Thursday, April 30, 2009

Radar icons

After about 50+some emails from the discussion Amy and I had about radar icons,I have decided to do a little/fast write up on this topic..I have taken a lot of classes seminars on radar interpretation through out the years...

We have all seen them.those little icon that appear on some radar programs...How accurate are they?
Well for the most part the are just for show...Sometimes they may right on,however most of the time forget them...Lets talk about the lightning icons first....First off if you have a radar program that does display them...9 chances out of ten the icon them self's are going to be 15+ mins late,unless you are paying for a sub to some place....Now if you have a lightning detector and have the ability to over lay that onto the radar you will have the most accurate areas of lightning....Ok lets talk about that tornado icon...First off don't believe them...If you really and truly want to see rotation in a storm learn how to read the Base Velocity scans along with the Storm Relative scans...I have been experimented with this when out storm chasing...There are times when the icons would show up,however the storm was not doing nothing..Cross checked it with the scans above and sure enough nothing going on..There has been times when there a tornado was on the ground no icons were showing up on the radar program,however there was a tornado on the ground.Sometimes if the tornado is strong enough it will show up as a hook on the Base reflectivity scans..Same thing goes for the Meso icon...Us the Base Velocity and SRM scans....Now for he hail icons...Once again don't believe them....Best ways to figure out if hail is falling in a thunderstorm is to looks at the base Reflectivity...The higher the DBZ say 60 + the better chances you may have large hail falling..However that still does not tell you for sure.Here is another way...One has to use the higher tilts of the radar..Without going into a lengthy discussion on that,I will make it short and sweet and to the point...The reason why you will need to use the higher scans is because hail cores are stronger in the higher elevations of thunderstorms.Which makes since..Here you have to understand how a thunderstorm works.If you can use a cross section view of the radar that is the best way to see the hail cores...use 1.5 and higher scans..on the cross sections or base...Hail will produce a 3 body scatter/spike on the radar if one sees this you could have hail up to inch + dim falling...Here is a simple discussion....The 3 body scattering/spike are cause from the radar bean hitting hail scattering to the ground ,then scattering back upwards and them scattering once again by the hail aloft in the storm...Now another way one can see hail and is kind of cheating but good for the non experience people who really don't understand the radar operations,however this way may be 10 mins late..Ok one can use the composite image...Some radars program if not all will tell you the track of the storm.how fast it is moving,whether there is hail and what size..Also it will tell you what cells may have meso and tornado signatures to them..So as far as the icons go..I would not put to much faith in them. Do I use them no way!..Radar is not all about the pretty colors that show up, and them little icons there is so much more than that

Forecast...

Forecast not really to bad...Problem is when to clear the precip from the area,and time the CDFNT passage....

CURRENT CONDITIONS.....

This morning temps are Starting of in the upper 40s North.lower 50s Central,To as warm as the middle 50s South...For the most part DWPNTS are in the upper 40s...This has lead to the DVLPMT of PTCHY fog through out the entire FA..Some of the fog has been DNS is a few areas...Also some light DRZL through out the area..Some returns still showing up on the radar this morning from ST.Croix through Pierce and Pepin and into Buffalo Counties..Then another area of returns from points South of the city of EAU...

SFC ANALYSIS....

SFC charts show a 1008 MB low pressure over far North Central ND with a CDFNT reach from low into Western MN than down through Northeast NE through Northwest KS to a 1003 Low pressure over Southwest KS...1030 MB high pressure building into Central MT..Meantime a ridge of high pressure is ruling the New England States....

TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

Off and on rain showers/ISO thunderstorms through late morning before the CDFNT passes through...Winds will be rather gusty from the W/SW after said front sails through...Winds look to be on the order from 10 to 15 MPH today..Highs today should range from the upper 50 North to around 60 - 63 Central and South...Tonight will still run with cloudy skies as the low pressure over ND now is forecasted to move into Northeast MN..CDFNT will have already pushed through my FA so I have decided not to run with rain chances if the North or Central areas,still will keep a very small chance going in my far Southern Counties...Lows tonight upper 30s to around 40 seem the way to run as CAA will be well under way across the areas....

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.....

Temps will be cooler tomorrow as CAA still in full force....Temps range from the lower 50 North,middle 50s Central,last but not least upper 50s South...Will keep a small chance of INSTBY showers in my Central and Northern areas as this is where the cold air sets up in the upper levels Won't take much SFC heating to kick up some showers Lapse rates still rather strong..I don't think any thunderstorms will get going as LIS are not that good...Will run with PTLY CLDY Skies in my Southern areas..
Lows on Friday range from the lower 30s North, middle 30s Central and Southern areas...Saturday will still run with a small chance of INSTBY SHWRS in my Northern and Central areas as cold doom still in place in them areas...Will go with MST sunny to PTLY CLDY skies in the South....Highs on Saturday Middle 50s North.upper 50s Central,Lower 60s South....Low range from Lower 30s to the middle 30s...

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.....

Nice dry period on tap as high pressure takes control of our weather...Temps in the 60s through out the whole FA....

Wednesday, April 29, 2009

Fast forecast

Your local forecast looks like this...Again didn't really go into details...

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY....

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible through this time frame..None of the thunderstorms are forecasted to be severe...There may be some gusty winds, and the stronger cells may produce some small hail...Main threat from thunderstorms that do form, will be periods moderate to heavy rains...Thinking is this would South of an EAU line,with lesser amounts North...Sill looks like 1/4" to 1/2" rainfall is possible most areas....CDFNT should be through the are tomorrow morning...Will leave showers and storms in the forecast for ongoing activitey..Should be ending by mid to late morning....Highs today will be a degree cooler or so with the cloud cover in place/or moving in....middle 50s North..Upper 50s Central...Lower 60s South...Lows tonight in the lower to middle 40s across the FA...With WAA still in place tonight and tomorrow morning temps should reach the upper 50s to lower 60s early in the day...CDFNT front swings through the area mid to late afternoon ending rain chances...Still will keep a slight chance do to the CAA wringing out left of moisture....

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

CAA keeps hold of the FA will carry a small chance of INSTBY showers as very cold air in the upper levels...If we get some SFC heating going this aid in the DVLPMT of showers,Lapse rates are rather high..See no reason why there won't be some ISO showers in the AFTN..
Highs on Friday FCSTED to be in the lower to middle 50s..With lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s maybe some middle 30 Southern areas....
Saturday...Temps warm back into the middle to upper 50s...Right now Am not thrill about rain,will leave Sat dry....Lowes Sat night drop back into the 30s....Sunday looks to be dry with highs in 50s to lower 60s...Lows once again back into the 30s.....Temps will reamin that way through much of the upcoming work week....So the cool spring just won't give up...

Monday, April 27, 2009

Reasons for no forecast today and maybe tomorrow

As stated in the subject line...Today was a day I wanted to redo my website...I looked at the computer models really not that much has changed...Middle 50s to around 60 through the week with lows in the middle 30 to around 40...Nest chance of thunderstorms come in around Wed and holds right through Thur night...Just a small chance of showers Fri...The weekend looks dry and still temps in the cool side..So the cool spring lives on....There that was a fast forecast...Back to the reason for not a detailed forecast.Like I have said, I was working on my website today spent about 10 hours ...Will work on it tomorrow once again..So don't count on a detailed forecast...Most of the work I did today was on paper,and offline,though I did add the April 24 th pictures and the lightning pictures to the site...If things go right, tomorrow everyone should see a big change to my site..

Sunday, April 26, 2009

AFD/thinking on severe storm threat below the AFD

Forecast headaches..Lots of them for today and tonight However much more needed rain on it's way for the FA....So lets get right to it..

