The forecast for Western/Northwestern WI

The snow that could have been should have been never got going like it was forecasted...However rain and snow mixture was common across the area yesterday and last evening...Forecast headaches...There are many...First off the bat is how cold to keep temps,and how cold to drop temps come Sunday through much of next week....Then the timing of the next storm system when to bring snow showers/flurries back into the forecast and how long to run with it....Some issues do show up in the long range forecasting models,so that will play havoc in the extended forecast.....


***CURRENT CONDITIONS***

Forecast area locked under cloudy skies at this 6 am hour...Temps are in the upper 20s to lower 30s...Winds still remain rather strong....anywhere from 10 to 15 MPH with gusts up to around 16 to 18 MPH....Windchills running from 19 to 26,so a blustery morning out there...Satellite imagery showing some breaks in the clouds out over Western MN ..Looking at MN SFC OBS they are matching rather well with the cloud breaks....Winds over there are also rather strong/gusty...Leads me to think winds will remain up for a few hours if not most of today....

***SFC ANALYSIS***

Cold front that blasted through the area early yesterday is now past MI down to far Northern LA....Weak area of low pressure still remains over Lake MI....This has kept the CAA going through out the night...Cloud cover and winds kept temps in check during the overnight hrs...1022 MB high pressure is located over far Northern ND....Our next weather maker is now coming on shore in BC Canada....Skies should slowly start to become partly cloudy around noon today as weak high pressure builds into the area....Winds should also slacken off as we head through this day..This is setting up the FA for a very cold night.....Meantime a warm front will start to move into ND/SD by 00z Friday.By 06Z said front should be into the Eastern areas of ND/SD...How my forecast areas will not see any WAA kick in until late Friday afternoon or as late as Friday night.....By Saturday 12z we find 1021 MB high pressure to our Southeast over the TN Valley...Weak area of low pressure is forecasted to be on the Western part of MN doorstep...This has me thinking I will keep Saturday clear to partly sunny/cloudy..Will have to increase clouds Saturday night....Low then pulls into Northeastern WI ..As it does this should ensure the FA a cloudy day with snow showers/flurries around...Does not look like a big deal ATTM...Will watch it though if this low was to track a tad more South it would bring the better dynamics with it and could lead to an inch or so of snow to the FA,right now best areas for that will be over my far Northern parts of the FA....Arctic high pressure builds into the forecast area through next Wed....By Wed highs may not get out of the 20s....With lows in the teens.....

***MID/ UPPER LEVEL DISCUSSION***

Looking at the 500 MB charts this morning....Upper level low is over Southern WI/Northern MN...This has setup the Forecast areas under a N/NW flow...CAA well under way...Later today upper level low moves into SW/MI/NE IN.....Jet does increase to around 50 to around 60 KTS,this will insure the CAA to keep a coming....Meanwhile a ridge building out to our Southwest,will for the most part remain South of the area,however this will allow the upper level flow to flatten out into more of a Westerly flow on Sat...This will allow temps to warm a little..We find another upper level low digging into Western CA..This will become our next problem for Wednesday night into Thursday's time frame...More on this later....So overall the colder weather pattern will remain in place,some warmer temps for this weekend,then CAA really takes hold of the FA for next week....

***FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN AREAS***

TODAY....Will run with mostly cloudy skies,then becoming PC towards evening...Highs today 30 to 33 with Northwest winds 10 to 15 MPH with higher gusts....Tonight PC skies,should become clear with lows in the lower 20s with Northwest winds becoming light to calm....Saturday....Partly to mostly sunny with highs in the upper 30s to around 40...Lows Sat night fall into the lower 20s...With a slight chance of snow.....Sunday cloudy with periods of light snow...1/4 to 1/2 inch possible...Highs in the lower 30s....Will keep snow alive for Sun night...Lows in the upper teens....Could see another 1/4 to 1/2 inch of snow,Mainly over far northern areas towards Lake Superior...

Monday through Wed....Slight chance of snow early Monday and again on Wed....Highs through this time frame lower 30s to upper 20s by Wed, with lows in the middle to upper teens...

***FORECAST FOR THE CENTRAL AREAS***

Today skies becoming partly cloudy highs in the middle 30s...Winds Northwest around 10 MPH with higher gust this morning...Tonight partly cloudy becoming clear lows in the lower 20s..Northwest winds become light them calm...Saturday....Partly sunny/partly cloudy highs in the lower to middle 40s winds light out of the W/NW....Sat night...Increasing clouds lows in the lower to middle 20s...Sun..slight chance of snow showers/flurries..Highs in the lower to middle 30s..Sun night...Will keep a slight chance of snow going lows in the lower 20s....

Monday through Wed.....Partly cloudy to mostly sunny highs start of in the middle 30s and then drop into the upper 20s by Wed..Lows in the in the middle to upper teens.....

***FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS***

Today becoming partly cloudy with highs in the middle 30s,With Northwest winds around 10 MPH with higher gusts mainly this morning...Tonight Partly cloudy then becoming clear winds light then becoming calm...Lows in the lower 20s...Sat...Partly to mostly sunny skies highs in the middle 40s..Sat night lows fall into the upper 20s under increasing clouds....Sunday....Small chance of snow showers/flurries..Highs in the middle to upper 30s...Low Sun night in the middle 20s with a small chance at some snow showers and flurries....Monday through Wed.....Partly to mostly sunny skies...Highs start off in the middle 30s then fall to the lower 30s by Wed...Meantime lows in the upper teens to lower 20s....

***EXTENDED FORECAST ***

Here is where the fun begins once again....Snow storm or no snow storm later next week? as some forecasters have been hinting at well lets see if I can answer this one....

First off we will look at good old reliable forecasting model...ECWMF.....Looking at the 00z run...On Wed we see a 994 MB low pressure over far Northwestern ND this low is forecasted to move along the USA.Canada border and weakens as it does...Most of the energy would be focused to our North..leaving the FA with some light snows...Heights through out all levels would be cold enough for all snow.....Ok now lets look at the GFS models...To be fair will run with 00z run like I did with the ECWMF..

GFS has a 992 MB low pressure over Northern ND on Wed....Low then fills in by Thursday over Lake Superior.So lights snow would be possible for the FA,however I don't agree with what this model is showing..With a 993 MB low forming over KY on Thursday..GFS races this almost do North to just East of MI and deepen the low to around 982 MBS...All this would do is bring in windy conditions to my Central and Eastern parts of the FA..On it's 06z Run this model shows more of the FA to have more winds...So with that said,as of right now I really see no big snow storms in the forecast from Dec 1 through Dec 6th.....Will stick by ECWMF model with and toss GFS and other models out the window for now....One thing that both models seem to agree on is the cold air over the my FA...So to sum this extended forecast up...No big snow storm are forecasted as of right now...Temps do look to remain cold through this time period....