will try to get to a detailed forecast tonight,or early tomorrow morning..Also see below for precautionary statement...

***MAJOR WINTER STORM***

***MAJOR WINTER STORM***




All computer models are now on the same page on this winter storm to effect the area from Tuesday through Wednesday night....

A 996 low pressure will organize or the the corners area of the USA....This low is forecasted to lift Northeast into Southern/Central IA then move into Southern/Central WI,as it does it will deepen to around 974 MBS of pressure....GFS model is a little more South with said low,however it has been shifting the low North and Northwest with each run...ECMWF has also shifted the low more North/Northwest with its past runs...Moisture will be plentiful as the GOM is wide open....Cold air will not be a problem for my forecast area....Another thing that has be a little concerned right now with the strong intensification is this system will end up being a wind jammer...So right now thinking is 8+ inches of snow on tap for the FA,some of my higher areas may see 12+ inches of snow..Will have a map on that tonight when I get home from work.....

This could be a very dangerous winter storm....From Tuesday late afternoon through Wednesday night.....Snow should become heavy Tuesday late afternoon through Wednesday evening....Winds will become rather strong...We should see winds on the average of 15 to 25 MPH with gust up to 40-45 MPH at times....This will lead to very dangerous traveling conditions ....With heavy snow falling and blowing snow...Vis could drop to near 0 at times in open areas.so parts on my forecast area could see near if not blizzard conditions Tuesday night through Wednesday...



If one must be on the roadways through this time frame,make sure you have a winter safety kit in your car/truck..If you become stuck stay with your car/truck,call,or wait for help.....Let people know when you are leaving point A and you ETA to point B also let them know the way you are taken......



Will go into a very detailed forecast tonight...Some of it may be on the tech side....Stay tuned for more updates on this MAJOR WINTER SNOWSTORM....

Sunday, December 6, 2009

Ok winter is here


This is what I woke up to this morning....2 above...Had a low of 1 above....Looks like some snow on it's way for Tuesday and Wednesday...Will try to have a updated forecast out on this possible major winter storm later today or this evening....

Friday, December 4, 2009

Fast look at the forecast

Will have more detailed forecast this weekend...However looks like the light snow/flurries will becoming to an end before the midnight hr.....Saturday is shaping up to a rather nice day  with hihs in the lower to middle 20s....Sunday not much change highs about the same as Saturday..Lows through this period in the middle teens....Monday still warm and dry as a low pressure system gets pushed to the South of the area...Highs still in the middle 20s..Tuesday through Wednesday looks some what interesting...Though ECMWF pushes the low pressure from the four conners into the OH/TN Valley area...This would keep most of the heavy snow South of my FA....My far Southern areas could see some snow accumlations from this system....Will have updates on this winter storm if needed...If not non will be issued....One thing that is a given with all computer models is the cold air will reamian camped out through next week....Lows in the single digits with highs in the upper teens by Wed lasting through next Sat....

Sunday, November 29, 2009

Last night's/early morning snowfall pics




2 inches of snow had fallen last night/early this morning...

Thursday, November 26, 2009

The forecast for Western/Northwestern WI

The snow that could have been should have been never got going like it was forecasted...However rain and snow mixture was common across the area yesterday and last evening...Forecast headaches...There are many...First off the bat is how cold to keep temps,and how cold to drop temps come Sunday through much of next week....Then the timing of the next storm system when to bring snow showers/flurries back into the forecast and how long to run with it....Some issues do show up in the long range forecasting models,so that will play havoc in the extended forecast.....


***CURRENT CONDITIONS***

Forecast area locked under cloudy skies at this 6 am hour...Temps are in the upper 20s to lower 30s...Winds still remain rather strong....anywhere from 10 to 15 MPH with gusts up to around 16 to 18 MPH....Windchills running from 19 to 26,so a blustery morning out there...Satellite imagery showing some breaks in the clouds out over Western MN ..Looking at MN SFC OBS they are matching rather well with the cloud breaks....Winds over there are also rather strong/gusty...Leads me to think winds will remain up for a few hours if not most of today....

***SFC ANALYSIS***

Cold front that blasted through the area early yesterday is now past MI down to far Northern LA....Weak area of low pressure still remains over Lake MI....This has kept the CAA going through out the night...Cloud cover and winds kept temps in check during the overnight hrs...1022 MB high pressure is located over far Northern ND....Our next weather maker is now coming on shore in BC Canada....Skies should slowly start to become partly cloudy around noon today as weak high pressure builds into the area....Winds should also slacken off as we head through this day..This is setting up the FA for a very cold night.....Meantime a warm front will start to move into ND/SD by 00z Friday.By 06Z said front should be into the Eastern areas of ND/SD...How my forecast areas will not see any WAA kick in until late Friday afternoon or as late as Friday night.....By Saturday 12z we find 1021 MB high pressure to our Southeast over the TN Valley...Weak area of low pressure is forecasted to be on the Western part of MN doorstep...This has me thinking I will keep Saturday clear to partly sunny/cloudy..Will have to increase clouds Saturday night....Low then pulls into Northeastern WI ..As it does this should ensure the FA a cloudy day with snow showers/flurries around...Does not look like a big deal ATTM...Will watch it though if this low was to track a tad more South it would bring the better dynamics with it and could lead to an inch or so of snow to the FA,right now best areas for that will be over my far Northern parts of the FA....Arctic high pressure builds into the forecast area through next Wed....By Wed highs may not get out of the 20s....With lows in the teens.....