CURRENT CONDITIONS...

Temps staring off in the 30s and 40s across entire FA...Radar showing some returns over WI areas,along with an area North/Northwest of Brainerd MN,,,

SFC ANALYSIS....

This morning we find a 1001 low pressure system over CO...Also another waves of low pressure through out much of the Central and Northern Rockies...A 1031 High pressure sitting over SE Hudson Bay...

TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT....

System over CO is forecasted to move into the eject into the Central pains this morning...This is forecasted to push a warm front North..Later today Low is forecasted to move into Western IA then Northeast through NW WI...Problem is how far to bring the warm front North before the low slams a cold front into the area....Thinking is as of right now...Will bring warm front North into my far Northern areas of WI..Then will time the cold front to push through that area sometime after midnight LLJ really cranks up today through NW WI models showing this kicking up to 50 KTs..Lets talk about my MN zones as them will the easiest...
Rain is forecasted to keep moving into the area today..At this point in time looks like a 1/4 inch of rain for most areas...However my Southern MN FA could very will see 1/2 to 3/4 inches of rain... Tonight I did run with a mixed of rain,snow..little in away of accumulations are forecasted...For the most part I did leave out thunder for the Northern areas...Will run with it in my Central and Southern areas of MN...Thunderstorms should behave them self's as the best forcing occurs in my WI areas...Lets talk about that area...Did run with showers and thunderstorms in all of my WI zones...Greatest threat for heavy rainfall should be along my Southern Counties...As much as 1.50 inches of rain could fall from today through tonight...What makes no sense at all is the SPC is running with slight risk of severe thunderstorms just South of my WI FA...Then they also have all of my WI area in a 2% chance of tornadoes,5% chance of large hail.. See there forecast for info...I disagree with them for the following reasons..there will to many clouds through out the area today..This will hold down the instabilities..Lapse rates are looking rather nice however,and some signs of upper level support...If the area can break into some sunshine this afternoon this allow for SFC heating to get under way,which in return will allow for the instabilities to come up,if this happens we very well may dealing with another Friday evening weather event later today...We will keep a close eye on it..However at this time looks like just heavy rainfall....Also temps will be held down with the forecasted cloud cover....
Winds will become a problem for the entire FA....Winds could gust up to 30 MPH later today into night...

MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

Will keep rain/snow going over my Northern areas of MN and part of my far Northern WI zones...As some backwash moisture still hanging around....Rest of the areas should be breaking free of system this will allow for rather nice time frame,temps still below norms though...Wind still will remain a problem.Highest winds shall be found over NE MN..

LONGER TERM....

Did run with a slight chance of rain through out much of this time frame...Showers in the North with showers and thunderstorm in the central and Southern zones of MN/WI....I did keep temps on the cool side....

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT...

Once again as I did touch on this a little in the AFD...I really do buy into the SPC thinking...However points South of EAU once again would have the best chances at severe thunderstorms,if that area can break into some sunshine and get the SFC heating machine going..Something I will be watch later this morning into the afternoon hours...If Sunshine does happen looks like I will be heading back into them areas once again...Right now I have no plans to do this,as I feel the severe weather threat is way to low attm...Though I do may stuff ready to fly on the last min......SO TO RECAP ATTM I FEEL THERE WILL NOT BE ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN MY FA....

Saturday, April 25, 2009

Some of my storm chase pictures
















Well I didn't have the best photo ops with out ahead of the storms,either to many trees or hills..I forgot how bad the road network is in some parts of Eau Claire and Chippewa Counties.If I would have stayed on 29 or H I would have had better luck..To many people on them roads and when I side find a side road either houses or trees.Oh well the first chase of the year was still a blast. I did get some good shots of the updrafts after one storm passed by before the next one moved in...Yes I know dust on my lens AGAIN...That was never ending battle as the wind kept blowing dust around..

Lightning pictures







After the crap with the hail I just had to get lightning pictures..So back out in the yard I went...The lightning was more orange in color do to the falling rain..I was not in the rain shaft but the lightning sure was...

Hail pictures with a story to why the blurry pictures











First off we will start with the hail pictures...I'm almost ashamed to put these up..However there is a funny story behind this...After I got back home from my chase.I though I would try to get some lighting pictures...Well for awhile nothing there was working out to good for me,that did change see other post for them...Anyway so I got the camera on the tripod..Out of now where is started to hail,no rain at that point just hail..Without thinking I pointed the camera down a little and took these pictures.I reached down a grabbed some of the hail and once again shot snapped off a picture..By this time the some of the hail stones were getting as big as quarters.So I ran into my garage, put some hail stones on the table .Then I called this into the NWS..Well after I got off the phone I took some pictures of it on the table,by that time the hail was melted down to around 3/4s of an inch..Found my ruler and snapped off another picture...While doing all of this yes I forgot to refocus the darn camera,,Hence the blurry pictures...Yes I did get beamed a few times,and yes it did hurt!

Satellite grabs from yesterday's severe storms
















This is what I was doing when Dirk was out chasing this..Here are the satllite images.Look at the time shows how fast this blew up when the cap broke.I did'nt not get any radar grabs,as I busy nowcasting for Dirk.Sorry about that.Yes Dirk is watching my typing this all out,help out with the severe storm write up.

Yesterday's severe weather write up...

First off here are the temps form the Rice Lake Airport...I really hate using this..However my station recorded 85.9...That is a bogus reading....See this link for that.... http://www.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KRPD.html



Ok so why did the severe thunderstorms happen a little more North than we forecasted...We remind you it really was not that it was not than more North...Just one County North of where we had forecasted...Also we will talk about why the severe thunderstorm happen more to the East than we though they would....We did kind of bust on that side..Though Dirk did say he "he was not to thrilled about severe storms In North central WI" so this does lead me to believe he did have it covered,just he didn't want to really commit to that area.....
So here was the deal....The cold front was moving in as forecasted timing was darn near right on the money...Late morning we had strong warming take place not only is the boundary level area,but also in the upper layers of the atmosphere...Not only did this throw a strong cap (like we though,just not as strong as it turned out to be)...This slowed the cold front down to crawl...There was also a prefrontal boundary that came through the Western Counties of the FA...This push into Central Barron County and for the part stalled..ACs started to form from line form Southeastern MN right through North Central WI satellite imagery show this rather well..The cap broke over SE MN this allowed for thunderstorms to fire up near Wabuasha MN...These storm tracked to the Northeast,while more storms fires up along the SW part of said ACs line..See satellite grabs in the post above,as this is only for text.....By time storms started to fire up the cold front caught up to the prefrontal boundary..Cold front got hung up from Rice Lake South into SE MN...Storms firing along the cold front and kept moving Northeast..Same time other storms kept firing along the Western Barron County onto Western Dunn and Eastern St.Croix Counties....Storms were able go severe over Southeastern Dunn County,and Chippewa County and point South.....Cold front slowing pushed into Rusk County allowing for thunderstorms to move to the Northeast..Severe storms either moved or fired up into North Central WI....Turned out that push of very warm and dry air in the upper levels showed everything down this gave time for the cap to weaken along the prefrontal boundary...So the short reason to why severe thunderstorms blew up A county North than we forecasted and to our East...Main reports were hail however there was some wind damage reports later in the night....

Dirk does have pictures of his chase day...He will be posting them later, this way everyone has a chance to read this..He got back home just in time to catch some hail here,He said some of the hail was quarter size,most were nickel size up..He said the ground did get white from the hail...Also he will post pictures of that...He will have most of the pictures posted to his web site on Monday..

The weekend Forecast..

