A fast forecast.Plus total snowfall map.

A power house snow storm to effect much of the 2/3s part of the CONUS with snow, Ice, Severe thunderstorms, For the local area… The main storm system it’s self will remain well South of the area, however an inverted trof will effect the area… This will be our snow maker along with WAA over riding the colder air..This will help aid in snow forming later tonight and lasting through Monday evening/night….So the snowfall map is going to be the total snowfall from this event…. Again this is not the winter storm it’s self just WAA over riding the cold air and an inverted trof… Main low passes well to our South over IL through this time frame…. Winds will become a problem on Tuesday as the low is well to the South Northeast wind could gusts as high as 25 to 30 MPH at times….Any snow that does fall will be a blowing and drifting problem also…As far as temps go not really cold lows below zero through Midweek with highs in the lower to middle teens… Models do show some warming by Saturday…. Am not going to run with 30s as of right now… Middle to upper 20s look better…. With lows this upcoming weekend warming to the middle to upper teens….No time for a long term forecast tonight…
Here is the total snowfall map...Decide to run with a rather large are of 2 to 4 inches of snow based on models though 1 to 3 was in the thinking.. This way it will cover and small surprises that could happen....Kept the 3 to 6 inches of snow im my far Southern areas per model data.... Green area is 1 to 2 inches my arrow marker decided not to work...

01/28/2011 snow pictures

Info from the NWS....

his info comes from the NWS...
SNOW & FREEZING DRIZZLE TO AFFECT WEST CNTL WI LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.




A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR WEST CNTL WI UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SNOW WILL BEGIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON & CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN 4 & 8 PM CST ACROSS THIS REGION.

ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES IS EXPECTED GENERALLY NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM RUSH CITY.TO NEW RICHMOND.TO EAU CLAIRE. THE HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS WILL BE NEAR RICE LAKE AND LADYSMITH.



THE SNOW SHOULD DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER.AS THE SNOW TAPERS OFF.FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN WEST CNTL WI. ALTHOUGH ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINOR.THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR A FINE GLAZING OF ICE IN SOME LOCATIONS.



BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS OR ICY ROADS THIS EVENING.AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.



WIZ014-015-023>028-290500-

/O.EXB.KMPX.WW.Y.0031.110128T2100Z-110129T0600Z/

POLK-BARRON-ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-CHIPPEWA-EAU CLAIRE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF.AMERY.BALSAM LAKE.RICE LAKE.

BARRON.HUDSON.NEW RICHMOND.RIVER FALLS.PRESCOTT.

MENOMONIE.BOYCEVILLE.DURAND.PEPIN.CHIPPEWA FALLS.

BLOOMER.EAU CLAIRE.ALTOONA

257 PM CST FRI JAN 28 2011



WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT.



THE NATL WEATHER SVC IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE COMBINATION OF SNOW & FREEZING DRIZZLE.WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT.



* TIMING.ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.



* MAIN IMPACT.TOTAL ACCUMULATION FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS IN BARRON.CHIPPEWA.& RUSK COUNTIES.

FREEZING DRIZZLE IS ALSO EXPECTED AFTER THE SNOW DIMINISHES.



* OTHER IMPACTS.REDUCED VISIBILITY & SLICK ROADS.



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS.



A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS & LIMITED VISIBILITIES.& USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.



&&



$$



WIZ016-290500-

/O.CON.KMPX.WW.Y.0031.000000T0000Z-110129T0600Z/

RUSK-

INCLUDING THE CITY OF.LADYSMITH

257 PM CST FRI JAN 28 2011



WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT.



A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT.



* TIMING.ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.



* MAIN IMPACT.TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES. FREEZING DRIZZLE IS ALSO EXPECTED AFTER THE SNOW DIMINISHES.



* OTHER IMPACTS.REDUCED VISIBILITY & SLICK ROADS.



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS.



A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS & LIMITED VISIBILITIES.& USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.



&&



$$

FRANKS

No short term forecasts yet.

There will not be any short term forecast yet... We have having some computer issues with a some of our programs... Radar is working fine... Our other real time data is down at this time.... We are working on this to resolve the problem..... We are sorry for this problem.... Until we can can get this fix see  Derek's blog for short term updates... Link below.... Thanks for your understanding in this matter....
http://nwwisconsinweather.blogspot.com/
For those of you in Northern WI see Tim's blog for info up in thoses areas... Link below...\
http://timsweatherblog.blogspot.com/

The forecast for Western/Northwestern WI, along with the froecasted snowfall map.

Forecast concerns…. Clipper like system pulling out of the area today brought a widespread 1 to almost 3 inches of snow through a good part of the FA…. Another system one track for tomorrow into tomorrow evening which should bring another 1 to 3 inches for most of the area… See forecasted snowfall map for where that may occur…..Temps are going to be tricky today through the weekend, before colder air flows into the area for the end of the weekend into next week and into the longer term….


