Friday, December 31, 2010

Short term forecast munber 2 (last one)

Radar still showing areas of light freezing rain/sleet/and light snow over the following Counties….Barron Chippewa, Eastern Dunn, Burnett, Washburn, Douglas… All this actively is moving North…. Look for  areas of light freezing drizzle/flurries throughout the rest of night over the rest of the FA…. Said Counties above have a better chance at light precip throughout the rest of the night…. However upper level drying will limit the amounts of sleet/ice/snow accumulations… Still there will be slick spots on untreated road ways and overpasses along with sidewalks…. This will be the last short term update on this system, unless things change big time..

Short term forecast.

At 3:42 PM The Weather Center’s Radar is tracking some freezing rain mixed with sleet over Eastern MN along with another area of light freezing rain over Central Polk County..This activity is pushing North and building slightly Northeast… Will see more of an off and on light wintery mix through the rest of the afternoon and into this evening before changing over to all snow…


Will drop snowfall amount to around an inch,will be lucky to see that…. Thunderstorms in the South this morning robbed deep level moisture from returning back into the area, also a dry slot will work into the area… With all dynamics over Central and Western MN…. This has been the area for snow… So once again dropping snow totals to around an inch… That is we are lucky…

Forecast for Western/Northwestern WI plus an updated snowfall map.

Storm system number 2 set to hit the area… This will be bring more of a wintery mix to the FA….Ranging from Freezing rain to sleet to snow…


The heaviest snow will stay out over Western to Central MN with only light accumulations throughout the FA….

***CURRENT CONDTIONS***

At the 7 AM hr skies are cloudy with temps in the middle teens to middle 20s… Ashland and Hayward are the warmest with temps 29 in Ashland and 24 in Hayward… Thinking they may be to warm when looking at other readings… Winds range from calm to around 12 MPH from the West….

***FORECAST DISCUSSION & ANALYSIS***

First low pressure system is now centered over Western Lake Superior… The cold front that came through last night is now well into Central WI…This has allow for CAA to overcome the FA… Our next storm system is centered over Far North Central OK..NAM has this area of low pressure moving darn near North slightly Northeast to Northwestern MO then to Southeast MN by later tonight..Then Nam moves this low into Central MN before pushing it to Western Lake Superior….Even with that track there will enough low level cold air in place to have a wintery mix today through this evening…. Looking at the GFS model for the most part the track of said low is about the same ECWMF is close a little more East with the track…. Either way not enough to effect the FA….Have updated the snow map this morning to reflect current thinking as to where the snow will setup at….. As far as ice accumulations goes should be around 0.1 or less… Still would be enough to cause some slippery roads… This would be mainly in my Central to Southern areas… While my Far Central and Northern areas see more snow mix in… Here is where we could see a total storm amount from 2 to 5 inches….. Less than an inch South of there see map for that info…. Temps will be cooler today and will stay at or slightly below normal for much of the first week of the New Year… Longer term forecast still looks like its on track so will leave that run.. See forecast below for that….

Thursday, December 30, 2010

***WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY***

The NWS has issued a winter weather advisory for my Central and Southern Zones From 12 PM Friday morning through 6 AM Saturday morning.... I do think this will be issued for my Northern areas also.

Forecast for Western/Northwestern WI.

Lots to talk about with the weather in the very near term and middle term which will take us from the rest of today through the weekend… We will talk about rain, freezing rain, sleet, snow…Cold temps….Most of the areas now reporting rain we did have some sleet mixed in from time to time here at the office, however it’s back to all rain once again.


***CURRENT CONDITIONS***

Temps throughout the FA are in the middle 30s with some upper 30s in my Southern areas, along with Ashland….. Light rain is also reported at this hr… Winds are from the South/Southeast from 5 to 15 MPH with a few gusts up to 20 MPH… Still some fog showing up in the SFC OBS..

***FORECAST DISCUSSION & ANALYSIS***

First off we shall talk about the first storm system.

Using the RUC model we find the first storm system centered over Northwest IA as of 18z…The low pressure is right around the 988 MBS of pressure.. The WV satellite also confirms this rather well…This low is forecasted by the RUC to move into South Central MN by tonight then far Northwestern WI tomorrow morning as it does it will weaken down to around 995 MBS…

Looking at the NAM 12z run…. It has the system centered over KS which does not line up at with the WV satellite imagery….NAM does take the low pressure system into South Central MN then into through Northwestern WI then to the UP of MI as it does it weakens the low to 1000 MBS..

The 12z GFS is in agreement with RUC/NAM models…The 12z ECWMF shows about the same path of said storm.. A tad East though… Still won’t really make that much difference in our weather…..Colder air does work into this system on Friday…. So for today will run with most rain, however there could be areas of mixed precip from time to time….Highs shall remain right where they are middle to upper 30s for the rest of today….There still will be areas of fog from time to time also…. Tonight temps drop into the upper 20s/lower 30s…. Steady rain will becoming to an end at 10 pm or so… We will see freezing drizzle after that throughout the night time, which could lead to some slick spots….

Now lets talk about system number two, much stronger and it has colder air to work with….Looking at the 12z run off the GFS we find a 986 MB low pressure taken shape over Southern CO GFS moves this system do East into the TX panhandle area by later tonight or earlier tomorrow morning..Later in the day GFS tracks this low into Northwest MO, then into Southeastern MN be Friday night/early Saturday morning…Then throughout the day GFS keep said low right on the MN/WI border as it moves to Duluth NM, Then over Western Lake Superior…. The low does deepen to around 994 MBS of pressure as it tracks through far Eastern MN.Far Western WI…GFS shifted the track more Westwards then from it’s 00z run…

Lets look at the 12z run off the ECWMF model…

This model tracks the storm a little more East then GFS has the system a little weaker 998 MBS by time it moves into the UP of MI..There was a shift more East with the track of the storm from the 00z run….

Looking at the 12z NAM it shows about the same as GFS, but much weaker low pressure and colder air throughout the FA….

So as one can see the models still do agree on the second storm system just yet….We will run with more of a wintery mix from Friday afternoon into early Friday evening, then switch whatever moisture that is left into all snow… There still is some concerns about a dry slot pushing into the FA if this does play out we may not see much of anything until we get some wrap around moisture later Friday night into Saturday morning… Then is will be just light snow/flurries….

Friday is looking like this strong cold front pushes into and just to the east of the area so temps from Thursday’s night lows will start to fall by mid morning to around the noon hr.. So we should start the day with some light rain then changing over to freezing rain and sleet before changing over to all snow by Friday night….Friday night temps drop like a rock into the single digits above zero…. Winds will pick up to 10 to 20 MPH with gusts reaching up to around 25 MPH…

Will keep a slight chance of snow going throughout Saturday afternoon as wrap around moisture drops South into the area….. Saturday night is looking to see temps below zero… Right around -5 seems to work out…. Sunday we will be lucky to get to around 10 above…. Monday looks to be warmer with temps back in the lower 20s..Next small chance of snow comes in around the Monday time frame…..

For now we will let the snowfall map stand the way it is… If needed it will be changed tomorrow afternoon….

***LONGER TERN FORECAST JAN 4TH THROUGH JAN 15TH***

To start this time frame we still may have some light snow around into early Tuesday morning..Then we settle into a dry period Jan 12…Next storm system could start to effect the area Late Jan 12th through early Jan 13th time frame…This system will have enough cold air in place for an all snow event.. Temps through this time frame Should average out to be around normal to below normal…. Still not seeing any big Arctic dumps…..

The longer term forecast is way out in time so this subject to change…..

Wednesday, December 29, 2010

Updated forecast

Just as thought highs never made it into the 40s…Nevertheless it was a rather warm day… Lots to talk about in the very short term through the weekend…One big mess we will try to work out…

***CURRENT CONDITIONS***

Temps at this hr are in the middle 30s…Skies range from clear to partly cloudy with hazy…Winds are out of the South for the most part 7 to 16 MPH with some gusts up to 21 MPH…..Dewpoints in the middle 20s to upper 20s..

