Forecast still remains a tricky one for this upcoming weekend.....However starting to come together...Details below after we talk about today through Friday...
This morning SFC OBS we see temps in the single digits up North Ashland is reporting a temp of +6° middle to lower teens are found elsewhere's in the Northern part of the FA....Lower to middle 20s are to be had in my Central and Southern FA....While SFC OBS are not indicating any precip radar is showing a few areas of light FRZG RA / sleet,with some light snow across Southwestern Barron County,along with parts of Dunn County a small area of mixed precip ready to move out of Northwestern part of ST.Croix County...Mixed precip is moving Northwest...Looking upstream ATTM I do see much of any thing else....However that may be changing as we head through the day....
***TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT***
High pressure centered over Just North of MI in Canada will keep a dry flow going for my Northern areas,So should just see mainly CLDY skies up in them areas....Rest of my FA remains under some what of a moist Southerly flow with a low pressure system well to our South...Have decided to keep a chance of light mix precip going for my Central and Southern areas today and tonight..Highs today should be in the upper 20s to the lower 30s Lows tonight should fall back into the middle teens to lower 20s.....
***FRIDAY***
Not really much to talk about...Will keep clouds locked in place for the most part...Could see some breaks in the clouds in my Northern FA...Highs in the lower 30s appears to work just fine....
***FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY***
This time frame is proving to be a tricky one...Things have changed once again for my FA.....1 problem is timing and placement of the storm system....Models have trended to slow this thing down...ECMWF has this system more Northwest than last night...So lets talk about the ECMWF model....We see a 984 MB low pressure over Northeast CO...This low is FCSTD to lift North/Northeast towards Southern ND by Sat night/Sunday...From there the low is FCSTD to move into Far Northern WI...This track would keep my FA in the warm sector until about Sunday late afternoon...So here is were the forecast gets tricky...Thermal profiles still showing a FRZG RA for Fri night into early Sat morning....Then temps aloft warm enough to produce just rain in the afternoon....SFC temps climb to the middle 30s also,so any FRZG RA that does fall should melt off rather quickly Sat....Sat night with temps still warm at the SFC and aloft Am going to keep rain ongoing and remove the FRZG RA from the forecast....On Sunday still going to keep old fashion rain going,then I will slowly change it to a mix of rain and snow in the afternoon,seems to be the best way to play this one out for now as thermal profiles start to cool aloft...SFC temps will still be in the middle 30s....Sunday night will change rain/rain snow mixture to all snow ...Will keep that going through Monday....ATTM does not appear to be any thing to big..Still may see some accumulations....
OK lets talk about the GFS model....GFS keep the storm system more to the South....Track the low from Eastern CO into Southern NE then up into Northern IA/Southern MN then through the Central to Northeastern WI....With this track one would think big time snows...However thermal profiles of the GFS would suggest otherwise....For the most part I see GFS agreeing with ECMWF as far as precip goes...Just looked at the 06Z run off the GFS...Now this has better come in line with ECMWF model...Still a little South,nevertheless nothing to change my mind.....So thinking above will stand....One thing all models show is a cool down after this system pushes out of the area....Temps fall back to more normal like...Wednesday/Thursday time frame models still showing an Arctic cold front pushing into the area...So if this pans out we could be back into the deep freeze once again....
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