Wednesday, September 14, 2011

The Forecast for Western & Northwestern WI...

Main story over the next 24 hours will be the very cold temps…..The NWS has issued a freeze warning for most of my FA…Frost advisory has also been issued by the NWS for the follow Counties….Chippewa, Eau Claire, Pepin, and Rusk……This could be the end of the growing season for much of the FA, you may want to cover up any plants you may wish to save, better yet bring them indoors….


A slow warning trend will commence Starting Friday and hold through early next week…..

***CURRENT CONDITIONS***

At 1 PM…Here at the office skies are Partly cloudy winds are form the Northwest @ 8.3 MPH gusting to 18 MPH…Temp is 50..Across the area skies range from mostly sunny to partly cloudy…Temps range from the upper 40s to lower 50s… Winds Northwest from 8 to 12 MPH with gusts ranging from 17 to 21 MPH…

***SHORT TERM/MIDDLE TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION***

Secondary cold front that plowed through the FA is now cutting the Stat of MI in half and extends through IL, Northern part of MO…..A large 1034 MB high pressure is building into the FA from Canada…Winds today will still be rather gust as pressure gradient between the High off to our Northwest and a low pressure off to our Northeast still remain rather tight… The high pressure system is forecasted to move Southeast/east through today and should be centered over Western MN by 06z Thursday and slowly move across the FA….This will allow for winds to become calm under clear skies this is setting up the stages for great radiation cooling…Temps are forecasted to fall into the middle 20s to around 30 tonight/early tomorrow morning…Hard freeze is appearing likely across much of my FA….With the high pressure system remaining over the FA this will set the stages for a dry Thursday and Friday, along with the weekend…. Thursday night we should see another freeze…..By 12z Friday the large high pressure system should be centered over Western MI….We should start to see a return flow slowly working into the area, meaning a slow warming trend…..Sunday the FA still under control of the high pressure system….We find a weak 1012 low pressure/trough over SD with a warm front extended South of said system, a cold front is forecasted to be in far Northwest ND……This is forecasted to slide Southeast into the Eastern ND through central SD, meantime the weak area of low pressure slips Southeast into Southwestern IA…Was some questions to rather if we should add precip into the FA for Sunday…..For now will run with a dry forecast…. Will add slight chance of precip into the forecast from Sunday night as the cold front pushes through, though still not thrilled about doing this as it appears moisture will be null….Will run with a dry forecast from Monday through Tuesday as a high pressure system build into the FA….

***YOUR SHORT/MIDDLE TERM FORECAST***

REST OF TODAY…. PC highs 50 to 55, winds NW 10 to 20 MPH.

TONIGHT…. Clear cold lows 25 to 30, winds becoming clam. Hard freeze likely….

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT…. Sunny highs 50 to 55… Lows 25 to 30…Frost likely with another freeze.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY…. Dry highs 55 to 60 on Friday 60 to 65 Sat and Sun…. Lows 35 to 40 Friday night warming to 40 to 45 Saturday night.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Slight chance of showers, maybe a thunderstorm. Lows 45 to 50.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY…. Dry highs 65 to 70 lows 45 to 50.

Confidence Level..High on temps….Medium on precip.

***LONG TERM FORECAST DISUSSION WED 21ST THROUGH FRIDAY 30TH.

The only chance of rain if this whole forecast cycle come in for the 21, and that is meeker…. The rest of the cycle is forecasted to be dry….Overall temps should be close to normal with precip below normal…

Confidence levels in both temps and precip are very low….So low we won’t issue a forecast for this time frame…..