Forecast problems..Much needed rain still falling at this hour..Though it may be a rather wet weekend most agree the rain is needed.....Rain and then thunderstorm chances for Sunday and Sunday night...Temps rather simple 50s through out the whole forecast cycle...Also no severe thunderstorms are forecasted for the area on Sunday..The only areas that may strong to severe thunderstorms would by to the South..Southwest WI over to around the Door County area,and points South of there..

CURRENT CONDITIONS....

What a difference 24 hours makes..Yesterday at time we were in the 50s...Today temps are in the 30s and 40s...Winds are out of the North/Northwest across all of our FA...Radar showing a large area of showers and a few embedded thunderstorms over the Southern FA...Also radar showing showers over our Central and Northern areas...

SFC ANALYSIS.....

Cold front that pushed through the area during the evening hours is now over Southern WI,reaching through Central IA then through KS to a 1008 MB low pressure.Meanwhile we find a 1022 MB high pressure over far Western SD....

TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT....

Cold front will keep moving away from the area and will get stalled out over Central IL and Northern MO...Meantime we will see shortwaves move along the frontal boundary...This will keep moisture over riding the said front...Will keep highest chances of rain this morning..With off and on showers through out the rest of the day..Will run with temps in the lower 50s North to the middle 50s South..Will also keep a chance of thunderstorm alive in my far Southern Counties....Tonight cold front is forecasted to start to works it's way back North as a warm front...As a 1001 MB low pressure over SW NE begins to lift NE..This will cause moisture to be drawn back North will keep the best chances of showers and thunderstorms in my Southern Counties,with a slight chance in my Central Counties...My Northern Counties may not see and rain at all tonight....Lows tonight will range from the 30s North to middle 40s South....

SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.....

Sunday morning the warm front moves into my Southern areas and lifts Northwards into my Central areas in the afternoon hours..Then through my Northern areas late afternoon...1004 MB low pressure will also move into Southern central area of MN then move right through NW WI....This low will also drag a cold front into the area Sunday evening...Showers and thunderstorms will kick off once again...Some of these storms could be on the strong side from my Central Counties down into my Southern Counties by Sunday afternoon/Early evening....Thinking is the severe thunderstorms will remain out of my FA...Some may brush my far Southern Counties....See above for thinking as to where we feel Severe thunderstorms may set up....Highs on your Sunday will range from the middle 40s North to the lower 60s South...Sunday night Will keep showers and a few thunderstorms going to around the 12 Am to 1 Am in my Southern and Central Counties...Our Northern Counties will be dealing with rain mixing with snow and freezing rain...Than may pick up and inch or so up there...Lows Sunday night will drop to the lower 30s North, lowers 40s Central,and middle 40s South....

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.....

A break in the action is on tap for the FA through period...Mostly sunny skies and mostly clear nights....Temps will range from the lower 60s South..To Lower to middle 50s Central..May be in the upper 50s by Wed....Temps in the North mainly in the middle to upper 40s.....
Looks like more showers and thunderstorms on the way for late in the week...With chances of snow through the over night hours up North....
No time for a long range FCST as we will talk about why the severe weather happened a little more North.also why the severe weather took off to the East of the area....However for the most part yesterday's forecast was right on the tee....
Forecasters Dirk/Paul....

Friday, April 24, 2009

Loon Pictures..




While out at Silver lake I saw able to get some pictures of one of my favorite birds,and he was talking to me...I love the sounds the loons make!

Drought pictures...







Drought conditions....Despite the above normal snowfall last winter..Areas lakes are going down at a rather fast pace...Lack of spring rains and lack of really good fall rains..This is what Silver lake looks like....Most lakes are down big time through out the area..

Pictures




Still trying to figure out if we are heading for IA today...Meanwhile I had to get some pictures this morning....

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FORECASTED!

Forecast will run it's coarse...Just as we thought over the last few days severe thunderstorms will remain South of area...I'm still not to thrilled about North Central,Central WI for severe storms....Still feel if anything happens it will be points South of EAU...I'm happy about IA for the better chance at seeing severe thunderstorms...A rainy weekend on tap for the FA...

CURRENT CONDITIONS....

Temps this morning range from the lower 50s to middle 50 across the FA....Winds at this hour a rather light..DPS still not that high middle to upper 40s a few station reporting 50°..Radar is showing a few showers from Douglas County down into Polk County...Better area of showers and some thunderstorms are showing up over parts of Trempealeau.Jackson Counties and points South and East of there...

SFC ANALYSIS......

Cold front is sitting over Eastern parts of MN from just West of Duluth down towards LXL Then towards SW MN....Large high pressure is reaching from Canada down into MT pressure of high sitting right around 1022 MBS...

TODAY...

Cold front is moving faster than models have forecasted,However we had the handle on this the last few days....With the cold front moving faster than models have thought this will put the squash on any chances of severe thunderstorms in most of my FA..Like stated above best areas to see strong to severe thunderstorms will be point South of EAU.Though this is very slim chance in them areas also..Which has been in the running forecast for the past few days......BY 18z cold front will have pushed through most of my FA ...DPS still not as high as models have been forecasting...Right now DPS are in the Middle to upper 40s some 50s also showing in the SFC OBS...Also a very strong Cap in place this morning...This is not forecasted to break until later today..By time it does I feel the cold front will have pushed out of the my FA,Winds will become West/Northwest this morning ...Highs today will be tricky...60s up in my Northern parts of the FA 70s in the Central areas.80s possible in my Southern areas..

Tonight....

A better chance at showers and thunderstorms as the front is South of the area however moisture will be over riding the frontal boundary...Along with waves riding along the boundary...Parts of the area could pick up close to 1/2 of much needed rainfall tonight...Lows tonight will pull back into the low 40s....

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Best chance of showers and thunderstorms will be found in the early to mid morning hours...Cold front is forecasted to be more South of the area than was forecasted..So Sat may very well turn out to be drier...Temps will be much colder with highs right around the 50 degree mark....Sat night more moisture starts to work it's way back Northward into the area..As of right now will only run with a slight chance of showers and t-storms...Low fall into the upper 30s....Sunday looks to be a wet day for the FA..More showers and storms for the area as a wave will move along the frontal boundary..This will help to push the boundary back North closer to the area,this will allow for moisture to once again over ride the boundary area sparking of showers and thunderstorms....No severe thunderstorms are forecasted for the area....

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY....

Looks dry and cool with highs in the 50s maybe some low 60s by Thur...Lows in the 30s and 40s....

So to recap...No severe thunderstorms for the area....

Thursday, April 23, 2009

No change to my FCST....

Sorry I was late with this...Slept in to 6 AM the first time in years I did that!...No Amy I did not change my mind on the FCST...

Forecast problems...Today wind temps...Friday timing of cold front will depend if thunderstorms become severe or not...Temps fall back to below norms to start the new work week......
Warm front pushed through the areas early last night around 9 - 10 PM Winds have been increasing all night long as a strong WAA kicked in..This morning some sprinkles have been dotting the landscape

CURRENT CONDITIONS.....

Very windy conditions will great all this morning....Area of sprinkles now clearing the FA...Southern areas will still some off and on Sprinkles/light showers over the next hour or so...Temps in the middle to upper 40s with a few areas hitting the lower 50s...DPS still rather dry with 20s and 30s...

SFC ANALYSIS.....

WAA well under it's way this morning as a 1020MB high pressure off to our Southeast over the OH area is pumping in warmer temps on Southerly winds....Meanwhile we find a cold front over parts of ND,MT area...

TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.....

High pressure will be control of our weather...Strong Southerly winds will pump temps up into the middle 70s,winds are going to a problem for those who drive high profile vehicles or boaters..Wind are forecast to 15 to 25 MPH with gust hitting the 30 32 MPH range...Tonight will be remarkably warm was Southerly winds will still be rather strong across the FA temps fall only into the middle 50s...Wind 10 to 20 MPH with gust still reaching 30 MPH will be possible.....

