The forecast for Western and Northwestern WI

Forecast headaches,yes there are afew issues we have to work out.....1 is how long to keep the above normal temps going.2 when to bring in the colder air...3 when to bring in rain chances 4 when to change the rain to snow....If that was not enough when to time the next storm system that may bring us a white Thanksgiving....




***CURRENT CONDITIONS***

At this 3 AM hr all stations reporting cloudy skies...Most are reporting fog...Temps in the lower to middle 40s found are wide....Fog should not be to big of deal for most spots this morning....

***SFC ANALYSIS***



This morning's SFC charts shows..An areas of Low pressure that brought the FA some rain yesterday morning now Northeast of the area...Still clouds hanging tight....Those should be clearing through out the morning as RH values drop....Meanwhile large areas of 1024 MB high pressure down in the TN Valley will keep the temps mild today with with winds South/Southwest....High pressure controls the weather out over the Rockies...Next system of interests is now coming on the Northwestern States Coast line........

***UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS***

Upper level low spinning it's wheels over Western/Central MI this morning is forecasted to lift East/Northeast into Canada by this afternoon...This should be taken the clouds with it...Ridge is forecasted to build back into the area for today and the first day of deer hunting.Looks like the trof out West build into the FA Sunday and hold through much of next week with afew areas of SFC low pressure systems working Northeast....Will talk about that in the extended forecast....Meanwhile the trof is forecasted to slowly bring in colder temps back into the area by Tuesday...

***FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN AREAS***

Today fog burning off before the 10 AM hr....Skies becoming PC with winds SW to South winds around 5 to 8 MPH..Highs middle 40s.....Tonight...PC with South winds calm to 5 MPH lows in the lower 30s...Opening day of deer hunting brings us sunny skies with South winds 5 to 10 MPH...With warm highs in the upper 40s.....Saturday night cloudy with a slight chance of rain showers lows in the lower 40s....Sunday mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers,,Highs still warm upper 40s....Monday through Tuesday Rain and snow Monday highs in the lower 40s....Slight chance of snow Tuesday highs in the middle 30s

***FORECAST FOR THE CENTRAL AREAS***

Today fog burning off around the 9 AM hr....Otherwise skies becoming PC with West Southwest around 5 MPH highs in the upper 40s...Tonight PC winds calm lows in the lower 30s...Some of our cooler spots could dip into the upper 20s....Saturday...Deer hunters will be warm under sunny skies and Southwest/South winds around 10 to 15 MPH...Highs in the upper 40s...May see some 50s at some spots...Saturday night becoming cloudy lows in the upper 30s...Will keep rain chances out of the forecast for now....Sunday a chance of rain highs in the upper 40s....Monday through Tuesday....Rain on Monday with highs in the middle 40s....Rain and snow on tap for Tuesday with highs in the middle 30s...

***FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS***

Fog burning off by 8 AM or so PC with Southwest/South winds around 10 to 15 MPH highs in the lower 50s...Tonight PC lows in the lower 30s with Light South/Southwest winds....Saturday..Sunny warm highs in the middle 50s with South/Southwest winds around 10 to 15 MPH..Saturday night increasing clouds lows in the upper 30s...Sunday a chance of rain with highs in the lower 50s...Monday through Tuesday...Rain on Monday with highs in the middle 40s....Rain and snow for Tuesday with highs in the upper 30s...

***EXTENDED FORECAST ***

On Wednesday we see a 1004 MB low pressure over far Eastern WI per GFS model...However it's fast to pull out so any rain/snow will be fast to end..540 line well to our South so any rain should be changing to snow by Tuesday night and ending by midmorning Wednesday..Now looking at the ECMWF model we see another story....On Monday we see a low pressure forming over CO..By Wednesday the low lifts Northeast to SW IA then by Thursday said low is forecasted to be over Northeast WI....Cold enough air will be in place for all snow....If ECMWF model does verify we could be dealing with a snow storm for parts of the FA for Wednesday night into Thanksgiving day.....We will see.....As you can see models are battling with each other on what is forecasted to happen....Right now ECMWF seems to be the model of choice....What is very interesting is yet another storm system that is forecasted by this model to effect the area on Nov 29 and the 30th...Here again enough cold air in place at all levels to support all snow......I'm sure we will fine tune this forecast through out the weekend into next week...We will have daily updates as next week is a major Holiday travel for lots of people..So be sure to check in everyday for the latest on what could be not one but twp possible snow storms to effect the area....