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2 years ago
Sunday, November 29, 2009
Last night's/early morning snowfall pics
Thursday, November 26, 2009
The forecast for Western/Northwestern WI
The snow that could have been should have been never got going like it was forecasted...However rain and snow mixture was common across the area yesterday and last evening...Forecast headaches...There are many...First off the bat is how cold to keep temps,and how cold to drop temps come Sunday through much of next week....Then the timing of the next storm system when to bring snow showers/flurries back into the forecast and how long to run with it....Some issues do show up in the long range forecasting models,so that will play havoc in the extended forecast.....
***CURRENT CONDITIONS***
Forecast area locked under cloudy skies at this 6 am hour...Temps are in the upper 20s to lower 30s...Winds still remain rather strong....anywhere from 10 to 15 MPH with gusts up to around 16 to 18 MPH....Windchills running from 19 to 26,so a blustery morning out there...Satellite imagery showing some breaks in the clouds out over Western MN ..Looking at MN SFC OBS they are matching rather well with the cloud breaks....Winds over there are also rather strong/gusty...Leads me to think winds will remain up for a few hours if not most of today....
***SFC ANALYSIS***
Cold front that blasted through the area early yesterday is now past MI down to far Northern LA....Weak area of low pressure still remains over Lake MI....This has kept the CAA going through out the night...Cloud cover and winds kept temps in check during the overnight hrs...1022 MB high pressure is located over far Northern ND....Our next weather maker is now coming on shore in BC Canada....Skies should slowly start to become partly cloudy around noon today as weak high pressure builds into the area....Winds should also slacken off as we head through this day..This is setting up the FA for a very cold night.....Meantime a warm front will start to move into ND/SD by 00z Friday.By 06Z said front should be into the Eastern areas of ND/SD...How my forecast areas will not see any WAA kick in until late Friday afternoon or as late as Friday night.....By Saturday 12z we find 1021 MB high pressure to our Southeast over the TN Valley...Weak area of low pressure is forecasted to be on the Western part of MN doorstep...This has me thinking I will keep Saturday clear to partly sunny/cloudy..Will have to increase clouds Saturday night....Low then pulls into Northeastern WI ..As it does this should ensure the FA a cloudy day with snow showers/flurries around...Does not look like a big deal ATTM...Will watch it though if this low was to track a tad more South it would bring the better dynamics with it and could lead to an inch or so of snow to the FA,right now best areas for that will be over my far Northern parts of the FA....Arctic high pressure builds into the forecast area through next Wed....By Wed highs may not get out of the 20s....With lows in the teens.....
***MID/ UPPER LEVEL DISCUSSION***
Looking at the 500 MB charts this morning....Upper level low is over Southern WI/Northern MN...This has setup the Forecast areas under a N/NW flow...CAA well under way...Later today upper level low moves into SW/MI/NE IN.....Jet does increase to around 50 to around 60 KTS,this will insure the CAA to keep a coming....Meanwhile a ridge building out to our Southwest,will for the most part remain South of the area,however this will allow the upper level flow to flatten out into more of a Westerly flow on Sat...This will allow temps to warm a little..We find another upper level low digging into Western CA..This will become our next problem for Wednesday night into Thursday's time frame...More on this later....So overall the colder weather pattern will remain in place,some warmer temps for this weekend,then CAA really takes hold of the FA for next week....
***FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN AREAS***
TODAY....Will run with mostly cloudy skies,then becoming PC towards evening...Highs today 30 to 33 with Northwest winds 10 to 15 MPH with higher gusts....Tonight PC skies,should become clear with lows in the lower 20s with Northwest winds becoming light to calm....Saturday....Partly to mostly sunny with highs in the upper 30s to around 40...Lows Sat night fall into the lower 20s...With a slight chance of snow.....Sunday cloudy with periods of light snow...1/4 to 1/2 inch possible...Highs in the lower 30s....Will keep snow alive for Sun night...Lows in the upper teens....Could see another 1/4 to 1/2 inch of snow,Mainly over far northern areas towards Lake Superior...
Monday through Wed....Slight chance of snow early Monday and again on Wed....Highs through this time frame lower 30s to upper 20s by Wed, with lows in the middle to upper teens...
***FORECAST FOR THE CENTRAL AREAS***
Today skies becoming partly cloudy highs in the middle 30s...Winds Northwest around 10 MPH with higher gust this morning...Tonight partly cloudy becoming clear lows in the lower 20s..Northwest winds become light them calm...Saturday....Partly sunny/partly cloudy highs in the lower to middle 40s winds light out of the W/NW....Sat night...Increasing clouds lows in the lower to middle 20s...Sun..slight chance of snow showers/flurries..Highs in the lower to middle 30s..Sun night...Will keep a slight chance of snow going lows in the lower 20s....
Monday through Wed.....Partly cloudy to mostly sunny highs start of in the middle 30s and then drop into the upper 20s by Wed..Lows in the in the middle to upper teens.....
***FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS***
Today becoming partly cloudy with highs in the middle 30s,With Northwest winds around 10 MPH with higher gusts mainly this morning...Tonight Partly cloudy then becoming clear winds light then becoming calm...Lows in the lower 20s...Sat...Partly to mostly sunny skies highs in the middle 40s..Sat night lows fall into the upper 20s under increasing clouds....Sunday....Small chance of snow showers/flurries..Highs in the middle to upper 30s...Low Sun night in the middle 20s with a small chance at some snow showers and flurries....Monday through Wed.....Partly to mostly sunny skies...Highs start off in the middle 30s then fall to the lower 30s by Wed...Meantime lows in the upper teens to lower 20s....
***EXTENDED FORECAST ***
Here is where the fun begins once again....Snow storm or no snow storm later next week? as some forecasters have been hinting at well lets see if I can answer this one....