***MID/ UPPER LEVEL DISCUSSION***

Looking at the 500 MB charts this morning....Upper level low is over Southern WI/Northern MN...This has setup the Forecast areas under a N/NW flow...CAA well under way...Later today upper level low moves into SW/MI/NE IN.....Jet does increase to around 50 to around 60 KTS,this will insure the CAA to keep a coming....Meanwhile a ridge building out to our Southwest,will for the most part remain South of the area,however this will allow the upper level flow to flatten out into more of a Westerly flow on Sat...This will allow temps to warm a little..We find another upper level low digging into Western CA..This will become our next problem for Wednesday night into Thursday's time frame...More on this later....So overall the colder weather pattern will remain in place,some warmer temps for this weekend,then CAA really takes hold of the FA for next week....

***FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN AREAS***

TODAY....Will run with mostly cloudy skies,then becoming PC towards evening...Highs today 30 to 33 with Northwest winds 10 to 15 MPH with higher gusts....Tonight PC skies,should become clear with lows in the lower 20s with Northwest winds becoming light to calm....Saturday....Partly to mostly sunny with highs in the upper 30s to around 40...Lows Sat night fall into the lower 20s...With a slight chance of snow.....Sunday cloudy with periods of light snow...1/4 to 1/2 inch possible...Highs in the lower 30s....Will keep snow alive for Sun night...Lows in the upper teens....Could see another 1/4 to 1/2 inch of snow,Mainly over far northern areas towards Lake Superior...

Monday through Wed....Slight chance of snow early Monday and again on Wed....Highs through this time frame lower 30s to upper 20s by Wed, with lows in the middle to upper teens...

***FORECAST FOR THE CENTRAL AREAS***

Today skies becoming partly cloudy highs in the middle 30s...Winds Northwest around 10 MPH with higher gust this morning...Tonight partly cloudy becoming clear lows in the lower 20s..Northwest winds become light them calm...Saturday....Partly sunny/partly cloudy highs in the lower to middle 40s winds light out of the W/NW....Sat night...Increasing clouds lows in the lower to middle 20s...Sun..slight chance of snow showers/flurries..Highs in the lower to middle 30s..Sun night...Will keep a slight chance of snow going lows in the lower 20s....

Monday through Wed.....Partly cloudy to mostly sunny highs start of in the middle 30s and then drop into the upper 20s by Wed..Lows in the in the middle to upper teens.....

***FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS***

Today becoming partly cloudy with highs in the middle 30s,With Northwest winds around 10 MPH with higher gusts mainly this morning...Tonight Partly cloudy then becoming clear winds light then becoming calm...Lows in the lower 20s...Sat...Partly to mostly sunny skies highs in the middle 40s..Sat night lows fall into the upper 20s under increasing clouds....Sunday....Small chance of snow showers/flurries..Highs in the middle to upper 30s...Low Sun night in the middle 20s with a small chance at some snow showers and flurries....Monday through Wed.....Partly to mostly sunny skies...Highs start off in the middle 30s then fall to the lower 30s by Wed...Meantime lows in the upper teens to lower 20s....

***EXTENDED FORECAST ***

Here is where the fun begins once again....Snow storm or no snow storm later next week? as some forecasters have been hinting at well lets see if I can answer this one....

First off we will look at good old reliable forecasting model...ECWMF.....Looking at the 00z run...On Wed we see a 994 MB low pressure over far Northwestern ND this low is forecasted to move along the USA.Canada border and weakens as it does...Most of the energy would be focused to our North..leaving the FA with some light snows...Heights through out all levels would be cold enough for all snow.....Ok now lets look at the GFS models...To be fair will run with 00z run like I did with the ECWMF..

GFS has a 992 MB low pressure over Northern ND on Wed....Low then fills in by Thursday over Lake Superior.So lights snow would be possible for the FA,however I don't agree with what this model is showing..With a 993 MB low forming over KY on Thursday..GFS races this almost do North to just East of MI and deepen the low to around 982 MBS...All this would do is bring in windy conditions to my Central and Eastern parts of the FA..On it's 06z Run this model shows more of the FA to have more winds...So with that said,as of right now I really see no big snow storms in the forecast from Dec 1 through Dec 6th.....Will stick by ECWMF model with and toss GFS and other models out the window for now....One thing that both models seem to agree on is the cold air over the my FA...So to sum this extended forecast up...No big snow storm are forecasted as of right now...Temps do look to remain cold through this time period....

