Powerful major winter storm to pound the area..

***POWERFUL MAJOR WINTER STORM TO POUND THE AREA***


This could turn out to one of this winter's biggest winter storms...This thing will be a long duration snow storm...All models are in rather great agreement on placement of the low track still is not set in stone,however will blend the ECWMF and GFS for this forecast discussion...

WWA has worked into the area during day yesterday and through out the overnight hrs....This shows nice in this morning temps...Lower to middle 20s across the area for the most part..Today a shortwave will be moving North/Northeast this lead to more moisture flowing into the area...So would except some snow/wintery mix to form in my Southern zones this afternoon....Then steadily push North effecting my Central and possible my Northern area by this evening....This system dies out so things shouldn't get out of hand in snowfall amounts,however 1 to 2 inches of snow will be possible this evening into tonight...

Thursday Through Christmas..

We will see a 996 MB low getting it's act go over AR low is forecasted by most models to lift North slightly Northeast into IA as it does it shall deepen to around 988 MBS or so...Low is then forecasted to push into WI...Between Eau Claire and La Crosse...As it does the low will deepen to around 986 MBS....GOM is wide open so Moisture flow at the SFC and 500/700 MB levels is great....This system will also pull warmer air Northwards..Also this system could produce thundersnow,which will add to the totals of snowfall..Thinking my Southern areas will see a longer time frame of wintery mix than the rest of the my forecast area....Nevertheless still looks to be a wide area of 8 + inches of snow through out the whole forecast area..Also will see a rather large area of 12+ inches of snow....Mainly in the following Counties....Barron....Northwest part of Dunn....Polk.....St. Croix.....Also some of the higher areas of these said Counties could pick up closer to if not over 2 feet of snow...Thinking the area to see that would be Northern parts of Barron and Polk Counties..However in St.Croix County I would not be shocked to see a few 2 foot reports coming in....Winds will also become a major player with this system..Winds could gust up to the 30 to 35 MPH higher in our wind prone areas....This will cause near to blizzard conditions through out parts of the forecast area...With vis dropping down to near if not zero at times....

With the timing of this system over a major holiday many people have travel plans.....One should make sure to keep a winter safety kit in there vehicle..Make sure to call someone when leaving point A and your ETA to point B....Have a cell phone in case you become stuck....If you should become struck stay with your vehicle until help shows up....This system could be one of this winter's biggest snow storms...Could turn out to be a deadly one....Could also see power outages through of my forecast area do to the heavy wet snow....
Stay tuned to this blog for the latest on this hum dinger of a storm....

Forecast will stand

See no reason to change the ongoing forecast,after spending a good deal of this evening looking at all the model data...Forecast will stand.....Looks to be a wide area of 8 + inches through out the whole forecast area...a large area of 12 + inches through out my Northern Southern areas through my Central area into my Central Northern forecast areas....Some of these areas still could see close to if not 2 feet of snow.....Northern Barron County,Northern Polk County, and Rusk County then maybe down into the Central parts of said Counties.....Will have a another update in the morning around 3:30 AM

Forecast discussion still will focus of the powerful winter storm to effect the area starting Wednesday afternoon,with the main area of snow moving in Wednesday night and lasting through Friday night...With a chance of some light snow for Saturday.....Some problems have creep into the forecast which could pose some problems for the FA depending if ECMWF verifies.....


Looking at the ECMWF....

ECMWF has shifted the low pressure more Northwest now....Track would be from OK up to North Central IA then right over head....If this track pans out parts of the forecast area could see more of a wintery mix,as warmer air aloft gets pulled into parts of the area..If this the case this will pull total storm totals down....This model still has the pressure readings down to 994 as it works into WI,however by time it reaches over head storm weakens to around 1005 MBS...Nevertheless this system still looks to be a wind jammer....Thinking is as of right now ECMWF has the track to far Northwest compared to the rest of the forecast models.....

Let look at GFS...

GFS has the low tracking from Eastern OK up into Southwest IA then through Central WI...If this is the case less wintery mix would occur over parts of the forecast area....Hence more snowfall.....GFS keeps the storm system rather deep,from 990 MBS as it pushes towards IA then 999 MBS as it pushes into IA...By time it moves through WI the low is forecasted to deepen back to around 996 MBS..

Looking at the NAM model....

Nam as the same thinking as GFS..with about the same track and same strength....

So as you can see there are still a few problems with the track,however Am going to combined all said models above.....Models are pointing at higher QPF with this system...This will also be a long lasting storm...Waves of snow will be effecting area from Wed through Friday night,and lighter snows may last into Saturday....Am still think a widespread 8 + inches with a large area of 12 + inches of snow....Still thinking some areas could pick u close to 2 feet of snow by time all is said and down.....Winds will become a major player also causing a lot of blowing and drifting snow,even with the high moisture content of the snow....See below for more info on this dangerous winter storm....

