Tuesday, June 28, 2011

The forecast for Western/Northwestern WI.

Get ready for a brief warm up…Then cooling down a little for the upcoming weekend with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms for Saturday night and Sunday…. The 4th of July looks to be a nice one with warm temps, a great day for the lakes….The longer term keeps temps warm before a strong cold front knocks us back to way below norms once again more on this later….


At 11 AM skies range from partly sunny to cloudy…Temps in the upper 60s..Winds NW from 6 to 9 MPH….


1020 MB high pressure is located over Southwestern IA this late morning.. This will provide the area with a mostly sunny skies..Once this morning clouds do burn off…Vis satellite showing clear skies over in MN. With cu field over the FA, however there a plenty of holes..Except this trend to lead to mostly sunny skies… High pressure slips of into Southeastern part of IA later tonight, this will allow for winds to slowly become out of the South hence WAA should be kicking in late tonight early Wednesday morning… The high then moves to the East of us during the day of Wed this will allow for a return flow and warmer temp compared to today… Wednesday night into early Thursday morning we could be dealing with a severe weather event over the Central and Northern FA, however cap is rather strong…Indications are there on the models so will have to watch this closely, and update forecast for this if needed….For now will run with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms…Thursday high pressure still control of our weather….We do see a warm front working its way into Southern MN…While a 994 MB low pressure is centered over far Northwestern ND and another low pressure over Western WY…Warm and humid air will be flowing into the area between the Low out to our West/Northwest and the high out to our East…Warm front blast through the area on late Thursday night/early Friday Morning….This will set the stage for very warm and humid air for the day Friday...Two things that kept me from going higher with the temps 1. Winds won’t be out of the Southwest. 2. Higher dewpoints that are forecasted….If these two were to chance middle 90s would be a sure bet across parts of the FA…Decided to run with upper 80s to lower 90s…Models seem to agree with that… Middle 90s should stay over in Southern MN and into IA…..Cold front moves through the FA late Friday/Friday night’s time frame…700 MB temps are forecasted to be from 12 to 15 c so a very strong cape in place…So will run the front through the area dry…. Cold front moves back North into the area for Saturday night/Sunday’s time frame so have decided to run with a small chance of showers and thunderstorms GFS seems to a little too high with precip chances so will blend it with EC model….


TODAY… Becoming mostly sunny highs 70 to 75. Winds NW 10 to 15 MPH..

TONIGHT… Clear and cool lows 48 to 53.. Winds slowly becoming Southeast around 5 MPH.

WEDNESDAY… PC to sunny highs 75 to 80. Winds South 10 to MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT… Small chance of showers and thunderstorms. Some storms could be severe if they do form… Lows 60 to 65 South/Southeast winds 10 to 15 MPH.

THURSDAY… PC small chance of early morning showers and thunderstorms…highs 80 to 85. Lows 70 to 75.

FRIDAY… PC very warm and humid…Highs 85 to 90.

FRIDAY NIGHT.. Clear cooler less humid lows 60 to 65.

SATURDAY.. Sunny cooler less humid highs 75 to 80.

SATURDAY NIGHT…PC slight chance of showers and thunderstorms….Lows 57 to 62.

SUNDAY… Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms… Highs 75 to 80.

JULY 4th .. PC to sunny highs 80 to 85.


We start this period with normal to slight above normal temps…By time we reach the end of this forecast cycle temps fall back to way below normal…. We will find showers and thunderstorms making their way back into the forecast late in the day on the 5th and early morning hours of the 6th…Does dry out in the afternoon hours of the 6th…. The 7th we see a low pressure system moving into Central MN form WY then into Eastern WI by the 8th. This will provide showers and thunderstorms from late afternoon of the 7th right through the evening hours of the 8th… The 9th and 10th shall be controlled by a high pressure system with dry conditions…..Another low pressure system moves into the area for the 11th through the early morning hours of 13th ….Also a strong cold front will sweep across the area… Note this looks to be a very strong cold front for this time of year…..


JULY 5th … Late day showers and thunderstorms possible. Highs 78 to 83.Lows 55 to 60.

