Thursday, October 28, 2010

Summary of the extratropical storm.(updated)

Added more info and pictures to this write up...Should be the last update....Click on pictures to see full size.
Also noted this storm does not hold the lowest pressure reading in the CONUS as thought...This has been comfirmed by the NCDC.... The lowest pressure reading for the CONUS was set at Canton,NY back in 1913 with a pressure reading of 955.0 MBS or 28.20"... Also this as occurred in March 7.1932 at Block Island RI...... However this low still set reacords in MN and WI....

This storm has gone down in the history books as stated before…. Some interesting facts about this storm. Here at the Weather Center we were talking about this storm since October 15th ,while other forecasting sites were down playing it we remain on top of it…. We knew it had a making of a major storm close to home, and sure enough it did play out that way…. The storm did stay to West in MN this is where the lowest pressure reading did occur. Bigfork MN recorded an all time low pressure reading of 955.2 MBS or 28.21” of mercury…. Superior came in with an all time lowest pressure reading for WI.28.40” of mercury. Here at the office we recorded a pressure reading of 28.38” of mercury…. This history breaking storm not only effected  the upper Midwest it’s effects were felt throughout a large area of CONUS and Canada….
This is a preliminary data from the SPC.... 52 tornadoes were reported the 26th.... There 9 people inj... 2 from WI as a tornado tore through Kenosha County... The NWS rated this an EF1....

Winds became a big problem with this storm… Sustained winds of 30 to 40 MPH and gusts up to 65 MPH… Here at the office we recorded a wind gust of 54.8 MPH.. This caused widespread damage… Many areas had lost power, along with many downed trees and power lines. Here at the office we lost trees in the yard and without power for a fair amount of time, not only once but three times we lost power… Was also damage to buildings throughout my FA…

Lets talk about rainfall…. Here at the office we picked up a total of 2.50 inches of rain. This was common throughout the FA…. Snowfall on the other had many of my Central and Southern areas stayed warm enough for just rain, while part of my central areas did pick up around an ¼ “ of snow…. My Northern areas did see around ½” of snow Wednesday early morning.. The highest amount of snow fell in MN with 9 inches in St. Louis County….

This power house of a storm system did drag in cold air in, here at the office we never made out of the 30s today... Don't worry the cold air won't last long... Details of that tomorrow....

Now time for some pictures….
Picture below shows two areas of low pressure, first one centered over Eastern ND,Northeastern SD into parts of Western MN...The second on is Centered over Eastern NE,Western IA..Both had pressure readings of 982 MBS.

The map below shows both areas of low pressure have joined and bombed out over MN at 956 MBS.

This is the satellite imagery showing how much the of the CONUS was effected by this history breaking storm system. Snow on the backside with severe thunderstorms along the cold front in the OH and TN Valleys.

Here is the SFC map showing the low bombing out over MN..Along with the very strong winds.Closer the isobars the stronger the wind gradient..Also meaning strong winds at the SFC in the case of this map....

This map below shows the times when the two low pressure systems joined forces...Map from the La Crosse NWS......

Below pictures are from just some of the damage that happend..

Wednesday, October 27, 2010

Info Taken from the NWS (update info from NCDC)

This info come from the NCDC.....

Did this storm break a national low pressure record? No. Bigfork, Minnesota recorded the lowest pressure in the U.S. for this particular storm. Bigfork had a minimum sea level pressure of 955.2 millibars (28.21") at 5:13 PM CDT. This set a new record low sea level pressure for Minnesota. However, this turns out to be the second lowest sea level pressure for a non-tropical (extratropical) low pressure system in the Continental United States. The National Climatic Data Center determined that the lowest CONUS, land-based, non-tropical, sea level pressure that can be confirmed is 955.0mb (28.20"). This occurred twice in United States history. The first time was on January 3, 1913 at Canton, NY. The second was on March 7, 1932 at Block Island, Rhode Island. These were verified by the NCDC using archived climate data publications. Many storms have been discussed as potential record holders for the lowest recorded sea level pressure in a non-tropical storm at a land-based observing station in the Continental United States (CONUS). The lowest that has been mentioned was 951.6 millibars at Bridgehampton, NY on March 3, 1914. However, this value cannot be confirmed by records held at the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Older post...This info form the NWS...
New Record Low Pressure for a Non-Tropical Storm in the Continental U.S.

A new record was set on October 26th for the lowest pressure in a non-tropical storm in the mainland U.S.

The massive storm system barreling across the central U.S. had a minimum central pressure of 28.24" or 956 mb (equivalent to the minimum pressure of a Category 3 hurricane).