Tuesday, November 24, 2009

Snow still looks likely

Snow/sleet/rain still looks likely for Wednesday afternoon chaning to all snow Wednesday night.....Not good timing on this system as there will be many people on the road ways heading to family and friends for Thanksgiving.....If one plans on traveling keep up on the latest weather forecasts for this time frame....

12z Tuesday 1000 MB low is forecasted to be over far Northeast KS/Northwestern MO/Southern IA by 18z today said low should be in about the same spot...By 00Z Wed...Low is forecasted to be on the IA/MO border..Low takes a turn darn near do North by 06z Wed...To far Eastern IA/Northwestern part of IL/far Southwestern WI..By 12z Wed said low should be located around the Appleton area of Eastern WI by 00z Thur said low should be into far Northwestern MI...The track of this storm system will allow for colder temps to work into the area through out the day on Wed at all levels....Rain/sleet/snow will change over to all snow sometime Wed afternoon for the FA..Right now looks like the best areas to see 1 to 2 inches of snow would be in my Central areas,while in my Southern areas could see 2 to 4 inches of snow,while my Northern areas see a dusting or so....This is still up in the air any shift in the storm track would chance the forecasted snowfall amounts....Also problems lay with the timing of the change over to all snow....So forecasted amount are nearly a guess on my part right now,with the info I have from the latest computer runs....Will update this tonight after work and go into more details if needed......

Saturday, November 21, 2009

The forecast for Western/Northwestern WI

Not much needed to be changed in ongoing forecast....Main problem still remains in the extended forecast cycle....As long range forecasting models still not coming to any agreement on placement of storm systems,or the strength of them....Short and middle term forecast still on track so won't touch it to much....Fog did become a problem in my Central and Southern areas..That should burn off between 9 AM and 10 AM this morning.....

***CURRENT CONDITIONS***

Fog is the main issue this early morning....Some of the vis reported have been less that 1/4 mile from Ladysmith down to Eau Claire...Some of the fog has been freezing on bridge deck,overpasses along with lesser traveled secondary back roads......Temps this morning are hanging in the upper 20s to lower 30s...Warmest temps found out in New Richmond...32° while the coldest temps up in Superior with 25° being reported......

***SFC ANALYSIS***

1022 MB high pressure is found over Northeast IL....Meanwhile a cold front was in Western MT reaching down into Northwest part of UT then back into Central CA...1000 MB low pressure is seeing over ID and another one found over Southwestern NV...By 12z Saturday Western cold front makes slow forward movement towards the East....Meantime 1022 MB high pressure remains in the about the same area...This will cause Southerly to Southwesterly winds to prevail over the FA....This should allow for another nice warm day.Winds will be somewhat stronger today than yesterday..By 18z Saturday Cold front is forecasted to be knocking on the ND,SD border...By 00z Sunday we find the cold front through the Central parts of ND,and SD...This shifts to the Eastern ND,and SD/far Western MN by 06z Sunday...So with the slower movement have kept showers out of the forecast for Saturday night...12z Sunday cold front should be into Central MN...With moisture flowing Northwards have decide to keep rain in for Sunday/Sunday night...Cold front really does not make into the FA...So may have to warm temps up on Monday...For now will leave forecast stand...With clouds and rain showers around some mixing of the cooler air aloft should keep temps in check...We will need to watch this though.....

***UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS***

500 MB charts showing a trof digging into the Northwest part of CONUS....With ridging still through the Central part of the Country..With another trof out over the Northeast part of the Country...Trof moves Closer to the FA on Sunday upper level jet comes crashing into the area on 40 KTS..See no reason why to remove rain chances on Sunday....Rain mixing with and changing to snow on Tuesday night still looks plausible as enough cold air is forecasted to be in place..More on this later,,,,

***FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN AREAS***

Today fog burning off before the 9 AM hr....Sunny with winds South winds around 5 to 10 MPH..Highs lower 50s...Tonight...PC with South winds 10 to 15 MPH lows in the middle 30s...Sunday mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers,,Highs upper 40s to lower 50s....Monday through Tuesday Rain Monday highs in the lower middle to upper 40s....Slight chance of rain Tuesday highs in the middle 40s..Tuesday night rain/snow lows in the lower 30s

***FORECAST FOR THE CENTRAL AREAS***

Today fog burning off around the 9 AM hr....Otherwise sunny skies with South around 5 to 10 MPH highs in the lower 50s...Tonight becoming cloudy winds South 5 to 10 MPH lows in the upper 30s...Sunday a chance of rain highs in the upper 40s....Monday through Tuesday....Rain on Monday with highs in the middle 40s....Rain Tuesday and rain and snow on tap for Tuesday night with highs in the upper 30s...Lows in the upper 20s...

***FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS***

Fog burning off by 10 AM or so, Sunny skies with South winds around 5 to 10 MPH highs in the middle 50s...Tonight becoming cloudy lows in the upper 30s with South/Southeast winds 5 to 10 MPH....15 MPH.....Sunday a chance of rain with highs in the lower 50s...Monday through Tuesday...Rain on Monday with highs in the middle 40s....Rain for Tuesday with highs in the lower 40s Rain mixed with snow changing to all snow Tuesday night.....