JULY 6th … Early morning showers/storms… Highs 80 to 85.Lows 65 to 70.

JULY 7th …. Late day showers and thunderstorms… Highs 80 to 85. Lows 65 to 70.

JULY 8th…. Showers and thunderstorms… Highs 75 to 80. Lows 55 to 60.

JULY 9th and 10th…. Dry highs 75 to 80. Lows 56 to 65..

JULY 11th … Showers and thunderstorms… Highs 80 to 85. Lows 60 to 65…

JULY 12th … Showers and thunderstorm…. Highs 75 to 80.. Lows 55 to 60..

July 13th showers ending….Highs 65 to 70..Lows 46 to 53.

JULY 14th … Dry… Highs 65 to 70 lows 46 to 53….

We may have to cut temps by a few degree for July 11th through July 14th time frame… Will run with this for now….



Monday, June 27, 2011

Post storm write up for June 27th storms

Well today was fun didn’t have to drive anyplace the storms came to me…..

Showers and thunderstorms formed along a cold front that pushing through Polk County..ATTM there were rather weakly looking…Near storm environment Showed these storms to really take off by time they reached into well into Western Barron County….They did indeed do that, though not severe…Most of the County didn’t see any rain or storms…The heavier cells passed Along and North of a HWY 48 line…The storms did produce a wind gust here at the office of 45.6 MPH…We also received so small hail…Didn’t really rain a lot just enough to wet the ground here at the office….After the storms passed with the cold front dewpoints took a hit from 65.3 down to 58.5 right now…Temps took a hit as well…Went from 76 down to 71 as of right now….Winds are rather gusty from the North/Northwest from 5 to 10 MPH with gusts up to 20 MPH at times…..

Below are some radar grabs I was able to get, along with some pictures…..Was a fun early afternoon. Storms happened from 1:20 PM to about 2:00 PM.

Below are the pictures as the storm is closing in and after it has moved East/Northeast of the office.

Saturday, June 18, 2011

Last night/this morning lightning pictures

Great lightning chase last night...Logged over 200 miles,tons of pictures,still no sleep....Looks like I will do it all over again tonight!...Here are a few pictures.

Friday, June 17, 2011

The forecast for Western/Northwestern WI

Are you ready for a rather wet weekend?...Have plan b ready to go on the fly…..Though the weekend won’t be a total washout….Outdoor activities could be dampened…Sunday does look to be the better of the two days…Will not play with temps as they look good from last night’s fast forecast….Have decided to push the severe weather threat for Monday out to the Tuesday and Tuesday night time frame….


At 9 AM we find most stations reporting cloudy skies…Ladysmith is reporting Sunny skies checking the Vis satellite this does confirm that report….Temps are in the lower 60d cool spot is Superior with 50….Some Fog still being reporting throughout the area….Wind North/Northeast..


This morning’s weather charts we find a 1004 MB low pressure over far Eastern WI…Meanwhile we also find a serous of low pressure systems from SD right through CO…Today through Saturday .. System out west slowly begin it’s trek towards the FA….Will hold rain chances of until later this evening ..If this system slows more we may be able to salvage this evening…Still moisture over riding a warm front way South of the FA and a cold front slowly moving Eastward will allow for showers and thunderstorms to fire up in MN and move into the FA…Some heavy rain does look like a good bet… No severe thunderstorms are forecasted…Sunday will still keep a chance of showers and thunderstorms around do to how close this system remains to the FA….Monday’s severe weather threat is now null as this have slowed up some….Tuesday through Thursday of next week.. A very strong low pressure system is forecasted to move along the IA/MN border into Southern WI/Northern IL…. This will set the stage for showers and thunderstorms….Some storms may become severe…Will watch it as we get closer to that time frame…High pressure builds into the area for the upcoming weekend….


Looks to be a wet period shaping up for the FA.....Temps still overall are forecasted to remain below norms…No shock there….

FRIDAY 24th ….Dry highs 65 to 70.. Lows 40 to 45…

SATURDAY 25th…. Dry highs 65 to 70 lows 45 to 50

SUNDAY 26th… Showers and thunderstorms highs 70 to 75 lows 55 to 60.