FRIDAY....

The problem day which has everyone talking about severe thunderstorms....Well Am still having a hard time buying into....First lets talk about models and Soundings...Then my thoughts to this whole thing.....
Models that is some of them have slowed the cold front down by a few hours or so...By 00z Friday front is only into the NW 1/3 of MN..We also see a 993 MB low pressure out over SD,which models did not show yesterday attm....By 06z Friday cold front still not making to much movement to the SE,however said low makes into Central SD by this time frame...By 12z cold front knocking on the door step of WI with said low over SW MN...CAPE sitting around 1500 to 2000 K/JG LI up to around -4 - -7 H85-H5 Lapse rate 7.4 C/KM..BRN SHEAR around 8.0...CIN is around -71,and convection temps around the upper 80s to around 90..Model still show DPs hitting the 50 to 55...By looking at all of that I would have to agree severe thunderstorms would be possible.....Ok my thoughts on this...I still feel models are over doing the rich GOM moisture this far North..Second there will be strong cap over head,700 MB temps in the +5...Cin is to high along with the convection temps...Plus the timing of the cold front is still up in the air on all of the models,that it's self will have a big impact on the severe weather threat...I still think cold front will push through the area well before prime time heating sets forth...So I'm still going to run with my FCST I had issued yesterday and the day before...See below for that.....I still will have time to update this if things keep looking better later today or tonight...AS of right now I'm not buying into the SPC'S thinking on this....Only area I can buy into would down in IA and Southwestern part of WI.!

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY....

Cold front hangs up South of the area,waves are forecasted to move along the frontal boundary,This will cause moisture to over ride the front.....Looks like a wet weekend on tap!

Wednesday, April 22, 2009

Warmer temps/showers and storms/cooler temps

Forecast problems...Showers and thunderstorms...Than temps cooling back off for the weekend....Still no real chance of severe thunderstorms....

CURRENT CONDITIONS.....

Stations are reporting clear to partly cloudy skies this morning....Temps in the middle 30s to upper 30s through out the FA...Winds are rather light compared to yesterday....


SFC ANALYSIS.....

This morning's weather charts show a deep area of low pressure/trof over the far Northeastern part of UP of MI....We also find a warn front reaching South from a 1000 MB low pressure over Canada..Warm front sits in Eastern MT down into SW SD then down to MW NE.....

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY......

FA still is locked under a NW flow aloft..This will still keep temps down today,though with more sunshine temps should warm a few more degrees that yesterday....High pressure moving into the area will also help bring lighter winds to the area...Highs today should reach the middle 50s most areas..Tonight strong WAA kicks into play as winds back to the SE this will allow for lows to be warmer...Am looking at middle to upper 30s....On Thursday temps really take off .H85 temps increase to around the 20c which will yield most areas with temps in the middle to upper 70s...Will run with a chance of some reggae showers and thunderstorms in the late afternoon,however it does appear a cap will form as 700 MB temps edge up to around + 5c Moisture not looking the best on Thur also so I may very well pull the rain out of the forecast later this afternoon's update...Winds will also be increase Could see another windy day like yesterday with winds up to 25 MPH along with gusts into the 30s MPH range,however it will be a warm wind...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.....

Cold front starts to make it's way closer and then through the area....A few things look interesting for thunderstorms....
Lets talk about this first...Moisture does start to increase Thur night with SFC 2m dps getting into the upper 40s lower 50s..However with cap still in place showers and storms shall be held back to along the front where the best forcing resides...Also post frontal showers and storms looks like a good bet....Lows Thur night will be remarkable warm with lows forecasted to be in the middle 50s....So far no indications for severe thunderstorms over the FA....Lets talk about Friday...
First off the SPC does have Eastern MN under a SLGT risk for severe thunderstorms see there thinking on their site....THIS DOES NOT INCLUDE ANY PART OF MY FA......Cold front was been slowed down by Models over the last few runs..However front will have pushed through most of my FA by mid to late morning/early afternoon....Highs in the Northern and Central areas should range from the 50s to lower 70s...Southern areas from around EAU and points South temps once again in the middle 70s....Ok lets talk about whether or not severe thunderstorms will rear their ugly heads.....CAPE does increase to around 1000 to 1500 J/KG SFC 2m DPS increase to around 50 to 55 out ahead of the cold front SFC to 3km agl Lapse rates are up in the 5 to 6 C/KM mainly over MN..SFC to 8km agl wind shear is on the order of 30 KTS........The only problem to this will be two things that will put the stop to chance of severe thunderstorms...1 To many clouds which will hold down SFC heating..As the cold front makes it way through the FA,even in my Southern areas...2...I still have a feeling models are over doing the deep GOM moisture flowing into the area for Friday as DPS right now are in the middle 20s...3....Very little forcing out ahead of the cold front...Most of that is right along and behind the front it's self..4 strong cap out ahead of the front..Now if I was to the best areas to see any strong to severe thunderstorms..I would say points South of EAU,and that is still very slim....Will see what this afternoon runs show.....

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY....

SW winds aloft will keep the area rather active with off and on showers...Highs cool back into the lower to middle 50s from North to South....With lows in the lower 30s North middle 30s elsewhere's....Front to our South should remain in that area,Waves are forecasted to move along the frontal boundary,this will insure the FA with off and on chances of rain showers...So of the rain could be mixed with snow from time to time mainly during the over night hours...Tue temps warm back up middle 50s North to around 60s elsewhere's....

Tuesday, April 21, 2009

Picture/ NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS!


Picture was taken in Mar....

Some weather groups and blog and new media are talking about severe thunderstorms....Well I don't buy into this at all.....

Now for those who think severe thunderstorms may happen.....I still don't see any clues that would lead me to change my thinking....Cold front will be South of the area before the best moisture can get this far North..Dewpoints not like where I would like to see them...The soundings also show this rather well.Sure Lapse rates are up some...However convection temps are sitting at 85.2° Which temps here won't get that warm...Middle 70s.So once again....No severe thunderstorms in my FA....With that said there should be thunderstorms around from time to time....

No severe thunderstorms! Warm,than cold again...

Fast forecast for now...First off winds,second temps,thrid showers and thunderstorms,than temps again...

Winds should start to slowly die down as we head through the day....Winds here at the office have gusted up to 32.5 MPH in the last hour....Temps will still be rather cold today...Temps do warm up some for Wed,then really warm up on Thur....With WAA kicking in and a cold front moving into the area on Friday...Will add showers for Thur/Thur night for WAA,Friday will go with showers and thunderstorms.....Here is where the models don't agree to much....One is hinting at severe weather,however the last few days it has showning severe thunderstorms then the next run backs away from it.....I will not run with severe thunderstorms...I feel most models are hitting the Golf mositure to hard...Plus there area some other things that just don't match up for severe thunderstorms attm....There may be a few thunderstorms that could produce some small hail,unlike what the SPC is saying,I don't buy into the large hail threat....Cold front will stall out just South of the area....Moisture over riding front will give us a good chance at showers...Again I'm not seeing severe thunderstorms this far North like some have been saying....Temps will cool back off again for the start of the new work week,back to below norms...We may even see rain mixing with snow once again.Sunday night..Could be like yesterday morning's snowfall...Ground turns white again....We will see.......I will have a more detailed forecast later today when time allows......
Once again no severe thunderstorms for my FA......Best chance at seeing strong thunderstorms should remain South of my FA....

Sunday, April 19, 2009

This frecast sure can bust,I won't mind it!