First off we will look at good old reliable forecasting model...ECWMF.....Looking at the 00z run...On Wed we see a 994 MB low pressure over far Northwestern ND this low is forecasted to move along the USA.Canada border and weakens as it does...Most of the energy would be focused to our North..leaving the FA with some light snows...Heights through out all levels would be cold enough for all snow.....Ok now lets look at the GFS models...To be fair will run with 00z run like I did with the ECWMF..
GFS has a 992 MB low pressure over Northern ND on Wed....Low then fills in by Thursday over Lake Superior.So lights snow would be possible for the FA,however I don't agree with what this model is showing..With a 993 MB low forming over KY on Thursday..GFS races this almost do North to just East of MI and deepen the low to around 982 MBS...All this would do is bring in windy conditions to my Central and Eastern parts of the FA..On it's 06z Run this model shows more of the FA to have more winds...So with that said,as of right now I really see no big snow storms in the forecast from Dec 1 through Dec 6th.....Will stick by ECWMF model with and toss GFS and other models out the window for now....One thing that both models seem to agree on is the cold air over the my FA...So to sum this extended forecast up...No big snow storm are forecasted as of right now...Temps do look to remain cold through this time period....
***CURRENT CONDITIONS***
Forecast area locked under cloudy skies at this 6 am hour...Temps are in the upper 20s to lower 30s...Winds still remain rather strong....anywhere from 10 to 15 MPH with gusts up to around 16 to 18 MPH....Windchills running from 19 to 26,so a blustery morning out there...Satellite imagery showing some breaks in the clouds out over Western MN ..Looking at MN SFC OBS they are matching rather well with the cloud breaks....Winds over there are also rather strong/gusty...Leads me to think winds will remain up for a few hours if not most of today....
***SFC ANALYSIS***
Cold front that blasted through the area early yesterday is now past MI down to far Northern LA....Weak area of low pressure still remains over Lake MI....This has kept the CAA going through out the night...Cloud cover and winds kept temps in check during the overnight hrs...1022 MB high pressure is located over far Northern ND....Our next weather maker is now coming on shore in BC Canada....Skies should slowly start to become partly cloudy around noon today as weak high pressure builds into the area....Winds should also slacken off as we head through this day..This is setting up the FA for a very cold night.....Meantime a warm front will start to move into ND/SD by 00z Friday.By 06Z said front should be into the Eastern areas of ND/SD...How my forecast areas will not see any WAA kick in until late Friday afternoon or as late as Friday night.....By Saturday 12z we find 1021 MB high pressure to our Southeast over the TN Valley...Weak area of low pressure is forecasted to be on the Western part of MN doorstep...This has me thinking I will keep Saturday clear to partly sunny/cloudy..Will have to increase clouds Saturday night....Low then pulls into Northeastern WI ..As it does this should ensure the FA a cloudy day with snow showers/flurries around...Does not look like a big deal ATTM...Will watch it though if this low was to track a tad more South it would bring the better dynamics with it and could lead to an inch or so of snow to the FA,right now best areas for that will be over my far Northern parts of the FA....Arctic high pressure builds into the forecast area through next Wed....By Wed highs may not get out of the 20s....With lows in the teens.....
***MID/ UPPER LEVEL DISCUSSION***
Looking at the 500 MB charts this morning....Upper level low is over Southern WI/Northern MN...This has setup the Forecast areas under a N/NW flow...CAA well under way...Later today upper level low moves into SW/MI/NE IN.....Jet does increase to around 50 to around 60 KTS,this will insure the CAA to keep a coming....Meanwhile a ridge building out to our Southwest,will for the most part remain South of the area,however this will allow the upper level flow to flatten out into more of a Westerly flow on Sat...This will allow temps to warm a little..We find another upper level low digging into Western CA..This will become our next problem for Wednesday night into Thursday's time frame...More on this later....So overall the colder weather pattern will remain in place,some warmer temps for this weekend,then CAA really takes hold of the FA for next week....
***FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN AREAS***
TODAY....Will run with mostly cloudy skies,then becoming PC towards evening...Highs today 30 to 33 with Northwest winds 10 to 15 MPH with higher gusts....Tonight PC skies,should become clear with lows in the lower 20s with Northwest winds becoming light to calm....Saturday....Partly to mostly sunny with highs in the upper 30s to around 40...Lows Sat night fall into the lower 20s...With a slight chance of snow.....Sunday cloudy with periods of light snow...1/4 to 1/2 inch possible...Highs in the lower 30s....Will keep snow alive for Sun night...Lows in the upper teens....Could see another 1/4 to 1/2 inch of snow,Mainly over far northern areas towards Lake Superior...
Monday through Wed....Slight chance of snow early Monday and again on Wed....Highs through this time frame lower 30s to upper 20s by Wed, with lows in the middle to upper teens...
***FORECAST FOR THE CENTRAL AREAS***
Today skies becoming partly cloudy highs in the middle 30s...Winds Northwest around 10 MPH with higher gust this morning...Tonight partly cloudy becoming clear lows in the lower 20s..Northwest winds become light them calm...Saturday....Partly sunny/partly cloudy highs in the lower to middle 40s winds light out of the W/NW....Sat night...Increasing clouds lows in the lower to middle 20s...Sun..slight chance of snow showers/flurries..Highs in the lower to middle 30s..Sun night...Will keep a slight chance of snow going lows in the lower 20s....
Monday through Wed.....Partly cloudy to mostly sunny highs start of in the middle 30s and then drop into the upper 20s by Wed..Lows in the in the middle to upper teens.....
***FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS***
Today becoming partly cloudy with highs in the middle 30s,With Northwest winds around 10 MPH with higher gusts mainly this morning...Tonight Partly cloudy then becoming clear winds light then becoming calm...Lows in the lower 20s...Sat...Partly to mostly sunny skies highs in the middle 40s..Sat night lows fall into the upper 20s under increasing clouds....Sunday....Small chance of snow showers/flurries..Highs in the middle to upper 30s...Low Sun night in the middle 20s with a small chance at some snow showers and flurries....Monday through Wed.....Partly to mostly sunny skies...Highs start off in the middle 30s then fall to the lower 30s by Wed...Meantime lows in the upper teens to lower 20s....
***EXTENDED FORECAST ***
Here is where the fun begins once again....Snow storm or no snow storm later next week? as some forecasters have been hinting at well lets see if I can answer this one....
First off we will look at good old reliable forecasting model...ECWMF.....Looking at the 00z run...On Wed we see a 994 MB low pressure over far Northwestern ND this low is forecasted to move along the USA.Canada border and weakens as it does...Most of the energy would be focused to our North..leaving the FA with some light snows...Heights through out all levels would be cold enough for all snow.....Ok now lets look at the GFS models...To be fair will run with 00z run like I did with the ECWMF..
GFS has a 992 MB low pressure over Northern ND on Wed....Low then fills in by Thursday over Lake Superior.So lights snow would be possible for the FA,however I don't agree with what this model is showing..With a 993 MB low forming over KY on Thursday..GFS races this almost do North to just East of MI and deepen the low to around 982 MBS...All this would do is bring in windy conditions to my Central and Eastern parts of the FA..On it's 06z Run this model shows more of the FA to have more winds...So with that said,as of right now I really see no big snow storms in the forecast from Dec 1 through Dec 6th.....Will stick by ECWMF model with and toss GFS and other models out the window for now....One thing that both models seem to agree on is the cold air over the my FA...So to sum this extended forecast up...No big snow storm are forecasted as of right now...Temps do look to remain cold through this time period....
Tuesday, November 24, 2009
Snow still looks likely
Snow/sleet/rain still looks likely for Wednesday afternoon chaning to all snow Wednesday night.....Not good timing on this system as there will be many people on the road ways heading to family and friends for Thanksgiving.....If one plans on traveling keep up on the latest weather forecasts for this time frame....
12z Tuesday 1000 MB low is forecasted to be over far Northeast KS/Northwestern MO/Southern IA by 18z today said low should be in about the same spot...By 00Z Wed...Low is forecasted to be on the IA/MO border..Low takes a turn darn near do North by 06z Wed...To far Eastern IA/Northwestern part of IL/far Southwestern WI..By 12z Wed said low should be located around the Appleton area of Eastern WI by 00z Thur said low should be into far Northwestern MI...The track of this storm system will allow for colder temps to work into the area through out the day on Wed at all levels....Rain/sleet/snow will change over to all snow sometime Wed afternoon for the FA..Right now looks like the best areas to see 1 to 2 inches of snow would be in my Central areas,while in my Southern areas could see 2 to 4 inches of snow,while my Northern areas see a dusting or so....This is still up in the air any shift in the storm track would chance the forecasted snowfall amounts....Also problems lay with the timing of the change over to all snow....So forecasted amount are nearly a guess on my part right now,with the info I have from the latest computer runs....Will update this tonight after work and go into more details if needed......
12z Tuesday 1000 MB low is forecasted to be over far Northeast KS/Northwestern MO/Southern IA by 18z today said low should be in about the same spot...By 00Z Wed...Low is forecasted to be on the IA/MO border..Low takes a turn darn near do North by 06z Wed...To far Eastern IA/Northwestern part of IL/far Southwestern WI..By 12z Wed said low should be located around the Appleton area of Eastern WI by 00z Thur said low should be into far Northwestern MI...The track of this storm system will allow for colder temps to work into the area through out the day on Wed at all levels....Rain/sleet/snow will change over to all snow sometime Wed afternoon for the FA..Right now looks like the best areas to see 1 to 2 inches of snow would be in my Central areas,while in my Southern areas could see 2 to 4 inches of snow,while my Northern areas see a dusting or so....This is still up in the air any shift in the storm track would chance the forecasted snowfall amounts....Also problems lay with the timing of the change over to all snow....So forecasted amount are nearly a guess on my part right now,with the info I have from the latest computer runs....Will update this tonight after work and go into more details if needed......
Saturday, November 21, 2009
The forecast for Western/Northwestern WI
Not much needed to be changed in ongoing forecast....Main problem still remains in the extended forecast cycle....As long range forecasting models still not coming to any agreement on placement of storm systems,or the strength of them....Short and middle term forecast still on track so won't touch it to much....Fog did become a problem in my Central and Southern areas..That should burn off between 9 AM and 10 AM this morning.....
***CURRENT CONDITIONS***
Fog is the main issue this early morning....Some of the vis reported have been less that 1/4 mile from Ladysmith down to Eau Claire...Some of the fog has been freezing on bridge deck,overpasses along with lesser traveled secondary back roads......Temps this morning are hanging in the upper 20s to lower 30s...Warmest temps found out in New Richmond...32° while the coldest temps up in Superior with 25° being reported......
***SFC ANALYSIS***
1022 MB high pressure is found over Northeast IL....Meanwhile a cold front was in Western MT reaching down into Northwest part of UT then back into Central CA...1000 MB low pressure is seeing over ID and another one found over Southwestern NV...By 12z Saturday Western cold front makes slow forward movement towards the East....Meantime 1022 MB high pressure remains in the about the same area...This will cause Southerly to Southwesterly winds to prevail over the FA....This should allow for another nice warm day.Winds will be somewhat stronger today than yesterday..By 18z Saturday Cold front is forecasted to be knocking on the ND,SD border...By 00z Sunday we find the cold front through the Central parts of ND,and SD...This shifts to the Eastern ND,and SD/far Western MN by 06z Sunday...So with the slower movement have kept showers out of the forecast for Saturday night...12z Sunday cold front should be into Central MN...With moisture flowing Northwards have decide to keep rain in for Sunday/Sunday night...Cold front really does not make into the FA...So may have to warm temps up on Monday...For now will leave forecast stand...With clouds and rain showers around some mixing of the cooler air aloft should keep temps in check...We will need to watch this though.....
***UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS***
500 MB charts showing a trof digging into the Northwest part of CONUS....With ridging still through the Central part of the Country..With another trof out over the Northeast part of the Country...Trof moves Closer to the FA on Sunday upper level jet comes crashing into the area on 40 KTS..See no reason why to remove rain chances on Sunday....Rain mixing with and changing to snow on Tuesday night still looks plausible as enough cold air is forecasted to be in place..More on this later,,,,
***FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN AREAS***
Today fog burning off before the 9 AM hr....Sunny with winds South winds around 5 to 10 MPH..Highs lower 50s...Tonight...PC with South winds 10 to 15 MPH lows in the middle 30s...Sunday mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers,,Highs upper 40s to lower 50s....Monday through Tuesday Rain Monday highs in the lower middle to upper 40s....Slight chance of rain Tuesday highs in the middle 40s..Tuesday night rain/snow lows in the lower 30s
***FORECAST FOR THE CENTRAL AREAS***
Today fog burning off around the 9 AM hr....Otherwise sunny skies with South around 5 to 10 MPH highs in the lower 50s...Tonight becoming cloudy winds South 5 to 10 MPH lows in the upper 30s...Sunday a chance of rain highs in the upper 40s....Monday through Tuesday....Rain on Monday with highs in the middle 40s....Rain Tuesday and rain and snow on tap for Tuesday night with highs in the upper 30s...Lows in the upper 20s...
***FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS***
Fog burning off by 10 AM or so, Sunny skies with South winds around 5 to 10 MPH highs in the middle 50s...Tonight becoming cloudy lows in the upper 30s with South/Southeast winds 5 to 10 MPH....15 MPH.....Sunday a chance of rain with highs in the lower 50s...Monday through Tuesday...Rain on Monday with highs in the middle 40s....Rain for Tuesday with highs in the lower 40s Rain mixed with snow changing to all snow Tuesday night.....
***EXTENDED FORECAST ***
Here is where the major headaches begin....GFS and ECMWF Still not seeing eye to eye on the storm system that cloud pose problems on Wednesday/Wednesday night,and maybe into early Thanksgiving day....Lets break this down...First off lets look at the GFS model....
This will be the 00z run.....Monday GFS has a 1011 MB low pressure system over North Central SD..By Tuesday low is forecasted to drop into Southwest MN and weaken by a MB or two....On Wednesday GFS takes this low through Western WI,and weakens said low to around 1009 MBS...By Thursday said low well off to our Northeast into Canada....Now if this was to play out...My forecast area would remain on the warm side and would see mostly rain...With a chance of rain mixing with snow Wednesday night....If we look into the late weekend....GFS has a 1002 MBS low pressure over Northern MT/Southern Canada on Saturday...GFS pushes this low Southeast to around Southern WI/Northern IL and deepens it to 997 MBS on Sunday..Monday GFS bombs this low out over far Eastern MI at 988 MBS..What would this mean if this was to verify for the FA...Well we should see all snow from this system,however with strong intensification some warmer air may get pulled into parts of the FA for rain/snow.freezing rain mix before ending as snow....Also would mean a rather windy weekend on tap....This was a big change from it's 18z run....
Ok lets now look at the ECMWF model....
Starting with Monday also...ECMWF model has a 1005 MB low pressure over Northern WY..By Tuesday said low drops into Southwestern NE/Northwestern KS...On Wednesday this model bring the low into Southern West IA/Northeast KS then moves low Northeast to Eastern WI South of Green Bay on Thursday....By Friday said low is forecasted to be around Northeast part MI and deepens to around 1004 by this time frame....Looking into the weekend....ECMWF has dropped the storm system.on it's 00z run...Was still on it's 12z run..See forecast below on what the track was then....So what I did is run with ECWMF model,however did blend in some of GFS ensemble...Either way this extend forecast is tricky leading to a low confidence level....Reason I ran with more of the ECMWF is how good it did at forecasting the weather pattern we now have over head.Also for the most part the consistent of it's past runs....
We will have daily updates as next week is a major Holiday travel for lots of people..So be sure to check in everyday for the latest on what could be not one but twp possible snow storms to effect the area....
***CURRENT CONDITIONS***
Fog is the main issue this early morning....Some of the vis reported have been less that 1/4 mile from Ladysmith down to Eau Claire...Some of the fog has been freezing on bridge deck,overpasses along with lesser traveled secondary back roads......Temps this morning are hanging in the upper 20s to lower 30s...Warmest temps found out in New Richmond...32° while the coldest temps up in Superior with 25° being reported......
***SFC ANALYSIS***
1022 MB high pressure is found over Northeast IL....Meanwhile a cold front was in Western MT reaching down into Northwest part of UT then back into Central CA...1000 MB low pressure is seeing over ID and another one found over Southwestern NV...By 12z Saturday Western cold front makes slow forward movement towards the East....Meantime 1022 MB high pressure remains in the about the same area...This will cause Southerly to Southwesterly winds to prevail over the FA....This should allow for another nice warm day.Winds will be somewhat stronger today than yesterday..By 18z Saturday Cold front is forecasted to be knocking on the ND,SD border...By 00z Sunday we find the cold front through the Central parts of ND,and SD...This shifts to the Eastern ND,and SD/far Western MN by 06z Sunday...So with the slower movement have kept showers out of the forecast for Saturday night...12z Sunday cold front should be into Central MN...With moisture flowing Northwards have decide to keep rain in for Sunday/Sunday night...Cold front really does not make into the FA...So may have to warm temps up on Monday...For now will leave forecast stand...With clouds and rain showers around some mixing of the cooler air aloft should keep temps in check...We will need to watch this though.....
***UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS***
500 MB charts showing a trof digging into the Northwest part of CONUS....With ridging still through the Central part of the Country..With another trof out over the Northeast part of the Country...Trof moves Closer to the FA on Sunday upper level jet comes crashing into the area on 40 KTS..See no reason why to remove rain chances on Sunday....Rain mixing with and changing to snow on Tuesday night still looks plausible as enough cold air is forecasted to be in place..More on this later,,,,
***FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN AREAS***
Today fog burning off before the 9 AM hr....Sunny with winds South winds around 5 to 10 MPH..Highs lower 50s...Tonight...PC with South winds 10 to 15 MPH lows in the middle 30s...Sunday mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers,,Highs upper 40s to lower 50s....Monday through Tuesday Rain Monday highs in the lower middle to upper 40s....Slight chance of rain Tuesday highs in the middle 40s..Tuesday night rain/snow lows in the lower 30s
***FORECAST FOR THE CENTRAL AREAS***
Today fog burning off around the 9 AM hr....Otherwise sunny skies with South around 5 to 10 MPH highs in the lower 50s...Tonight becoming cloudy winds South 5 to 10 MPH lows in the upper 30s...Sunday a chance of rain highs in the upper 40s....Monday through Tuesday....Rain on Monday with highs in the middle 40s....Rain Tuesday and rain and snow on tap for Tuesday night with highs in the upper 30s...Lows in the upper 20s...
***FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS***
Fog burning off by 10 AM or so, Sunny skies with South winds around 5 to 10 MPH highs in the middle 50s...Tonight becoming cloudy lows in the upper 30s with South/Southeast winds 5 to 10 MPH....15 MPH.....Sunday a chance of rain with highs in the lower 50s...Monday through Tuesday...Rain on Monday with highs in the middle 40s....Rain for Tuesday with highs in the lower 40s Rain mixed with snow changing to all snow Tuesday night.....
***EXTENDED FORECAST ***
Here is where the major headaches begin....GFS and ECMWF Still not seeing eye to eye on the storm system that cloud pose problems on Wednesday/Wednesday night,and maybe into early Thanksgiving day....Lets break this down...First off lets look at the GFS model....
This will be the 00z run.....Monday GFS has a 1011 MB low pressure system over North Central SD..By Tuesday low is forecasted to drop into Southwest MN and weaken by a MB or two....On Wednesday GFS takes this low through Western WI,and weakens said low to around 1009 MBS...By Thursday said low well off to our Northeast into Canada....Now if this was to play out...My forecast area would remain on the warm side and would see mostly rain...With a chance of rain mixing with snow Wednesday night....If we look into the late weekend....GFS has a 1002 MBS low pressure over Northern MT/Southern Canada on Saturday...GFS pushes this low Southeast to around Southern WI/Northern IL and deepens it to 997 MBS on Sunday..Monday GFS bombs this low out over far Eastern MI at 988 MBS..What would this mean if this was to verify for the FA...Well we should see all snow from this system,however with strong intensification some warmer air may get pulled into parts of the FA for rain/snow.freezing rain mix before ending as snow....Also would mean a rather windy weekend on tap....This was a big change from it's 18z run....
Ok lets now look at the ECMWF model....
Starting with Monday also...ECMWF model has a 1005 MB low pressure over Northern WY..By Tuesday said low drops into Southwestern NE/Northwestern KS...On Wednesday this model bring the low into Southern West IA/Northeast KS then moves low Northeast to Eastern WI South of Green Bay on Thursday....By Friday said low is forecasted to be around Northeast part MI and deepens to around 1004 by this time frame....Looking into the weekend....ECMWF has dropped the storm system.on it's 00z run...Was still on it's 12z run..See forecast below on what the track was then....So what I did is run with ECWMF model,however did blend in some of GFS ensemble...Either way this extend forecast is tricky leading to a low confidence level....Reason I ran with more of the ECMWF is how good it did at forecasting the weather pattern we now have over head.Also for the most part the consistent of it's past runs....
We will have daily updates as next week is a major Holiday travel for lots of people..So be sure to check in everyday for the latest on what could be not one but twp possible snow storms to effect the area....
Friday, November 20, 2009
The forecast for Western and Northwestern WI
Forecast headaches,yes there are afew issues we have to work out.....1 is how long to keep the above normal temps going.2 when to bring in the colder air...3 when to bring in rain chances 4 when to change the rain to snow....If that was not enough when to time the next storm system that may bring us a white Thanksgiving....
***CURRENT CONDITIONS***
At this 3 AM hr all stations reporting cloudy skies...Most are reporting fog...Temps in the lower to middle 40s found are wide....Fog should not be to big of deal for most spots this morning....
***SFC ANALYSIS***
This morning's SFC charts shows..An areas of Low pressure that brought the FA some rain yesterday morning now Northeast of the area...Still clouds hanging tight....Those should be clearing through out the morning as RH values drop....Meanwhile large areas of 1024 MB high pressure down in the TN Valley will keep the temps mild today with with winds South/Southwest....High pressure controls the weather out over the Rockies...Next system of interests is now coming on the Northwestern States Coast line........
***UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS***
Upper level low spinning it's wheels over Western/Central MI this morning is forecasted to lift East/Northeast into Canada by this afternoon...This should be taken the clouds with it...Ridge is forecasted to build back into the area for today and the first day of deer hunting.Looks like the trof out West build into the FA Sunday and hold through much of next week with afew areas of SFC low pressure systems working Northeast....Will talk about that in the extended forecast....Meanwhile the trof is forecasted to slowly bring in colder temps back into the area by Tuesday...
***FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN AREAS***
Today fog burning off before the 10 AM hr....Skies becoming PC with winds SW to South winds around 5 to 8 MPH..Highs middle 40s.....Tonight...PC with South winds calm to 5 MPH lows in the lower 30s...Opening day of deer hunting brings us sunny skies with South winds 5 to 10 MPH...With warm highs in the upper 40s.....Saturday night cloudy with a slight chance of rain showers lows in the lower 40s....Sunday mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers,,Highs still warm upper 40s....Monday through Tuesday Rain and snow Monday highs in the lower 40s....Slight chance of snow Tuesday highs in the middle 30s
***FORECAST FOR THE CENTRAL AREAS***
Today fog burning off around the 9 AM hr....Otherwise skies becoming PC with West Southwest around 5 MPH highs in the upper 40s...Tonight PC winds calm lows in the lower 30s...Some of our cooler spots could dip into the upper 20s....Saturday...Deer hunters will be warm under sunny skies and Southwest/South winds around 10 to 15 MPH...Highs in the upper 40s...May see some 50s at some spots...Saturday night becoming cloudy lows in the upper 30s...Will keep rain chances out of the forecast for now....Sunday a chance of rain highs in the upper 40s....Monday through Tuesday....Rain on Monday with highs in the middle 40s....Rain and snow on tap for Tuesday with highs in the middle 30s...
***FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS***
Fog burning off by 8 AM or so PC with Southwest/South winds around 10 to 15 MPH highs in the lower 50s...Tonight PC lows in the lower 30s with Light South/Southwest winds....Saturday..Sunny warm highs in the middle 50s with South/Southwest winds around 10 to 15 MPH..Saturday night increasing clouds lows in the upper 30s...Sunday a chance of rain with highs in the lower 50s...Monday through Tuesday...Rain on Monday with highs in the middle 40s....Rain and snow for Tuesday with highs in the upper 30s...
***EXTENDED FORECAST ***
On Wednesday we see a 1004 MB low pressure over far Eastern WI per GFS model...However it's fast to pull out so any rain/snow will be fast to end..540 line well to our South so any rain should be changing to snow by Tuesday night and ending by midmorning Wednesday..Now looking at the ECMWF model we see another story....On Monday we see a low pressure forming over CO..By Wednesday the low lifts Northeast to SW IA then by Thursday said low is forecasted to be over Northeast WI....Cold enough air will be in place for all snow....If ECMWF model does verify we could be dealing with a snow storm for parts of the FA for Wednesday night into Thanksgiving day.....We will see.....As you can see models are battling with each other on what is forecasted to happen....Right now ECMWF seems to be the model of choice....What is very interesting is yet another storm system that is forecasted by this model to effect the area on Nov 29 and the 30th...Here again enough cold air in place at all levels to support all snow......I'm sure we will fine tune this forecast through out the weekend into next week...We will have daily updates as next week is a major Holiday travel for lots of people..So be sure to check in everyday for the latest on what could be not one but twp possible snow storms to effect the area....
***CURRENT CONDITIONS***
At this 3 AM hr all stations reporting cloudy skies...Most are reporting fog...Temps in the lower to middle 40s found are wide....Fog should not be to big of deal for most spots this morning....
***SFC ANALYSIS***
This morning's SFC charts shows..An areas of Low pressure that brought the FA some rain yesterday morning now Northeast of the area...Still clouds hanging tight....Those should be clearing through out the morning as RH values drop....Meanwhile large areas of 1024 MB high pressure down in the TN Valley will keep the temps mild today with with winds South/Southwest....High pressure controls the weather out over the Rockies...Next system of interests is now coming on the Northwestern States Coast line........
***UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS***
Upper level low spinning it's wheels over Western/Central MI this morning is forecasted to lift East/Northeast into Canada by this afternoon...This should be taken the clouds with it...Ridge is forecasted to build back into the area for today and the first day of deer hunting.Looks like the trof out West build into the FA Sunday and hold through much of next week with afew areas of SFC low pressure systems working Northeast....Will talk about that in the extended forecast....Meanwhile the trof is forecasted to slowly bring in colder temps back into the area by Tuesday...
***FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN AREAS***
Today fog burning off before the 10 AM hr....Skies becoming PC with winds SW to South winds around 5 to 8 MPH..Highs middle 40s.....Tonight...PC with South winds calm to 5 MPH lows in the lower 30s...Opening day of deer hunting brings us sunny skies with South winds 5 to 10 MPH...With warm highs in the upper 40s.....Saturday night cloudy with a slight chance of rain showers lows in the lower 40s....Sunday mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers,,Highs still warm upper 40s....Monday through Tuesday Rain and snow Monday highs in the lower 40s....Slight chance of snow Tuesday highs in the middle 30s
***FORECAST FOR THE CENTRAL AREAS***
Today fog burning off around the 9 AM hr....Otherwise skies becoming PC with West Southwest around 5 MPH highs in the upper 40s...Tonight PC winds calm lows in the lower 30s...Some of our cooler spots could dip into the upper 20s....Saturday...Deer hunters will be warm under sunny skies and Southwest/South winds around 10 to 15 MPH...Highs in the upper 40s...May see some 50s at some spots...Saturday night becoming cloudy lows in the upper 30s...Will keep rain chances out of the forecast for now....Sunday a chance of rain highs in the upper 40s....Monday through Tuesday....Rain on Monday with highs in the middle 40s....Rain and snow on tap for Tuesday with highs in the middle 30s...
***FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS***
Fog burning off by 8 AM or so PC with Southwest/South winds around 10 to 15 MPH highs in the lower 50s...Tonight PC lows in the lower 30s with Light South/Southwest winds....Saturday..Sunny warm highs in the middle 50s with South/Southwest winds around 10 to 15 MPH..Saturday night increasing clouds lows in the upper 30s...Sunday a chance of rain with highs in the lower 50s...Monday through Tuesday...Rain on Monday with highs in the middle 40s....Rain and snow for Tuesday with highs in the upper 30s...