***CURRENT CONDTIONS***

As of 10 AM skies are cloudy… Temps in the lower to middle 20s… Winds are light out of the North/Northwest….. Fog is being reported at many of the stations…..

***FORECAST DISCUSSION***

This morning’s charts shows a 1007 MB low pressure system centered over the Northern part of Lake Superior… With a cold front reaching Westwards along the MN/Canada border..Front then extends Northwest into Canada to a low pressure system in Northeastern British Columbia Canada…. Western CONSUS weather is being controlled be a rather large ridge of high pressure at the SFC and throughout the upper levels… Meanwhile the 982 MB low pressure is centered off the Coast of ME… A weak area of low pressure system is found over Eastern AR/Western TN, with a cold front reaching Southwest through Southern AR back into TX…..

Cold front to our North is forecasted to move into the area later tonight… Meanwhile the low over British Columbia is forecasted to move into Northern Alberta…Low is forecasted to track Southeast from there into Northwestern MN then down through Western WI then over to Southern MI/Northern IN… Will keep flurries/mist going today through tonight with areas of fog possible also.. Then bring in snow for Friday will hold onto snow for Friday night.. Then flurries for Saturday as a trough swings South/Southwest into the area…Meanwhile on Saturday a rather large 1040 MB high pressure system will build South into the area for Sunday…Sunday night/Monday’s time frame models have really back down a winter storm that was forecasted to have little effects on the areas as far as snow goes, now we see more of a trough over Western MN that will work it’s way Eastwards… However a 1008 MB low pressure is forecasted to form in the TX panhandle … This is forecasted to lift Northeast towards East Central IL and Western IN.. Meantime 1044 High pressure is forecasted to drop into MT then builds into the FA for Tuesday/Wednesday…

***LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION Thursday THE 3RD THROUGH FRIDAY THE 11TH***

Next shot of light snow brushes the are on the 3rd as an area of low pressure remains well North of the of the FA… Thinking right now is my Northeastern areas will have a better chance at light snow then the rest of the FA… Once again we see the upper level ridge take control of the Western CONUS after a brief cool down in them areas…. Out East upper level trough still holds strong.. Will bring in another shot of light snow for the 4th as a short-wave /WAA starts to kick in will hold onto the 6th as a cold front is forecasted to move Southeast into the area… Another short-wave/clipper like system moves in for the 8th .. So to recap the…. No big snow storms as far as the eye can see, just off and on light snow through this time frame… Would think by going past trends that each system could bring 1 to 3 inches of snow….Remains to be seen however the way most of this Jan has been going really see reason to argue with that…..Looking at the temps…. We start the cycle on the cold side…. We do see a nice warm up coming in for the 5th temps could be getting closer to 30 by then…. That will be short lived as more cold air moves South into the area on the 7th on the 8th /9th Models are not in really good agreement on the Arctic air… GFS slams us hard with it the other models are not as cold… GFS keeps the Arctic air in place right through the end of the forecast cycle…If GFS is right this could be the coldest air of the winter…. I’m not buying into the ATTM.. 1 to far out in time.. 2. GFS track record this has not been that good….

***YOUR FORECAST***

Rest of today…. Mostly cloudy flurries ending, highs in the 20s…Winds Northwest around 5 MPH….

Tonight… Mostly cloudy with flurries… Lows around 15, winds Northwest around 5 MPH.

Friday….Snow likely highs in the 20s….South/Southeast winds 5 to 10 MPH.

Friday Night…. Small chance of light snow/flurries… Lows upper teens to lower 20s… Winds Northwest around 5 to 10 MPH.

Saturday… A few flurries highs falling from the 20s into the teens throughout the afternoon….

Saturday Night… Mostly cloudy lows around 5….

Sunday… Mostly cloudy highs around 15…

Sunday Night…. Slight chance of light snow/flurries lows around 0

Monday…. Slight chance of light snow/flurries… Highs near 10.. Lows around -5

Tuesday through Wednesday… Partly to mostly sunny Highs around 10 Lows around -5….

***NOW FOR YOU FORECASTED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING***

Mod to Heavy snow...

Mod. to heavy snow still falling here at the office.... Looks like a good 1.75 inches since it started about 8-9 tonight...Forecast is right on track will leave it stand,forecast snowfall amounts should play out rather well also,so no chance there either.

Forecast for Western/Northwestern WI plus forecasted snowfall amounts map.

Forecast problems… Snow today through Thursday… Then again on Friday… Then temps for the weekend…No big snow storms, no big thaws, no big long lasting Arctic blasts in the short term through long term forecast as of right now...Temps will run below normals after this weekend throughout the middle to long term forecast, with near norms for precip.


***CURRENT CONDITIONS***

As of 12 PM skies are mostly cloudy, Osceola reporting mostly sunny, Confirmed by satellite…Any areas that do get some peaks of sun enjoy it cause the clouds will fill back in…

Temps are in the lower 20s… Winds light to calm… Some stations reporting some light snow/flurries….

