Really not much change is needed in the ongoing forecast below....Forecast concerns, Temps, and precipitation chances this weekend and type....Will try to hash this all out.....

 

***CURRENT CONDITIONS***

 

Temps have made a nice recovery...Temps now in the middle 30s across the FA with mostly sunny skies....Still a few high clouds around,but those will be thinning....Winds are light out of the Southeast...

 

***SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION***

 

Two concerns we have in the short term...1 how high to run with temps...2 precip and what types.

First out of the gates will be the temps.....High pressure system will slowly being pushing off to the East...Last night temps dropped like a rock to a low of 14....Northwest flow will slowly be giving way to a Southwesterly flow tomorrow....Three main players that will make temps a pain in the butt..1 The deep snow pack throughout the upper Midwest....Though a few pockets of snow free areas do reside over Southwestern MN....Then basically snow free in NE/KS....2....Cloud cover will also play havoc on the temps....3 Models not picking up on the snow pack, which is leading to higher temps forecasted by them......Clouds that we currently have should be thinning out today.....This will allow for temps to warm into the 40s today...However if clouds hang around longer than forecast look for temps upper 30s to lower 40s versus lower to middle 40s....So today temps are rather easy to forecast.....Tomorrow is another whole new book....

With some snow melt likely today, will there be enough to form fog tonight, if so how thick will it be....Profiles don't show fog formation, however again models have really no clue how deep the snow pack is....If tomorrow turns out to more sun than clouds temps will shoot towards normal or a few degrees warmer...ATTM I refuse to forecast temps in the lower 50s....For all the said reasons above...Either way tomorrow will be warmer than Saturday...Friday night the shortwave will begin to effect the FA...Moisture will flow into the area, this lead to an increasing chances of freezing rain this should last through the early morning hours on Saturday before the all rain is forecast.....Temps on Saturday will for sure be held down to the lower 40s with clouds and rain around, right now profile reading do show all rain on Saturday..Could be a few thunderstorms working their way into the area during the afternoon and evening hours.....Saturday night we will see the rain mix and change over to all snow as a cold front blasts through the area...Best moisture and forcing is off to the East....Still may be able to get a fast 1/2 to an 1 of snow...Winds will be on the increase like wise...10 to 20 MPH...Sunday will be cold with highs falling through the day as they head for a low in the teens once again, and winds 10 to 20 MPH with gust reaching up towards 30 MPH....Monday still could see a a few light snow showers around.....Monday night lows fall back into the teens after only reaching upper 20s to lower 30s for highs....Temps slow to warm to the lower 40s by Wednesday....

To sum it up...Short warm up, followed by more winter feeling airmas.....No spring big long lasting warm ups through this time frame.....

 

***LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION APRIL 4TH THROUGH APRIL 14th***

 

Next chance of snow looks to come in around the 4th this looks to be a light event...April 5th/6th we see a stronger system pushing into the area...This could end up being an all rain event for the FA...We will have systems lineup one right after another through Tuesday the 9th could see more rain than snow, however we will have to watch to see how the profiles really setup and where they setup along with the track of each system...If they move more South we could be dealing will rain/snow events...The 10th looks really interesting....A system move into Southeastern WI, this will drag down more cold air....This will chance the rain over to snow in the early morning hours....Next chance of snow comes in about the 13th....Looks like more of a winter pattern setting up than spring.....Temps will avg slightly to way below normal through this time frame....

To sum this time frame up...

Colder than avg with above normal precip....More of a winter pattern than a spring pattern.....Winter 2012/2013 lives on....

If the CFS model is right we should start to see spring take over towards the latter part on mid April through the end of the month.....