***FORECAST DISCUSSION***

First off tonight fog will become quit thick across much of the FA…This will also lead to some freezing drizzle Lows tonight shall fall back into middle 20s…Tomorrow’s system is not as bad as once thought… All the snow will remain over in MN, however my Central and Northern zones shall see freezing rain throughout much of the day… There are some indications that may still be some plain old rain mainly in my Southern zones….. I still think models are over doing the warm air coming in as today was a great example of that… If I would have ran with what the models were saying for highs today they would have been in the lower to middle 40s across much of the area… So still liking the idea to keep temps below model guidance, which would lead to more freezing rain versus rain…. First Low pressure is forecasted to move out of Southwestern KS into Southeastern MN, then almost right over head another reason to run with colder temps for the FA as we are on the border line of much warmer air to our East and Southeast…. Right now don’t feel the freezing rain will be a major ice event as was thinking early this week….As the low pulls off the Northeast it will drag a cold front through the area this front is forecasted to stall just to the East of my FA…

Second and deeper low pressure to effect the area…. This low is forecasted to ride up along the stalled cold front late Friday night into Saturday this low will be just East of the forecast area so for now will keep the snowfall map below …. There still is some timing issues and the track is still somewhat up in the air.. Though models have trended this secondary low a little more to the East…. Thinking Friday through Friday night will be an all snow event for the area…. With a small chance of snow in the afternoon on Saturday…. Models do agree that this system will be a wind jammer so what snow does fall will be blown around on New Year’s day…. Temps on Friday will be falling from the upper 20s to low 30s Friday morning into the teens by Friday evening….. Cold temps will once again rule through Wednesday of next week…Also should be dry through Sunday through Wedensday…..

Tuesday, December 28, 2010

TOTAL SNOWFALL FORECASTED AMOUNTS

The map below is our forecasted total snowfall amounts ATTM this is how we see things.. This will mainly happen with the secondary low pressure system as it rides Northeast along a cold front that is forecasted to push into the area later Friday/ Friday night... The higher amounts shall be in my Northwestern parts of the FA with lesser amounts in my Eastern and Southern areas.... Timing of the cold front/ low pressure system will play into the amounts... This forecast map is subject to change from now to Friday.... We will issue a detailed forecast this evening,or the latest tomorrow morning...

Forecast stands

After looking at the 00z model runs from all models Am going to let the forecast ride for at least now.. Really see no reason to change it yet... Will see what the 12z runs have to offer up....There is still some concern on the track of both systems to effect the area,along with a few other issues...

Monday, December 27, 2010

Forecast for Western/Northwestern WI

Forecast problems…. Near term none just one word to sum this period up…Dull…. Medium term things get to be interesting…. Longer term forecasted looks to bring down an Arctic blast…Something we haven’t seen in awhile now…. Lots to hash out so let’s get right to it… Shall we?


***CURRENT CONDITIONS***

Temps range from the upper teens to the middle 20s… Skies are mostly sunny.Winds South to Southwest ranging from 6 to 16 MPH with some gusts up to 22 MPH being reported…

***FORECAST DISCUSSION & ANLAYSIS***
Looking at the 12z NAM run we find a ridge of high pressure over the area… Winds have become South/Southwest…This will keep the FA high and dry right through WED… Temps are forecasted to warm near 30°… With lows in the teens….
Wednesday night things begin to change….Early Wednesday we see a 999 MB low pressure system coming on to shore over the Northern CA/Southern OR area This low is then forecasted to push into ID and is forecasted to deepen to around 981 MBS… By late Wednesday night the low is forecasted to be centered over Northeast WY…. This shall push a warm front towards the area, which should cause a mix precip type… Profiles/bufkit data shows a freezing rain… Don’t think that will happen to well after 2 AM…. The low is then forecasted to push into North Central MN and weaken to around 995 MBS… Meantime GFS forms another low over the TX panhandle.. Late Thursday night, this low is forecasted to push into Southwest WI, and deepen to around 999 MBS… The low is then forecasted to push into North Central WI then to North of Lake Superior and deepen to around 992 MBS.. This is per GFS…Which once again things have changed big time…..

Now let’s look at the ECWMF model..
This model is now beginning to show a track of the low pressure more to the East and South then it 00Z runs…. This model does not show a second low pressure system like GFS does… GEM-GLB keeps the system way to the west of the area.. UKEMT mode has a track more in line with ECWMF how this model does have a secondary low pressure that is forecasted to move Northeast… This model also has been trending more to the East and South with said system….
Some of the models show very warm air being pushed into the FA… I don’t believe 40s at all not with the deep snow pack across the FA and South and West of here along with Southeast of here… Winds will be blowing over this deep snow pack… So I think temps in the lower 30s look to more of a bet….
Will run with freezing rain South of a line from Balsam Lake over to Barron then just South of Bruce for Wednesday night through Friday…. North of that line Am going to run with snow, sleet, and some freezing rain…. Later Friday afternoon/early evening a cold front is forecasted to push into and through the area this will change everything over to all snow….. Best areas as of right now to see accumulating snows will be North of a Balsam lake to Barron to Bruce line…..Points South of said line won’t see as much in the way of snowfall amounts….Not even going to try to pin point amounts this far out…

To recap…

I don’t think it will be as warm as some models are showing…Deep snowpack across the upper Midwest

The track of the system is starting to trend more East and now slightly South once again..Which would keep the warmer temps well to our South/Southeast.

Thinking is as of right now this could be an ice storm for many places South of Balsam Lake to Barron to Bruce line…. North of this line its going to be a mess with mixed precip…

So with the 12z models runs in and looking at all the data from each one and the bufkit data this is how we see it for now… Confidence levels are still rather low on precip types/ However rather high on the temps…..

Sunday, December 26, 2010

Don't believe any thing you see or hear about this late week storm... See below onto why..

Well after 2.50 inches of snow that fell on the 23 -24 we will have dull forecast through much of the week… Later in the week we are watching a storm system that could bring us all kinds of precip…. I’m not going to talk about it this far out really makes no since at this time…Here is why… From the time the long range forecasting models picked up on this… There has been no agreement between them… The track of the system keeps changing, the amount of warm are that may get this far North keeps changing back and forth….So we will talk about this once things become better in line….. However people that do have plans to be on the roads on Dec 31 through New Years should keep up with the forecasts…. Tune into The Weather Center throughout the upcoming days for the latest forecast on this storm system… I would not believe what you hear or see on this storm system not yet….. If you were to you say its going to be all snow, or you can say it’s going to be an ice storm, or you could say its going to be all rain, or you can say it won’t happen at all….. Yes this is what I have been hearing and also reading….

Tuesday, December 21, 2010

Forecast for Western/Northwestern WI

No real big concerns in the forecast, Just some light freezing drizzle changing over to some light snow/flurries… Christmas looks to be A ok no big storms in site….


***CURRENT CONDITIONS***

Most stations are reporting light now, However still in Eau Claire there is still some mixed precip…. Temps range from the middle 20s to 30…Winds from the Northeast to west throughout the FA… From 7 to 12 MPH…

***FORECAST DISCUSSION & ANALYSIS***

SFC low pressure pretty much over head… This sis draw in warmer temps in the mid to SFC levels…. Hence the light freezing drizzle were have been dealing with this morning into this afternoon…As colder air works into the area we should see this switch back over to all light snow/flurries… 1034 MB high pressure is forecasted to build into the ND tonight, By Thursday this high is forecasted to centered over Northeastern ND/Northwestern MN… This will ensure the FA some quite weather…
Weather pattern still seems to remain in a blocky pattern this will get reinforced…. Some of the models are trying to form a system that could clip Southwestern MN with some snow…For the local area high pressure should for the most part keep this system well to our West and well to our South….ECWMF forms a low pressure system over CO/NM area….Then tracks the low into and through TX before hitting the SC Coast line…This low is then forecasted to move up along the Eastern Coast line and deepen to around 970/974 MBS…Your asking by now ok what does this have to do with our weather… Well a lot if this low takes this track and indeed gets that strong this will keep systems from moving into the local area by weeks end….FA does get back into a Northwesterly flow tomorrow as… This will hold as the SFC low/upper low digs into the Northeastern states…By Christmas up and down the Eastern Coast line inland about 100 miles or so… This could be a big winter storm for that area… Upper level ridge builds into AZ all the up into Canada… Being between these two features the Northwesterly flow shall keep going… This will draw down some cooler air by the Christmas weekend, still not to bad as what it could be… Highs start of warm upper 20s then fall to around the upper tens to lower 20s by Sunday. Meanwhile lows start off in the lower 20s then fall to either side of zero by Sunday night….. Tomorrow skies should become partly to mostly cloudy…This trend will hold through Christmas Eve… There could be some light snow/flurries Thursday night and once again Friday night….Travel plans throughout the FA looks to be great unlike last year….

