Wednesday, January 26, 2011

Forecast for Western/Northwestern WI plus forecasted snowfall amounts map.

Forecast problems… Snow today through Thursday… Then again on Friday… Then temps for the weekend…No big snow storms, no big thaws, no big long lasting Arctic blasts in the short term through long term forecast as of right now...Temps will run below normals after this weekend throughout the middle to long term forecast, with near norms for precip.


As of 12 PM skies are mostly cloudy, Osceola reporting mostly sunny, Confirmed by satellite…Any areas that do get some peaks of sun enjoy it cause the clouds will fill back in…

Temps are in the lower 20s… Winds light to calm… Some stations reporting some light snow/flurries….


Model today have really not been in agreement past on the track of a low pressure system for tonight/Tomorrow…

All model have shifted the low more on a Westerly track ….Also noted is a huge difference in the models for the long term forecast…..Will get to that in a few… Back tracking to today through Friday……ECWMF/NAM/GFS/GEM have shifted the track of a low pressure system more Westerly… This will lead to a better chance of snow through my Northern/Eastern areas.. This would be the areas that has the best forcing and lift.. This area would have the best chance at seeing 1 to 3 inches of snow….. The rest of the FA could see a dusting to 1 or maybe two inches of snow….. For later tonight/tomorrow….

Today we will see a weak frontal boundary slid to the South this should end the flurries This afternoon…. Still will keep cloudy skies going as there is an inversion overheard along with a very weak Northwesterly flow….We may see a few breaks in here and there is the cloud cover, however any breaks that do occur shall fill back in rather fast…Looking at the Vis Satellite we see a mostly cloudy skies throughout the FA some holes in the cloud deck are noted..Looking upstream in MN more cloudy skies…. So the rule to today is run with mostly cloudy skies this will cover any breaks in the clouds verses running with partly cloudy skies…. Temps aren’t going to really go much higher than they are right now….Low pressure is forecasted to move Southeast through Eastern MN/far Western WI down toward the EAU area….Snow will spread into the FA tonight and last through early morning hrs on Thursday… See map below for forecasted snowfall amounts….

Not so sure if I agree with the temps tomorrow on the model guidance as they have temps in the upper 20s… Do to the forecasted cloud cover that remains to be seen…. Will run with temps in the lower to upper 20s across the FA warmer reading found in my Southern zones cooler temps found in my Central and Northern areas….. There are some indications of a stronger low pressure system for Friday/Friday night’s time frame…. If this does pan out there could be an area of 4 to 6 inches of snow mainly in my Northern areas… While my Southern areas see 1 to 2 inches…. Won’t worry about this as of right now, as forecasting models are having a big disagreement on this… Now what to do with temps this weekend… On Saturday some models keep the warm air going while others have temps falling…. I have decided to run with the falling temps in the afternoon….As a cold front is forecasted to push into and through the area…..So with lows forecasted to be in the middle 20s Friday night going to run with highs in the middle 20s then drop them through the day…..Only seem reasonable…. This is really not a push of Arctic air, more so a push of Polar air… So temps won’t be even close to cold as we had this past weekend….. Lows will fall to around -5 with highs in the lower teens above zero….From Sunday through Tuesday……. Also looking dry through this time frame… Though ECWMF model is showing some snow moving in…. Though I should trust this model as it has a remarkable track record this winter… Other models are not showing this with the colder air in place… So will run with dry for now… Will revisit this during the upcoming weekend……


The 3rd we start off dry, however the RH shows increasing clouds as a short-wave moves along the MN/ Canada border…With a chance of snow later in the day… As of right now looks like my Northern areas as the best chance at seeing some accumulations…. The 4th will hold on to the snow chances though it should be a light snowfall as low pressure slips South into Eastern WI/Western MI… The 4th we will see light snow/flurries come to an end throughout the FA.. We see yet another clipper like system diving South towards the FA for later Saturday night into Sunday’s time frame… Most of the dynamics should remain well North of the FA there will still be a shot of light snow.. Will hold that through early Monday the 7th Then high pressure builds into the area until the 10th.. We see a another clipper type system moving into Southern MN by then so the chance of snow enters the forecast once again.. The track of this low would but my Central and Northern areas in the best chance to see accumulating snows… While the rest of the area should see light snows…By the 11th snow pushes East of the FA… Still will keep snow alive in my Far Northern area of the Lake Superior snow belts..

As far as temps go through this whole time frame temps will average below normal .. There may be a shot of Arctic air around the 8th…. Still nothing like we went through…..


Rest of today…. Mostly cloudy flurries ending, highs lower to middle 20s…Winds west around 5 MPH….

Tonight… Snow likely see map below for snowfall amounts… Lows around 15, winds South/Southwest around 5 MPH.

Thursday…. Mostly cloudy with light snow/flurries ending… Highs in the 20s… Winds Northwest around 5 PMH.

Thursday Night…. Small chance of light snow/flurries… Lows around 15.. Winds Northwest light…

Friday….Small chance of light snow highs in the 20….

Friday Night…. Small chance of light snow/flurries… Lows in the 20s….

Saturday… A few flurries highs falling from the 20s into the teens throughout the afternoon….

Saturday Night… Mostly cloudy lows around 5….

Sunday through Tuesday…. Partly cloudy with highs in the middle teens with lows around -5…. Could see more clouds from time to time also….


Should be up to an inch not and inch....