***EXTENDED FORECAST ***
On Wednesday we see a 1004 MB low pressure over far Eastern WI per GFS model...However it's fast to pull out so any rain/snow will be fast to end..540 line well to our South so any rain should be changing to snow by Tuesday night and ending by midmorning Wednesday..Now looking at the ECMWF model we see another story....On Monday we see a low pressure forming over CO..By Wednesday the low lifts Northeast to SW IA then by Thursday said low is forecasted to be over Northeast WI....Cold enough air will be in place for all snow....If ECMWF model does verify we could be dealing with a snow storm for parts of the FA for Wednesday night into Thanksgiving day.....We will see.....As you can see models are battling with each other on what is forecasted to happen....Right now ECMWF seems to be the model of choice....What is very interesting is yet another storm system that is forecasted by this model to effect the area on Nov 29 and the 30th...Here again enough cold air in place at all levels to support all snow......I'm sure we will fine tune this forecast through out the weekend into next week...We will have daily updates as next week is a major Holiday travel for lots of people..So be sure to check in everyday for the latest on what could be not one but twp possible snow storms to effect the area....
Wednesday, November 18, 2009
More Meteor shower pictures
Tuesday, November 17, 2009
Leonid meteor shower
Monday, November 16, 2009
Pictures of silver lake
Saturday, November 14, 2009
Just some pictures
The forecast for Western/Northwestern WI....
Warm temps still camping out over the FA..This trend should hold through much of the upcoming work week....Temps should start to trend down wards as we get towards the end of next week...Next chance of rain comes back into play towards the Thursday night/Friday time frame...More on this in a few...
***CURRENT CONDITIONS***
Temps this morning are in the middle to upper 40s under cloudy/foggy skies..Warmest temp is found in Eau Claire 48°,while the coolest temp is found up in Ashland 44°...VSB from fog range from 1/4 mile to around a mile in some of the thicker fog....
***SFC ANALYSIS***
This morning SFC Charts shows a 1004 MB low pressure system over Eastern MN/Western WI....With a cold front reaching North and South from said low..Meanwhile a week area of high pressure is center over ND and another area over Eastern WY...A cold front is located from Western MT back towards Northern CA...We find a very strong 998 MB low pressure off the NC Coast...This could lead to some forecast issues.....Low pressure over our neck of the woods is forecasted to lift Northeast and weaken during the day...This should bring the end to rain through out the area as the day flies by....1027 MB high pressure out over the Western states is forecasted to start to slowly push towards the area...By Sunday this high should be located in Western MT and should be around 1037 MBS.....Ridge of 1037 high pressure will build into the area and should keep our skies mostly sunny to sunny through much of the new work week...Can you say blocking pattern...That is what appears to be taking shape...Some in part is do to the low out over the Eastern Coastal areas...As it will just meander around for a few days...
***SFC/MID/ UPPER LEVEL DISCUSSION***
Main story here is the upper level blocking pattern setting up...Models are not really seeing eye to eye on this...However Am going to run with GFS has it has been more bullheaded about this all week...ECMWF has been all over the place,so not much weight given into ECMWF model ATTM....This will allow for much of the Western/Central US to be dry and warm..Our upper level winds will be Westerly so not much cooling of the column...So temps should be at or above norms must of the new work week.....Upper level low is forecasted to to move Southeast into the Rockies then out into KS,then towards the FA by Thursday night into Friday this will bring in a slight chance of rain by this time frame...Will have to see how strong and how long the blocking pattern will hold...May have to pull rain chances out of the forecast
***FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN AREAS***
Areas of fog this morning with a chance of rain...Rain should be ending around the afternoon hour....Cloudy with highs around 40 to 45..Winds North/Northwest around 10 MPH.Tonight becoming PC with lows around 26 to 29...Light winds out of the North/Northwest...Sunday...Mostly sunny highs 42 to 45 winds becoming SW 5 to 10 MPH....Monday through Thursday....Mostly to sunny skies highs in the middle to upper 40s with lows in the middle to upper 20s warming to the middle 30s by Thur night...With a chance of rain Thur night into Fri..
***FORECAST FOR THE CENTRAL AREAS***
Areas of fog this morning with a chance of rain and mist ending around noon,cloudy highs 45 to 48...Winds NW around 10 MPH...Tonight PC skies with lows in the upper 20s winds becoming calm...Sunday Mostly sunny highs in the middle to upper 40s with lows in the middle to upper 20s....Monday through Thur...Most to sunny skies highs in the middle to upper 40s with lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s,warming to the middle 30s by Thur night....Slight chance of rain for Thur night into Fri.....
***FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS***
Areas of mist this morning should become to an end before the noon hr.cloudy with highs in the upper 40s to around 50 or so..Winds W/NW around 10 MPH...Tonight PC with light to calm winds lows in the upper 20s...Sunday...Sunny with highs in the upper 40s to around 50....Lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s....Monday through Thur...Mostly to sunny skies with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s...Lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s,warming into the middle 30s by Wed night and Thur night....A chance of rain comes in Thur night and last into Friday...
***EXTENDED FORECAST ***
Not much time to look at the long range forecast....Plus with the possible blocking pattern setting up that will cause all sorts of problems in the longer term forecast....
***CURRENT CONDITIONS***
Temps this morning are in the middle to upper 40s under cloudy/foggy skies..Warmest temp is found in Eau Claire 48°,while the coolest temp is found up in Ashland 44°...VSB from fog range from 1/4 mile to around a mile in some of the thicker fog....
