No forecast problem seen right through Friday, however Friday
night through Sunday morning we will have to deal with rain and snow….More on
this later…..
***CURRENT CONDITIONS***
As of 1 PM all station are reporting sunny skies, with temps
in the lower 40s…Winds range from 7 to 12 MPH from the North/Northwest.
***SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION (REST OF TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY)***
First off, looking at the satellite imagery We see that the remains
of Sandy is slowly beginning to lose its grip on WI..As we see clouds have
pushed backed into Eastern WI, However our local weather still remains locked
for the rest of today….Tonight we should see a short wave drop into the area,
clouds from this system already streaming into Northwestern and Western MN into
the Central parts…..Am not expecting nothing more than a few clouds from this
system tonight…Not a lot of moisture to work with, plus with all the dry air
around, what little moisture that is available will go into cloud production…..After
tonight look for another sunny to partly cloudy days…Temps will remain below
normal through this period….
Confidence level very high.
***YOUR SHORT TERM FORECAST***
REST OF TODAY… Sunny some high clouds, highs in the lower
40s. North/Northwest winds will become
lighter to around 5 to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT…Party to mostly cloudy, lows in the upper 20s winds
becoming light from the North/Northwest.
THURSDAY… Mostly sunny, highs lower to middle 40s.
North/Northwest winds from 5 to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT… Mostly clear lows lower 20s to middle 20s.
FRIDAY….Partly cloudy skies, with increasing clouds in the
afternoon. Highs Lower 40s.
***MIDDLE TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY)***
Low pressure system over the Northwestern Pacific Coastal
area shows up rather nicely on the satellite….This will be our weather maker
for Friday night through Sunday morning…..The low is forecasted to move into
Northeastern part of WY by around 2100 Nov 1 That low is forecasted to Stay
well South of the FA, however another area of low pressure is forecasted to
form over Eastern MT/Western ND…This will push Southeast into Southeastern MN/Southwestern
WI…This track would keep the best chance of snow North of a Twin Cities to Eau
Claire line, meanwhile South of that line should remain all rain…May be some
very light snow mixing in at the end in my Southern Counties, however don’t bet
the farm on it….GFS model is showing from 2 to 4 inches of snow , with the
higher amounts in Parts of Northern/Eastern Barron County along with parts of
Western into Central Rusk County and point North….For now I will not running
with any snow accumulations in the forecast, since there is still some model arguments
going on with that….Looks like the best likely hood for snow will be Friday
night into Late Saturday morning…Then just some flurries/light snow after that,
however we will have to watch Saturday night/Sunday as an upper level low
scoots into the area, this could bring a another chance of snow…Still too many
things up in the air on that…..So for now I will end the snow Sunday
morning/keeping most of Sunday on the dry side…..Will also only run with
flurries/light snow….For Monday and Tuesday Look for Partly cloudy skies…Temps
will be tricky, depending on if we get any snow accumulation…If we do temps
will hold in the 30s to maybe as highs as the lower 40s…If we don’t temps could
be as warn as the middle 40s to upper 40s for highs, while lows would remain in
the 30s…..For now I will run with a average…Which will put temps below model guidance’s….
Confidence level mod to high, then falling to low by Monday and Tuesday.
***YOUR MIDDLE TERM FORECAST***
FRIDAY NIGHT… Cloudy with rain/snow mix changing to all
snow. Lows in the lower 30s falling into the middle to upper 20s.
SATURDAY… Cloudy with snow in the morning, then light
snow/flurries in the afternoon…Highs middle 30s.
SATURDAY NIGHT… Cloudy with a chance of light snow/flurries,
lows in the upper 20s.
SUNDAY… Light snow/flurries ending in the morning, Then just
a chance of flurries in the afternoon. Highs middle 30s.
SUNDAY NIGHT… Mostly cloudy, lows in the middle to upper
20s.
MONDAY/MODNAY NIGHT…. Partly sunny highs lower 40s, clear
partly cloudy Monday night, lows in middle 20s.
TUESDAY/TUEDAY night… Partly sunny highs middle 30s to upper
30s. Partly cloudy Tuesday night, lows in the middle 20s.
***LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION WED NOV 7TH
THROUGH FRIDAY NOV 16TH ***
We will start this period on the dry side the dry weather
should hold through the 9th. We will see a storm system digging into
the Northeastern parts of CO this is forecasted to push a warm front through
the area...We should see some rain showers as the 540 thickness line is well to
our North in Canada. This low is forecasted to move into North Central NE by the
10th This will keep rain showers going right through the 10th
by the 11th we see a cold front move through the area this will
cause the rain to mix with and change over to all snow mainly over my Central
and Northern areas, while my Southern areas see plain old rain. The 13 we still
could see some light snow/flurries from wrap around moisture drops that drops
South...The 14th looks to be dry, however that is short lived as
another storm system takes shape over the Northeastern par of the TX Panhandle,
along with a trough over the FA…Look for more snow to break out across the FA
maybe even into my Southern area as well… By the 16th low pressure
is forecasted to move in the Southern MO this will push warmer air back into my
Southern areas so look for just rain down there, with a rain/snow mixture over
my Central areas, while all snow in my Northern areas…
Temps through this time frame should be right around normal,
no big warm-ups no big cold snaps….
By all means this long term forecast is not set in stone, long range models not evening close to each other....So with that said I'm sure this forecast will be changing within time.
Very low confidence level.