***LONG TERM FORECAST DEC 27th THROUGH DEC 31ST ***

This time frame will all depend on what happens with the possible Eastern storm system…For now will bank on it that it will indeed form and take the projected track…This will leave a high pressure system in control of our weather… However ECWMF is forecasting a 991 MB low pressure system to take shape over Southern MT. Northern WY area on the 30th…. This system is then forecasted to track rather fast into Northeastern MN, as it does it weakens to around 1003 MBS…. A 1031 MB high pressure system build South into MT by the 31st Winds could become rather strong across the FA on the 31st …. We will have to watch this system to see how it could have some travel impacts across the area….Still this is so far out in time I won’t get to worried about…….GFS on the other hand shows this system to come in faster..GFS also show another system for the 1st of the year. I’m having a very hard time buying into what GFS as to offer, as it seems to be the outlier most of this winter…. So as far as we can see there won’t be any prolonged Arctic blasts or really no huge snow storms….
In fact temps should be above normal with precip running close to normal…. Don’t worry snow lovers the snow we have on the ground will stay…. Temps are not forecasted to be above 32°…..

Monday, December 20, 2010

short term update number 4

More snow has moved into the area once again..Radars showing the heaviest of the snow in the following areas....Northern Barron,most of Burnett,Sawyer,and Washburn Counties.... Look for the another band of heavy snow to setup over Northern Barron, Polk,Rusk Counties along with the Southern areas of Burnett,Sawyer and Washburn Counties... Short term models in good agreement on this area this will also effect some areas in MN...For the rest of the areas look for light to maybe sometime mod snow...Still will run with the same forecasted amounts as stated below....

Short term update number 3

Heavy snow band has set over parts of Burnett,Barron,Washburn,Sawyer, and Rusk Counties.... Still snow heavy here at the office... Just a fast guess looks to be   3.00 to 4 inches... Have not be out to take a reading.... Looks like a break in the action for awhile if this snow band keeps pushing out... Which I would have thought by now it would have in said Counties above....Radar is showing another areas of snow taken shape West/Southwest of the Twin Cities Metro area.. So look for more heavy snow later....
Still thinking a good 2 to 5 inches throughout much of the FA... With 5 to 8 inches in Northern Barron,Polk,Rusk Counties,along with the Southern parts of the following Counties... Burnett,Sawyer,Washburn....

Short term update number 2

Radar is showing snow throughout my whole forecasting area... Heavy snow band is in the stages of setting up over Burnett,Southern Washburn Counties,along with Northern Barron, Polk Counties... Snowing heavy here at the office... Will get a snow reading on the next update... This will be a fast hitting storm as we see snow now coming to end just Southwest of the Twin cities Metro area....

***WINTER STORM*** Short term update number 1

Winter storm starting to effect the area..Radar showing my Central and Southern areas covered be mod snows,some areas getting towards the heavy side... Snow as already moved into much of Burnett County and into Central parts of Washburn County..Snow will keep pushing North/Northeast into the rest of my FA in the next hour or two.... I did decide to lower the storm totals some....See map below for that...

Sunday, December 19, 2010

Statement from the NWS

The NWS is thinking about the same thing we are thinking here at The Weather Center.Looks like they targeted the same areas as we did for the heaviest snow fall... Here is part of what the NWS has in the winter storm warning....
A WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF CNTL MN INTO WEST CNTL WI.FOR MON & MONDAY NIGHT. THE WARNING IS LOCATED NO. OF A LINE FROM NEAR MONTEVIDEO AND FARIBAULT IN MN.TO EAU CLAIRE WI. THE WARNING INCLUDES ALEXANDRIA.WILLMAR.HUTCHINSON.& ST CLOUD BEGINNING AT 6 AM MONDAY.THE TWIN CITIES METRO.FARIBAULT & RED WING AT 9 AM.


AND LITTLE FALLS.CAMBRIDGE.LAKE ELMO.RICE LAKE & EAU CLAIRE WI BEGINNING AT NOON. FIVE TO NINE INCHES OF SNOW ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.WITH THE HIGHER

TOTALS.7 TO 9 INCHES.OCCURRING GENERALLY NO. OF A LINE FROM ALEXANDRIA.CAMBRIDGE & RICE LAKE.

***MAJOR WINTER STORM ON ITS WAY***

Major winter storm to hit my Cental and Southern areas... As a rule 4 to 8 inches are forecasted... However the areas that will bear watching are the Northern Parts of the following Counties Barron,Polk,and Rusk... While the Southern Counties of Burnett,Sawyer,and Washburn... This is the are that could see 8 to 10 inches of snow with up to a foot of snow in many areas...Again parts of the South shore of Lake Superior could see some heavy amounts from LES...

Snowfall forecast for Monday/Monday night

This is our forecasted snowfall amounts as of right now, This could all change see forecast discussion below for the finer details on to why this could change..As of right now this based on the data we are seeing....People need to stay up to date on this possible winter storm... Most of the snow will fall Monday night... There will be some blowing and drifting, however it is not forecasted to be as bad last weekend's blizzard...Nevertheless this will cause some travel problems throughout the FA..
Next system looks to be stronger then this system more on that later in the upcoming days....Right now makes no sense in talking about it with the weather pattern we have been in.....Note I did not put in for LES which could be alot over a foot of snow could fall along parts of the South Shore of Lake Superior

***WINTER STORM FOR MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT

How things have changed from yesterday….Winter storm on its way for my central and Southern areas.. If that was not enough more snow on the way toward the end of the work week…. Temps will remain rather mild for the upcoming week….


***CURRENT CONDITIONS***

This morning we find temps ranging from 0 to 16… Depending on if an area has clear skies… As skies across the area range from clear to mostly cloudy..Winds have become SW from calm to around 8 MPH….

***FORECAST DISCUSSION & ANALYSIS***

This morning’s SFC charts we find an 991-993 MB low pressure just West of Hudson Bay Canada.. This low is forecasted to work keep Working its way Westwards... Meanwhile we find a 1022 MB high pressure off to our Southeast…. We also see our forming wither storm over the WY …. Which this discussion will mainly be on..

Today through tonight look for Partly cloudy skies with temps in the teens…Lows tonight under increasing clouds Either side of 0…

998 MB low pressure is forecasted to move from WY into Northern SD then to MN right around the Twin Cities area then the low dives into Southeast WI….. This track is more North and more East than it was forecasted yesterday… This would bring mod to heavy snows into the FA still a few things could hamper this…The main one is the dry air in place over the FA…. Along with the track of the system which is in no way set in stone yet….If this does all play out parts of the FA could see snow amount from 6 to 10 inches…Most of this will fall Monday night. Will have a map out on this… After this system passes by we get a break in the action before another storm system moves into the area by Thursday/Thursday night’s time frame….. Temps don’t really cool off this week highs in the lower to middle 20s. With lows in the middle to upper teens…

Will not go issue a long term forecast today…. See forecast below for that….

Saturday, December 18, 2010

Forecast for Western/Northwestern WI.

Not a lot to talk about through the short term and midterm… The blocking pattern holds it own like it has for sometime…Though there are signs it may be breaking down ….. Temps to warm into the middle 20s for all of next week… With chances of on and off light snows….


***CURRENT CONDITIONS***

Skies this late morning are cloudy with some breaks up along Lake Superior…. Some stations are reporting light snow/flurries… Temps are in the middle teens to some upper teens….Winds are from the West from 5 to MPH…..

***FORECAST DISCUSSION & ANALYSIS***

Strong area of low pressure on the Western side of Hudson Bay Canada is forecasted to move towards the West, as it does it will gain strength… This keep sending down weak impulses into the area on the Northwesterly flow… This will insure the FA mostly cloudy skies, along with some light snow/flurries from time to time.. As far as LES go they should begin to dissipate later today…. All light snow/flurries should be ¼ to 1.00 inches at tops… As far as the snow storm potential for early next week, this looks to setup over in MN once again.. Timing and placement on this system is still somewhat still up in the air…Using past trends on last two systems.. Thinking is to trend the same way for now… Models have been trending slower with said system and a little more to the North… We will have to watch this if that trend does hold then we could be dealing with more in the way of snowfall… It all boils down to if the blocking pattern can weaken enough to allow this system to move closer to the FA… Thinking is same parts of MN will be under the gun as last Monday….