***SFC ANALYSIS***
This morning SFC Charts shows a 1004 MB low pressure system over Eastern MN/Western WI....With a cold front reaching North and South from said low..Meanwhile a week area of high pressure is center over ND and another area over Eastern WY...A cold front is located from Western MT back towards Northern CA...We find a very strong 998 MB low pressure off the NC Coast...This could lead to some forecast issues.....Low pressure over our neck of the woods is forecasted to lift Northeast and weaken during the day...This should bring the end to rain through out the area as the day flies by....1027 MB high pressure out over the Western states is forecasted to start to slowly push towards the area...By Sunday this high should be located in Western MT and should be around 1037 MBS.....Ridge of 1037 high pressure will build into the area and should keep our skies mostly sunny to sunny through much of the new work week...Can you say blocking pattern...That is what appears to be taking shape...Some in part is do to the low out over the Eastern Coastal areas...As it will just meander around for a few days...
***SFC/MID/ UPPER LEVEL DISCUSSION***
Main story here is the upper level blocking pattern setting up...Models are not really seeing eye to eye on this...However Am going to run with GFS has it has been more bullheaded about this all week...ECMWF has been all over the place,so not much weight given into ECMWF model ATTM....This will allow for much of the Western/Central US to be dry and warm..Our upper level winds will be Westerly so not much cooling of the column...So temps should be at or above norms must of the new work week.....Upper level low is forecasted to to move Southeast into the Rockies then out into KS,then towards the FA by Thursday night into Friday this will bring in a slight chance of rain by this time frame...Will have to see how strong and how long the blocking pattern will hold...May have to pull rain chances out of the forecast
***FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN AREAS***
Areas of fog this morning with a chance of rain...Rain should be ending around the afternoon hour....Cloudy with highs around 40 to 45..Winds North/Northwest around 10 MPH.Tonight becoming PC with lows around 26 to 29...Light winds out of the North/Northwest...Sunday...Mostly sunny highs 42 to 45 winds becoming SW 5 to 10 MPH....Monday through Thursday....Mostly to sunny skies highs in the middle to upper 40s with lows in the middle to upper 20s warming to the middle 30s by Thur night...With a chance of rain Thur night into Fri..
***FORECAST FOR THE CENTRAL AREAS***
Areas of fog this morning with a chance of rain and mist ending around noon,cloudy highs 45 to 48...Winds NW around 10 MPH...Tonight PC skies with lows in the upper 20s winds becoming calm...Sunday Mostly sunny highs in the middle to upper 40s with lows in the middle to upper 20s....Monday through Thur...Most to sunny skies highs in the middle to upper 40s with lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s,warming to the middle 30s by Thur night....Slight chance of rain for Thur night into Fri.....
***FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS***
Areas of mist this morning should become to an end before the noon hr.cloudy with highs in the upper 40s to around 50 or so..Winds W/NW around 10 MPH...Tonight PC with light to calm winds lows in the upper 20s...Sunday...Sunny with highs in the upper 40s to around 50....Lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s....Monday through Thur...Mostly to sunny skies with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s...Lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s,warming into the middle 30s by Wed night and Thur night....A chance of rain comes in Thur night and last into Friday...
***EXTENDED FORECAST ***
Not much time to look at the long range forecast....Plus with the possible blocking pattern setting up that will cause all sorts of problems in the longer term forecast....
Tuesday, November 10, 2009
Astro photography
Sunday, November 1, 2009
October recap
October went down in being the 4 th wettest on record...Records date back to 1949....This was EAU records since I didn't find nothing for Rice Lake...What is still rather interesting is with all the rain/snow we did get this past month,we are still in a severe drought as of 10/27/09..This has eased some,however Counties still in the severe drought would be as follows...Northern 1/3 of Barron County,Far Northeastern Polk County,and Far Northwestern Rusk County...Along with points North of of said Counties.....Counties still in the moderate drought.....Central Barron,rest of Eastern Polk County,and Central Rusk County....Areas in the abnormally dry area.....Far Southern Barron,Rusk,the rest of Polk County,Northern part of ST.Croix,Northern 1/2 of Dunn and Chippewa Counties..See the NIDIS website for more info...They are forecasting an ongoing drought with some improvement..Forecast runs through Jan 2010.....If time allows I will take some pictures of Silver lake today just to show you so far the rain/snow really has not helped out to much for the bigger and deeper lakes..The rainfall/snowfall did help out the smaller lakes,ponds,and smaller rivers....Main thing the rain/snow did help out with was to bring the soil moisture up!
So back to Barron County....Here is how things went down...We did have a very wet October..Well above normal in rain and snowfall....Temps were once again colder than normal.....There were no thunderstorm days ...There was 5 snow days in Oct.....I day with non thunderstorm wind damage....
SNOW DAYS.....
Oct 10 had 0.25 inches of snow..
Oct.12 3.25 inches of snow...
Oct.15 2.00 inches of snow...
Oct.23 3.3.75 inches of snow...
Oct 31..1.00 of snow...(fell over night,melted by 8-9 AM)....
Total snowfall for Oct stands at.. 10.25 inches of snow....All snow totals are from The Weather Center.....
Oct 30..Very strong winds made a visit to the area...This did cause some wind damage...See post below for that info....
So back to Barron County....Here is how things went down...We did have a very wet October..Well above normal in rain and snowfall....Temps were once again colder than normal.....There were no thunderstorm days ...There was 5 snow days in Oct.....I day with non thunderstorm wind damage....
SNOW DAYS.....
Oct 10 had 0.25 inches of snow..
Oct.12 3.25 inches of snow...
Oct.15 2.00 inches of snow...
Oct.23 3.3.75 inches of snow...
Oct 31..1.00 of snow...(fell over night,melted by 8-9 AM)....
Total snowfall for Oct stands at.. 10.25 inches of snow....All snow totals are from The Weather Center.....
Oct 30..Very strong winds made a visit to the area...This did cause some wind damage...See post below for that info....
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