***EXTENDED FORECAST ***

Here is where the major headaches begin....GFS and ECMWF Still not seeing eye to eye on the storm system that cloud pose problems on Wednesday/Wednesday night,and maybe into early Thanksgiving day....Lets break this down...First off lets look at the GFS model....

This will be the 00z run.....Monday GFS has a 1011 MB low pressure system over North Central SD..By Tuesday low is forecasted to drop into Southwest MN and weaken by a MB or two....On Wednesday GFS takes this low through Western WI,and weakens said low to around 1009 MBS...By Thursday said low well off to our Northeast into Canada....Now if this was to play out...My forecast area would remain on the warm side and would see mostly rain...With a chance of rain mixing with snow Wednesday night....If we look into the late weekend....GFS has a 1002 MBS low pressure over Northern MT/Southern Canada on Saturday...GFS pushes this low Southeast to around Southern WI/Northern IL and deepens it to 997 MBS on Sunday..Monday GFS bombs this low out over far Eastern MI at 988 MBS..What would this mean if this was to verify for the FA...Well we should see all snow from this system,however with strong intensification some warmer air may get pulled into parts of the FA for rain/snow.freezing rain mix before ending as snow....Also would mean a rather windy weekend on tap....This was a big change from it's 18z run....

Ok lets now look at the ECMWF model....

Starting with Monday also...ECMWF model has a 1005 MB low pressure over Northern WY..By Tuesday said low drops into Southwestern NE/Northwestern KS...On Wednesday this model bring the low into Southern West IA/Northeast KS then moves low Northeast to Eastern WI South of Green Bay on Thursday....By Friday said low is forecasted to be around Northeast part MI and deepens to around 1004 by this time frame....Looking into the weekend....ECMWF has dropped the storm system.on it's 00z run...Was still on it's 12z run..See forecast below on what the track was then....So what I did is run with ECWMF model,however did blend in some of GFS ensemble...Either way this extend forecast is tricky leading to a low confidence level....Reason I ran with more of the ECMWF is how good it did at forecasting the weather pattern we now have over head.Also for the most part the consistent of it's past runs....

We will have daily updates as next week is a major Holiday travel for lots of people..So be sure to check in everyday for the latest on what could be not one but twp possible snow storms to effect the area....

Friday, November 20, 2009

The forecast for Western and Northwestern WI

Forecast headaches,yes there are afew issues we have to work out.....1 is how long to keep the above normal temps going.2 when to bring in the colder air...3 when to bring in rain chances 4 when to change the rain to snow....If that was not enough when to time the next storm system that may bring us a white Thanksgiving....




***CURRENT CONDITIONS***

At this 3 AM hr all stations reporting cloudy skies...Most are reporting fog...Temps in the lower to middle 40s found are wide....Fog should not be to big of deal for most spots this morning....

***SFC ANALYSIS***



This morning's SFC charts shows..An areas of Low pressure that brought the FA some rain yesterday morning now Northeast of the area...Still clouds hanging tight....Those should be clearing through out the morning as RH values drop....Meanwhile large areas of 1024 MB high pressure down in the TN Valley will keep the temps mild today with with winds South/Southwest....High pressure controls the weather out over the Rockies...Next system of interests is now coming on the Northwestern States Coast line........

***UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS***

Upper level low spinning it's wheels over Western/Central MI this morning is forecasted to lift East/Northeast into Canada by this afternoon...This should be taken the clouds with it...Ridge is forecasted to build back into the area for today and the first day of deer hunting.Looks like the trof out West build into the FA Sunday and hold through much of next week with afew areas of SFC low pressure systems working Northeast....Will talk about that in the extended forecast....Meanwhile the trof is forecasted to slowly bring in colder temps back into the area by Tuesday...

***FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN AREAS***

Today fog burning off before the 10 AM hr....Skies becoming PC with winds SW to South winds around 5 to 8 MPH..Highs middle 40s.....Tonight...PC with South winds calm to 5 MPH lows in the lower 30s...Opening day of deer hunting brings us sunny skies with South winds 5 to 10 MPH...With warm highs in the upper 40s.....Saturday night cloudy with a slight chance of rain showers lows in the lower 40s....Sunday mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers,,Highs still warm upper 40s....Monday through Tuesday Rain and snow Monday highs in the lower 40s....Slight chance of snow Tuesday highs in the middle 30s

***FORECAST FOR THE CENTRAL AREAS***

Today fog burning off around the 9 AM hr....Otherwise skies becoming PC with West Southwest around 5 MPH highs in the upper 40s...Tonight PC winds calm lows in the lower 30s...Some of our cooler spots could dip into the upper 20s....Saturday...Deer hunters will be warm under sunny skies and Southwest/South winds around 10 to 15 MPH...Highs in the upper 40s...May see some 50s at some spots...Saturday night becoming cloudy lows in the upper 30s...Will keep rain chances out of the forecast for now....Sunday a chance of rain highs in the upper 40s....Monday through Tuesday....Rain on Monday with highs in the middle 40s....Rain and snow on tap for Tuesday with highs in the middle 30s...

***FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS***

Fog burning off by 8 AM or so PC with Southwest/South winds around 10 to 15 MPH highs in the lower 50s...Tonight PC lows in the lower 30s with Light South/Southwest winds....Saturday..Sunny warm highs in the middle 50s with South/Southwest winds around 10 to 15 MPH..Saturday night increasing clouds lows in the upper 30s...Sunday a chance of rain with highs in the lower 50s...Monday through Tuesday...Rain on Monday with highs in the middle 40s....Rain and snow for Tuesday with highs in the upper 30s...

***EXTENDED FORECAST ***

On Wednesday we see a 1004 MB low pressure over far Eastern WI per GFS model...However it's fast to pull out so any rain/snow will be fast to end..540 line well to our South so any rain should be changing to snow by Tuesday night and ending by midmorning Wednesday..Now looking at the ECMWF model we see another story....On Monday we see a low pressure forming over CO..By Wednesday the low lifts Northeast to SW IA then by Thursday said low is forecasted to be over Northeast WI....Cold enough air will be in place for all snow....If ECMWF model does verify we could be dealing with a snow storm for parts of the FA for Wednesday night into Thanksgiving day.....We will see.....As you can see models are battling with each other on what is forecasted to happen....Right now ECMWF seems to be the model of choice....What is very interesting is yet another storm system that is forecasted by this model to effect the area on Nov 29 and the 30th...Here again enough cold air in place at all levels to support all snow......I'm sure we will fine tune this forecast through out the weekend into next week...We will have daily updates as next week is a major Holiday travel for lots of people..So be sure to check in everyday for the latest on what could be not one but twp possible snow storms to effect the area....

Wednesday, November 18, 2009

More Meteor shower pictures



These are weaker ones,however click on the picture for full size and you will be able to see them...Taken this morning @ 1:15 AM...

Tuesday, November 17, 2009

Leonid meteor shower



I was able to a picture of these Meteors tonight...I took lots of pictures many have faint meteors....

Monday, November 16, 2009

Pictures of silver lake




Sunday evening I decided to go out to silver lake...I still can't believe with all the rain we had got in Oct the lake is still dropping...Was out there about 2 weeks ago and from then to now looks like the water levels dropped another foot or so....Click on pictures for full size...

Saturday, November 14, 2009

The Seven Sisters



Taken afew mins ago..This time I used my wide field lens..18-55 MM

Just some pictures





Just had to make sure I still can do daytime photography...Since I have been doing a lot of astro photography lately....Like always click on picture to see the full size.....

The forecast for Western/Northwestern WI....

Warm temps still camping out over the FA..This trend should hold through much of the upcoming work week....Temps should start to trend down wards as we get towards the end of next week...Next chance of rain comes back into play towards the Thursday night/Friday time frame...More on this in a few...


***CURRENT CONDITIONS***

Temps this morning are in the middle to upper 40s under cloudy/foggy skies..Warmest temp is found in Eau Claire 48°,while the coolest temp is found up in Ashland 44°...VSB from fog range from 1/4 mile to around a mile in some of the thicker fog....

***SFC ANALYSIS***

This morning SFC Charts shows a 1004 MB low pressure system over Eastern MN/Western WI....With a cold front reaching North and South from said low..Meanwhile a week area of high pressure is center over ND and another area over Eastern WY...A cold front is located from Western MT back towards Northern CA...We find a very strong 998 MB low pressure off the NC Coast...This could lead to some forecast issues.....Low pressure over our neck of the woods is forecasted to lift Northeast and weaken during the day...This should bring the end to rain through out the area as the day flies by....1027 MB high pressure out over the Western states is forecasted to start to slowly push towards the area...By Sunday this high should be located in Western MT and should be around 1037 MBS.....Ridge of 1037 high pressure will build into the area and should keep our skies mostly sunny to sunny through much of the new work week...Can you say blocking pattern...That is what appears to be taking shape...Some in part is do to the low out over the Eastern Coastal areas...As it will just meander around for a few days...

***SFC/MID/ UPPER LEVEL DISCUSSION***

Main story here is the upper level blocking pattern setting up...Models are not really seeing eye to eye on this...However Am going to run with GFS has it has been more bullheaded about this all week...ECMWF has been all over the place,so not much weight given into ECMWF model ATTM....This will allow for much of the Western/Central US to be dry and warm..Our upper level winds will be Westerly so not much cooling of the column...So temps should be at or above norms must of the new work week.....Upper level low is forecasted to to move Southeast into the Rockies then out into KS,then towards the FA by Thursday night into Friday this will bring in a slight chance of rain by this time frame...Will have to see how strong and how long the blocking pattern will hold...May have to pull rain chances out of the forecast

***FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN AREAS***

Areas of fog this morning with a chance of rain...Rain should be ending around the afternoon hour....Cloudy with highs around 40 to 45..Winds North/Northwest around 10 MPH.Tonight becoming PC with lows around 26 to 29...Light winds out of the North/Northwest...Sunday...Mostly sunny highs 42 to 45 winds becoming SW 5 to 10 MPH....Monday through Thursday....Mostly to sunny skies highs in the middle to upper 40s with lows in the middle to upper 20s warming to the middle 30s by Thur night...With a chance of rain Thur night into Fri..

