Thursday, February 21, 2013
Forecast concerns…..Well there really isn’t any…..Still looks like we shall see 4 to 5 inches of snow for my FA…..Temps will begin to warm….We are watching another storm system for the beginning of next week…More on all this coming up…..
Mostly to partly cloudy skies blanket the FA....Temps range from 10 to 18 degrees....Winds NE from clam to around 7 MPH....
***FORECAST DISCUSSION TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY***
First off lets talk about the over hype snowstorm for Southern MN into WI…..Well like I said over hype here, is the real forecast for the MN and WI….Looking at all the computer models we do see NAM is still the main outlier….It has way to much precip across MN and WI….ECMWF/has had the best handle on this system while GFS/GEM/SREF have come into agreement …Though they weren’t a day ago like some would like you to think…..
Low pressure over Western TX Panhandle is forecasted to slowly work East/slightly Northeast into MO then it’s forecasted to move into Northeastern IL, then North up into the UP of MI…..Normally a storm track of such would bring the area heavy snow…..This is not the case….1. the storm is forecasted to weaken as is moves Northeast….2 the area is still under a dry flow from a high pressure over Hudson Bay….3 strong to severe thunderstorms along a cold front will be moving East which will help Cut off the moisture supply from the GOM…4 the system has slowed down which will give it time to weaken more before it hits MN/WI….With all that said yes we will still see some snow the heaviest will fall in NE/IA KS/MO…Also noted there should be ice in Southern MO depending on how fast the warm air moves into those areas….With the system weaken or fills in this will be a long lasting light snow event this is why I have snowfall amount as they are…(See map).Snow will becoming to an end Saturday morning across the FA….No cold air behind this system so temp should be either side of normal this weekend….
On to the next system on tap for Sunday night/Tuesday….
This system seems to behave like the one set to move through the area tomorrow….Low will be weaken as it pushes towards the area…Computer models are all over the place with timing and the track of the system….ECMWF seems to have the best handle on it while GFS is slowly coming to terms with ECMWF….This system could be more of a wintry mix down in Southern MN and WI while all snow in my FA….As of right now not to excited about this until models get into a better agreement on how things shall play out…..Kind of pointless and useless attm…..