Cooler temps on tap for today through early next week...Much needed rainfall/snowfall also in the forecast...NE MN could pick up 1 to 3 inches of snow tonight into Monday,while NW WI could pick up 1 to 2 inches of snow tonight through Monday,while our Southern Counties of our WI FA could pick up to 1/2 inch of snow through the same time frame...Then a nice warm up on the way from midweek until the upcoming weekend...Showers and thunderstorms move into the picture by weeks end...Some of the storms could become strong to severe,however this far out I have decided to leave strong wording out of the FCST,and only ran with a 20% chance.....After that system moves through then we cool off some for next Sunday....

CURRENT CONDITIONS.....

Temps this morning are in the middle 30s through out much of the area some lower 40s in my WI zones...Some light snow being reported up in Silver Bay,while these areas are reporting mixed precip....Two Harbors,Big Fork,Other stations coming in with light rain/drizzle...Over in my WI zones no mixed precip being reported just light rain....Winds for the most are light out of the North/Northeast....

SFC ANALYSIS.....

This morning's weather is staring a much welcomed low pressure over Eastern IA/Western IL.with a trof reaching North into MN. cold front dropping South from said low to another low pressure over Eastern KS,Meanwhile we see a large high pressure over Hudson Bay Canada like we have for the past few weeks...Also another large area of high pressure covering the Western States.....

TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.....

1011mb low over IA is forecasted to move into Northern IL by 12z today as this does we see a clipper like system dropping out of Canada..By 00z tonight we see the low over IL washing out as the low over Southern IL takes center stage...Meantime clipper like system moves into NW MN...By 06z Monday low should be over Central MN...and the low to our South is forecasted to lift NE into Southern IN then into MI by Monday night....Both of these systems will assure us much needed rainfall over the FA..Better chance at seeing .25 inches would be over our Southern FA of MN and WI...Systems will drag colder air in this evening...We shall see rain mixing with and changing over to snow in NE MN and NW WI....See above for info, as it is all ready covered......Temps will be below norms through this time frame....

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY....

Am going to keep rain/snow going over my snow belts of WI and up in NE MN. for Tuesday....Other than that the rest of the area should dry back out with warming temps.....
.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY....

Here is when things get interesting...Models are not in good agreement this far out,no surprise there....They both show a big warm-up so went with that thinking....However GFS is showing the cold front moving through the area and colder temps for Friday...ECMWF model has the cold front lingering back and not pushing through the areas until sometime on Sunday morning...
Either way looks like showers and thunderstorms are in the card for late week into the weekend....Some storms in our Southern areas could become a little grumpy....We will watch this as models hash out all the details through the upcoming work week....

LONGER TERM APR 28 through May 5.....

We start the period with temps on the cool side,below norms again..40s and 50s across the FA,,We do warm up by Thur the 30 with temps in the 50s and 60s..Then back into the colder air we fall again for the WI fishing opener...Looks like we will stay cool through the rest of this time frame...How about precip.....Looks like a rather wet period coming up with systems moving through the area...

Saturday, April 18, 2009

Rain,snow,cold,warm it's all here

Much needed rain to fall over parts of the FA,while others see a trace...Then snow possible for Sun night into Monday...Than a big warm up for midweek through the upcoming weekend with showers and storms on tap for the upcoming weekend....

CURRENT CONDITIONS......

Temps in WI starting out rather warm middle 40s to upper 40s despite a cold front that pushed through...Main CAA still in my MN areas,where we find temps into middle 30s ....Eastern parts of the MN FA temps lower to middle 40..Winds this morning are from the N/NW around 5-10 MPH....Most areas are now cloudy per satellite....

SFC ANALYSIS.....

Cold front that pushed through yesterday still sitting just South of my WI zones...Large area of high pressure covers the Eastern part of the Country...We do find an area of low pressure over the TX panhandle this morning...Another large are of high pressure over the Western States.....

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY....

Cold front just South of the FA this morning as allowed winds to be North/Northwest...This will keep temps held in the 50s and 60s today...Meanwhile a 1001 Low pressure over TX is forecasted to lift into the OH/TN Valleys through out this time frame...This will cause moisture to over ride the cold front and produce showers...Have kept the best chance in my Southern areas of MN,and WI...These areas may pick up close to 1/4 inch of rainfall tonight through Sun....Sun night a shot of colder air is forecasted to move through the area..This should mix the rain with snow showers across all of the FA. Or Eastern areas of MN and all of my WI zones may pick up a few inches of snow..This will last into Mon before changing back to light rain Mon afternoon.....Tue should be a nicer day with the system pulling of to the East and high pressure building into the area...Temps should warm into the middle 50s once again....

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY....

For the most part this period should be dry and warming temps,back close to if not into the lower 70s by weeks end....Did add some small rain chances for the WAA kicking in....

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.....

By the weekend went with showers and thunderstorms as an area of low pressure lifts Northeast into Western parts of MN..More humid air,and moisture will move into the area ahead of this system....Sun... a cold front is forecasted to move through...Temps will be falling once again to end the weekend and to start the new work week

Wednesday, April 15, 2009

70,frogs, and birds




What a very nice day...So nice I'm sitting outside taking a little break..So this post coming to you from my laptop....Today we hit our first 70° day...Also today was the first day I heard frogs,and they be loud...Also took some pictures of this loud mouth...LOL....I love the sound of birds!

Testing the mapping program...

Testing to see if this works....

Bigger and better....The next level for this blog....

To all of our viewers we thank each and everyone of you...I just can't believe how big this blog grew...We have been getting emails from all around the United States...So with how big this has grew,we have decided to issue a new product this summer...If this goes well we will also use it for the winter...I have been working on this map program for the last few weeks,as you see just a little more work remains...However we have decided to show our viewers what they can except from us..We also have some other products in the working...So newer and bigger things will be forthcoming....With all the emails coming in from just about every state,and with many of you suggesting we go Nation wide with our forecasts,we have listened,and we are kicking the idea around..I already have the maps we need to take on such a task...I would say in a few weeks maybe sooner...We will be taking this blog up to that point...We both agree it won't be really that much more time wrapped up in it...However when do.We wont be updating every day,we will update when we have the time to do..For sure there will be 4 to 5 forecast..Who knows we may very well forecast everyday....There still is some small details we have to work through before we implement this...




Tuesday, April 14, 2009

Warm.cooler and cold!

Forecast problems....Light rain over the weekend and then a cooling trend back to below norms once again....

CURRENT CONDITIONS....

Temps starting off rather nice this morning thanks to clouds over night lower 30s to around 40 through out the FA...Where clouds cleared out sooner temps dropped into the upper 20s..Radar still showing some light returns up in NE areas of the FA...I don't see anything in the SFC OBS....Some more light returns over in Central and Northern MN..The only station reporting lgt rain is Waskish....

SFC ANALYSIS....

Weak system to our SE with another weak system to our NE..And a nice long wave out to our West.....

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY....

System to our South is forecasted to move Slowly pull of to the East today and the system to our NE is also forecasted to pull of to our NE...This has/will allow for the clouds to clear out of the area...Setting up a very nice day through out the FA...This should right through Fri...Highs in the 50s to the middle 60s ...With lows in the upper 20s to middle 30s.....Fire weather...Fire conditions across the area remain Mod to high..See no reason why that will change as HUM levels are low...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY....

We see a 1019 Low pressure moving into MN Fri Night...Will run with some light rain showers,however moisture coming into the area has dry air to work through..So Fri night is the Boundary level does not moisten up we may not nothing more than clouds...Will keep the chance of showers alive for Sat..Though the are of low pressure washes out over head...On Sun we should see a better chance of showers as a trof pushes NE into the area...Models showing QPF in the order of .25...May even see the rain mix with some snow up in my Northern FA....Temps through this period will slowly fall back into the 50s for highs with middle 30s for lows...