***FORECAST FOR THE CENTRAL AREAS***

Areas of fog this morning with a chance of rain and mist ending around noon,cloudy highs 45 to 48...Winds NW around 10 MPH...Tonight PC skies with lows in the upper 20s winds becoming calm...Sunday Mostly sunny highs in the middle to upper 40s with lows in the middle to upper 20s....Monday through Thur...Most to sunny skies highs in the middle to upper 40s with lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s,warming to the middle 30s by Thur night....Slight chance of rain for Thur night into Fri.....

***FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS***

Areas of mist this morning should become to an end before the noon hr.cloudy with highs in the upper 40s to around 50 or so..Winds W/NW around 10 MPH...Tonight PC with light to calm winds lows in the upper 20s...Sunday...Sunny with highs in the upper 40s to around 50....Lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s....Monday through Thur...Mostly to sunny skies with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s...Lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s,warming into the middle 30s by Wed night and Thur night....A chance of rain comes in Thur night and last into Friday...

***EXTENDED FORECAST ***

Not much time to look at the long range forecast....Plus with the possible blocking pattern setting up that will cause all sorts of problems in the longer term forecast....

Tuesday, November 10, 2009

Astro photography




Last night was warm so I decdied to do some astro photography...Pictures taken bewteen 7 & 7:30 PM ..Was pointing the camera East/Northest...I think the Galaxy I got is the Andromeda or M31...I didn't have my laptop with me so really not 100% sure...Also took pictures of the Pleiades M45 or AKA the seven sisters......The one picture I took was taken on Saturday night..Not sure what the red glow is...It did not last long..I tired to get another picture of it but it didn't show up....

Sunday, November 1, 2009

October recap

October went down in being the 4 th wettest on record...Records date back to 1949....This was EAU records since I didn't find nothing for Rice Lake...What is still rather interesting is with all the rain/snow we did get this past month,we are still in a severe drought as of 10/27/09..This has eased some,however Counties still in the severe drought would be as follows...Northern 1/3 of Barron County,Far Northeastern Polk County,and Far Northwestern Rusk County...Along with points North of of said Counties.....Counties still in the moderate drought.....Central Barron,rest of Eastern Polk County,and Central Rusk County....Areas in the abnormally dry area.....Far Southern Barron,Rusk,the rest of Polk County,Northern part of ST.Croix,Northern 1/2 of Dunn and Chippewa Counties..See the NIDIS website for more info...They are forecasting an ongoing drought with some improvement..Forecast runs through Jan 2010.....If time allows I will take some pictures of Silver lake today just to show you so far the rain/snow really has not helped out to much for the bigger and deeper lakes..The rainfall/snowfall did help out the smaller lakes,ponds,and smaller rivers....Main thing the rain/snow did help out with was to bring the soil moisture up!




So back to Barron County....Here is how things went down...We did have a very wet October..Well above normal in rain and snowfall....Temps were once again colder than normal.....There were no thunderstorm days ...There was 5 snow days in Oct.....I day with non thunderstorm wind damage....



SNOW DAYS.....



Oct 10 had 0.25 inches of snow..



Oct.12 3.25 inches of snow...



Oct.15 2.00 inches of snow...



Oct.23 3.3.75 inches of snow...



Oct 31..1.00 of snow...(fell over night,melted by 8-9 AM)....



Total snowfall for Oct stands at.. 10.25 inches of snow....All snow totals are from The Weather Center.....

Oct 30..Very strong winds made a visit to the area...This did cause some wind damage...See post below for that info....

Saturday, October 31, 2009

Halloween forecast & some safe tips!

Halloween forecast....


For today light snow should becoming to an end this morning..Winds will be rather strong yet today,shouldn't as yesterday...However some gusts up to the 25 to 30 MPH range still possible.Highs today either side of 40 today...

We have issued a ghost and gobbling warning for this evening...The warning goes into effect from the hours of 5 PM and runs through 8 PM..Will talk about this in second or two....Temps for said time frame should be falling into the middle 30s....Winds will becoming lighter as we head through the evening hours....

***GHOST AND GOBBLING WARNING***



The Weather Center has issued a ghost and gobbling warning for this evening..From 5 PM through 8 PM...However there still may be some scattered Ghost and Goblins through 10 PM this evening....Main activity is forecast to occur from 5 PM through 8 PM...Not only are we forecasting ghost and goblins there will other creatures and things of such nature....If one has not prepared for this event you still have sometime...Things needed lots of candy...