After that system move out not much cold air behind it as the low in Canada seems to be drawn warmer air in them part, hence will not allow for any Arctic blast anytime to soon… Next system to effect the FA comes in for Christmas Eve and Christmas day time frame…. Once again the way the weather pattern has been this storm as its eyes set on parts of MN, leaving my FA basically high and dry…Just some light snow….Once again we will have to watch this as things could change…

So will run with mostly cloudy skies right through the end of the upcoming work week, with a chance of off and light snow/flurries….Highs in the middle to upper teens to start warming to the lower to middle 20s… Lows in the starting off either side of zero warming to the lower to middle teens… If we do get more clearing we will have to watch the lows as they could be colder…

***LONG TERM FORECAST SUNDAY DEC 26TH THROUGH SATURDAY JAN 3RD ***

We find ourselves under a 1035 MB high pressure system… Meantime a power storm system over the Eastern Coast line and one over the Western Coast line…. Will ensure us of a Northwesterly flow once again..This does break down by Friday Dec 31st. We do get into a Westerly flow then to a Southwesterly flow by end of the cycle…. This will allow for a few things to happen…..1st off allow for a better chance at seeing some better snows through this forecast cycle along with temps staying right around normal to above normal.. We shall see what plays out… As of right now this long term forecast is based on that the upper level pattern will be changing…We will not try to time storm systems at this point in time... Just doesn't make sense this far out, until the blocking pattern does for sure change,once that happens then we will give it a shot....

Friday, December 17, 2010

How does this winter stack up to last?

Lets  compare this winter to last winter so far, as far as snowfalls..We are running with October through December…..

Last year October 09 had 5 snow days, for a total of 9.25”.
Oct 10th = ¼”
Oct 12th = 3.30”
Oct 15th = 2.00”
Oct 23rd = 3.75”
November 09 had 1 snow day, for a total of 2.00”
Nov 29th = 2.00”
December 09 had 6 snow days for a total of 26.50”
Dec 4th = ½”
Dec 9th = 10.25”
Dec 13th = 5.00”
Dec 20th = ¾”
Dec 24th – 25th = 10.00”
Through this time frame that would give us a total of 37.75”
Now lets take a look at this year so far using the same time frame….
October 2010 had 1 snow day for a total of ½”
Oct 27th = ½”
November 2010 5 snow days, for a total of 11.00”
Nov 13th = 4.00”
Nov 14th = 2.50”
Nov 22nd = 1.25”
Nov 23rd = ½”
Nov 30th = 2.75
December 2010 so far we have had 3 snow days, for a total of 25.00” so far. (this still could change)
Dec 4th = 3.75”
Dec 9th =2.50”
Dec 11th = 18.75”
So far in the time frame that gives us 36.50 " of snow….Like stated above this number could go up..So as one can see this winter so far is about the same as last winter…
The info above comes from our office...
Here is a map of Wisconsin's average snowfall... All info below comes from the Wisconsin State Climatogy office...

Maps below show snowfall amounts per winter sessions..






Click on maps to see a bigger size...

Wednesday, December 15, 2010

Update on past weekends blizzard

The deadly blizzard of Dec 11-13 has took 4 lifes....
MILWAUKEE (AP) -- Authorities blame at least four deaths on the weekend snowstorm.


In Western Wisconsin, 58-year-old Kenneth Swanson of rural River Falls was killed when a metal shed collapsed from the heavy snow, pinning him under debris and about 3 feet of snow.

Also Saturday, 79-year-old Clifford Larson was using a snow blower at the end of his driveway in St. Croix County's Woodville when he was hit and killed by a snow plow.

In Southern Wisconsin, Alejandria Abaunza died when the SUV in which she was a passenger, slipped off Interstate 39 near Milton and hit several trees.

In Central Wisconsin, a man is dead from hypothermia after his van got stuck in the snow.

Update for winter weather advisory for the SW Counties of the FA...CANCELLED...

The winter weather advisory that was in effect for Preice a ST. Croix Counties has been cancelled as though it would be… The snow band has been setting up through Central MN mainly West of the Twin Cities…  See below....

Forecast for Western/Northwestern WI

Not much to talk about right through the end of the month.... So this will be more of a summary....
Looks like a very dull forecast on tap for the area…
First off I do think is the NWS will be dropping the winter weather advisory for my far Southern parts of the FA as the snow band is forecasted to setup mainly in MN (central part)…Heavy snow is forecasted to stay out over in MN tonight through Thursday… I have a gut feeling that my FA won’t see anything…Just some light snow/flurries... Inch tops if we are lucky…
In fact there is no big weather systems in the short term or all the way through the long term which takes us out through the end of this month..May see some off and on light snows here and there, no big snow storms for the area… Temps will start off cold but should be running slight below to near norms.. Precip should be about normal for this time of year….

Monday, December 13, 2010

Blizzard 2010 write up...May change in the next few days...

Dec 10th -13th Blizzard that effected a large area of the upper Midwest…This discussion will focus on the state of WI only..Then more so the local area at the end….
 Some facts about this blizzard…

1. Western/Northwestern WI was not the only hardest hit place…In fact a large area of WI saw between 10 to 20 plus inches of snow…More on this later…
2. This storm brought new records to many areas of WI….
3. This storm does rank in the top 5 biggest snow storms….
4. The snowfall amounts were hard to measure, I’d say over half the reports I see are just guess amounts… I know some are because I did get and take measurements in a few areas…The ones I did do them reports were off by 1 to 6 inches.. Leads me to think they were guessing…Here at The Weather Center we had a hard time getting measurements, and we been doing this for over 25 yrs.
Other facts will follow as we go through this lengthy write up.

 This storm was a hard one to forecast from the get go…. Most of the models were not in good agreement on this storm… ECWMF did have the best handle on this storm..The when the SREF model was able to latch on it also showed about the same track as ECWMF…While GFS was so far South until the last min, Still the model was to far South……This was not a normal system that should have brought this kind of snows to WI… We like to see a CO low or a TX panhandle hooker type system… This system came in from the western Coastline and track into IA then right over MKE….
The track was such it brought heavy snows to most of WI….Here are some maps from the NWS offices that cover WI….


Again the maps above came from the NWSs covering WI.....One can easy see Western WI was not the hardest hit...Maps show much of the Central state was hit..In fact Northeastern WI was the hardest hit area....So this should debunk all the reports from the local news media....
Maps below are the SFC OBS... You can easily how the low deepened rather fast...


Below are the IR satellite views and again you see how fast this storm came together and deepened over IA...



This blizzard caused many local LEA to close down roads throughout a good area dof WI..So far there is two deaths that we are aware of.... So this blizzard was a deadly one....The storm started late Friday night and lasted well into Saturday evening in Western/Northwestern WI... Also lasted through much of the day on Sunday for Eastern and Northeastern parts of the State......The storm also caused power outages in parts of the State..Some areas still without power today.The State Patrol had declared a 146 mile stretch of I-94 impassable from Hudson to Tomah WI...
This storm produced winds from 15 to 25 MPH with gusts up to 50 MPH throughout the State...Here at the office we had a wind gusts to 43.7 MPH... Near to white conditions were seen throughout the area,as well as most of WI....This blizzard did bring down a very cold air mass with it... Wind chill readings fell to the -25 to -35 below....Tonight should see temps fall into the -20 throughout much of the area....for -1 to -20 temps on tap for all of WI tonight...
How does this storm add up to others that hit WI...
From the data so far it will rank in the top five for many areas and number 1 spot for other areas....I was hoping that the Wisconsin State  Climatology would have had their write posted on how this storm compairs to others..As the time of this writing they don't... So going off of our records in our data base...
For the local area  this blizzard did beat out the 1991 Halloween blizzard in many ways... First off this storm did produce a few more inches than the Halloween blizzard that produced 15 to 22 inches of snow  across the area.. This storm also had more wind with it than the Halloween Blizzard..... Back in 2006 in March 13 through the 14...17 to 32 inches of snow fell which would also beat out the Halloween blizzard of 91... So using records back through 1991 till now this blizzard ranks in the number spot..The Halloween Blizzard comes in a number 3 While the blizzard of March 2006 comes in at number 1.....
Going back from 1982... Jan 22-23 the local areas saw 10 to 20 inches of snow..Then in Nov 30 -Dec 2 1985 the area saw 10 to 18 inches of snow.... So lets break this down by a listing...
Number 1 = March 13-14 2006 (17 to 32 inches of snow fell) Which many locals are saying it was the worst storm they have seen
Number 2 = Dec 11-13 2010 (10 to 23 inches fell)
Number 3 Oct 31 - Nov 2 1991 (15 to 22 inches of snow fell)
Number 4  Jan 22-23 1982 (10 to 20 inches fell)
Number 5 Nov 30 - Dec 2 (10 to 18 inches fell)
This is for the local area only...Once the Wisconsin State Climatology issues their report then will will compair the Dec 11-13 2010 blizzard to see where it stands in the top for the State of WI.