MONDAY 27th and TUESDAY 28th Showers and thunderstorms highs 75 to 80 lows 60 to 65

WED 29th and THU 30th Dry highs 70 to 75 lows 55 to 65.

FRIDAY JULY 1st through SUNDAY JULY 3rd…. Showers and thunderstorms highs 75 to 80 lows starting in the 60s cooling to the lower 50s .


TODAY… Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms… Highs 70 to 75 winds E/SE 5 to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT… Showers and thunderstorms likely…Some heavy rain is possible.. Lows 55 to 60..Winds E/SE 5 to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY and SATURDAY NIGHT… Showers and thunderstorms, some heavy rain still possible mainly in the morning hrs. Highs 68 to 72 Lows middle 50s.

SUNDAY… PC with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms highs 74 to 78 lows 53 to 56.

MONDAY THROUGH WED… Showers and thunderstorms highs starting off in the lower to middle 70s cooling to the middle to upper 60s..Lows starting off in the lower 60s cooling off to the lower to middle 40s… We may even be to warm and may have to really cut temps back through this time frame….


Will keep the trend of below normal temps going from July right through September.. There is no real signs that point to anything otherwise….Will also keep the area wetter than normal through the rest of the summer….

Now there will be hot days there will be dry times… This is an overall forecast once everything is averaged out this is what should happen on guidance’s and trends…..


Fall is shaping up to be near normal to slightly above normal for temps, with precip to be either side of normal….This forecast cycle runs from late Sept through Early Nov…..

This forecast will be refined as we get closer to Sept.

Thursday, June 16, 2011

Fast look at the forecast.

Looks like a wet weeknd on tap for the FA, in face this should hold right through Wednesday....
Look for off and on periods of showers and thunderstorms...Some severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday afternoon.....Severe thunderstorm threat for Friday/Friday night for the FA looks null.....Temps will be in the lower to middle 70s with lows upper 50s to lower 60s.....By Wednesday we will be lucky to get out of the 60s also this hold ture for Thursday....Some heavy rain will be possible Friday night once again.....Will have a indepth forecast tomorrow...Stay tuned!....Will also Have the rest of the summer outlook....Which with some data I looked at well lets say it should remain below ave for temps and near norms for precip.... Will detail that out tomorrow also...

Tuesday, June 7, 2011

Update temp report.

We have hit 102.6 @ 3:22 PM here at the office...Many other areas my family and friends and a few of our weather observers are also reporting temps of 10o to 102.9 was the highest so far.So its been a few years since we see 100s and this early in the game...Everyone asking does this mean it will be a hot summer..NO it does not mean that....Overall temps still look to average below normal....By Thur and into this weeks temps go back to below normal...This trend does look to hold its own for sometime....Will talk about that tomorrow....This was recorded on all of our weather stations at the office...Will update picture if needed..


Today here at the office we hit 100.1° this still could go up...This was recorded on all of our weather stations...Also family and friends were reporting 100...Enjoy it it wont last  temps cool off into the middle 50s to middle 60s for the rest of the week...Tomorrow will be nice highs in the 80s...More on that tomorrow.

Sunday, June 5, 2011

June 4th/5th Northern Lights show.

Last night was a very good long lasting show of the Northern Lights..I was setup by 10 PM and when it started to get dark well the picture taken began...The show was already going...After awhile the clouds started to move in after talking with one of my friends I decided to head North up to the Grodon area...Well as luck would have the clouds had the same game plan....So headed back home and the clouds weren't as bad so I was able to get more pictures so all in all it was a great night once again.

Saturday, June 4, 2011

The forecast for Western & Northwestern WI.

Looks like a great weekend for any outdoor activity one has planed…Will be less humid and cooler…Temps do moderate back into the 80s the start of the new work week through midweek…Then cool right back off at the end of the week temps may not even get out of the 60s by Friday….There will be periods of off and on showers and thunderstorms…


At the 9 AM hour skies are sunny to partly cloudy throughout the FA…Temps are in the middle to upper 60s with a few stations reporting 70.Winds are calm to light from the West/Northwest..Dewpoints in the middle to upper 50s with a few low 60s..Either way its less humid.