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.....

System pulls away from the area...So mostly sunny skies look to be the rule...Highs still holding in the middle 50s with lows in the middle 30s...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.....

Wed attm looks to be high and dry..We will be watching a system moving just north of the CONUS and another one moving Northeast out of SD..This will bring in another shot of rain Thru night and Fri....Temps take a hit as they cool off to around the 0c mark...So lows in the lower 30s with highs in the 40s seems to be the way to run....

LONGER TERM APR 25 - APR 30......

Lets look at the temps first.....Looks like a cold pattern still in place with temps below norms.....May see some snowfall around the Wed 29 into Thur 30 time frame....

Monday, April 13, 2009

Another test

Just another test.....Just like my pictures,my videos are copywritted to me!

video

Test to see if this works.

Just a test to see if this work...Not a good video at all,however if this works rest assure you will see other vids I have once I go through and edit them ..For the local people who have been to the SKYWARN classes through out the area have see some of my pictures over the last 5 years or so...Next year I will have videos..I'm now working on deal for a HD video camera..Just like the ones the tv news stations use...I won't even talk about the price of that....

video

Warm,cool.than cold..

Fast update...
Enjoy the warm temps we have this week into early next week....The big warm that was forecasted..Well forget that...Models showing NW flow taking hold of the FCST area after Wed of next week..Well below norm temps are back in the FCST..If this pans out high temps in the 30s and 40s lows in the 20s....What is interesting about this....Models have been playing the flip flop game..Though Am starting to see a trend towards the colder readings...So looks like winter is going to make his last come back for about the last weeks of April....the 23 through the 28.....May even see a snow event setting up...Lets hope this all changes...
This is off the 18z runs..Well will have a better handle on this tomorrow..Will watch all the runs and see what takes place....For those who are thinking about planting seeds,or moving plants outdoors...I would hold off if I was you!
AGAIN THIS IS STILL WAY OUT THERE IN TIME,SO THINGS CAN CHANGE!!!

Sunday, April 12, 2009

Not a bad forecast

Still not to much to talk about as the FA is still locked under a block pattern..Fire weather starting to become a concern...Though chance of rain/snow do show up in the forecast....Longer term...Big warm up on it's way....

CURRENT CONDITIONS.....

Temps starting out this morning in the lower to middle 30s across much of the area...Some upper teens and lower to middle 20s still found up in Northern MN.....Some high to middle level clouds are streaming into the FA from the SW...

SFC ANALYSIS......

Large area of high pressure over Hudson bay Canada shall keep most of the Eastern 3/4 of the CONUS dry...We do a small system over the Rockies this morning...Other than that not much out there to talk about....

TODAY THROUGH MONDAY....

Warm dry period across the FA...I did cut temps a few degrees up in our far NW MN zones to account for winds blowing off the ice pack/cold water of Lake Superior...Also temps will be a few degrees colder along all the shores of Lake Superior as there still is a rather large ice pack....Rest of the FA looks great..Did bump up temps in a few zones after seeing yesterday's trends..Am starting to get concerned about fire weather over my Central/Southern areas of WI into a small area of MN..I did add in some rain chances up in my Northern Zones of MN as a weak system pushes along the Canada border...Still not 100% sure that will pan out do to the dry airmass in place....

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY....

Warmer temps for this period through out the area,along with very dry conditions...We may have to issue a HWD for fire weather chances over a good part of the WI FA along with some of our Southern MN areas later today....

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY....

Another system is forecasted to move into the FA this will bring a small chance of rain and rain/snow showers into play...Mostly like will see the rain/snow mix during the over night hours of Fri...Will clear precip out for Sat...Setting up another nice weekend..

LONG TERM APR 22 THROUGH APR 28.....

Temps start off very warm...Looks like parts of the FA could hit their 70 degree temp..Could even be into the middle 70s by the 23rd and 25th....Temps do cool back of into the 50s/60s by 27th and 28th..So mild temps will rule this time frame...How about precip....Looks like a rather active period coming up with off and on chances of showers and thunderstorms....This is way out in time so things can change...

Saturday, April 11, 2009

Snowfall so far for 08/09

Snowfall so far for the winter of 08/09...Stands at 72 inches...With the hopes of no more snow...
I will do a month by month total at the end of this month...We did have way above snowfall this winter and way below norms in the temp dept....Are we done with the snow...I can only hope so..However I have see snow as late as May..So don't let this warm temps fool you,anything can still happen...

My AFD

Quite weather prevails through the Northwood's...Mostly sunny skies and mostly clear nights..Will be the main story....More clouds Mon & Tue night....Temps in the 50s for highs and lows for the most part in the 20s...That sums up the weekend and all of next week...

CURRENT CONDITIONS....

SFC OBS showing temps in the teens and middle 20s across our FA, Wind are light this early morning..Satellite is showing some high clouds drifting across my Northern and Central areas of MN,and into far NW WI....

SFC ANALYSIS.....

Large blocking pattern has set up over the FA...Large 1032 High pressure centered over the Southern part of Hudson Bay....

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK....

For the most part I left the forecast alone...I did tweak temps up a degree or 2 through out much of the zones,other than that the forecast is handed over to me rather well..I see no reason why to break stride,as this blocking pattern is forecasted by most models to hold right through the end of next week...Main storm track is forecasted to remain well South of the FA through put this time frame...Temps will be rather warm 50s for highs 30s for lows...On and near the shores of Lake Superior temps in the 40s for highs and upper 20s to lower 30s will rule as onshore winds kick in...Still that is rather warm for those areas...

NEXT WEEKEND....

Models are hinting at some precip coming into play...Large high pressure/ridge is forecasted to move off to the East by than,however Models have been under estimating the dry air that has been in place the past week...It will take awhile to moisten up the air..So I went with the model of choice..Yes old reliable ECMWF..Based on this model will only increase clouds and hold off on precip attm..GFS is way to robust with this system as far as I'm concerned....Temps do cool off some Lower 50s for the most part...

LONGER TERM APR..20 th THROUGH APR 27....

So when do we get some much needed precip into the FA ?.....This will be a hard one,do to the dry air overhead now,and the way models have been handling it...Dry air still looks to be in place for Mon.Tue we find a system moving just North of the area this may bring in some precip to our far Northern FA of MN...Right on it's heal another system dropping South should help bring a better shot of precip for Tue night into Wed...This could come in a form of rain/snow mix before mixing and changing over to all snow...Thur and Fri looks to be dry...The 25th through the 27 we may find more precip moving back into the area as systems move out of the Northern plain right into the FA...That should be all rain.....Temps start off the period on the warm side upper 40s to lower 50s,Then cool down into the 40s mid week....Than a nice warm up once again to end this period.

Thursday, April 9, 2009

More Lake Superior pictures




Here a some pictures...

Lake Superior







Well today was a great day for a another road trip...Have been kicking the idea around the last few days about heading South to some storm chasing..With this nasty cold I have had for the week , I decided to say the heck with that...So today I headed up to Lake Superior...This time around everything had changed..Tons of ice as far out as one could see.Well way out was open water...Maybe 10 miles out or so...There was open water looking towards Duluth area,where the ships go through..Well any way just click on the pictures to see bigger size....

Wednesday, April 8, 2009

Easter bunny




Well this morning the Easter bunny was at my place...He didn't leave no Easter basket filled with candy,but sure left..Well you know LOL....He's the one of many I have been feeding all winter long...This one comes up and eats out of my hand,the only one to do so....He still does not like the camera...However I still get some pictures of him from time to time....