Major winter storm looks more likely

Once again this forecast discussion will focus on the possible major winter storm that looks more likely to effect the area from Wed night through out much of Christmas day....


Looking at the latest ECMWF computer run...Am still seeing what looks likely to be a major winter storm for the Christmas holiday.....Strong low pressure is forecasted to get it's act going over NM then it is forecasted to race into TX and should deepen to around 998 MBS..Low then races into Northeast KS/Southwest IA...still under goes more intensification down to 989 MBS...Low pushes into Northeast IA/ Southwest WI..Then is pushes Northeast through towards the Green Bay area before moving into the Northeast part of the UPI of MI.....This system has plenty of moisture to work with...This system also looks to be a wind jammer with pressure gradients increasing between the area of low pressure and a strong 1034 MB high pressure to our Northwest....This will cause near blizzard conditions if not blizzard conditions through out the forecast area....Could see thundersnow as the system really cranks up over the Midwest..This system has the possibility to become one of winter's most dangerous storms.With this being the Christmas holiday timing on this is bad....This system could produce 12 + inches of snow through out much of the area...Would not be shocked to be upping this to 15+ inches of snow (closer to 2 feet of snow) if things keep coming in line.....

Without going into much details the other models I use are also slowly coming into line with good old reliable ECMWF.....

If one has travel plans through out Wednesday night through Christmas day,you will want to keep up with the latest info on this possible dangerous winter storm....If this pans out this system has the makings to become one hum dinger of a storm...This thing could become a deadly winter storm....Snow will be wet and heavy per models,which could cause power outages...Will go deeper into details on that tonight after work...

Keep up to date of this major winter storm by tuning into your local news media or the internet...Also keep checking back to this blog as I will try to have two updates each day.....This is one storm we all hope not see for the Christmas holiday..With any luck this system will not pan out.....

Forecast discussion for Western/Northwestern WI

This forecast discussion will revolve around the possible major winter storm over Christmas eve and Christmas morning.....Near term forecast will have some light snow today then again on Wednesday....Still could see around an inch or 2 today,thinking is best areas to see that would South of of EAU CLAIRE while points north would see less...

***A POSSIBLE MAJOR WINTER STORM TO EFFECT THE AREA LATER IN THE UP COMING WEEK***

By all means this forecast is not set in stone in any shape or form....Forecasting models still all over the place with this system,however ECWMF has been the most constant so will Am going to lean towards that model the hardest ATTM..Also timing of the storm is still up in the air ,however still looks like it could effect the area over the time frame said above....The past few runs ECMWF has taken this storm more North....So while Am talking about the model lets break it down...

The 00z run shows a 1000 MB low pressure forming over Northern NM or Southern CO...ECWMF takes this low into Northern TX and deepens it to around 999 MBS....The low is forecasted to race Northeast towards the Northeast part of KS/Southwest part of IA...Also low is forecasted to deepen to around 981 MBS...Then the low tracks into Southern WI then across MI....With this track this would move the heaver snow more North and East then yesterday runs showed..So as of right now looks like all my forecast area could see significant snowfall accumulations...So ECWMF has been trending North with this system so for snow lovers of all ages that would be great news,however timing of this system is bad do to the Christmas holiday....Also looks like another wind jammer of a system...Which could lead to near blizzard conditions if this track pans out...

Now lets take a look at the GFS model....

GFS has trended a little more North on it's 00z run but still feel it's to far South compared to the rest of the middle and long range model.....This model has the system tracking from Eastern OK into Eastern Central MO then near Chicago,then through Southern MI....Also GFS shows this system to be much weaker around 1008 MBS by time it reaches Northeast IL....Just looked at GFS 06z run....GFS has come more in line with ECMWF....This run shows the system moving from Southwest MO Northeast to West of Chicago then North of Milwaukee WI then through the Northern part of MI...GFS still has this system weaker....About 1004 MBS by time it moves into WI....Either way the new track off of GFS is much better for significant snowfall accumulations across most of my forecast area...

Time to look at the GEM/GLB model....

Here 00z run from Gem/GLB has a 995 MB low pressure system forming over the TX panhandle....This model moves the system into Eastern KS then pushes the system up to the WI/IL border and deepens the low to around 991 MBS then tracks the low through Eastern WI into far Northwest MI...So this model is more in line with the ECMWF....

So to recap...looking at all the model data as of right now looks like we could be dealing with a major winter storm for the Christmas holiday.....People who have travel plans will want to keep up with the latest forecast from your local media,NOAA all hazards weather radios...Or just watch this forecasting blog for the latest on this possible major winter storm....The only reason am talking about this this early in the game is because of the Christmas holiday and many people will be on the road networks....This could turn out to be a dangerous winter storm...Timing of this is just bad...