***FORECAST DISCUSSION***

Model today have really not been in agreement past on the track of a low pressure system for tonight/Tomorrow…

All model have shifted the low more on a Westerly track ….Also noted is a huge difference in the models for the long term forecast…..Will get to that in a few… Back tracking to today through Friday……ECWMF/NAM/GFS/GEM have shifted the track of a low pressure system more Westerly… This will lead to a better chance of snow through my Northern/Eastern areas.. This would be the areas that has the best forcing and lift.. This area would have the best chance at seeing 1 to 3 inches of snow….. The rest of the FA could see a dusting to 1 or maybe two inches of snow….. For later tonight/tomorrow….

Today we will see a weak frontal boundary slid to the South this should end the flurries This afternoon…. Still will keep cloudy skies going as there is an inversion overheard along with a very weak Northwesterly flow….We may see a few breaks in here and there is the cloud cover, however any breaks that do occur shall fill back in rather fast…Looking at the Vis Satellite we see a mostly cloudy skies throughout the FA some holes in the cloud deck are noted..Looking upstream in MN more cloudy skies…. So the rule to today is run with mostly cloudy skies this will cover any breaks in the clouds verses running with partly cloudy skies…. Temps aren’t going to really go much higher than they are right now….Low pressure is forecasted to move Southeast through Eastern MN/far Western WI down toward the EAU area….Snow will spread into the FA tonight and last through early morning hrs on Thursday… See map below for forecasted snowfall amounts….

Not so sure if I agree with the temps tomorrow on the model guidance as they have temps in the upper 20s… Do to the forecasted cloud cover that remains to be seen…. Will run with temps in the lower to upper 20s across the FA warmer reading found in my Southern zones cooler temps found in my Central and Northern areas….. There are some indications of a stronger low pressure system for Friday/Friday night’s time frame…. If this does pan out there could be an area of 4 to 6 inches of snow mainly in my Northern areas… While my Southern areas see 1 to 2 inches…. Won’t worry about this as of right now, as forecasting models are having a big disagreement on this… Now what to do with temps this weekend… On Saturday some models keep the warm air going while others have temps falling…. I have decided to run with the falling temps in the afternoon….As a cold front is forecasted to push into and through the area…..So with lows forecasted to be in the middle 20s Friday night going to run with highs in the middle 20s then drop them through the day…..Only seem reasonable…. This is really not a push of Arctic air, more so a push of Polar air… So temps won’t be even close to cold as we had this past weekend….. Lows will fall to around -5 with highs in the lower teens above zero….From Sunday through Tuesday……. Also looking dry through this time frame… Though ECWMF model is showing some snow moving in…. Though I should trust this model as it has a remarkable track record this winter… Other models are not showing this with the colder air in place… So will run with dry for now… Will revisit this during the upcoming weekend……

***LONGER TERM FORECAST.FEB 3RD THROUGH FEB 11TH ***

The 3rd we start off dry, however the RH shows increasing clouds as a short-wave moves along the MN/ Canada border…With a chance of snow later in the day… As of right now looks like my Northern areas as the best chance at seeing some accumulations…. The 4th will hold on to the snow chances though it should be a light snowfall as low pressure slips South into Eastern WI/Western MI… The 4th we will see light snow/flurries come to an end throughout the FA.. We see yet another clipper like system diving South towards the FA for later Saturday night into Sunday’s time frame… Most of the dynamics should remain well North of the FA there will still be a shot of light snow.. Will hold that through early Monday the 7th Then high pressure builds into the area until the 10th.. We see a another clipper type system moving into Southern MN by then so the chance of snow enters the forecast once again.. The track of this low would but my Central and Northern areas in the best chance to see accumulating snows… While the rest of the area should see light snows…By the 11th snow pushes East of the FA… Still will keep snow alive in my Far Northern area of the Lake Superior snow belts..

As far as temps go through this whole time frame temps will average below normal .. There may be a shot of Arctic air around the 8th…. Still nothing like we went through…..

***NOW YOUR FORECAST***

Rest of today…. Mostly cloudy flurries ending, highs lower to middle 20s…Winds west around 5 MPH….

Tonight… Snow likely see map below for snowfall amounts… Lows around 15, winds South/Southwest around 5 MPH.

Thursday…. Mostly cloudy with light snow/flurries ending… Highs in the 20s… Winds Northwest around 5 PMH.

Thursday Night…. Small chance of light snow/flurries… Lows around 15.. Winds Northwest light…

Friday….Small chance of light snow highs in the 20….

Friday Night…. Small chance of light snow/flurries… Lows in the 20s….

Saturday… A few flurries highs falling from the 20s into the teens throughout the afternoon….

Saturday Night… Mostly cloudy lows around 5….

Sunday through Tuesday…. Partly cloudy with highs in the middle teens with lows around -5…. Could see more clouds from time to time also….

***FORECASTED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS***

Should be up to an inch not and inch....