***TIPS ON MAKING THIS A SAFE HALLOWEEN FOR THE KIDS***



Unlike the good old days were kids were free to roam from door to door,now days parents need to really be with their kids as we all know kids go missing from being abducted.This is why parents need to go with their kids,NOT your older kids as they could also end up being abducted..Yes even in this part of Wisconsin things can happen,Though many parents say it don't..I say wake up and see the light people....I can go on and on about this topic however AM not going to....Also parents will want to look at their kids candy/fruit before kids start eating it..Yes there are strange people out there that will poison or add things to the candy...Only take kids to houses of people you know!...Have them in so type of reflected clothing....I know this does put a damper on Halloween,but it needs to be said more often then not...Every year we read about this in the news or see it on TV.....

So with all that said....Have a safe fun filled Halloween!

Friday, October 30, 2009

Strong storm system effecting the area.

Strong storm system has been effecting the area has brought 1/2 inch to 1 inch rainfalls across the area yesterday and through out the over night hrs...This system also has brought in warmer air to the area...However temps are slowly dropping here at the office....High was 59° at 10 AM this morning now down to 57°...This system also has brought in some very low pressure readings....Here we are now down to 29.22 and still falling....The lowest reading I find through out my FA is Superior...29.08...The next lowest pressure reading I found is Siren 29.13....


This system also has brought very gusts winds to the area....Winds have been gusting up to 25 to 30 MPH..Highest wind gusts so far have been from points East of Siren and Cumberland...We winds have been gusting in the 30 to 40 MPH range this late morning into the this afternoon...At 1:00 PM The highest winds gusts I see are up in Ashland with 38 MPH,Rice Lake has wind gusts up to 31 MPH here at the office 6 miles Northwest we have wind gusts at 34 MPH as of 1 PM....See my post below for damage pictures caused by the winds...This morning 10:45 to 11:10 I'm sure winds were gusting close to 45 to 50 Plus MPH..To cause trees to snap like I saw....Just checked my weather station for the wind gusts it was 51.9 MPH @ 10:47 AM....
 
Just to show you how fast the pressure is falling we are now down to 29.20 MBS...

NON THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE


Left work at 10 Am this morning had to make a few stops then headed home...Drove through a very heavy rain shower...Then hit very highs winds...Got on HWY V saw some 4 to 6 inch tress down...Did call that into the NWS...Got on my road and saw like 4 of the neighbors calf hutches were blowing across the road into the ditch on the other side,with one still part way on the road...Called that into the NWS....Help moved the calf hutches back to were they belonged....Got home and had a 6 inch tree snapped off about a 3/4 down or 1/4 up....Did get my camera and went back out to HWY V and got pictures,also pictures from my yard...Speaking of which there are many tree branches down again....


EST.Rainfall from radar data


As you can see most of my forecast area did pick up between 1/2 inch to around an inch of rain..From the radar view of EST STP(storm total precipitation)..Here at The Weather Center we picked up 0.83 inches of rain

Thursday, October 29, 2009

Site update/Website update also...

While this morning still sick but feeling a little better Am going back to work tomorrow thank God for that as I'm going crazy being at home this long,Not a good way to waste vac.time but what can one do..Anyway being bored out of my mind I decide to make some big changes to this blog...Some of the changes that were made this morning are as follows...A new forecasting template,that I designed in another program...This had appeared the other day,however I added to it,as the Northern,Central and Southern area forecast..Had many emails about making the forecast easier...So that should help...Still working on the forecast icons,as of right now still not happy with them,but slowly coming along..May work on that through out this long boring day,as I don't have a headache....Also went through and changed the color of my blog....Added a temperature converter in the bottom part of the blog..So big changes did happen and this will be ongoing for sometime...
WEBSITE UPDATE..
Did also update my website yesterday...Added August 8th and 19th pictures...

The forecast for Western/Northwestern WI

Will try to get through this,as Am still sick.....Forecast problems for today through Saturday....Rain chances along with a few thunderstorms,heavy rainfall is possible.Winds tonight and Friday could become strong..Then snow chances Friday night into Saturday...Lots to talk about this forecast cycle.....

***CURRENT CONDITIONS***

This morning we find temps rather warm,from the middle 40s to the lower 50s....Warm spot is found in Siren with 56° the cool spot is Ashland coming in at 44°....Thinking the Siren station is having some problems compared to the rest of the stations....Dewpoints have rose into the middle to upper 40s across the FA...There is some fog around the area...Stations that are reporting fog are as follows...Ladysmith,New Richmond,Rice Lake,and Osceola...Winds range from calm to around 10 MPH from the E/SE....Radar is showing some returns through out the FA,however ATTM nothing is being reported in the SFC OBS....

***SFC ANALYSIS***

SFC charts this morning shows a features of interests...First one being a 1009 MB low pressure system centered over Central Manitoba Canada...Stationary front reaches from said low down through Eastern ND and SD into NE....The main area of interest this morning is a 999 MB low pressure system over Southern KS along with a 1002 MB low over CO with yet another low pressure over TX....Meanwhile we find a 1022 MB high pressure system centered over the OH Valley....

