Wednesday, October 31, 2012

Forecast for Western/Northwestern WI.

No forecast problem seen right through Friday, however Friday night through Sunday morning we will have to deal with rain and snow….More on this later…..


As of 1 PM all station are reporting sunny skies, with temps in the lower 40s…Winds range from 7 to 12 MPH from the North/Northwest.


First off, looking at the satellite imagery We see that the remains of Sandy is slowly beginning to lose its grip on WI..As we see clouds have pushed backed into Eastern WI, However our local weather still remains locked for the rest of today….Tonight we should see a short wave drop into the area, clouds from this system already streaming into Northwestern and Western MN into the Central parts…..Am not expecting nothing more than a few clouds from this system tonight…Not a lot of moisture to work with, plus with all the dry air around, what little moisture that is available will go into cloud production…..After tonight look for another sunny to partly cloudy days…Temps will remain below normal through this period….
Confidence level very high.


REST OF TODAY… Sunny some high clouds, highs in the lower 40s.  North/Northwest winds will become lighter to around 5 to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT…Party to mostly cloudy, lows in the upper 20s winds becoming light from the North/Northwest.

THURSDAY… Mostly sunny, highs lower to middle 40s. North/Northwest winds from 5 to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT… Mostly clear lows lower 20s to middle 20s.

FRIDAY….Partly cloudy skies, with increasing clouds in the afternoon. Highs Lower 40s.


Low pressure system over the Northwestern Pacific Coastal area shows up rather nicely on the satellite….This will be our weather maker for Friday night through Sunday morning…..The low is forecasted to move into Northeastern part of WY by around 2100 Nov 1 That low is forecasted to Stay well South of the FA, however another area of low pressure is forecasted to form over Eastern MT/Western ND…This will push Southeast into Southeastern MN/Southwestern WI…This track would keep the best chance of snow North of a Twin Cities to Eau Claire line, meanwhile South of that line should remain all rain…May be some very light snow mixing in at the end in my Southern Counties, however don’t bet the farm on it….GFS model is showing from 2 to 4 inches of snow , with the higher amounts in Parts of Northern/Eastern Barron County along with parts of Western into Central Rusk County and point North….For now I will not running with any snow accumulations in the forecast, since there is still some model arguments going on with that….Looks like the best likely hood for snow will be Friday night into Late Saturday morning…Then just some flurries/light snow after that, however we will have to watch Saturday night/Sunday as an upper level low scoots into the area, this could bring a another chance of snow…Still too many things up in the air on that…..So for now I will end the snow Sunday morning/keeping most of Sunday on the dry side…..Will also only run with flurries/light snow….For Monday and Tuesday Look for Partly cloudy skies…Temps will be tricky, depending on if we get any snow accumulation…If we do temps will hold in the 30s to maybe as highs as the lower 40s…If we don’t temps could be as warn as the middle 40s to upper 40s for highs, while lows would remain in the 30s…..For now I will run with a average…Which will put temps below model guidance’s….
Confidence level mod to high, then falling to low by Monday and Tuesday.


FRIDAY NIGHT… Cloudy with rain/snow mix changing to all snow. Lows in the lower 30s falling into the middle to upper 20s.

SATURDAY… Cloudy with snow in the morning, then light snow/flurries in the afternoon…Highs middle 30s.

SATURDAY NIGHT… Cloudy with a chance of light snow/flurries, lows in the upper 20s.

SUNDAY… Light snow/flurries ending in the morning, Then just a chance of flurries in the afternoon. Highs middle 30s.

SUNDAY NIGHT… Mostly cloudy, lows in the middle to upper 20s.

MONDAY/MODNAY NIGHT…. Partly sunny highs lower 40s, clear partly cloudy Monday night, lows in middle 20s.

TUESDAY/TUEDAY night… Partly sunny highs middle 30s to upper 30s. Partly cloudy Tuesday night, lows in the middle 20s.


We will start this period on the dry side the dry weather should hold through the 9th. We will see a storm system digging into the Northeastern parts of CO this is forecasted to push a warm front through the area...We should see some rain showers as the 540 thickness line is well to our North in Canada. This low is forecasted to move into North Central NE by the 10th This will keep rain showers going right through the 10th by the 11th we see a cold front move through the area this will cause the rain to mix with and change over to all snow mainly over my Central and Northern areas, while my Southern areas see plain old rain. The 13 we still could see some light snow/flurries from wrap around moisture drops that drops South...The 14th looks to be dry, however that is short lived as another storm system takes shape over the Northeastern par of the TX Panhandle, along with a trough over the FA…Look for more snow to break out across the FA maybe even into my Southern area as well… By the 16th low pressure is forecasted to move in the Southern MO this will push warmer air back into my Southern areas so look for just rain down there, with a rain/snow mixture over my Central areas, while all snow in my Northern areas…

Temps through this time frame should be right around normal, no big warm-ups no big cold snaps….
By all means this long term forecast is not set in stone, long range models not evening close to each other....So with that said I'm sure this forecast will be changing within time.
Very low confidence level.



A look back at October

Once again it’s that time to take a look back in time….This time we are looking back at October 2012….

For the most part October was near normal for temps in Barron County….

We had 5 thunderstorm days…There were no severe thunderstorm watches or warnings issued for Barron County.

Days we had thunderstorms are as follows…. 13th , 16th, 22nd, 24th, and the 25th.

We had  no severe thunderstorm days.