Note number 1....


Once again this forecast is not set in stone! however over the next day or two the finer details will be worked out and I will have a better handle on this.....

Note number two...

With the area lakes having ice on them...Some of the lakes still are not safe...Best advise I give here is for sure keep your kids off the ice....With the lakes freezing over and the snows we had the ice has not really got that thick yet...I found this out yesterday while checking out some of the lakes....One can go from 3-4 inches of ice down to an inch of ice in a matter of feet's....If you must fish like me...be very careful out on the ice as it changes real fast!

Forecast dis for Western and Northwestern WI

Forecast problems.....There are many near,middle,and long term....Will see if we can work them out....First problem will be today and then Sunday.....Then the biggest problem will come into play Wednesday through Friday when a major snow storm could effect the area Christmas eve through Christmas day (morning)....So this forecast discussion is one big headache.....


Lets try to hash out the problem for Sunday...

SFC ANALYSIS...

Weather charts show one big power house of a storm system over SC/NC coast line....High pressure rules the Western states WV imagery showing a shortwave up in Canada...

TODAY....

Problems will be with the low clouds and light areas of freezing precip....That should end sometime this morning...Clouds should remain in place through out the day,however would not be surprised to see some sunshine peaking out here and there this afternoon,this will lead to another problem with temps....Right now am going to have temps in the middle 20s South and lower 20s Central and North...With that said anyone spot that is able to see any amount of sunshine temps could be a few degrees warmer....

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.....

By 12z today we will see the shortwave working Southwards in Alberta CN....Meantime a 982 MB major power house storm system is forecasted to of the far Northern NC coast line..By 18z today our shortwave should be in Southern Alberta...While the major nor'easter still gathering strength over the far Northern coast line of NC..By 00z Sunday we see our weather system moving into Northwest ND....Major nor'easter should be deepen to around 988 MBS as it heads North along the Eastern coast line....By 12z Sunday we will find the shortwave centered over Eastern ND/Western MN....The main story will be the major coast line storm system...This thing deepens to around 976-980 MBS.....This may lead to problem with our little system...If the Eastern storm system is slower to move this would lead to a slower movement of our system,hence will delay the snow by a few hours....System really does not have a good amount of moisture with it...So will be hard to nail down snow amounts....However Am going to run with one to two inches of snow...Another problem is where will this snow fall....That is still some what up in the air....One model keeps the snow out to the West over in MN,while another model shows the snow to fall from Eastern MN into my forecast area...So this would lead one to think 1 to 2 inches of snow looks likely some where in my forecast area....Will try to nail to this down later with another model run or so....the 06z run may not give much more light..Will see what the 12z runs shows...Nevertheless this will not be a big deal for the area..

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY....

Weather should be rather peaceful.....Some what cooler air will spill back into the area behind the departing shortwave....This will cause temps to fall to around the lower single digits for Mon night....WAA kicks back in on Tuesday..so temps are forecasted to be in the lower to middle 20s once again...Good time to get out and enjoy all the snow as really temps won't be that cold......

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.....

First off my confidence level is low on this time frame,as models have been and still are all over the place with what may be a major snowstorm for the forecast area....

So with the model data I have in front of me this morning this now what is forecasted....First off the bat lets look at the ECMWF model......

00z run shows a 1003 MBS low pressure getting it's act going over AZ on Wednesday....This low is forecasted to move into Southern OK/Northern TX...Then the low is forecasted to lift North/Northeast into SW MO and deepen to around 996 MBS...Then it is forecasted to lift Northeast to around the NE IL area.....If this track does turn out parts of my FA could end up with a good amount of snow...Looks like this will be another win jammer of a system....Now with that all said and done...ECMWF has been changing this track on just about all it's runs....So this system could end up being more North by time we get to Tuesday....That day will be the make it or break it day.....

Second out of the gate is the GFS model....

This model keep the storm system well to our South on it's 00z run...If that plays out we won't have to worry about this system effecting the forecast area.....However looking back at GFS 12z run this model did have the system more North,almost the same track as ECWMF....The latest 06z run GFS has this system still way South....

So as you can see this system is playing havoc on the models....There has been no consistency what so ever....Though ECMWF has showing more than GFS....So with this in mind and this model leading the way so far this winter will lean towards it....So best areas to see significant snowfall amounts would be Eastern MN and Western WI.for the eve of Dec 24 and Christmas morning...That is if ECWMF pans outs....Way to early to even think about nailing down snowfall amounts...The only reason I brought it up is this is the biggest holiday travel time...So people will want to keep up with the latest on this possible major winter storm that may effect my forecast area of WI....

Nice and cold this morning

Ok -12.2 degrees outside...Coldest temp of the 09./10 winter so far....Someone tell me when spring is here,going to sleep until then!....