Other great weather blogs to check out for info on the 2010 blizzard.....
http://nwwisconsinweather.blogspot.com/
http://timsweatherblog.blogspot.com/
http://osnw3.blogspot.com/

Sunday, December 12, 2010

Storm write up tomorrow!

Blizzard of 2010 slams most of WI with 10 to 20 plus inches of snow..After going through the storm reports through the whole state…. This blizzard hit WI hard…. So it was not one area… I’m sure some are going to claim the Western part got hit the hardest, that is not true, this blizzard caused many Counties to close roads yesterday, last night and throughout the day.. We are still going through the data… We got the maps we need to do a in depth write up on the storm system…. However we are still checking out past weather events to compare this storm with… That will take maybe the rest of tonight into tomorrow morning…. Plans are now to have the write up done tomorrow afternoon/evening…. We will be doing a whole state write up this time around to be bunk some of the things we have heard and seen…. So stay tune for this very detailed write up on the blizzard of 2010……

***Snowfall total here at the office has been corrected.***

Storm total for snowfall after redoing it and making stops in Cumberland and Haugen as we all seemed to low and we are.... So here @ the office we had 18.75 inches of snow... I know what I did wrong I hurried the readings up and didn't take some I should have...Still half a sleep and getting cold and do the picture thing to much at one time for the state of mind I was still in.....

Just some pictures blizzard 2010







The great blizzard of 2010 has ended... Still some blowing and drifting snow...However the main story is the cold temps and very low wind chills.... Yeah I froze while getting these pictures... I took lots of them... Was outside to long hand and fingers got numb.... Anyway here are the pictures, some snownadoes and some of a big drift...

Saturday, December 11, 2010

***Dangerous winter storm still roaring its way through the area***

Notice all roads in Barron County are closed as of 1:00 PM.... No travel is advised....Heavy snow still falling at this 3:33 PM.... Radar trends still showing heavy snow in the area and should last right through the evening hrs.... Roads are drifted shut in most places in Barron County, We have 5 to 6 foot snow drifts here at the office right now... Power has been going on and off now... Winds still gusting up to 30 MPH and higher... We have not been out to get a snow reading since our last one of 12.50 inches...We should have well over 14 inches by now....

***DANGEROUS WINTER STORM STILL POUNDING THE AREA***

So far her at the office we picked up 12.50 inches of snow.... Winds now gusting up to 30 MPH,heavy snow still falling with near zero vis at times... Barron County issued a no traveler Advisory.....Snow still have at times throughout the rest of the afternoon... Still looking at 18 to 20 inches for the grand total...

Short term outlook number 1

Heavy snow falling throughout much of the FA… Though a little lighter in my Northern FA…. Radar trends and short term forecasting models would suggest this heavy snow is going to be around for most of the morning and well into the afternoon… So ongoing forecasts look to be sitting in good shape, so will leave everything stand….

***DANGEROUS MAJOR WINTER STORM POUNDING THE AREA***

***MAJOR WINTER STORM***


Major winter is pounding the area… Heavy snow start to fall late last night/early this morning over my Southern and Central areas….Lighter snows have been falling in my Northern areas….Light snow that currently falling will become heavier once again… Looking at the data this morning… Still thinking the snowfall map is still close though the areas we have marker for 20 to 24 inches of snow may have to be dropped down to 18 to 20 inches of snow…The rest of the forecasted snowfall looks a ok…. Will leave map stand for now…See below this post for that… Low pressure over Northern IA/Southern MN is forecasted to strengthen as it moves East along the MN/IA border into Southern WI/Northern IL…. This will lead to strong winds by the afternoon..With heavy snow falling and the strong winds this will lead to near or whiteout conditions from time to time, along with near to blizzard conditions…We are still forecasting another 10 to 14 inches to fall through today and early this evening, on top of what has falling already…. Looking at the snow gauge from inside it’s full meaning at least 12 inches have already fell here at the office.. Will know how much when we get out and check our snow boards… Lets just say 6 inches with the forecasted amounts through early this evening that would throw us into the 16 to 20 inch range, again this is just first guess…
Winds are forecasted to pick up even more then now looking at winds from 15 to 25 MPH with gusts around 30 MPH this afternoon… Tonight snow tappers off but the winds will remain strong with 15 to 20 MPH and gust up to 30 MPH.. Temps dropping to around -5 to -8 will create for wind chills to -15 to -25…..Sunday night looks like we could fall to -15 to -20… Will talk about that tomorrow….
Today through early this evening…. Heavy snow new snowfall amount ranging from 10 to 14 Inches… Lighter amounts North and in my far Southern zones… Blowing and drifting will become more of a problem as we head…
This is a dangerous winter storm… If you must travel make sure you have a winter safety kit in you vehicle let someone know your leaving time and arrival times…If one should become stuck stay with your vehicle and call for help…Best thing to do is hunker down with your family today through tonight….
Note…
Currently looking at the local radars we now see mod to heavy snow has begun to overtake most of the FA once again..

Updated snowfall amounts.

Had to update the snowfall map once again.... Did expand more of my FA to the 18 to 20 inches of snow,meanwhile I did up the 15 plus areas to now 20 to 24 inches.... Busy early morning in the office as we are watching the snow make a Northward push...Heavy snow is now falling in ST.Croix and Dunn Counties along with Counties to their South light to mod snow is starting to fall throughout the Barron,Polk, Burnett, and parts of Washburn and Rusk Counties... Look for the heavier snows to move North... Snowfall rates from 1 to 2 inches per hr looks to be a good bet.. Should see from 6 to 10 inches of snow by day break..With another 4 to 12 inches throughout the day light hrs....See map for total snowfall amounts...

Friday, December 10, 2010

***MAJOR WINTER STORM***

***DANGEROUS WINTER STORM TO EFFECT THE FORECAST AREA***

Timing late tonight through Saturday evening.

Forecast models in rather good agreement, just some timing issues I do like the ECWMF, Nam, and SREF for this storm system…
Low pressure will be moving along the MN/IA border tonight and then Across far Southern WI as it does the low is forecasted to deepen…I have decided to expand the heavier snowfall amounts all the to include Polk, ST. Croix Counties in the 12 to 15 inch range… I has also decided to go higher with 15 plus inches for most of Barron County, small part of Northeastern Dunn County, Northern part of Chippewa County, South/Southeast part of Washburn County, all of Rusk County and a good part of Sawyer County…South/Southern parts of Ashland and Iron Counties…. Rest of the forecast area should see 8 to 12 inches of snow… Map below….. Reason for upping the snow amounts is as the low deepens just to our South it should pull more moisture into the area…In my Southern zones could be a time that there is some freezing rain/sleet mix in from time to time…

Now as the low deepens and strong high pressure to our West/Northwest pressure gradients will increase… This will lead to winds up to 30 MPH at times.. This will cause widespread near to blizzard conditions throughout the FA, mainly in open Country areas…. Near to whiteout conditions will make for travel to become impossible… Now is the time to get ready for what looks to be the biggest snow storm so far this winter…. I would not be shocked in the NWS runs with a blizzard warning later today/night…. If one has to travel later tonight/tomorrow make sure you have a winter weather safety kit in your vehicle…Let someone know your travel plans with time of leaving and time of arrival….If you become stuck stay with your vehicle and call for help… Best thing to do is get your running around done today/early tonight, and hunker down later tonight/tomorrow…To tops things off Arctic air will be flowing into the area as well this will lead to very dangerous wind chills… -15 to -25….. As temps slowly fall throughout the day…

This is a dangerous winter storm…

Also check out these other blog that are covering this winter storm
Tim also covers my Northern FA areas.
Derek covers 6 of my Counties, if I don't cover the nowcasting part he always does...
So check all of our blogs on this storm system..
Also listen to you local news media and the NOAA weather radio for the latest on this dangerous winter storm..