Forecast below this post stands as is...See no reason to change it....
No spring yet! Sure temps will warm but as you can see on the 6-10 day outlook and on the 8 to 14 day outlook we will remain below normal....I still think we will see at least 2 more snow events with > than 4 inches of snow...Putting my neck on the chopping block on this one, I still think we will see 4 more snow events with > than 1 inch of snow..So to recap, yes we will see wamrmer temps, yes we will see some melting....No the warmer temps won't last long, yes we will stay below normal for this time of year...Enjoy spring 2013! wait I'm mean the lasting winter of 2012/2013! Spring won't be here until late April or early May.....No wishcasting here! Just the hard cold facts....

Main story in the weather dept, this week is dry conditions and a slow warming trend.....Could see temps go slightly above normal by weeks end, however temps will avg below normal for this time of year....No big warm-ups as far as one can see.Thanks to the deep snow pack throughout much of the midwest and along with areas to our South/Southeast again...In fact could be dealing with a snow event come around the 3/4 of April....

***CURRENT CONDITIONS***

At 10 AM skies range from sunny to mostly cloudy...Temps range from to middle to upper 20s....Winds are out of the North from 6 to 10 MPH.....

***FORECAST DISCUSSION(THIS WHOLE WEEK)

The jetstream remains well to our South and West...Currently The jet is diving out of Canada into the Western parts of ND, and SD Down into Northern TX, then heads back to the Northeast through Northern GA into NC.This has kept us in a Northwesterly flow for sometime...This is forecasted to flatten out some tomorrow, but will still be setup way to our South....Looking at the Satellite imagery we see clouds moving from the East/Northeast towards the West/Southwest, as the weather pattern remains in its blocky state of mind....Drier air as worked into our FA so do think the clouds will thin as the day goes along, Still should be enough clouds(partly cloudy) around to keep temps held down in the lower 30s for today...Low level moisture will aid in more clouds for tonight...Temps tonight should fall into the teens.....Tomorrow under more sun filled skies temps will warm a degree or two...Will fall back into the teens tomorrow night...Story here is we warm a degree or two each passing day this week in highs and lows...By Saturday we should hit the upper 30s to near 40, which is still well below normal by 7 degrees...Same hold true for Sunday...This March will go down as colder than normal and wetter than normal for the area....Looking for temps in the 50s one will have to head way into IA!

To sum this week up up.....Dry conditions with a very slow warming trend into the upcoming weekend.

Confidence level is high.

***FORECAST DISCUSSION(APRIL 1ST THROUGH APRIL 10TH)

Looks like April will keep seeing below normal temps through this time frame, with another shot at rain mixing and changing over to all snow on the 3/4th...Low pressure is forecasted to move Northeast from Central KS into Southeastern IA then into Southeastern WI...This low should draw up enough warm air to produce showers and maybe a thunderstorm or two to start with, cold air get sucked into this system rather fast...This will lead to rain mixing with and changing over to all snow for the area....After this system passes through look for drier conditions, before our next system moves into the area for the 9th/10th. Should see a rain/snow mix with this system...

Confidence level is mod to high.

***LOOKING INTO ALL OF APRIL***

This will be the month of transition....We should see temps running below normal right through the middle part of the month....Then a ray of hope....Temps looks to warm to above normal...Does appear to look like the real spring will begin to take over....However with that said this is so far out there in time, anything can happen....

Confidence level this far out is very low.

Are you ready for more snow? Well if not you best better be…..We got two more clipper systems to did with through early Saturday, then what could be a winter storms for late Sunday night through early Tuesday morning….More on this in a little…..

***CURRENT CONDITIONS***

At Noon skies across the FA are Sunny, some high clouds still noted on the sat imagery….Temps for the most part are in the middle to upper 20s…..Winds have decreased and are around 5 MPH….However over in Ladysmith winds are still gusty…Gusts up to 17 MPH…Their winds should be slacking off in an hour or so….

