The forecast for Western/Northwestern WI

Not much needed to be changed in ongoing forecast....Main problem still remains in the extended forecast cycle....As long range forecasting models still not coming to any agreement on placement of storm systems,or the strength of them....Short and middle term forecast still on track so won't touch it to much....Fog did become a problem in my Central and Southern areas..That should burn off between 9 AM and 10 AM this morning.....

***CURRENT CONDITIONS***

Fog is the main issue this early morning....Some of the vis reported have been less that 1/4 mile from Ladysmith down to Eau Claire...Some of the fog has been freezing on bridge deck,overpasses along with lesser traveled secondary back roads......Temps this morning are hanging in the upper 20s to lower 30s...Warmest temps found out in New Richmond...32° while the coldest temps up in Superior with 25° being reported......

***SFC ANALYSIS***

1022 MB high pressure is found over Northeast IL....Meanwhile a cold front was in Western MT reaching down into Northwest part of UT then back into Central CA...1000 MB low pressure is seeing over ID and another one found over Southwestern NV...By 12z Saturday Western cold front makes slow forward movement towards the East....Meantime 1022 MB high pressure remains in the about the same area...This will cause Southerly to Southwesterly winds to prevail over the FA....This should allow for another nice warm day.Winds will be somewhat stronger today than yesterday..By 18z Saturday Cold front is forecasted to be knocking on the ND,SD border...By 00z Sunday we find the cold front through the Central parts of ND,and SD...This shifts to the Eastern ND,and SD/far Western MN by 06z Sunday...So with the slower movement have kept showers out of the forecast for Saturday night...12z Sunday cold front should be into Central MN...With moisture flowing Northwards have decide to keep rain in for Sunday/Sunday night...Cold front really does not make into the FA...So may have to warm temps up on Monday...For now will leave forecast stand...With clouds and rain showers around some mixing of the cooler air aloft should keep temps in check...We will need to watch this though.....

***UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS***

500 MB charts showing a trof digging into the Northwest part of CONUS....With ridging still through the Central part of the Country..With another trof out over the Northeast part of the Country...Trof moves Closer to the FA on Sunday upper level jet comes crashing into the area on 40 KTS..See no reason why to remove rain chances on Sunday....Rain mixing with and changing to snow on Tuesday night still looks plausible as enough cold air is forecasted to be in place..More on this later,,,,

***FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN AREAS***

Today fog burning off before the 9 AM hr....Sunny with winds South winds around 5 to 10 MPH..Highs lower 50s...Tonight...PC with South winds 10 to 15 MPH lows in the middle 30s...Sunday mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers,,Highs upper 40s to lower 50s....Monday through Tuesday Rain Monday highs in the lower middle to upper 40s....Slight chance of rain Tuesday highs in the middle 40s..Tuesday night rain/snow lows in the lower 30s

***FORECAST FOR THE CENTRAL AREAS***

Today fog burning off around the 9 AM hr....Otherwise sunny skies with South around 5 to 10 MPH highs in the lower 50s...Tonight becoming cloudy winds South 5 to 10 MPH lows in the upper 30s...Sunday a chance of rain highs in the upper 40s....Monday through Tuesday....Rain on Monday with highs in the middle 40s....Rain Tuesday and rain and snow on tap for Tuesday night with highs in the upper 30s...Lows in the upper 20s...

***FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS***

Fog burning off by 10 AM or so, Sunny skies with South winds around 5 to 10 MPH highs in the middle 50s...Tonight becoming cloudy lows in the upper 30s with South/Southeast winds 5 to 10 MPH....15 MPH.....Sunday a chance of rain with highs in the lower 50s...Monday through Tuesday...Rain on Monday with highs in the middle 40s....Rain for Tuesday with highs in the lower 40s Rain mixed with snow changing to all snow Tuesday night.....

***EXTENDED FORECAST ***

Here is where the major headaches begin....GFS and ECMWF Still not seeing eye to eye on the storm system that cloud pose problems on Wednesday/Wednesday night,and maybe into early Thanksgiving day....Lets break this down...First off lets look at the GFS model....

This will be the 00z run.....Monday GFS has a 1011 MB low pressure system over North Central SD..By Tuesday low is forecasted to drop into Southwest MN and weaken by a MB or two....On Wednesday GFS takes this low through Western WI,and weakens said low to around 1009 MBS...By Thursday said low well off to our Northeast into Canada....Now if this was to play out...My forecast area would remain on the warm side and would see mostly rain...With a chance of rain mixing with snow Wednesday night....If we look into the late weekend....GFS has a 1002 MBS low pressure over Northern MT/Southern Canada on Saturday...GFS pushes this low Southeast to around Southern WI/Northern IL and deepens it to 997 MBS on Sunday..Monday GFS bombs this low out over far Eastern MI at 988 MBS..What would this mean if this was to verify for the FA...Well we should see all snow from this system,however with strong intensification some warmer air may get pulled into parts of the FA for rain/snow.freezing rain mix before ending as snow....Also would mean a rather windy weekend on tap....This was a big change from it's 18z run....

Ok lets now look at the ECMWF model....

Starting with Monday also...ECMWF model has a 1005 MB low pressure over Northern WY..By Tuesday said low drops into Southwestern NE/Northwestern KS...On Wednesday this model bring the low into Southern West IA/Northeast KS then moves low Northeast to Eastern WI South of Green Bay on Thursday....By Friday said low is forecasted to be around Northeast part MI and deepens to around 1004 by this time frame....Looking into the weekend....ECMWF has dropped the storm system.on it's 00z run...Was still on it's 12z run..See forecast below on what the track was then....So what I did is run with ECWMF model,however did blend in some of GFS ensemble...Either way this extend forecast is tricky leading to a low confidence level....Reason I ran with more of the ECMWF is how good it did at forecasting the weather pattern we now have over head.Also for the most part the consistent of it's past runs....

We will have daily updates as next week is a major Holiday travel for lots of people..So be sure to check in everyday for the latest on what could be not one but twp possible snow storms to effect the area....