Looking at the latest SFC charts we find the cold front that pushed through the area in now about to enter Eastern WI…Meanwhile a secondary cold front is entering ND…This cold front should be knocking on our door right around 18z today….Cold front is not forecasted to push through the FA to around 06z Sunday…Front will come through dry…Front washes out over central WI and MN, as a 1024 MB high pressure system builds into the area…This setting the stage for a very nice weekend one we haven’t see in a very long time….Sunday night a warm front starts to work back into the area…We could see a few showers and thunderstorms along and just North of this front…This will allow for very warm and humid conditions to return to the area…Monday warm front rather close to the area so showers and thunderstorms will be possible some storms Monday into Monday evening could become strong to severe….Tuesday warm front blasts through the area will be a very warm and humid day…Wednesday we have the warm front North of the area with a 1004 MB low pressure system moving through Northern MN with a cold front extending South of low through Western MN…Temps on Tuesday and Wednesday should hold like they were yesterday…Middle 80s to upper 80s…Once again ATTM thinking is 90s will be found out over Eastern MN and in my far Southern zones…This time 90s could even get into my far Western Counties near the MN boarder..e will have to watch this as there are some indications that a good chunk of the FA could see their 90 degree reading of the year for now will not add 90s into the forecast will wait for a few more computer runs to decide… Wednesday late afternoon into the overnight time frame the strong cold front is forecasted to work Eastwards into the FA…This could set the stages for showers and thunderstorms...However just like yesterday capping does look to be a problem as 700 MB temps forecasted to be 12c + Cap does weaken by 0z Thursday, however there is still some questions to rather the cold front will have pushed through by then…Something we will work out as we get closer to that time frame… After that temp really take a hit downwards highs may only reach the upper 60s by Friday…

Hitting back on Monday’s severe weather possibilities…CAPE does increase to around 1500 to 2500 J/KG Lifted Index runs around -4 to -6… As of right now Shear is around 20 to 25 KTS so looks like a small chance at severe weather.. Also this activity will be elevated so look for mainly hailers if this were to pan out….


To sum this time frame up looks to be on the wet side with off and on showers and thunderstorms….Temps will have a wide range through this period ranging from the lower 70s to middle 80s with lows ranging from the lower 50s to around 70… Once the long term models start to agree better we will go more into details, right now it all depends what model one looks at….What I did was blend them together for this summary…..


TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. Mostly sunny highs 73 to 77..Lows 55 to 60… Winds North/Northwest around 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT. A chance of showers and thunderstorms… Lows 55 to 60. Wind Southeast around 5 MPH.

MONDAY. Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.Highs 77 to 83.

MONDAY NIGHT..Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.. Lows around 60.

TUESDAY. Warm and humid may be some showers and storms around throughout the day, otherwise partly cloudy highs 80 to 85.

TUESDAY NIGHT. Warm and muggy slight chance of showers and thunderstorms lows middle to upper 60s.

WEDNESDAY. Very warm and humid, highs middle to upper 80s.. May be some storms in the late afternoon.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A chance of showers and thunderstorms becoming less humid and cooler lows lower 60s.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY…. A slight chance of showers and storms cooler highs 67 to 73. Lows middle 50s.



Friday, June 3, 2011


There is no updates planed to the forecast or to the severe weather threat areas... Timing of storms may been a little slower,however that is covered below...Strong cap is still in place skies have been partly cloudy with off and on light rain showers... The hot air remains well South of the area in IA Southern MN small part of SW WI....Here is a the SFC showing this....Cold front and lows/waves along with the warm front....All this is approx. Map from UCAR...
SFC OBS from the NWS @ 3:00 PM



ASHLAND CLOUDY 79 66 64 S9G22 29.75F HX 81

HAYWARD CLOUDY 80 68 66 S10 29.78R HX 83

SIREN CLOUDY 79 68 69 S9G16 29.75R HX 82

RICE LAKE PTSUNNY 78 69 73 SE23G32 29.76F HX 80

LADYSMITH PTSUNNY 82 69 66 S8 29.85R HX 85


NEW RICHMOND CLOUDY 82 69 65 S17G26 29.70F HX 85

OSCEOLA CLOUDY 84 72 65 SW12G21 29.74S HX 89

Looking back at May

Time to look back at May...