***FORECAST DISCUSSION TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY***

 

SFC map shows a 1033 MB high pressure from just South of Hudson Bay Canada extending down into the Northern Plains per NAM…GFS and EC Shows a weaker high pressure system….Nevertheless that won’t have much impact on the weather for today…Low pressure that has brought us snow showers throughout the day yesterday has now cleared the area to our East….For today we should see mostly to sunny to skies some high clouds at this hour should dissipate…This will be short-lived as looking at the WV imagery we see out next weak system pushing into MT/ND….We should see clouds on the increase tonight…Light snow is also possible at 2 AM or so….Not looking at any accumulations…..Tomorrow….We shall see cloudy skies once again with more light snow….1 inch of snow will be possible, mainly over my central and Northern areas…..Less than ½ inch over my Southern zones….Friday and Friday night this system will be moving through the area….Should see 1 to 3 inches of snow throughout my Central and Northern areas maybe as much as 4 inches is a few areas…..My Southern areas should see a wintery mix and then just a rain snow mix…We could see 1 maybe 2 inches of snow down in those areas…That will depend on how warm the upper layers remains….Saturday night and Sunday…Look for a rest period from the snow…..

***FORECAST DISCUSSION SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY***

A strong low pressure system is forecasted to move along my Southern Counties of the FA….This will do two things….1 keep the heavy band of snow over my Central and Northern areas…2 Keep my far Southern areas all rain…..However most of the FA shall see snow…..More South from Southern MN into Southwestern WI looks to be an all rain event with a little snow mixing in as the low departs the area….After that we get another little break in the actions….

What is interesting EC show a another strong storm system effecting the areas for late next week….Once again this should bring snow to my Central and Northern areas, while my Southern areas should see all rain……I’m not going to get carried away about this system this far out in time…..

Temps throughout this whole time frame will be slightly below normal…..

Here is a picture of one of the snow showers that moved through the area last evening this put down a fast 1/2" of snow, then shortly after that we had another snow shower move through.That one also put down another 1/2" of snow..Very heavy snow at times..Total snowfall from yesterday was 2 inches.

 

Last March

People are asking, "where is Spring?"
Well after last March (2012)

people got spoiled….Yes most of last march was very warm, highs in the 50s to 60s across much of the area, with no snow to speak of.Last March there was only 2 snow days and that was on the 2^nd and 3^rd  which brought us 2.50” of snow….So far this March we have had  5 snow days…the 4^th/5^th 8^th 10^th 11^th…. So far this March we have seen 20” of snow… On the average we see 10.2” of snow in March, so we are well over that…..What was interesting…Back in 2011 we were also above normal in the snowfall dept…Coming in at 14” of snow…..Back in 2010 we also had a warm March were we had temps in the 60s that broke records….Temps this March have been a tad below normal so far…..

So before all you spring weather lovers get carried away by saying spring is here, well no its not yet….Look what happen last year after a very warm March, we got snow in April, and to put even more of a damper on you, there has been a few years we had seen snow in the first part of May….In fact just back in 2011 we saw that….So spring lovers, keep it real and keep it in check! As you all know this time of year is a time for change yes we should see warm days but we still will see more snow….

Once May gets here, after the first week then you can say spring is here….The calendar says Spring starts on March 20^th however as we all know,  weather does not run on a time frame….Just like watch boxes…..You can have severe weather outside the watch box area, as we have seen many times……

Last night's/early moring snowfall reports.

Last night’s and early morning snowfall reports…..This storm system did shift a little more to the West and North….Not by much as you will see, but it was enough to bring us 5 inches of snow here at the office…

Snowfall reports in my Northern areas…

Here at the office 5 inches of snow…Barron 2 inches of snow…Cumberland 3.5 inches of snow….Rice Lake 3.5 inches..

Snowfall reports from my Central areas.

Chetek 4.3 inches of snow. Jim Falls 5.3 inches of snow…Menomonie 5 inches of snow…

Snowfall reports in my Southern areas.

Eau Claire reported 8.8 inches of snow… Colfax reported 7 inches of snow…Ellsworth 4.6 inches of snow….

Snowfall reports in my Western areas.

Clear Lake 1 inch of snow…..

***Note these reports are preliminary***