This breaks the old record of 28.28" (958 mb), set on Jan. 26, 1978, during the Blizzard of 1978 (aka the Cleveland Sueprbomb). This is also lower than the March 1993 Superstorm (aka "The Storm of the Century"), or the "Witch of November" storm that sank the Edmund Fitzgerald in 1975, or even the Columbus Day Storm of Oct. 1962.

Read the latest summary of the storm—including reports of peak wind gusts—from the NWS Hydrometeorological Prediction Center:

First snowfall of the session

Just two pictures of the first snowfall of the session...Here at the Weather Center we picked up 1/2 of snow overnight.The snow did melt down to aroudn 1/4"...Should see another 1 to 2 inches of snow throughout the day....

Tuesday, October 26, 2010


This storm system is going down in the record books for the lowest pressure readings throughout Western/Northern WI….. Superior came in with a 28.38 inches or 961.06 MBS,Here at the office we had recorded a pressure reading of 28.40” this is the lowest I have ever seen a pressure reading in all my years of watching/forecasting the weather…. Winds another side of this storm…. Did have some wind damage here at the office and throughout Barron County….Winds gust here at the office so far as been 50.9 MPH…. This still could go higher… Winds of right now 30 MPH…. Gusts 40 to 45 MPH….. A record breaking storm for sure…. This one will be talked about for some time to come…..Not only that it was fun to forecast as this was the first place you heard about it....

Rain as began to mix with snow that trend should hold through the rest of this late afternoon and evening…Still thinking rain will change to all snow…. See the forecast below for where the snow line should setup…..


Rain is now mixing with snow....Still winds well over 30 MPH with gust up to 50 MPH...Had a few tress downed in my yard along with some large branches.... More later to busy with damage stuff tight now...

Short term forecast number 2

At 12:00 AM this Tuesday  morning radar showing a rather large area of showers and thunderstorms throughout the FA,this trend will hold through the over night hrs...Winds have picked up out of the East/Southeast from 12 to 20 MPH with gust up to 33 MPH through through out the Central and Southern areas...Here at the office winds E/SE 20 MPH with gusts up to 30 MPH...Mod rain falling at the office as well....Look for winds to keep increasing throughout the over night hrs...Winds of 30 to 40 MPH with gust 50 to 60 MPH with even higher gusts possible..This storm system could very well produce widespread wind damage from later tonight through Wednesday evening...Winds should die down for time tomorrow before picking back up...Rainfall amounts from 1 to 2 inches will also be possible with this system....Snowfall amounts should be light however will have to watch how fast the cold air makes into the area along with how much moisture will be in place...Will have updates on snowfall amount tomorrow if need....Still the best area to see accumulating snows though light as of right now, would be North of a line from Luck in Polk County to  Canton in Barron County over to Ladysmith in Rusk County...Stay tuned to the Weather Center for updates and latest forecasts on this power house of a storm.

Monday, October 25, 2010

Short term Forecast 1

Showers and thunderstorms are moving into the area...This should last through out much of the night...Pressure reading is down to 28.97 "...Winds will begin to increase as a strong low pressure moves into the area...Winds will ramp up to the 30 to 40 MPH range with gusts reaching 50 to 60 MPH with even higher gusts possible....This could lead to widespread wind damage through out the area for Tuesday and into Wednesday night....Snow still looks likely see forcast below for that info....It appears it will be some light accumulations... Still the track is not set in stone...


All my years living up here I never see the NWS issue a high wind warning....Taken from the NWS...My forecast will be out later tonight or tomorrow morning...Yes snow still looks to be in the forecast...Storm track still not written in stone so anything can change yet.....


















Sunday, October 24, 2010

Snow still looking likely for parts of the FA

Just a fast write up... Strong winds will become a problem for the area mainly Monday night through Thursday....Showers and thunderstorms chances on the increase once again for Monday late afternoon lasting through Tuesday...Could see 1 to 2 inches of rain with higher amounts possible...Strong cold front drags in colder air into the area we should see rain mixing with snow Tuesday night And should see that go through Wednesday Wednesday night into Thursday rain should become all snow North of a line from Luck in Polk County to Comstock to Canton in Barron County to Bruce and Ladysmith over in Rusk County.... These area could see accumulating of several inches.... Still the track of the low and timing of the cold air will make or break this...Along with how much moisture will still be around by then....More details in tomorrow's forecast.... This blast of cold air should be short lived,also it will depend on if parts of the area do indeed get a snow pack on the ground,this would hold temps down... So lots of things to watch... So extended forecast is on hold untill this very strong system is over....