***SFC/MID/ UPPER LEVEL DISCUSSION***

Looking at the 500 MB chart....The upper level low is centered over New Mex this morning..50 to 60 KTS jet kicking into the area this morning from the Southwest...As this upper level low moves North/Northeast upper level jet is forecasted to increase to 125 to 150 KTS over the area...Looking at the 300 MB charts we find the upper level low a little more West and North,however winds at this level flowing into the FA around 80 KTS winds are forecasted to increase to around 150 KTS by Fri afternoon from the SW....Meantime the 850 MB charts showing winds from the South at 20 to 25 KTS this morning as we head into this afternoon winds increase to 35 to 40 KTS from the South/Southeast...So rather strong upper level support in place with this storm system....At the SFC using the GFS/ECMWF/NAM....Did do some blending for this forecast...Models have trended with a more South track than before and slower in moving the storm system....
However this really has not changed things to much...Big change is the dry slot that was forecasted to shut down the rain for tonight should be shunted off to the East of the FA,meaning higher rain chances for the area tonight into Fri....

SFC low is forecasted to lift NE into the Central Plains by this evening/tonight....By time 06z Fri hits the low should be in SW MN and should be around 993 MBS..By 12z said low should be in West Central MN(around the hump area) MBS drop to around 990-992..This low will also push an occluded front into my Western/Southern FA By 00z Sat said low races for the NE part of MN/Western Lake Superior..This will have pushed said front through the entire area....Meanwhile a cold front will be working it's way through the FA...Low pressure is forecasted to deepen to around 984 MBS by this time...The track of this system is still somewhat in the air still..PWATS do increase to around 1.00" to as high as 1.50" Thinking as of right now this may be a little high,nevertheless still look for areas of heavy rainfall,thinking is to run with a widespread 1/2" to 1.00" of rain a few areas could see more with any thunderstorms....Speaking of thunderstorms....With LLJ forecasted to become stronger and destabilization forecasted by this afternoon,along with LIS down to 0....Should see a few thunderstorms through out the day into this evening.....Temps will be mild through Fri morning and then should be dropping through out the day......

***FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN AREAS***

Today rain will become likely under cloudy skies winds from the SE from 5 to 10 MPH with gusts up around 20 MPH.Highs today around 50...Tonight rain likely temps holding if not going up a degree or two 50 to 52...South/Southeast winds around 10 MPH with gust up to 20 MPH..
Friday a chance of showers with temps slowly falling through out the day highs start in the 50s falling to the middle 40s by late afternoon.Winds becoming SW/W around 10 to 15 MPH with gust up to around 20 MPH..Friday night cloudy with a chance of rain/snow showers become all snow showers after midnight...Lows in the 30s...West winds around 10 to 15 MPH with gusts around 20 to 25 MPH...Sat shall remain cloudy with highs around 40 Sunday rain and snow showers move back into the area..With all snow showers Sunday night with lows right around 30....

***FORECAST FOR THE CENTRAL AREAS***

Today cloudy with showers and few thunderstorms likely SE winds 10 to 15 MPH with gusts around 20 MPH..Highs today in the lower to middle 50s..Tonight rain likely maybe a thunderstorm early...Lows around 50 with S/SE winds around 15 to 20 MPH with gusts up to 25 MPH...Friday Cloudy windy highs in the middle 50s then falling through out the day,there is a chance of rain showers through out the day...S/SW winds 15 to 20 MPH with gust from 25 MPH to around 30 MPH..Friday night cloudy with a chance of rain and snow showers becoming all snow showers after midnight...Lows in the 30s still gusts winds,up to 20 to 25 MPH...Saturday cloudy highs lower 40s. lows in the lower 30s once again...Sunday..PC in the Northern Central areas with PC to mostly sunny rest of the area,highs in the lower to middle 40s with lows in the lower to middle 30s.....

***FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS***

Today..Showers and a few thunderstorms likely highs under cloudy skies in the middle to upper 50s with E/SE winds 10 to 15 MPH with gusts up to 20 MPH..Tonight lows in the middle 50s with showers and a few thunderstorms likely..Winds 15 to 20 MPH with gust from 20 to 25 MPH..Friday a chance of showers with cloudy skies.Winds S/SW from 10 to 20 MPH with gust around 25 to 30 MPH.Highs start out in the upper 50s then fall through out the day..Friday night,a chance of rain and snow showers with lows in the middle 30s winds still rather gusty...SW/W from 10 to 20 MPH with gusts up to 25 MPH...Saturday,mostly sunny with highs in the middle 40s with lows in the upper 30s....

***EXTENDED FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY***

Look for a dry period..May see some rain/snow showers in my Northern areas on Monday dry elsewhere's look for highs ranging from Lower 40s North to lower to middle 40s Central and middle to upper 40s South...Lows in the middle to upper 20s North to upper 20s to lower 30s Central to around 30 South....