May was a up and down mouth to say the least…. We had some warm spells, had lots of cold snaps…. Overall temps averaged out colder than normal once again.. We had a hard frost/freeze on May 16th when the temp at the office dropped to a bone chilling 29 degrees.

May 1st and 2nd we had light snow. Ground did get white for a while.

Days that had thunderstorms….

We had 7 thunderstorms day in May.


May 10thth


May 22nd

May 28th


May 31st

We had two severe thunderstorm days..

One on May 22 that did produce a low end EF1 tornado up in the Brill/Mikana areas.

The other one was on May 29th with 1.00 inch hail that fell just Northwest of Cumberland…

Total thunderstorm days =7

Barron County had one tornado watch issued for May 22nd 1 tornado confirmed

Barron County had 2 severe thunderstorm watches issued…

One on May 28th…No severe weather reported.

The other one was on May 29th 1.00 inch hail.

Barron County had 2 severe thunderstorm warnings issued on the 29th first one was from 1:34 PM to 2:00PM The other warning was issued from 2:45 PM to 3:45 PM.

The second one was from 4:34 PM to 5:15 PM…

Barron County had 1 tornado warning issued on the 10th.

To refresh everyone’s mind…. Thunderstorm days are when you can hear thunder……

Disclaimer all the above info comes from The Weather Center and is only valid for Barron County, WI.

So what will June hold...Well look for near normal temps the first two weeks then cooler than ave temps..Sure there will a few days with above normal temps, however the ave temps for June are forecasted to below normal...

Severe thunderstorms possible today.

After this morning's showers and thunderstorms clear the areas, skies should become partly cloudy...See forecast below that this info...As I will leave ongoing forecast stand!.
We are watching what could be a severe weather event for a good chunk of the FA…. The greatest areas to see severe thunderstorms would be in the red shaded areas….This area has a chance at seeing damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes….I have the same thinking as I did yesterday on the greatest threat areas…. Areas in the green shaded areas could see a few severe thunderstorms, however the threat level in that area is on the lower side..

A cold front is forecasted to work into the FA this could fire up showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon into the early evening hours…Just like yesterday’s discussion everything is in place for a severe weather event to unfold across much of the area….Capping is going to be the main player on what will really happen later today…..700 MB temps are forecasted to soar to around the 12c mark…This was the main player in why I did not go with a mod to high risk of severe thunderstorms…Just ran with an overall risk with a greater risk area…The elevated activity this morning should clear out allowing for clearing skies SFC heating won’t take long to destabilize the atmosphere deep level moisture will keep streaming into the FA with depwoints forecasted to well into the 60s….SFC based Cape forecasted to from 3000 to 4000 J/KG this afternoon.. Forcing is not that great along the cold front. Lifted index still forecasted to from -4 to -6…Wind shear on the order of 45 to 50 KTS still look to be on track.. If cap does weaken this will allow for thunderstorms to fire up rather fast along or just ahead of the cold front…There will be no problem for this storms to become severe rather fast….The storms should easily get rooted in the boundary level…Once this occurs the threat of tornadoes will be at the highest, mainly early in the storms life stages..Thinking is this would happen in the Western and Northwestern part of the red shaded areas…. In the green shaded areas the main threat would be for damaging winds and hail..With a small chance of one or two tornadoes… reason I didn’t go with a higher risk in my Western Counties for severe weather is the cold front should be close if not past them areas…..Along with this is where it looks like the storm will fire and push into the Western part of the red shaded area, where then the storms really take off…. We will keep an eye on it to see if we need to adjust the outlook area, though as of right now it’s highly unlikely that will be needed…
Timing of storms formation 4 to 6 PM….. Storms should becoming lines or cluster by time they reach the Central areas of the red shaded area, hence the threat then would be mainly damaging winds and large hail…

All the above is all dependant on if the cap does indeed break or weaken enough…If the cap remains strong most of the FA should remain severe weather threat free…So by all means this event is not written in stone just yet…

Thursday, June 2, 2011

The forecast for Western/Northwestern WI.