Friday, October 22, 2010

Watching the middle of next week closely

Still watching the possibility of a major snow storm close to home for the middle part of next week. Our long dry spell is about to come to an end this weekend..So lots to talk about this morning….


This morning we are greeted to temp in the upper 20s to lower 30s..Cold spot is HYR coming in at 23.Winds are rather light out of the South… Satellite showing clear skis, though one would not need a satellite to figure that out….


Models are in rather good agreement in the short term….A little placement problems here and there…. 1017 MB high pressure centered over Southwest WI/Northeast IA/Northeast IA this morning is forecasted to drift into the TN valley, Winds have already backed to the South.. Mean while a 1006 MB low pressure is forecasted to move into Central MT… WAA is forecasted to really crank up this afternoon between these two features…. Highs should have no problem getting into the lower 60s.. Would not be surprised to see some middle 60s in my Southern Central areas along with my Southern areas…Northern areas should top off in the upper 50s to right around 60….Tonight we start to see an upper level low eject out of the Southwest CONUS along with it’s SFC low pressure…All this should do is increase the clouds…Also will with the cloud cover on the increase temps should remain warmer that last night’s temps… SFC lows pushes Northeast wards to Southern NE.. Moisture will be on the increase which in return will lead to showers. Can’t rule out one or two thunderstorms over my Southern areas..Will have to watch to see if thunder wording is need more North tomorrow… SFC low washes out over Southern MN/Northern IA however will still keep rain alive for Sunday night….We get a break in the action late Sunday night into early Monday morning before the next system plows into the area… Here is where things start to get a little tricky… GFS show a 982 MB low pressure riding the US/Canada border by Tuesday GFS has said low over far Northwestern MN and deepens it to around 980 MBS early Tuesday morning, meanwhile GFS shows a trof of low pressure over OK/KS area….Moisture will not be a problem streaming into the FA as the GOM is wide open for business. By Tuesday night GFS pushes said low towards Thunderbay Canada and deepens it more down to around 966 MBS at the same time is pushes a cold front into and through the area.. By late Wednesday night /early Thurs morning GFS has said low over Southern Hudson Bay area…With wrap around moisture see no reason not to keep a chance of precip going through Thurs… By then enough cold air should be over head for rain/snow from Wed night into Thurs….

Lets take a looks at the ECMWF model…

Here we see a 987 MB lower over the ND/Canada border on Tuesday by Wed ECMWF pushes the low to over Lake Superior and bombs it out to 966 MBS so ECWMF is a tad slower and more South with the low pressure… This model also shows an 984 MB low pressure over Southern KS this low gets pulled into the Northern low while GFS has it as a trof and pulls it Northeast into said low… so timing and placement are still off on the models as we see the flip flopping game has began… Models are also showing warmer air with this system as hinted in last night’s forecast discussion.

We will have to keep a close eye on how all this is going to play out as it still has the makings of a major winter storm close to if not in the FA…. Either way it will be windy system…. Gales looking more likely on Lake Superior Tuesday through Wed night…. Enough cold air should be drawn South to at least have rain mixing if not changing to some snow showers attm… Again this is all subject to change….So stay tuned as we play flip flop the forecast for the middle part of next week, over the next two days….

Thursday, October 21, 2010

Major snow storm?

Unreal is the way to sum up what may happen next week....We could be dealing with our first major winter storm of the session.Details below....

High pressure that brought us a cool day is forecasted to move East/Southeast tonight this will allow for winds to back to the Southwest this will aid in keep the temps up some as WAA slowly kicks in…Tomorrow area still under the influence of the high pressure to our East/Southeast and a low pressure system to our Southwest…..Low tonight should drop into the upper 20s and lower 30s throughout the FA….Highs on Friday should be in the upper 50s to lower 60s, won’t be shocked to see a few middle 60s showing up in the Southern parts of the FA….

Saturday is looking wetter for the area a the low pressure system moves Northeast this along with strong jet sitting darn near over head and wit some good moisture returning to the area …Showers will be likely along with a shot at thunderstorm or two as there is some instability forecasted. Will hang out the rain chances right through Sunday….Highs on Saturday should be in the middle 50s while lows stay in the middle 40s…About the same for Sunday…. Looks like Monday will be a repeat of the weekend…..

