Really not much change is needed in the ongoing forecast
below....Forecast concerns, Temps, and precipitation chances this weekend and
type....Will try to hash this all out.....
***CURRENT CONDITIONS***
Temps have made a nice recovery...Temps now in the middle
30s across the FA with mostly sunny skies....Still a few high clouds around,but
those will be thinning....Winds are light out of the Southeast...
***SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION***
Two concerns we have in the short term...1 how high to run
with temps...2 precip and what types.
First out of the gates will be the temps.....High pressure
system will slowly being pushing off to the East...Last night temps dropped like
a rock to a low of 14....Northwest flow will slowly be giving way to a
Southwesterly flow tomorrow....Three main players that will make temps a pain in
the butt..1 The deep snow pack throughout the upper Midwest....Though a few
pockets of snow free areas do reside over Southwestern MN....Then basically snow
free in NE/KS....2....Cloud cover will also play havoc on the temps....3 Models
not picking up on the snow pack, which is leading to higher temps forecasted by
them......Clouds that we currently have should be thinning out today.....This
will allow for temps to warm into the 40s today...However if clouds hang around
longer than forecast look for temps upper 30s to lower 40s versus lower to
middle 40s....So today temps are rather easy to forecast.....Tomorrow is another
whole new book....
With some snow melt likely today, will there be enough to
form fog tonight, if so how thick will it be....Profiles don't show fog
formation, however again models have really no clue how deep the snow pack
is....If tomorrow turns out to more sun than clouds temps will shoot towards
normal or a few degrees warmer...ATTM I refuse to forecast temps in the lower
50s....For all the said reasons above...Either way tomorrow will be warmer than
Saturday...Friday night the shortwave will begin to effect the FA...Moisture
will flow into the area, this lead to an increasing chances of freezing rain
this should last through the early morning hours on Saturday before the all rain
is forecast.....Temps on Saturday will for sure be held down to the lower 40s
with clouds and rain around, right now profile reading do show all rain on
Saturday..Could be a few thunderstorms working their way into the area during
the afternoon and evening hours.....Saturday night we will see the rain mix and
change over to all snow as a cold front blasts through the area...Best moisture
and forcing is off to the East....Still may be able to get a fast 1/2 to an 1 of
snow...Winds will be on the increase like wise...10 to 20 MPH...Sunday will be
cold with highs falling through the day as they head for a low in the teens once
again, and winds 10 to 20 MPH with gust reaching up towards 30 MPH....Monday
still could see a a few light snow showers around.....Monday night lows fall
back into the teens after only reaching upper 20s to lower 30s for
highs....Temps slow to warm to the lower 40s by Wednesday....
To sum it up...Short warm up, followed by more winter
feeling airmas.....No spring big long lasting warm ups through this time
frame.....
***LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION APRIL 4TH THROUGH APRIL
14th***
Next chance of snow looks to come in around the 4th this
looks to be a light event...April 5th/6th we see a stronger system pushing into
the area...This could end up being an all rain event for the FA...We will have
systems lineup one right after another through Tuesday the 9th could see more
rain than snow, however we will have to watch to see how the profiles really
setup and where they setup along with the track of each system...If they move
more South we could be dealing will rain/snow events...The 10th looks really
interesting....A system move into Southeastern WI, this will drag down more cold
air....This will chance the rain over to snow in the early morning hours....Next
chance of snow comes in about the 13th....Looks like more of a winter pattern
setting up than spring.....Temps will avg slightly to way below normal through
this time frame....
To sum this time frame up...
Colder than avg with above normal precip....More of a
winter pattern than a spring pattern.....Winter 2012/2013 lives
on....
If the CFS model is right we should start to see spring
take over towards the latter part on mid April through the end of the
month.....
