Saturday, October 16, 2010

The forecast for Western/Northwestern WI

Back to cooler temps for the short term and most of the extended forecast..Problems today shall be the winds…Have decided to go higher than thought yesterday as models are more in line with that will talk about that in a few….


At the 7 AM hour we find temps mainly in the upper 30s to lower 40s across the FA….Satellite imagery is showing a band of clouds through Northern MN down to Southwest MN through NE…..This is also confirmed by SFC OBS…Winds this morning are still rather light out of the Southeast ranging from calm to around 7 MPH……Skies are PC to clear for now…. Radar is showing a few returns in North Central MN with the dry air in place its highly unlikely anything is reaching the ground… SFC OBS show no precip….


Cold front in Central MN will race East/Southeast this morning….Winds will start to pick up from the Southwest just ahead of said front before switching to the West/Northwest….Once cold front pushes through winds will become gusty with gusts from the 25 to as high as 30 MPH through out much of the FA.. Will see a period of clouds as the front moves through not looking at any rain, however a few sprinkles at best may be possible along the frontal boundary..Highly unlikey with dry air in place…. 1022 MB high pressure builds into the area after front clear… Winds will become light to calm this will allow temps to fall into the lower 30s across much of the area, frost is a likely bet for tonight…Sunday high pressure remains in control of our weather,however models showing another frontal boundary moving into the area for Sunday night into early Monday morning… Moisture is lacking so not buying into rain chances as models have it… Even if it does happen amounts would be so light… So nothing there to get excited about….Looking into Tuesday still looks dry with temps in the 50s lows in the 30s….


Problems still showing up on the Tuesday night/Wednesday time frame…

GFS still wants to bring down colder air into the FA…. Still shows LES across the snow belt areas of WI..Even by Thursday night GFS wants to bring snow as far South into my Northern Central FA…. I’m just not buying into this… ECMWF keeps column profile rather warm and near SFC temps to warm for snow….Will run with a dry forecast for my whole FA ATTM…. As ECMWF model has it…..Temps are forecast to mainly be in the 50s, however by weeks end temps show a warming trend into the upper 50s to lower 60s…. By Monday the 26 we see another system moving into the area this could bring a chance of rain back into the FA..GFS still wants to drag the 540 thickness line South throughout my Northwestern areas into my Central areas Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning if this does happen we could be dealing with our first snowfall of the season ..It does not appear to be anything big ATTM, but something we will be watching…Halloween looks dry as of right now…..This is so far out in time I sure would not bet the farm on it…..