Monday, November 19, 2012
The forecast for Western/Northwestern WI
Forecast problems, really none through Thanksgiving Day….Temps take a big dive on Black Friday… Next week snow? We shall find out as we hash it all out. More on this later….
***SHORT/MIDDLE TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)***
Now short-wave moving through the FA, still may see a few light showers though highly unlikely, and will leave wording out of forecast.…Looking at the visible satellite imagery we see clearing skies in Eastern MN this is working its way towards the FA…..So as we head through the day skies should start to slowly clear off…1025 MB high pressure will then take over our weather right through Thanksgiving Day…..The high will slip off to our South/Southeast..This will bring us a return flow….This bring in even warmer air by Wednesday…Looking at the record high for that day here in Rice Lake we see its 69 degrees that was set back in 1990… That looks to be safe as we are forecasting temps in the middle 50s….Big changes coming Thanksgiving evening/night…. We shall see a 1003 MB low pressure system get going Southwestern MT…This is pegged to move in to Northwestern SD/Southwestern ND, then it should move into Northwestern MN by Thursday morning before pushing off into Canada…..This is forecasted to drag a sharp cold front into the area by Thanksgiving afternoon/ early evening…Thanksgiving night look for winds to pickup out of the West/Northwest….With temps falling into the lower 30s…..Black Friday looks to be windy and cold with highs in the middle 30s then we should see them fall in the afternoon…..The upcoming weekend looks colder than what we have seen over the last few days, highs slightly below normal…..We still may have to trim the temps evening more that what we are forecasting….Will worry about that on Wednesday….
***YOUR SHORT/MIDDLE TERM FORECAST***
TODAY… Cloudy to partly cloudy early with some clearing towards this evening. Highs 53 to 54. South/ Southeast winds 5 to 10 MPH
TONIGHT…Partly cloudy to clear skies, lows either side of 30.Winds becoming North/Northwest 5 to 10 MPH
TUESDAY…Mostly sunny. Highs 48 to 52. Winds North/Northwest 5 to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT…Mostly clear, lows 26 to 29.
WEDNESDAY….Sunny, warm highs 54 to 56
WEDNESDAY NIGHT…Partly cloudy, lows around 40
THANKSGIVING DAY…Mostly sunny with some increasing clouds in the afternoon, highs 54 to 55
THURSDAY NIGHT…Partly cloudy, lows around 30s
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY… Partly cloudy with highs in the 30s while lows hang out in the lower to middle 20s.
***LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION MONDAY THE 26TH THROUGH DEC 5***
We start this period on the dry side which is no surprise there….On the 28th we are watching a messy storm system trying to take shape over the four corners area, we will see a warm front starting to push up into Southern MN/WI giving that area all rain after some light morning snow… Up here in our FA we will see over running so look for mainly all snow with a mixture in our Southern areas. The 29th is were all the problem rear their ugly heads….One model takes the storm system way South which would keep the upper Midwest in all snow, while another model takes the storm system through Southern MN towards Northeastern WI, which would keep Southern MN and Central and Southern WI all rain…Points North of a line from the Twin Cities MN to Eau Claire WI will see all snow….the 30th through Dec 5th looks to be dry…Here we go again on model shows a big warm up while another model keeps us in the cold air….Been a lot flip flopping going…So Am not going to worry about the possible snowstorm/Am not going to worry about if temps remain cold or warm up, until I see models come closer in agreement.