Tuesday, April 7, 2009

Now taking the stage..Tonigh't Moon




Well tonight the Moon was great..So out came the camera once again..No telescope used just my camera and different lens...Sorry about the dust specks on the picutres,I forgot to check the lens..

This morning's Moon



I was playing around with this morning's moon...I did off center the pictures just to see how it would look....Not to bad I rather like the way they turned out....Click on pictures to see full size....

It's time to play the flip flop game.....

Forecast headaches....Temps through out the whole FCST cycle....With off and precip chances next week....

CURRENT CONDITIONS....

Temps greeting the early morning risers in the middle 20s to a few upper 20s...High clouds moving into the area,for the most part clear to partly cloudy skies rule....

SFC ANALYSIS......

996 MB low pressure over Northern NY bringing precip through out the Northern States....Meanwhile large high 1023 high pressure sitting over ND..Large ridge of high pressure controlling the weather through out much or the 3/4 of the CONUS....

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.....

For the most part FCST cut and dry....However the main battle today was how warm to go with temps...High pressure in control of our weather will assure us with a mostly sunny sky today....Winds will be lighter today,still out of the NW..So have chosen to keep temps in the lower 40s for my Northern and Eastern forecast areas,Meanwhile will run with middle 40s through out my Central FA...Will go with upper 40s in my Southern Counties.Points South of Eau Claire...Tonight temps throttle back into the upper 20s through out my Central and Southern sections of the FA,up North and out East middle 20s look fine under partly cloudy skies..00z Wed we see a cold front dropping into ND/far NW MN This system is moving rather fast so by 06z Wed cold front shall be knocking on our door step..By 12z Wed cold front clears the area...Will see a few more clouds on Wed,may see some LES on the South shore of Lake Superior,other than that cold front comes through dry..Winds will be a little stronger on Wed from the NW...Will run with the same set up with temps as I did for Tuesday...On Thur will warm temps a few degree through out the forecast..So middle 40s Central,Northern,and Eastern Sections...Upper 40s to 50 in the Southern areas..Again points South of Eau Claire....Lows Thur night lower to middle 20s North,Central,and Easter sections...While our Southern areas bask in the upper 20s for lows....Friday temps warm up more Middle 40s North..Upper 40s Central and Eastern areas..Southern areas head into the lower 50s.....Sat...Upper 40s shall rule our Northern areas along with our Eastern areas...Central areas upper 40s here also...May hit 50...Southern areas warm into the middle 50...Lower 50s rule most of the FA on Sun...Middle 50s in the Southern,and Central areas...Lows upper 20s to lower 30s possible...

LONGER TERM APR 13 THROUGH APR 23......

Note Models have been playing the flip flop game in the longer term over the past few days.Mainly with temps..So confidence level for this period rather low..Until we see more of a consisted pattern taking shape I would not hold this long term FCST to heart...As this FCST period now shows warmer temps,and many of us are hoping for it..Bottom line here is don't buy into this just yet...
We start the period in the lower 50s on Monday We do cool off some for Tuesday and Wed...40s seem the way to run for those days...middle to upper 40s seem the way to run from 15 through 17...Upper 40s to low 50s for 18 and 19...Models hinting a big warm up at the end of the time frame....Again we are playing the flip flop game and the models are playing it hard..One day the longer term is warm than the next day the long term is cold,now we are back into the warm side....One of the reasons why Forecasters hate doing longer term FCST......How about precip chances....Will be off and on chance of precip..Some which may be snow during the over night hours...Will worry about all this later...See above...

Monday, April 6, 2009

Cold warm than cold...Short/middle/long term Fcst

Forecast problems....How cold to keep temps today...How long to delay the warmer temps....Other than rather easy forecast as far as precip goes..Looks like a spring pattern setting up for the end of the work week into the weekend...Than cooling back to below Norms in the longer term FSCT......

CURRENT CONDITIONS......

Temps for the most part are in the middle to upper 20s...The Rice Lake 31° reading is bogus...The heat island effect playing havoc with that reading,just like yesterday when that had a high of 44...Here at the office 39.9 and our low here so far as been 25.7..Seems like when the winds are out of the North the heat island effect cranks right up...So everyone needs to keep that in mind....Most stations are reporting ptcldy skies this morning..Satellite confirms this rather well...What is interesting we have a flow right off of Lake Superior so my Central and Eastern areas in Barron County and into Rusk County,and points North are seeing that effect from time to time.In fact we can see the change starting to take place up around my far Northern areas as clouds have a SE movement to them..WV also showing that rather well...This should change as winds become more Northwest this morning....Speaking of winds...Wind range from 5 to 13 MPH across the FA...

SFC ANALYSIS.....

This morning's SFC weather map show a low pressure that was reasonable for yesterday morning's snowfall,well to the East of the area..Centered over Central OH...Meanwhile there is a 1038 MB high pressure centered just North of the MT/ND border...Pressure gradients have increased over the FA yesterday and still hold strong this morning...See above for details on this...

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY....

Cold air is the rule for this time frame...By 12z today 1038 MB high pressure builds South into ND and SD..Meanwhile 992 MB low pressure is forecasted to lift into NE OH..Pressure gradients between these two system will crank back up today to produce winds in the range of 10 to 20 MPH with gusts up to 25 MPH..CAA will wring out what little moisture is left..So look for a ptcldy to mocldy day...There may be a few flurries around from time to time...Not a big deal...Highs today shall range from the middle 30s to upper 30s just like yesterday...With winds howling out of the N/NW it will feel like Nov not April...Temps still running well below norms for this time of year....Getting to sound like a stuck record...Tonight Low pressure moves into NY,High pressure builds into NE as it does it does weaken to around 1031 MBs..Ridging of high into the area will cause winds to lighten up some as pressure gradients decrease...5 to 10 MPH or so should work out fine....How low to go with over night lows....This will depend on if we can rid our area of clouds and if winds drop over more...For now I'm going to run with lower 20s across the broad..May have to adjust them down more this afternoon...Will watch the trend in the clouds and winds...Tue looks to be a quite day as the FA will be under high pressure/ridging high pressure...However temps will still be well below norms even under mostly sunny skies....Low Tue night will range from the lower 20s to the middle 20s....

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY......

NW flow will still keep temps down on Wed....Though will be warmer than what have seen in some time....Highs on Wed and Thur should be in the middle 40s to around the upper 40s...Will still hold onto the lower to middle 20s for lows right through Thur night...Friday....High will warm into the upper 40s across much of the FA..Lows middle to upper 20s looks to be the way to run this race....Sat,and Sun..Southerly winds finally take over the FA this will usher in warmer air with temps lower 50s on Sat and middle 50s by Sun...Lows upper 20s to lower 30s....Could this be what everyone has been waiting for ? Will spring stay this time? Lets find out in the longer term FCST.....

LONGER TERM....MONDAY APR 13 THROUGH WED APR 22......

First off let us talk about temps...Then secondly we will talk about precip....
Temps do cool back into the 40s for the start of this period,and hold that way for the most part...Lows in to middle 20s to lower 30s through out this time frame...So if long range computer models are right we will fall to below norms once again......Lets see what the precip dept is up to,since the temp dept can't seem to do their jobs very good this spring....In the pecip dept we see some what of active period.....Mon we see a low pressure moving into SE WI...This should spread in rain into the area...Models want to keep some precip in the are right through Wed morning...We get a break from Thu through Sat before our next system is forecasted to bring precip back into play for Sun into Mon morning...Then another break to finish off the time frame....
So looks like spring will be on vacation once again in the longer term as temps remain below norms...