Thursday, December 9, 2010

***Forecasted snowfall amounts***

Here is The Weather Center's snowfall forecast....If the track of the storm changes this will effect the snowfall amounts....If the track is to move more Westward we will have to move the heavier snows Westwards as well...However from thee data I have in front of me this is how it looks right now....
This system will also have strong winds, so blowing and drifting snows will become a problem for the FA... Could see blizzard type condintions for a period.With close to if not whiteout conditions,mainly in the Country areas with little or no cover... Now is the time to start to get ready for what could be the strongest winter storm thus far this year.. Things still can change....Though it appears the GFS/ECMWF/NAM have locked onto about the same track... Though NAM is still a tad South but has been trending more North the past runs....

***WINTER STORM ***

A major winter storm is set to hit the area...Heavy snows of 12 plus inches seem likely starting Friday night and lasting through Saturday night....All models are in good agreement as of this late afternoon... Will have more details and a snowfall map issued later....This storm will also have very strong winds with it so look for blowing and drifting snow to also be a problem with near to whiteout conditions...

Forecast for Western/Northwestern WI

Forecast problems…Today the light snow, along with rather windy conditions with blowing snow.. Then a change in the Friday night/Saturday forecast time zone…. May be some heavy snows for the FA more on this is a few…Then the Arctic dump through Tuesday night.

***CURRENT CONDITIONS***

At 9 am Temps are in the middle to upper teens across the FA with cloudy skies and some areas of light snow…Winds have been ranging from around 6 MPH up North to 12 to 14 MPH Central and South.. With gusts from 17 to 22 MPH out of the South/Southeast….

***FORECAST DISCUSSION***

This forecast discussion will focus mainly on the possibility of heavy snow for the first part of the upcoming weekend…

1000/1002 MB low pressure is forecasted to track along the US/Canada border today this will drag a warm front through the area then a cold front through the area later today into tonight…. Light snow has already broke out and still thinking 1 to 3 inches of snow is a good bet see map from earlier forecasts….. So today temps will be warmer middle 20s tonight won’t be as cold with lows in the middle teens….

Friday night into Saturday night…
Last night ECMWF and GFS forecasted this storm system to remain well South of the area….GFS has been holding that track since we started to talk about this system…. Well now ECWMF and GFS are more North with the system…Both line up rather well… So now we are going back to the ECMWF model track that it had when we first saw this system appear. There is still some timing issues and strength issues to deal with…So here we go again…
ECMWF has a 1005 MB low pressure system over Western NE…then moves this low East/Northeast towards Southeast WI/Northeast IL… Really doesn’t deepen the low that much until its way East..However a 1041 MB high pressure will try to build into the area so pressure gradients will increase causing for a rather windy day on Saturday…GFS is a little slower with the same track….NAM model is a little South with the model ATTM The SREF model is in line with ECWMF/GFS….. With all that said it does look like we could now see accumulating snows in the FA…Still way to early to pinpoint where and how much… Will wait for more runs to see if the models keep trending North with the winter storm….One thing is a giving Arctic air will blast in behind this system still thinking temps will be in the middle teens below zero with a few spots hitting twenty below Sunday and Monday night… With highs having a hard time getting to zero Sunday and Monday…..

Wednesday, December 8, 2010

Forecast for Western/Northwestern WI

Forecast problems..Really none to speak of tonight..1 to 3 inches of snow still looks like a good bet… The storm system we have been watch for the weekend will remain well South of the area, however get ready for the coldest air thus far this winter.. More on all of that later….


***CURRENT CONDITIONS***

At 10 PM we find temps ranging from just 1 above to as warm as 10 above….Winds are calm under mostly to cloudy skies….

***FORECAST DISCUSSION & ANALYSIS***

Tonight we find a 1028 MB high pressure system centered over Southwestern WI….We also find a 1008 MB low pressure centered just North of Northwestern MT…..High pressure will ease off to the Southeast throughout the night… Clouds have already became to increase over the FA ahead of a warm front… So temps may drop a few more degrees so still could see some below zero readings yet tonight… Winds will become South still remain on the light side….This will allow for temps temps to warm throughout the night….Tomorrow we see the low pressure system deepen to around 1000 MBS as it moves along the US/Canada border this will drag a warm front through the FA in the morning then a cold front through the FA later in the evening…. Moisture is scant with this system though there will be enough lift and forcing along the frontal boundaries to ensure light snow for my central/Central parts and Northern parts of the FA…Will keep the same thinking in the snowfall see map in the forecast below for details….There could be some freezing drizzle throughout my Southern areas and also in my Southern central areas…… This system pulls to the Northeast rather fast…Main CAA will come riding down about Friday night’s time frame..Still not as cold as what we will be dealing with…..Thursday’s temps lower to middle 20s with lows in the middle teens.. Friday highs upper teens same with Saturday… Lows Friday night lower to middle single digits….

Ok here we go trying to pin down the track of this snow storm…Can say this we won’t see any accumulating snows in my FA..
Lets look at the ECMWF model as this model seems to be having a hard time deciding what to do with the storm system OZ run had the system way South…12Z run now looks like this… Saturday we see a 1005 MB low pressure over South west IA, meantime we see another 1005 MB low pressure over Northern TX..Both lows join up in Western IL then deepens rather fast be Saturday night early Sunday down to around 995 MBS as it pushes through Northern IL..Mean while a strong high pressure system..1040 MBs drops into ND, and SD… Pressure gradients really crank up.. So this would lead to a very windy day on Sunday…. Hold on now lets look at the GFS…
GFS has a 1007 MB low pressure over the TX Panhandle…GFS dives this low into East central TX..Then moves the low Northeast to About Eastern part of TN/Western NC, and deepens the low to around 999 MBS.. From there GFS pushes it into Northern Main and deepens the low to around 970 MBS…. GFS has a much weaker high pressure system building into the area, though still strong 1036 MBS……So if GFS wins out we won’t see the very windy conditions….One thing to note this track is more South and East then it’s 06Z run… So this model is also having some issues that need to get worked out….So seems fit to run with some light snow from late Friday night into Saturday early afternoon…
One thing that does appear likely is the Arctic blast that is set to move in Saturday later afternoon, and lasting right through Tuesday…. Lows well below zero could see some -20°s in our colder spots..Highs will have a hard time making to above zero…

Will not go any further out in the forecast not till I see a better agreement in the long range models…Which hasn’t been there for the last few days….

Tuesday, December 7, 2010

Some weather info..

First off the ongoing forecast stands as is... Thinking has not changed..See below..
Ok lets talk about our snowfall we have had so far...
Oct 27 we picked up 1/2" of snow.
October total snowfall = 1/2"
Nov 13th through the 14th we saw 6.50"of snow(storm total)
Nov 22 we had thundersnow and picked up 1.25"of snow
Nov 23rd we picked up 1/2"of snow.
Nov 30 we saw 2.75"of snow.
Total snowfall for November =  11.00"
So far this leaves us with 11.50" of snow(not counting December but if we did....375"of snow on Dec 4th so if we added that in that would leaves us with 15.25"...
The readings above come from The Weather Center... So we are off to head start on our snowfall...
Also Nov was warmer than normal, though it may not have felt that way but the one week really pushed the temps up so when we avg it all out we were above normal...
December has been colder than normal expect that to keep trending that way into next week... So how cold are we below normal....10 to 15 degrees colder than normal...Temps should remain below normal through 13th. We could see them warm back up to normal from the 15th through the 20th... Precip should avg out close to normal...
Also much of the CONUS has been colder than normal... So will the winter forecast for colder than normal temps and near normal snowfall hold.. Way to early to tell in this part of the game....