Warm and humid air returns to the FA for Friday...Showers and thunderstorms could form in the afternoon and some may be severe, However not likely as a strong cap looks to be in place…More on that later…

The weekend is a picture perfect weekend good weekend to enjoy the area lakes..Less humid but still warm…Next week temps look to be right around average. Though this is subject to change.


At 8AM Skies range from cloudy over in New Richmond to Sunny elsewhere’s … Temps range from the middle 40s up along Lake Superior to the lower to middle 50s…..Winds already gusting up to 20-22 MPH throughout much of the area….


Warm front moving towards the FA today may spark off some showers and thunderstorms, none of these storms are excepted to severe over the FA…The severe weather threat will be found over Western and Northwestern MN close to the cold front and triple point…Not really too thrilled about showers and thunderstorms in the FA for today or tonight for that matter….Most of the dynamics Will be found over Western/Northwestern MN..Will run with a slight chance do to some weak lifting along the warm front…Winds will pick up once again over the area winds could gusts up to 30 MPH today into tonight. Tomorrow is going to be a problematic day…..All indications point to a severe weather day…However looking at the 700MB temps this will squash the possibilities of that as 700 MB soars up to around 14c….Cape is forecasted to be from 2500 J/KG to 4000 J/KG… Dewpoints forecasted to be in upper 60s to lower 70s… Lifted Index from -4 to -6..PWS forecasted to be around 1.5”. Good wind shear is also in place… So if storms can form and push through the cape a severe weather event could unfold right over head…If this was to be the case.. Storms would fire along and just ahead of the cold front… Main areas would be East of a line from Central Douglas, Washburn, Barron, Dunn, and Pepin Counties timing if things stay on track would be between 4 and 5 PM….If storm do fire they would become severe rather fast before becoming linear this would allow for supper cells early in the stages…Main severe weather threat would damaging winds, along with some tornadoes , and some hail….This case is highly unlikely ATTM….Will update forecast if needed…

The weekend looks to dry with less humid conditions and cooler temps highs in the middle 70s should work just fine…. Next week is a real pain in the butt…Warm front is forecasted to lift back northwards towards the FA..Biggest question is where this front will setup shop….Some models push it North of us while others keep it just to our South… This will play havoc with temps…Temps could be in the middle to upper 80s if the warm front pushes North… Or in the upper 70 to lower 80s if it somewhat close…Last temps could be in the middle to upper 70s if front remain well South of the area…Thinking is to run with upper 70s to lower 80s for now…Most of the work week looks to be dry, however next cold front to visit the area should come in around the Wednesday/Thursday time frame….With that there would be a chance of showers and thunderstorms…Way too early to tell if any of those will be severe this far out in the game.

Notice there will be long term forecast as models are having hard time next week the long term models are even worse so will not waste time on it today.Though looks like we could be going back into a cooler than average period...from the 9th through 15 with wetter than average conditions.


TODAY… Partly cloudy to mostly cloudy, with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms… Highs upper 60s to lower 70s. Winds South/Southeast 10 to 20 MPH with gusts up to 30 MPH.

TONIGHT.. Mostly cloudy, slight chance of showers and thunderstorms …Lows 60..Winds South/Southeast 10 to 20 MPH with gusts up to 30 MPH.

FRIDAY…. Partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs middle to upper 80s..Winds South/Southeast 10 to 15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT… Partly cloudy with a small chance of showers and storms lows around 60. Winds becoming Southwest/West 5 to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY… Dry highs in the middle 70s with lows in the middle 50s to around 60.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY…. Dry highs upper 70s to lower 80s, lows around 60.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY… Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms Highs upper 70s to lower 80s lows around 60.