Sunday, April 5, 2009

March stats

The stats for March are as follows...Temps were well below norms for this month..Keeping people asking where is spring?....Snowfall for Mar was below norms,nevertheless for the winter we are way above norms in Northwestern WI...Days we saw snow...Mar 10 and 11th we saw 2.50 inches..Than on the 20th we saw another 1" of snow..Total snowfall for the Month was 3.50 inches....Below snowfall norms for Mar...While temps did warm up through the Month the ave was well below norms,thanks to a NW flow most of the month that kept Arctic air hanging around longer...There were two thunderstorm days...First one was on Mar 23....The second one was on Mar 24.......There you have it......
So what will April bring...Well it's starting of colder than norm..And so far this Month we have picked up 3.25 inches of snow....Which I think is already above the Monthly snowfall ave....
At the end of this month I will have a very detailed write up on this past winter,and see how spring is doing....Right now this spring has been very cold and wet...More on that at the end of the month......
ONCE AGAIN THIS DATA IS FOR BARRON COUNTY WI ONLY....All weather info was compiled here at the Weather Center

Forecast(AFD)

Note...1.50 Inches so far at the Weather Center still snowing rather hard at this hour..Should not really see much more than 2.00 inches for totals

Forecast problems....How far to bring the snow North today,and how much more snow will fall over our Southern Counties of WI,Barron,Polk,Rusk,along with possible LES for Ashland,and Iron Counties....

CURRENT CONDITIONS...

Radar is showing light snow/flurries through out my Southern zones of WI into a small part of my Southern MN zones a Heavier band of snow has set up over Northern Barron,and Polk Counties along with the Southern parts of Burnett,and Washburn Counites into Sawyer County...Temps in the lower 30s through much of my Central and Southern areas...While in my Northern areas of MN temps in the lower 20 to middle 20s.....Skies for the most part are cloudy with some Northern areas of MN reporting clear skies at this hour...

SFC ANALYSIS....

999 MB low pressure centered over SW IA this morning some what weaker than models had it yesterday.Which is also nicely seen on all the satellite imagery....Strong 1038 MB Arctic high pressure over Canada's mid section.....

TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.....

999 MB low pressure is forecasted to move into Northern MO/far Southern IA by 12z today..Said low is forecasted to trek through said areas and move onto the door step of IL by 18z today...Then off to the Northeast towards NY areas by 00z Tuesday...As said low makes to trip across said areas it is forecasted to pull down a few shortwaves out of Canada so flurries up in out Northern areas of MN possible Monday,and Monday night...Down through our Central and Southern zones of WI light snow is possible through out the day and tonight....Main areas to see snow would be Barron,Polk,Rusk,and parts of Sawyer Counties...Here there has been a range of .50 to 1.50 of snow over the last 8 hours....Not looking for much more in them areas maybe another .25 to .50 if we are lucky.....Strong 1038 MB high pressure builds into the upper mid-west pressure gradients between the low and high increase so winds will be kicking up out of the North..Not as bad as we were forecasting yesterday...Still could see gust in the 20 to 25 MPH...Still not to thrilled about LES accumulations attm...However there will be a rather good amount of fetch of the Lake,still other indicators aren't point to big event attm...We will watch this and see how it unfolds through out the day....

TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY....

Still held onto LES/rain for Ashland,and Iron Counties for Tuesday into part of Wed...Other than that looks to be a rather quiet period...Temps start the new work well below norms,however the good news is they do moderate back to the norms by the end of the work week into the weekend...Should remain dry into much of the weekend..With warm temps..More clouds on Sun as a low pressure system moves towards the area....Mon..I did bring in some rain showers and thunderstorms......

LONGER TERM FORECAST....(TUE APR 14 THROUGH TUE APR 21)

Tuesday Low pressure is forecasted to move over my WI FA..This will allow for rain showers may also may mix snow from time to time by Tuesday afternoon...System still holds onto my Eastern MN and all of my WI areas so rain/snow still possible..Models have really backed down from the big warm that was forecasted yesterday.So yesterday's long term forecast needs to be updated to account for this.Highs still look to be in the middle to upper 40s for the most part ...Models showing 50s by Sat the 18....With lows in the middle to upper 20s still ruling the FA..upper 40s to lower 50s look good for the rest of this time frame...Lets go back and talk about precip through the rest of this time frame.......Looks like another shot of precip moving back into the for this weekend......

Saturday, April 4, 2009

Forecast(MY AFD)

Forecast problems...Major winter storm to our South...Winds....Temps....
CURRENT CONDITIONS.....
Temps this morning starting out rather cool middle 20s for the most part,Lower 30s through out Northern MN were clouds held longer,For the most part still cloudy over in parts of my MN FA...While my WI FA is mainly clear...Winds are light out of the w/NW....

SFC ANALYSIS......

This morning's weather stars a 1018 MB high pressure sitting over the FA.This has allowed for skies to clear out nicely for most of the FA,however satellite imagery is showing clouds starting to stream in from the SW.We also find the co star 989 MB low pressure over Eastern CO/Western KS...This low will become the star today...We also find an areas of 1030 MB Arctic high pressure in Northern parts of Saskatchewan Canada...By now you are all saying fine and dandy,what does that all mean for us...Well I will tell you...

TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.....

Main focus will be on the major winter storm By 18z today 996 MB low pressure is forecasted to move into Western parts of KS Low is forecasted to move into Northern MO/Southern IA by 12z Sun..By 12z Mon low is forecasted to be into NE OH....
For the most part models are agreeing in this storm track..Biggest question I had was how far North to bring the snow...My thinking is as of now will bring light snows/flurries into my WI areas through out this period as the low lifts Northeast...Main area to see snow would be in my Southern zones....Barron,Rusk,and Sawyer Counties....Winds will be on the increase during this time frame as pressure gradients crank up between the low to our South/Southeast and Arctic high pressure to our North/Northwest.....Strongest winds should be found over my WI FA...Winds at times could gust to near 30 MPH.....Once said low moves out of the area Arctic high pressure builds in....Keep below norms in the temp dept for the start of the new work week...

TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY....

Really not to much to talk about in this time frame as high pressure will be camping out...Temps do slowly warm back to norms as we head through the work week,and into the weekend...I do have temps in the lower 40s for the weekend that may be on the cool side...Will change them if needed in tomorrow's forecast.....

LONGER TERM...TUESDAY 14 THROUGH MONDAY 20....

We start this period with temps around norms...Nice warm up kick in around Wed the 15 ..Temps could sore into the middle 50s..As an area of low pressure moves into Canada form the high plains..This will draw warm air into the area...We have a shot at 60s in our Southern,and Central areas....50s up North...Dewpoint sore into the upper 40s to around 50..on Southerly winds..Also models showing another low pressure forming in NE and Moving Northeast towards SE WI this will help to bring warm and humid air into parts of the FA..If this all pans out we may very well be dealing with our first bout of severe thunderstorms some where close to home..Temps still look to warm after the passage of the storm system...So with any luck spring will be here to stay.Back to this possible severe weather event...It is to far out to really forecast this,however I'm going to give it a shot...
We do see dewpoints increase to the upper 40s to lower 50s Wed/Thru time frame PWS increase to and to around an inch through out my Central and Southern zones of MN and all of my WI zones...LIS are forecasted to be from 0 to -2 or so Winds at the SFC forecasted to out of the South and than out of the SW from the SCF to 850 MB level 0-70 MB AGL CAPE is forecasted to run around 500 to 700 J/KG Some concerns that could hamper this possible severe weather event..Little in a way of CAP and CIN...This may very well lead to small storms taken the show before prime time heating of the day takes place.If that happens there will to much cloud cover around to get good SFC heating cranking up...Again this is so far out there it is nearly impossible to forecast..However it does have our eye on it....We shall see....