Wednesday, October 31, 2012

Forecast for Western/Northwestern WI.

No forecast problem seen right through Friday, however Friday night through Sunday morning we will have to deal with rain and snow….More on this later…..


As of 1 PM all station are reporting sunny skies, with temps in the lower 40s…Winds range from 7 to 12 MPH from the North/Northwest.


First off, looking at the satellite imagery We see that the remains of Sandy is slowly beginning to lose its grip on WI..As we see clouds have pushed backed into Eastern WI, However our local weather still remains locked for the rest of today….Tonight we should see a short wave drop into the area, clouds from this system already streaming into Northwestern and Western MN into the Central parts…..Am not expecting nothing more than a few clouds from this system tonight…Not a lot of moisture to work with, plus with all the dry air around, what little moisture that is available will go into cloud production…..After tonight look for another sunny to partly cloudy days…Temps will remain below normal through this period….
Confidence level very high.


REST OF TODAY… Sunny some high clouds, highs in the lower 40s.  North/Northwest winds will become lighter to around 5 to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT…Party to mostly cloudy, lows in the upper 20s winds becoming light from the North/Northwest.

THURSDAY… Mostly sunny, highs lower to middle 40s. North/Northwest winds from 5 to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT… Mostly clear lows lower 20s to middle 20s.

FRIDAY….Partly cloudy skies, with increasing clouds in the afternoon. Highs Lower 40s.


Low pressure system over the Northwestern Pacific Coastal area shows up rather nicely on the satellite….This will be our weather maker for Friday night through Sunday morning…..The low is forecasted to move into Northeastern part of WY by around 2100 Nov 1 That low is forecasted to Stay well South of the FA, however another area of low pressure is forecasted to form over Eastern MT/Western ND…This will push Southeast into Southeastern MN/Southwestern WI…This track would keep the best chance of snow North of a Twin Cities to Eau Claire line, meanwhile South of that line should remain all rain…May be some very light snow mixing in at the end in my Southern Counties, however don’t bet the farm on it….GFS model is showing from 2 to 4 inches of snow , with the higher amounts in Parts of Northern/Eastern Barron County along with parts of Western into Central Rusk County and point North….For now I will not running with any snow accumulations in the forecast, since there is still some model arguments going on with that….Looks like the best likely hood for snow will be Friday night into Late Saturday morning…Then just some flurries/light snow after that, however we will have to watch Saturday night/Sunday as an upper level low scoots into the area, this could bring a another chance of snow…Still too many things up in the air on that…..So for now I will end the snow Sunday morning/keeping most of Sunday on the dry side…..Will also only run with flurries/light snow….For Monday and Tuesday Look for Partly cloudy skies…Temps will be tricky, depending on if we get any snow accumulation…If we do temps will hold in the 30s to maybe as highs as the lower 40s…If we don’t temps could be as warn as the middle 40s to upper 40s for highs, while lows would remain in the 30s…..For now I will run with a average…Which will put temps below model guidance’s….
Confidence level mod to high, then falling to low by Monday and Tuesday.


FRIDAY NIGHT… Cloudy with rain/snow mix changing to all snow. Lows in the lower 30s falling into the middle to upper 20s.

SATURDAY… Cloudy with snow in the morning, then light snow/flurries in the afternoon…Highs middle 30s.

SATURDAY NIGHT… Cloudy with a chance of light snow/flurries, lows in the upper 20s.

SUNDAY… Light snow/flurries ending in the morning, Then just a chance of flurries in the afternoon. Highs middle 30s.

SUNDAY NIGHT… Mostly cloudy, lows in the middle to upper 20s.

MONDAY/MODNAY NIGHT…. Partly sunny highs lower 40s, clear partly cloudy Monday night, lows in middle 20s.

TUESDAY/TUEDAY night… Partly sunny highs middle 30s to upper 30s. Partly cloudy Tuesday night, lows in the middle 20s.


We will start this period on the dry side the dry weather should hold through the 9th. We will see a storm system digging into the Northeastern parts of CO this is forecasted to push a warm front through the area...We should see some rain showers as the 540 thickness line is well to our North in Canada. This low is forecasted to move into North Central NE by the 10th This will keep rain showers going right through the 10th by the 11th we see a cold front move through the area this will cause the rain to mix with and change over to all snow mainly over my Central and Northern areas, while my Southern areas see plain old rain. The 13 we still could see some light snow/flurries from wrap around moisture drops that drops South...The 14th looks to be dry, however that is short lived as another storm system takes shape over the Northeastern par of the TX Panhandle, along with a trough over the FA…Look for more snow to break out across the FA maybe even into my Southern area as well… By the 16th low pressure is forecasted to move in the Southern MO this will push warmer air back into my Southern areas so look for just rain down there, with a rain/snow mixture over my Central areas, while all snow in my Northern areas…

Temps through this time frame should be right around normal, no big warm-ups no big cold snaps….
By all means this long term forecast is not set in stone, long range models not evening close to each other....So with that said I'm sure this forecast will be changing within time.
Very low confidence level.