Forecast for Western/Northwestern WI/added snowfall map

Forecast headaches…. A storm system that could bring accumulating snows close to if not over the FA for the upcoming weekend…. Snow is also possible for Thursday/Thursday night…Slight warming trend before the Arctic flood gates open back up… This will allow for the coldest air thus far this winter…


***CURRENT CONDITIONS***
As of the 10 AM hr we see temps in the lower single digits to the upper single digits. Skies for the most part are Sunny to partly cloudy with some areas of snow flurries… Winds from the North/Northwest around 3 to 9 MPH…

***FORECAST DISCUSSION & ANAYLSIS***
Don’t be alarmed that big bright yellow thing in the sky is only the sun, bests better enjoy it today and tomorrow as it won’t last long as we got to weather features we need to talk about..First one is cut and dry. The second one is not so easy…. For today through Wednesday look for partly sunny to mostly sunny skies temps won’t be going much higher than they are now.. Upper single digits to lower teens should work rather well… Tonight temps will depend on if clouds over take the FA once again is so temps should stay above zero, if not temps will fall to below zero once again… Wednesday temps warm into the upper teens as WAA slowly kick in ahead of a weak storm system.. 1000 MB low pressure is forecasted to move along the US/Canada border Thursday through Thursday night this system has little moisture to work with, however enough lifted to cause 1 to 3 inches of snow for my Central/Central and Northern areas… While them Southern Central and Southern areas may see some freezing drizzle and light snow… Little to no accumulations are expected in those areas….Best chance at seeing 1 to 3 inches of snow will be North of a Balsam Lake, Barron, and Ladysmith… Points South of that line less than 1 inch….

Now on to our problem system….Looking at the ECMWF model first Upper level low that has been locked in place for an extended period of time over the Northeastern CONUS is forecasted to left Northeast… This will allow for a few problems… 1st off a 100 MB low pressure system is forecasted to form over Western NE on Friday/Friday night… This low is then forecasted to lift Northeast Southern WI/Northern IL on Saturday as it does its forecasted to deepen to around 996 MBS… System will has moisture to work with as the GOM opens up… If this track plays out my Central and Southern areas could see accumulating snows…However not only the track will play a role the push of Arctic air behind Thursday/Thursday nights system will also be a key factor..If the push comes in faster this could push the storm system well to the South….Lets look at the GFS model… GFS has the system forming in Northeast CO about 1008 MBS then GFA pushes this system into Southern/Central MO and deepens it to 998 MBS Then GFS moves the system Northeast along the Eastern Coastline… GFS has the Arctic air pushing into the FA sooner than ECWMF… GFS has a 1038 MB high pressure building into the area for the weekend.. So if GFS is right we won’t see much in the way of snowfall throughout the FA also less winds for the FA…….Looking at the GEM-GLB model…This model has the storm system tracking South of the area through Central IL… This will keep the snowfall still South of the FA..What is interesting is that the UKMET model agrees with the GFS on the track of the system…Though somewhat weaker until the system moves into the Northeastern States….. One thing that will save this forecast from busting is time, has we have time to watch this still.. So will not pull out the big guns just yet, will save that for Thursday’s update… One thing that is a giving on all models is next week the Arctic air will be in place… Lows could fall into the teens below zero if not twenties below zero for some areas, with highs either side of zero…..
Below is our snowfall map valid from Thursday through Thursday night.

Sunday, December 5, 2010

Forecast for Western/Northwestern WI.

Forecast problems… Temps are going to be tricky...LES…Then our next weather maker for Thursday/Thursday night… Then more Arctic air on the way after that…


***CURRENT CONDITIONS***

At the 6 AM we find a rather large range in temps….Where skies are clear temps have dropped to 2° to 5°…Where skies are cloudy temps are range from 11° to 16°…. Temps still could fall off a few more degrees as we head towards sunrise… There has been some light snow/flurries reported across the area…. Winds are from the West/Northwest from 3 to 10 MPH….This is causing wind chills to fall from 2°+ to -8°….

***FORECAST DICUSSION AND ANALYSIS***

Looking at the SFC charts this morning we find a rather large 1036 MB high pressure centered over Southeastern SD per RCU, while GFS/NAM have the center a little more North or West..Looking at the 500 MB charts upper level low pressure is centered just North of NY. Meanwhile we find a building ridge in the Western states…. Both these features will insure us of a Northwesterly flow.. We also find a upper level low/trough out over the Pacific ocean…
What this means our weather shall remain cold through midweek…With off and on clouds from weak shortwaves dropping South/Southeast in the Northwesterly flow…. Back down at the SFC charts… Looking at the GFS model we see things really don’t change in the weather pattern through Tuesday night, Wednesday high pressure is forecasted to move of the area this will allow for WAA to slowly kick back in as we get a return flow from the South/Southwest this will allow for temps to warm back into the middle to upper teens…Meantime a piece of energy breaks off from the upper level low off the Western Canada Coast.. This move into Southern Alberta Canada then down into Northwest ND by late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning.. This low is forecasted to move into Southwestern MN early Thursday morning and weaken to around 1000 MBS…By late Thursday night/early Friday morning the low is forecasted to be centered in Western MI… Still looks to bring accumulating snows back into the FA… Track of this system is more North than the last one we just done dealing with, so if this works out the heavier snow bands will be setting up more North…. ECMWF model agrees on the track, however its much weaker with the system…. Both models do agree on another Arctic blast along with strong Northwest/North winds behind this system…..
LES will still be a problem through my LES belts as cold Northwest/North wind flow over the warm waters of Lake Superior… This may be ongoing thing through Tuesday night before the SFC winds become more westerly.
In fact the light snow/flurries we are seeing this morning and throughout the rest of the day, is thanks to Lake Superior…..
So for today through Wednesday looks for off and on clouds with flurries today……Temps could have a wide range to them… Places that see more clear skies will be colder than other places seeing cloudy skies…. So will run like this
Highs from today through Tuesday 13 to 16 with lows from -10 to plus 3…..That should cover it rather good…Wednesday and Thursday temps warm into the upper teens to lower 20s…Lows in the upper single digits to the lower teens….. Snow is looking like a good bet for Thursday/Thursday night…. Will issue a snowfall map on Tuesday or Tuesday night if needed…. Arctic air slams back into the area for next weekend into the following work week… More on that later… However that looks to be our coldest air yet of the this winter…..

Saturday, December 4, 2010

Fast forecast

Notice this is going to a fast forecast,hope to go more in details tomorrow, depending how I feel.
Are you ready for the Arctic blast? if not to late... Temps are going to drop tonight into the single digits, if we can get the clouds to move out sooner we could go below zero with the fresh snow pack....Tomorrow look for highs in the lower teens under mostly sunny conditions....Sunday night temps will range from -10 to +3....This cold trend holds right through Wednesday...Slightly warmer on Wednesday...GFS and ECMWF are is rather good agreement on the next clipper forecasted to bring another round of accumulating snows to the FA Thrusday and Thursday night...The track looks to be more North this time around, which would bring the heavier snows North.. So as it looks right now most of the FA will get more snowfall... To early to to figure out amounts ATTM... The system does look to be just as strong as this past one..
LES still look to be a problem for my LES belts in Ashland and Iron Counties...Through 1 PM tomorrow..As much as 4 to 6 inches could fall in those areas...

Winter storm update along with snowfall amounts.Updated my snow amount@11:37 AM

So far from the reports I have been seeing does look the forecast verified rather well… So lets take a look at some of the reports… Reports can from the NWS in the Twin Cities and Duluth….


As of 8:21 Am 4 miles North of Grantsburg 2.00”…. Burnett County

As of 4:32 AM Saroina 0.05”… Washburn County

Those are the only reports so from the Duluth NWS….

As of 8:40 AM here at the office 6 miles Northwest of Rice Lake 3.00”... Barron County

As of 8:00 AM Augusta 4.20”... Eau Claire County

As of 8:07 AM Bloomer 3.00” ...Chippewa County

As of 8:06 AM 3 miles North of Cameron 2.30”.... Barron County

As of 7:43 AM Elk Mound 3.80”... Dunn County

As of 7:05 AM Baldwin 5.00”.... ST. Croix County

As of 6:22 AM New Richmond 4.60”.... ST. Croix County

As of 6:32 AM Jim Falls 2.06”... Chippewa County

AS of 1:45 AM 5 miles Southeast of Eau Claire 3.00”... Eau Claire County.

