Thursday, September 13, 2012
Forecast for Western/Northwestern WI.
Areas of frost possible for tonight…A little warm up for the weekend….Cooling back down next week with off and on showers/storms…..Let us try to work all this out…..
Looking at the current vis satellite we see clearing skies across the FA, however we see more high clouds forming over in MN….
As of 11 am we see SFC OBS reporting fair/high clouds….Temps are in the lower 60s with winds calm to NW around 6 MPH….
***SHORT/MIDDLE TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION***
Today we see yesterday’s system well to our Southeast over Southern and Eastern WI….This did bring some much welcomed rain to the FA… Today we still could see a few ISO showers pop up from time to time….Should be far in between….Looks like the cooler pool of cold air aloft will set up just North of my FA today…..Tonight’s frost problem will be factored by a few things….1. if we can clear the skies off. 2. If we can get winds to stay light to calm all night. 3. If dewpoints remain low…..The only concern I have is models are showing partly cloudy skies for tonight, this will keep the good radiation cooling effect somewhat at bay…Do feel that areas of frost will be possible North of a HWY 48 line in Barron County, Polk County, and North of a HWY 8 line in Rusk County…..South of said lines… Thinking is Patchy frost is going to be less of a problem ATTM…Right now it appears this will not be a hard frost or a killing frost….Will watch trends throughout the day…Short term forecast will cover this if needed…..
Still will be cool for Friday, however WAA will slowly start to kick in…So we should see temps a few degrees warmer than today…Lows Friday night should hang around the upper 30s to lower 40s…So frost threat for Friday night looks null….
SFC winds from the Southwest/South will usher in warmer air for weekend…Highs on Saturday should top off in the middle 70s in my Central and Northern areas while upper 70s in my Southern areas….Sunday upper 70s over my Northern and Central areas, while my Southern areas could see temps either side of the 80 degree mark…..Will be a good weekend to get some yard work done, and or check out the fall colors…..Sunday night a cold front will push into the area…Looks like this will be the same setup we just got done going through…Showers and thunderstorms will be found just behind the cold front….Will carry the showers and thunderstorms to around the 10 – 11 AM hour of Monday….Temps will fall into the lower 60s for Monday….Monday night still may see a few showers around, However looks to be cloudy this will keep temps from hitting rock bottom…The same will hold for Tuesday and Tuesday night…If the clouds clear out on either of those nights we could be dealing with a hard frost/killing frost mainly in my Central and Northern areas….We will have to see how this plays out as we get closer to that time frame….
So to sun up the short/middle term…..Cold tonight cool tomorrow/ warming for the weekend/ than cold for the rest of the period….
***YOUR SHORT/MIDDLE TERM FORECAST***
TODAY. A few iso showers possible with partly cloudy skies. Highs 64 to 68…
TONIGHT. Partly cloudy lows ranging from the middle 30s North to around 40 South..Areas of frost possible North…Some patchy frost possible Central….
FRIDAY.Sunny highs around 70
FRIDAY NIGHT. Clear lows around 40.
Saturday through Sunday.Sunny highs in the 70s lows in the lower 50s….Chance of showers maybe a thunderstorm Sunday night.
Monday through Wednesday.Off and on clouds and Iso showers….Cold temps I the middle 50s to around 60…Lows in the upper 30s to around 40…See above for what could happen if we get clear skies at night…
***LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION (09/20 -09/29)***
This period starts off on the cold side then it warms up some by Tuesday the 25th ….
What is really interesting is the GFS model is showing a chance of rain/snow showers from the 20th through the 23rd… The 22 the GFS model shows a clipper like system dropping into the area with snow showers…. I would not be shocked to see this, but am having a hard time buying into this that far out….Something we will have to watch though….Temps from the 20th through the 23/24 will be cold 40s for highs lows in the 20s to 30.
After that we see a slight warming trend for the rest of the time frame…A chance of showers for 25 and the 28th with dry times in between….Highs should get back up to around normal lower to middle 60s with lows either side of 40…..
So to recap…
We start this time frame on the cold side and could even see our first snow/snowflakes of the fall…..Then we slowly warm backup to neat normal….