Forecast discussion still will focus of the powerful winter storm to effect the area starting Wednesday afternoon,with the main area of snow moving in Wednesday night and lasting through Friday night...With a chance of some light snow for Saturday.....Some problems have creep into the forecast which could pose some problems for the FA depending if ECMWF verifies.....


Looking at the ECMWF....

ECMWF has shifted the low pressure more Northwest now....Track would be from OK up to North Central IA then right over head....If this track pans out parts of the forecast area could see more of a wintery mix,as warmer air aloft gets pulled into parts of the area..If this the case this will pull total storm totals down....This model still has the pressure readings down to 994 as it works into WI,however by time it reaches over head storm weakens to around 1005 MBS...Nevertheless this system still looks to be a wind jammer....Thinking is as of right now ECMWF has the track to far Northwest compared to the rest of the forecast models.....

Let look at GFS...

GFS has the low tracking from Eastern OK up into Southwest IA then through Central WI...If this is the case less wintery mix would occur over parts of the forecast area....Hence more snowfall.....GFS keeps the storm system rather deep,from 990 MBS as it pushes towards IA then 999 MBS as it pushes into IA...By time it moves through WI the low is forecasted to deepen back to around 996 MBS..

Looking at the NAM model....

Nam as the same thinking as GFS..with about the same track and same strength....

So as you can see there are still a few problems with the track,however Am going to combined all said models above.....Models are pointing at higher QPF with this system...This will also be a long lasting storm...Waves of snow will be effecting area from Wed through Friday night,and lighter snows may last into Saturday....Am still think a widespread 8 + inches with a large area of 12 + inches of snow....Still thinking some areas could pick u close to 2 feet of snow by time all is said and down.....Winds will become a major player also causing a lot of blowing and drifting snow,even with the high moisture content of the snow....See below for more info on this dangerous winter storm....