Now time to talk about the possibility of a major winter storm that could very will hit parts of the FA next week…. Though things are still unclear as timing and how much cold air that will make it down into the system before it pulls away….Along with the track of the storm system…. Things are slowly coming together…..Very strong jet is forecasted to set up from Northern CA across the UT,CO,KS,Northern MO then reaching into Eastern WI. Low pressure is forecasted to move out of the Southwestern States and ride the Jet Northeast wards to South Central WI/Northern IL. As it does the low is forecasted to become stronger by time it reaches Southern WI/into Northeastern WI….. Moisture looks not to be a problem with this system as the GOM is wide open….Now a few things that could go wrong…. First off the track shifts to the West allowing for more warmer air to get pulled into the FA…. Another one is if severe thunderstorms form to the South and rob the moisture flowing North… This is so far out there I sure wouldn’t bet the farm on it…Nevertheless it’s something to watch as it could have impacts on the FA….. Time will only tell….. Will keep updating this forecast…..

Wednesday, October 20, 2010

Snow next week?? maybe..

Interesting weather pattern shaping up for next week..We been talking about this for sometime time…Looks like our first snowfall of the session may be on the way…. We will get to this in while….


This afternoon the FA is locked under clouds and light rain showers/sprinkles as a cold front is working its way through the area..Cold front is knocking on our front door…Winds will be picking up after the frontal passage, though the strongest winds will be found out over in MN….. Tonight cold front races off to the East/Southeast should see skies become partly cloudy…. Thursday we see a 1018 MB high pressure build into the area this will bring us clear skies, with rather strong CAA moving into the FA don’t except to see temps warm a lot… Upper 40s to lower 50s seem the way to run.. This cold air will be short lived as the high pressure slips down into Northeast MO return flow should begin tomorrow night, As winds become more out of the Southwest..Lows Thursday night in the middle 30s… Friday WAA well under way under sunny skies temps should reach for the lower 60s across much of the area… Somewhat cooler air returns for the upcoming weekend similar today as another cold front and a 1001 MB low pressure system moves towards the area…..Should also see a chance at some light rain showers/sprinkles once again…Rain chance will be on the increase as we head through the weekend into early next week….


This is where things could become interesting in the Tuesday night/Wednesdays time frame….GFS shows an 981 MB low pressure along the MT/Canada border… GFS pushes this low into far Northwestern WI/Western Lake Superior by Tuesday night and deepen low to around 970 MBS then it races the low Northeast well into Canada…. GFS shows a rather cold punch of cold air as a cold front plows through the area, thickness values drop off, 540 thickness line well to our South and East for late Tuesday night and Wednesday… It this does pan out this would lead to rain and snow showers becoming all snow showers….Now looking at the ECMWF model we see more problem come into play…This model does have a low pressure along the Canada/USA border it has the low somewhat weaker around 987 MBS..Also we see a 998 MB over the OK panhandle this low is forecasted to lift Northeast to around Southern IA/Northern MO by Thursday… Then through Northeast IL Thursday late afternoon then into Canada Friday…ECMWF does show warmer air in place over the GFS’S colder air in place…Though a Northwest flow is forecasted to become stronger… So as one can see many problems with this forecasted time frame… Nevertheless the potential does exist for our first snowfall of the session… We shall see….. Bright side Halloween looks to be dry,may be on the cool side, but no Halloween blizzards in the offering...

Saturday, October 16, 2010

The forecast for Western/Northwestern WI

Back to cooler temps for the short term and most of the extended forecast..Problems today shall be the winds…Have decided to go higher than thought yesterday as models are more in line with that will talk about that in a few….


At the 7 AM hour we find temps mainly in the upper 30s to lower 40s across the FA….Satellite imagery is showing a band of clouds through Northern MN down to Southwest MN through NE…..This is also confirmed by SFC OBS…Winds this morning are still rather light out of the Southeast ranging from calm to around 7 MPH……Skies are PC to clear for now…. Radar is showing a few returns in North Central MN with the dry air in place its highly unlikely anything is reaching the ground… SFC OBS show no precip….


Cold front in Central MN will race East/Southeast this morning….Winds will start to pick up from the Southwest just ahead of said front before switching to the West/Northwest….Once cold front pushes through winds will become gusty with gusts from the 25 to as high as 30 MPH through out much of the FA.. Will see a period of clouds as the front moves through not looking at any rain, however a few sprinkles at best may be possible along the frontal boundary..Highly unlikey with dry air in place…. 1022 MB high pressure builds into the area after front clear… Winds will become light to calm this will allow temps to fall into the lower 30s across much of the area, frost is a likely bet for tonight…Sunday high pressure remains in control of our weather,however models showing another frontal boundary moving into the area for Sunday night into early Monday morning… Moisture is lacking so not buying into rain chances as models have it… Even if it does happen amounts would be so light… So nothing there to get excited about….Looking into Tuesday still looks dry with temps in the 50s lows in the 30s….


