Forecast dis for Western and Northwestern WI

Forecast problems.....There are many near,middle,and long term....Will see if we can work them out....First problem will be today and then Sunday.....Then the biggest problem will come into play Wednesday through Friday when a major snow storm could effect the area Christmas eve through Christmas day (morning)....So this forecast discussion is one big headache.....


Lets try to hash out the problem for Sunday...

SFC ANALYSIS...

Weather charts show one big power house of a storm system over SC/NC coast line....High pressure rules the Western states WV imagery showing a shortwave up in Canada...

TODAY....

Problems will be with the low clouds and light areas of freezing precip....That should end sometime this morning...Clouds should remain in place through out the day,however would not be surprised to see some sunshine peaking out here and there this afternoon,this will lead to another problem with temps....Right now am going to have temps in the middle 20s South and lower 20s Central and North...With that said anyone spot that is able to see any amount of sunshine temps could be a few degrees warmer....

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.....

By 12z today we will see the shortwave working Southwards in Alberta CN....Meantime a 982 MB major power house storm system is forecasted to of the far Northern NC coast line..By 18z today our shortwave should be in Southern Alberta...While the major nor'easter still gathering strength over the far Northern coast line of NC..By 00z Sunday we see our weather system moving into Northwest ND....Major nor'easter should be deepen to around 988 MBS as it heads North along the Eastern coast line....By 12z Sunday we will find the shortwave centered over Eastern ND/Western MN....The main story will be the major coast line storm system...This thing deepens to around 976-980 MBS.....This may lead to problem with our little system...If the Eastern storm system is slower to move this would lead to a slower movement of our system,hence will delay the snow by a few hours....System really does not have a good amount of moisture with it...So will be hard to nail down snow amounts....However Am going to run with one to two inches of snow...Another problem is where will this snow fall....That is still some what up in the air....One model keeps the snow out to the West over in MN,while another model shows the snow to fall from Eastern MN into my forecast area...So this would lead one to think 1 to 2 inches of snow looks likely some where in my forecast area....Will try to nail to this down later with another model run or so....the 06z run may not give much more light..Will see what the 12z runs shows...Nevertheless this will not be a big deal for the area..

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY....

Weather should be rather peaceful.....Some what cooler air will spill back into the area behind the departing shortwave....This will cause temps to fall to around the lower single digits for Mon night....WAA kicks back in on Tuesday..so temps are forecasted to be in the lower to middle 20s once again...Good time to get out and enjoy all the snow as really temps won't be that cold......

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.....

First off my confidence level is low on this time frame,as models have been and still are all over the place with what may be a major snowstorm for the forecast area....

So with the model data I have in front of me this morning this now what is forecasted....First off the bat lets look at the ECMWF model......

00z run shows a 1003 MBS low pressure getting it's act going over AZ on Wednesday....This low is forecasted to move into Southern OK/Northern TX...Then the low is forecasted to lift North/Northeast into SW MO and deepen to around 996 MBS...Then it is forecasted to lift Northeast to around the NE IL area.....If this track does turn out parts of my FA could end up with a good amount of snow...Looks like this will be another win jammer of a system....Now with that all said and done...ECMWF has been changing this track on just about all it's runs....So this system could end up being more North by time we get to Tuesday....That day will be the make it or break it day.....

Second out of the gate is the GFS model....

This model keep the storm system well to our South on it's 00z run...If that plays out we won't have to worry about this system effecting the forecast area.....However looking back at GFS 12z run this model did have the system more North,almost the same track as ECWMF....The latest 06z run GFS has this system still way South....

So as you can see this system is playing havoc on the models....There has been no consistency what so ever....Though ECMWF has showing more than GFS....So with this in mind and this model leading the way so far this winter will lean towards it....So best areas to see significant snowfall amounts would be Eastern MN and Western WI.for the eve of Dec 24 and Christmas morning...That is if ECWMF pans outs....Way to early to even think about nailing down snowfall amounts...The only reason I brought it up is this is the biggest holiday travel time...So people will want to keep up with the latest on this possible major winter storm that may effect my forecast area of WI....