Friday, October 22, 2010

Watching the middle of next week closely

Still watching the possibility of a major snow storm close to home for the middle part of next week. Our long dry spell is about to come to an end this weekend..So lots to talk about this morning….


This morning we are greeted to temp in the upper 20s to lower 30s..Cold spot is HYR coming in at 23.Winds are rather light out of the South… Satellite showing clear skis, though one would not need a satellite to figure that out….


Models are in rather good agreement in the short term….A little placement problems here and there…. 1017 MB high pressure centered over Southwest WI/Northeast IA/Northeast IA this morning is forecasted to drift into the TN valley, Winds have already backed to the South.. Mean while a 1006 MB low pressure is forecasted to move into Central MT… WAA is forecasted to really crank up this afternoon between these two features…. Highs should have no problem getting into the lower 60s.. Would not be surprised to see some middle 60s in my Southern Central areas along with my Southern areas…Northern areas should top off in the upper 50s to right around 60….Tonight we start to see an upper level low eject out of the Southwest CONUS along with it’s SFC low pressure…All this should do is increase the clouds…Also will with the cloud cover on the increase temps should remain warmer that last night’s temps… SFC lows pushes Northeast wards to Southern NE.. Moisture will be on the increase which in return will lead to showers. Can’t rule out one or two thunderstorms over my Southern areas..Will have to watch to see if thunder wording is need more North tomorrow… SFC low washes out over Southern MN/Northern IA however will still keep rain alive for Sunday night….We get a break in the action late Sunday night into early Monday morning before the next system plows into the area… Here is where things start to get a little tricky… GFS show a 982 MB low pressure riding the US/Canada border by Tuesday GFS has said low over far Northwestern MN and deepens it to around 980 MBS early Tuesday morning, meanwhile GFS shows a trof of low pressure over OK/KS area….Moisture will not be a problem streaming into the FA as the GOM is wide open for business. By Tuesday night GFS pushes said low towards Thunderbay Canada and deepens it more down to around 966 MBS at the same time is pushes a cold front into and through the area.. By late Wednesday night /early Thurs morning GFS has said low over Southern Hudson Bay area…With wrap around moisture see no reason not to keep a chance of precip going through Thurs… By then enough cold air should be over head for rain/snow from Wed night into Thurs….

Lets take a looks at the ECMWF model…

Here we see a 987 MB lower over the ND/Canada border on Tuesday by Wed ECMWF pushes the low to over Lake Superior and bombs it out to 966 MBS so ECWMF is a tad slower and more South with the low pressure… This model also shows an 984 MB low pressure over Southern KS this low gets pulled into the Northern low while GFS has it as a trof and pulls it Northeast into said low… so timing and placement are still off on the models as we see the flip flopping game has began… Models are also showing warmer air with this system as hinted in last night’s forecast discussion.

We will have to keep a close eye on how all this is going to play out as it still has the makings of a major winter storm close to if not in the FA…. Either way it will be windy system…. Gales looking more likely on Lake Superior Tuesday through Wed night…. Enough cold air should be drawn South to at least have rain mixing if not changing to some snow showers attm… Again this is all subject to change….So stay tuned as we play flip flop the forecast for the middle part of next week, over the next two days….