Problems still showing up on the Tuesday night/Wednesday time frame…

GFS still wants to bring down colder air into the FA…. Still shows LES across the snow belt areas of WI..Even by Thursday night GFS wants to bring snow as far South into my Northern Central FA…. I’m just not buying into this… ECMWF keeps column profile rather warm and near SFC temps to warm for snow….Will run with a dry forecast for my whole FA ATTM…. As ECMWF model has it…..Temps are forecast to mainly be in the 50s, however by weeks end temps show a warming trend into the upper 50s to lower 60s…. By Monday the 26 we see another system moving into the area this could bring a chance of rain back into the FA..GFS still wants to drag the 540 thickness line South throughout my Northwestern areas into my Central areas Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning if this does happen we could be dealing with our first snowfall of the season ..It does not appear to be anything big ATTM, but something we will be watching…Halloween looks dry as of right now…..This is so far out in time I sure would not bet the farm on it…..

Friday, October 15, 2010

Forecast for Western/Northwestern WI

For the most part the forecast looks to be dry with near normal temps through the weekend and much of next week. Tomorrow will be gusty day as a cold front plows the area. Little to no moisture for front to work with, so only expecting some morning clouds.. They will mix out by afternoon as much dry mixes down to the surface winds could gust up to 20 MPH though out much of the FA….Problems do show up on Tuesday-Wednesdays time frame…. Shortwave is forecasted to be North of the area up in Canada however long range models really don’t see eye to eye on this… GFS wants to bring colder air into the area while ECMWF keeps temps warmer… So if GFS is right there could be a chance at some lake effect snows across the snow belt areas. 540 thickness line does drop far enough South to even have a chance of snow as far South as my Central FA areas…. However as of right now am not buying into that….Not sure if I even buy into lake effect snows just yet….

One thing that did catch my eyes is in the longer forecast period Monday the 25 and Tuesday the 26th… Long range models are hinting at a chance of snow for the FA 540 line drops well South of the FA… If this does happen along with an area of low pressure moving through we could very well see out first snowfall of the season … This so far out there in time I sure would not get excited about it just yet, nevertheless it’s some I shall be watching over the next week….

Thursday, October 7, 2010

Great looking forecast for this time of year!

One word to sum up the weather…WOW…. Not much to talk about in the weather dept as our nice almost summer time weather keeps a rolling…

To make this really easy…. The next few days with star lots of sunshine with temps well above avg temps, highs in the lower to middle 70s seem to be the best way to run…. I sure would not be surprised to see a few upper 70s maybe an 80 or two….Night time will feature starry nights with lows in the middle 40s to lower 50s…Enjoy it some changes are in the works for starting Sunday night into Monday… Cold front is forecasted to work it’s way into the FA shall bring us a chance of showers as of right now don’t see any thunder, however if we can get the Lis up along with Lapse values…. Will keep an eye on it…. Cold front will knock our warm temps back down into the lower 60s by next week with lows in the 40s…. Will go more into details tomorrow morning…. Meanwhile get out and enjoy the nice fall weather, as you know this won’t last much longer…..

Tuesday, October 5, 2010

The Forecast For Western.Northwestern WI

Not much to talk about in the weather dept...Our nice long stretch of peaceful weather will keep rocking through Next Monday as it appears right now...Clear cool nights with mostly sunny warm days.....

Looking at the SFC OBS this morning we find temps in the lower to middle 30s across the FA...Winds are rather light out of the South/Southeast....Tons of sunshine to greet everyone....
Large 1028 MB high pressure centered over Northeast IA this morning per ETA will remain in control of our weather,as it drops to the South/Southwest.GFS has the high pressure centered over Eastern MN either way it doesn't matter a lot. Winds on the backside of said high will remain out of the South/Southeast today..This will allow for temps to climb back into the middle to upper 60s throughout much of the area....Would not be shocked to see a few lower 70s in my Central and Southern zones...Tonight we see a Shortwave moving through SD/ND this is forecasted to drag a weak frontal boundary  through the area....More of a wind shift than anything...Another area of high pressure following on it's heals is forecasted the high pressure to setup over the upper Midwest for the rest of the week... GFS is trying to paint some shower activity over the area for Sunday into Monday....For now am not buying into that,however it is something we will have to watch for...As of right now will run with a dry forecast....
This is really easy.....Mostly sunny with highs in the middle to upper 60s with a few lower 70s added into the mix....Mostly clear nights with lows in the middle to upper 30s warming to the middle to upper 40s by weeks end.....A great week to get out and do the fall yard work...