So the total of thunderstorm days is 5.

We had 2 snow days….A trace or >

Days we saw snow falling from the sky are as follows.

9th, and 26th.

How does this compare to last October? Time to find out.

Last year we only had 2 thunderstorm days….

We only had 1 day  with snow falling from the sky…. We had less than a trace of snow.

Last October was cooler than normal….

What will November hold for us? Time will tell….

Notice this information is only for Barron County.

Friday, October 19, 2012

Our winter forecast

This is our winter forecast.....This will be the average through the whole winter….Let’s look at the temp forecast first…We are forecasting near normal temps throughout all of Northeastern MN into a small part of Eastern MN, all of WI, all of MI, parts of Northern IL, IN and OH.(lime shaded areas) Meantime we are forecasting warmer than normal temps for ND,SD,NE IA, small part of IL, small part of Southwestern WI, Southeastern MN up through Western MN….(red shaded areas)

Time to look at the snowfall forecast….

We are forecasting way below normal snowfall for all of MN, Eastern ND,SD Eastern NE, all of IA, All of Southwestern WI into part of Southeastern WI, and just about all of IL….(orange shaded area) We are forecasting near to slightly above normal snowfall for all of MI Eastern IL, Northern IN, OH, most of WI, Most of ND,SD, NE.(blue shaded area)….

Once again this is the winter’s average….Maps below.....

Thursday, October 18, 2012

Forecast for Western/Northwestern WI

Forecast concerns…… Will be the off and on light rain showers/drizzle/and fog through Friday night…..Then how warm to go with temps this weekend…..Is winter coming in the long range? It looks like it….


At 10:00 PM skies are cloudy with areas of fog throughout the FA….Temps range from the upper 30s to middle 40s under calm winds….


A very strong SFC/Upper level low is still forecasted to keep spinning over MN through Friday, it will start to get licked off to the Southeast of the FA down into Southeastern WI by 23Z Friday…..This will insure the FA will stay under the clouds/drizzle.fog/and light rain showers through this time frame…..Winds will not be a problem as they are forecasted to remain over parts of Western MN and ND/SD along with NE and Western IA….

For Saturday we will a 1010 MB high pressure system building into the area…This will set the stage for a very nice weekend….Saturday highs will depend how fast the fog and low clouds burn off…..Thinking as of right now to run with middle to upper 50s throughout the whole FA…..Sunday will be the warmest day…Highs should shoot up into the middle to upper 60s Central and Northern areas, while my Southern areas should reach the upper 60s to lower 70s…Lows through this time frame will range from the upper 30s to lower 40s…


We will see another system move into the area starting Sunday night….Clouds will begin to increase….Monday through Wednesday we will see off and on showers…..Highs will remain in the upper 50s to lower 60s….While lows in the 40s…..To hard to time the chances of rain, so will just have rain showers everyday throughout this time frame….


We see a 1005 MB low pressure system getting its act together over Eastern CO…Later in the day the low deepens to around 1002 as it pushes towards Southeastern SD…The low is forecasted to deepen further more as it pushes to the head of Lake Superior…Should see the low around 994 MBS..The low then deepens to around 980 MBS as it pushes into the Western UP of MI…..This will create strong Northeasterly winds across the FA..Will also see rain showers across the FA could see one or two thunderstorms on Friday as well…..Friday night as the low pulls off to the Northeast it is forecasted to drag a cold front through the area….Some light rain should mix with and change over to all light now Friday night at the 540 line is forecasted to move South of the FA…Saturday the 27th we see a break in the action before the next system moves toward the area….Late Saturday night we could see some light snow moving into the area this will hold right through Sunday…..Monday through Tuesday looks to be dry but cooler than normal…..Next chance of snow comes back into play for the 31st The rest of this time frame should remain dry……

So to sum it the long range forecast temps will be cold with off and chances of snow! No real warm air seen in the long range….Could winter be starting and staying? Time will tell….
Our winter forecast will be out tomorrow!! If you love snow I think you will love this forecast!!!!

Friday, October 5, 2012

Looking back at September.

Looking back at September 2012…..We saw all kinds of weather this month….Severe thunderstorms to snow….Time to unfold the details to crazy month…..

This month started off on the warm side…..Then temps took a dive on the 3rd week of this month, only to warm backup once again….

Time to look at the thunderstorm days….

There was 1 severe thunderstorm day…

There was 3 thunderstorm days…

Total thunderstorms days was 4…

Non severe thunderstorm days…..3rd, 8th, and the 19th.

Severe thunderstorm days…. 4th.

Despite the rainfall, we needed up drier than normal this month….

Part of the area saw the growing season end on the 18th ….The rest of the area saw their growing season end on the 23rd.

Some of the area saw their first snowflakes and snowfall of the season…..This did happen while it was still summer…..

This happened during the hours of the 21st and early morning hours of 22nd…..Some areas did see from ¼ to almost as much as 2.00 inches of snow….

So a crazy month it was…..

Back in 2011…We had 4 thunderstorm days…..No severe thunderstorm days….No snowfall….

What will October hold for us? Time shall tell…..

Last fall color update

This will be our last fall color update, as we are now past peak....Peak happened the weekend of 09/28/2012...This ran through Sunday into Monday.....With the winds on 10/04 and today the 5th...A lot of leaves are now gone.....Pictures below are from this past weekend......We hope you enjoyed the updates throughout this fall, as much as we enjoyed doing this......