Now on to some reports from late last night early morning hrs… Some of these areas may report a little more,however with matching these up with the late morning reports I don’t expect the amount to change that much…

As of 12:45 AM Menomonie 3.00”... Dunn County

As of 12:00 AM New Richmond 3.00”.... St. Croix County, as seeing above they didn’t pick up much more….

As of 12:25 AM 5 miles Southeast of Eau Claire 2.00”.... Eau Claire County…..

As of 12:20 AM Clayton 2.00”... Polk County..

That is most of the reports as of now…..Again I really don’t expect them to change a lot….
As of 11:37 AM here at the office we picked up another 0.75" of snow that brings the total up to 3.75" as of right now....

Friday, December 3, 2010

Forecast stands

I still see no reason to change the ongoing forecast or forecasted snowfall amount.. So map does stay the same to...Though places I have the 1 to 3 inches of snow may see less than 1 inch of snow through Saturday... Track of the low pressure system as not changed from yesterday's forecast... Only thing that changed was the best forcing has setup a little more South than thought yesterday... Still radar is showing some heavy bands of snow over Eastern MN,Other heavier snow bands have setup over parts of Central and Southen MN.... The snow still has remain rather light in most of the my WI,that is soon to change....So with all the trends and data I'm looking at going to leave ongoing forecast and snowfall map as is....

Thursday, December 2, 2010

The forecast for Western/Northwestern WI.

Forecast concerns…. Last night was our coldest night of the session, temps dropped in the lows single digits to below zero…Here at the office we recorded a low of -2° meanwhile Siren came in with -1° so far those have been the coldest readings I have seen in the SFC OBS……Next on the list is the significant snowfall possible for my far Southern two Counties…The a shot of more Arctic air on its way… So lets get right into this all of this….


***CURRENT CONDITIONS***
Not really much time for current conditions ATTM...

***SFC AND UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST DISCUSSION***

Looking at the SFC charts this morning we find a short-wave centered over Northwest IA/Northeastern NE… This has been the cause for some light snow/flurries out over Southwestern MN…. This feature is forecasted to fill/washout…. Also we find a rather large ridge of High pressure 1028 MBS centered just North of Central ND…. Meantime we find forming low pressure over South Central Alberta Canada…. This will turn into our next system of interest… More on that if a few….Looking at the upper levels we still find a rather large trough of low pressure digging into the eastern part of the CONUS… Keeping my FA under Northwesterly flow….This is forecasted to slowly work East/Northeast… NAM and ECWMF in rather good agreement on the weather features…. GFS does seem a little on the fast side with the clipper system….So for now will leave GFS out in the back 40….. Today high pressure builds into the area this will allow for a partly cloudy day ,there still will be slight chance at some flurries as we are still close enough to the 500 MB low pressure…. Satellite does show more clouds lurking to our North/Northwest see no reason why that won’t drift in from time to time… Temps today should only hit the upper teens throughout a good chunk of the FA… Some lower 20s will be possible over my Southern Counties… Tonight 1028 MB high pressure is forecasted to be centered over Western MN this will allow skies to once again clear off… Winds will become calm this should allow for another cold night with temps falling back into the single digits to below zero once again…Looking at the RH charts we should see clouds start to increase tomorrow morning as the system starts it trek to the Southeast…. So time to talk about this clipper……For the most part NAM and ECWMF are in rather good agreement… Still the placement of snow is still a little in the air yet… GFS would have the heavier snows more South then ECWMF, NAM would place the whole FA in the heavier snows…. So have decide to blend all three models as I like parts of each one…. So the low pressure is forecasted to move Southeast into Northeast WY then track to about East Central NE then over to down to Northeast MO.. This would put my far Southern Counties is area to pick up 6 to 8 inches of snow, while the rest of the FA will see from 1 to 6 inches of snow…. See our snowfall map below…. Behind this system the Arctic flood gates open up as Northwesterly winds funnel down more cold air… Temps should be below norms throughout much of next week… Should also remain dry…. More on the long range forecast after we are done dealing with this system……

Wednesday, December 1, 2010

methods of weather forecasting

Forecasting methods we use at The Weather Center… Before I get to that…. Long before someone can really forecast the weather you need to have an understanding of the atmosphere and its physics, along with SFC terrain as terrain can and does effect the forecast on a local scale.. Ok lets talk about some of the methods we use to come up with our forecasts.


1. Persistence method….. This method assumes that the current weather pattern won’t change through the forecast cycle ..This method will bust if the weather patterns are changing rather fast… So this method is not the best in the short term forecast, however does work out rather well in the long term forecasts, out past 10 days and even month to month forecast….

2. Trends method….. This method involves mathematics in determining the speed/direction weather systems are moving… This method works rather great for nowcasting (now to 2hrs out in time) for an example lets say there is a severe thunderstorm west of the area by 60 miles… We have figured out the storm is moving East at 30 MPH, this would put the storm in the area in about 2 hrs…. Caution has to be used with this method in nowcasting as storms can pick up speed and changed direction of travel.. This method is rather well for short term forecasting a day or two if the weather pattern is not being blocked.

3. Climatology method…… This is another rather easy method to use, however do require a little more time… As one will be looking at years of weather data for a day one is forecasting for…. You will look at the SFC OBS/reports from the past then you will need to avg them all out then you have your climatology forecast for that day… Now this method only works if the weather pattern in its self is similar to the data…. This method will bust if the weather pattern is not typical for that time of year….

4. Analog method…. This method is a little more complicated however it is used… What you want to do is look at today’s weather scenario then remembering a day back in time that the same or close to the same setup as today’s…. You will never find the exact match however you will get a close match which will allow you to come up with a forecast… This method is good for detailing larger events…

5. NWP for known as the Numerical Weather Prediction, or as the Computer models…. This method is very difficult to master, there is a lot of information one has to understand which is another whole write up, so for now will touch on some of it…. First off you need to understand each forecasting model and its limitations, along with its bias… You need to understand the gaps in the system as this will play havoc on the forecast...If not all the info is in the computers it will through off the analysis which in turn can/will effect the forecast.. This has been better over the years….One needs to look at all the forecasting models to see which models agree and ones that don’t… One has to also look at past runs to see how much things have changed in between the model its self… One wants to match the SFC OBS/Satellite imagery to the forecasting model analysis to see how close the model is matching up in real time.. This just a very limited amount of things one must know…. Another key factor is one has to look at all the computer models data, not just the temps and precip data…. One needs to looks at all levels to see what is taking place higher up than the SFC…. Knowledge is the key factor when interpreting forecast models… One can tell a beginner forecaster from a long time forecaster just by reading their forecast discussions … … Example…. A beginner or one with less knowledge forecast discussion may read like this… Models have a low over CO.. Models don’t agree on the track of the low… Well really that isn’t saying much at all… What its telling me is the forecaster is unsure of them self’s and I wonder how they came up with their forecasts… Now a long time or more knowledgeable forecaster’s discussion would read more like this…. GFS has a 997 MB low pressure over CO..This model is forecasting the storm to move East and so one… Then you will see another model brought up like so…. Nam as the low pressure system a tad North of GFS and a little stronger down to around 994 MBS Nam takes the low more North than GFS… ECMWF also agrees with NAM however ECWMF is a little weaker with the low, as it at 999 MBS…. So will use a blend on the NAM and ECWMF to come up with this forecast…. That is just an example…. If one wants to keep the forecast easy that is great but there should be no reason to talk about the forecasting models then…That will confuse people if the forecaster can’t or won’t explain them..

We do use all the methods talked about above some more than others…. Plus we use other tools like skew, bufkit data just to name a few…

Tuesday, November 30, 2010

The Weather Center's forecast area mapped

Ok to make this a little easier we decided to show you a break down of the FA...All this info is on the map also... The red outlined area is our forecast area...Now when we are talking West to East this how the FA breaks down... The area between the red line and black line is our Western zones...From the black line to the green line is our Central zones...Our Eastern zones run from the green line to red line,which for some unknown reason didn't get typed in,however is marked by the arrows....
Ok Now when we are talking North to South,or South to North here is how the FA is broke down...Between the red and blue lines is our Northern zones.. Between the blus and purple lines is our Central zones.....Last but no leat between the purple and red lines is our Southern zones...
Click on map for bigger size...