Friday, February 8, 2013

Enjoy today and tomorrow, the foot is about to drop on us….This forecast package will talk mainly about the pending major winter storm to plow through the area this late weekend and into Monday……For those who follow me on Facebook know I have been already forecasting this storm…..


The FA will be controlled by a 1028/1029 MB high pressure today through much of the day Saturday…..Meanwhile a major winter storm will be start to pound the Northeastern states……A 998 MB low pressure system off the Coast of NC is forecasted to move Along the Eastern Coast line…This will combined with the Alberta clipper that came through the area the other day…..This will be one of the biggest winter storms the that people have seen along the Eastern CONUS….You ask why am I talking about this, well this could have some impacts on our local weather...If that storm out East slows down at all, this will mean our late weekend system will slow down…..This could do two things for us….1. it could delay our system(highly unlikely) 2. It could give us more snow than what we are forecasting(which could happen)….

Onto the details of our Major winter storm….

One can easily see this monster forming over the central Rockies on the WV satellite imagery…..Now most models have been having a hard time with this system, GFS and NAM were way to far West and North with this system….This morning NAM is still too far West and North…..GFS has started to shift it’s thinking South somewhat yesterday…Even a little more in this morning’s update…..EC has had the same track since this storm system showed up on it…..So this forecast package will set around EC with a little blending of GFS/FLM/GEM….I have thrown out NAM all together, and for the most part GFS, though will use some of the members………1016 MB low pressure over Central CO is forecasted to move into Northern IA and deepen t0 992 MBS, and through Central WI then Moving into Northeastern WI than into the Northeastern part of the UP of MI…..Map below…
With the low forecasted to deepen rather fast this will allow for a windy system which will cause blowing and drifting snows…..Not only from the new snow that is forecasted, but the last few snow events have been a dry fluffy type of snow….So with all that combined look for near to whiteout conditions to form on Sunday….Now places such as Eau Claire may hardly see much in the way of wind, as the low passes nearly overhead…..This system will have a lot of moisture to work with along with lift….There should be enough instabilities to produce some thundersnow North of Eau Claire…..While a few thunderstorms are possible to the South of Eau Claire…Ok moving on, as many are asking, so how much snow will fall and where will it fall…..For this I use the map below…..As of right now kept the real heavy snow over in MN, but the snow in WI be heavy also……This map could change as we may need to shift the heavier snow Eastwards more than currently forecasted…..Main player here is where the deformation band decide to setup, along with any convection cells. Thermal profiles for the most part show enough cold air aloft to all snow….There may be some wintery mix at the start, but this shouldn’t be a problem as the column cools off fast…..This would be North of Chippewa falls…….Wintery mix is forecasted South of there down to Eau Claire, with mainly all rain South of there….As the system pulls of to the Northeast snow will mix in and change over to all snow, however by then the dynamics will have also moved out…So not excepting much snow South of Eau Claire…..Here is our snowfall forecast amounts…..Again we may need to push the heavier snow fall further East wards…….